11/2015. Outline. Commodity Outlook: Livestock & Grain Markets

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1 Commodity Outlook: Livestock & Grain Markets Stephen R. Koontz Professor & extension economist Department of Agricultural & Resource Economics Colorado State University Brush, Colorado November, 2015 Outline Cattle & Beef Hogs & Pork Dairy Corn & Forage Oilseeds Wheat Inputs & Land Values Short term & Long term Price Outlook Commodity Market Outlook Summary Cattle No more record high prices & more numbers. Hogs plentiful & trouble on horizon. Dairy plentiful & also trouble on horizon. Corn Good crop, demand issues, & future acres? Hay low quality is plentiful. Oilseeds Good crop and more next year? Wheat Great forecasted crop & trouble. Inputs Soft as ever. 1

2 Weekly Live Cattle Contract Monthly Live Cattle Contract This market is looking for a bottom trading range $ /cwt. $170 Weekly Feeder Cattle Contract Monthly Feeder Cattle Contract This market will drift lower trading range $ /cwt. $240 2

3 Cattle Outlook Fed cattle market will trend down: Domestic demand was strong. International demand and trade are weak. Competing meats. Feeder cattle and calf prices will weaken for the next several years: Herd building. Cheaper feed is & will be mismanaged. USDA Quarterly Cattle Price Forecasts Date Fed Cattle 7 800# Feeder 5 600# Calf 2015: VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ : I $ $ $ : II $ $ $ : III $ $ $ : VI $ $ $ Mil. Head CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Mil. Head FEEDLOT PLACEMENTS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-10 10/23/15 Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-08 10/23/15 3

4 Mil. Head 2.1 FED CATTLE MARKETINGS US Total, Monthly Mil. Head 6.5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 90 DAYS US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-M-11 10/23/15 Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-11 10/23/15 Mil. Head 5 CATTLE ON FEED OVER 120 DAYS US Total, Monthly DEC 2015 Live Cattle Contract JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2009/ Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-N-12 10/23/15 4

5 NOV 2015 Feeder Cattle Contract Thou. Head CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 375 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-08 10/30/15 Thou. Head STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly 200 Thou. Head HEIFER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-17 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-13 10/30/15 5

6 Pounds 950 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Federally Inspected, Weekly Pounds 1370 LIVE WEIGHT STEER AND HEIFER Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle Area, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-18 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-26 10/30/15 Thou. Head 20 CALF SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 90 BEEF COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-32 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-34 10/30/15 6

7 Thou. Head 75 DAIRY COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head 150 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-35 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS C-S-14 10/30/15 Mil. Pounds 2400 COMMERCIAL BEEF PRODUCTION Monthly Mil. Pounds 2250 COMMERCIAL PORK PRODUCTION Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 1650 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS M-S-02 10/22/15 Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC M-S-05 10/22/15 7

8 Mil. Pounds BEEF IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Mil. Pounds PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-09 10/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS M-S-10 10/22/15 Mil. Pounds CHICKEN IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Mil. Pounds TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-05 10/22/15 Data Source: USDA/NASS P-S-04 10/22/15 8

9 APR 2016 Live Cattle Contract MAR 2016 Feeder Cattle Contract Cents Per Pound 650 RETAIL BEEF PRICE All Fresh, Monthly Cents Per Pound 440 RETAIL PORK PRICE Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV 300 JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 10/15/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-05 10/15/15 9

10 Cents Per Pound RETAIL CHICKEN PRICE Whole Fresh, Monthly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Cents Per Pound RETAIL PRICE COMPARISON Monthly Retail Pork Price Retail Chicken Price, Whole Fresh Retail Beef Price Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-06 10/15/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics & USDA ERS M-P-11 10/15/15 $ Per 1000 lbs LIVE TO CUTOUT BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC $ Per 1000 lbs CUTOUT TO RETAIL BEEF PRICE SPREAD Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-02 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-04 11/02/15 10

11 $ Per Cwt 200 CHOICE STEER PRICE vs BREAKEVEN Cattle Feeding, S. Plains, Monthly $ Per Steer 200 AVERAGE RETURNS TO CATTLE FEEDERS Feeding 750 Lb. Steers. S. Plains, Monthly Latest Data: October Latest Data: October Steer Price Breakeven Projected Breakeven Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-21 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA NASS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-22 11/02/15 $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES 5 Market Weighted Average, Weekly $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled and Analysis by LMIC C-P-49 11/02/15 11

12 $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-54 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-49A 11/02/15 $ Per Cwt. 280 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt. 16 CHOICE MINUS SELECT BEEF PRICES Carcass Cutout Value Lbs., Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-62 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC C-P-68 11/02/15 12

13 $ Per Cwt STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly $ Per Cwt SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 90% Lean, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-39 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS C-P-35 11/02/15 Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly Cents Per Pound WHOLESALE BEEF LOIN STRIP PRICES Boneless 0x1, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-21 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS 11/02/15 13

14 Cents Per Pound 1400 WHOLESALE BEEF FULL TENDER PRICES Musl On, 5 Pounds and Up, Weekly Cents Per Pound 350 WHOLESALE BEEF CHUCK PRICES Boneless 2 Piece, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-23 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS 11/02/15 WHOLESALE BEEF BOTTOM ROUND PRICES Pounds, Weekly Cents Per Pound 325 Cents Per Pound 320 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 90% Lean, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-22 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-24 11/02/15 14

15 Cents Per Pound 170 WHOLESALE BONELESS BEEF PRICES Fresh, 50% Lean, Weekly Cents Per Pound 160 WHOLESALE HAM PRICES Trimmed Selected, Pounds, Weekly Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-25 11/02/15 Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-27 11/02/15 Cents Per Pound 200 WHOLESALE PORK LOIN PRICES ¼ Inch Trim, Vacuum Sealed, Weekly Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: USDA AMS M-P-28 11/02/15 Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 15

16 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Fourth Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX First Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Second Quarter, Using CPI 1990=100 Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Third Quarter, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 16

17 Cattle & Beef Going Forward? Tight numbers but mismanaged. Strong demand but cannot strengthen. Strong dollar & weak trade. Herd expansion, increased future production, & normal feeding costs. Pressured by pork & poultry prices MT US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly Jan 13 Jan 14 Jan 15 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS 11/05/ MT US EXPORTS OF PORK MUSCLE CUTS Weekly 3/29/14 9/27/14 4/4/15 10/3/15 Japan Mexico Korea Rep. Canada Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA APHIS 11/05/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-15 11/05/15 17

18 Mil. Pounds US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mil. Pounds US NET BEEF IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-16 11/05/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-31 11/05/15 Mil. Pounds US PORK IMPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mil. Pounds US PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-29 11/05/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-30 11/05/15 18

19 Mil. Pounds US NET PORK EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mil. Pounds US BEEF EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-32 11/05/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-37 11/05/15 Mil. Pounds US PORK EXPORTS TO JAPAN Carcass Weight, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Mil. Pounds MAJOR US BEEF EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual Japan Canada Mexico Korea Avg. 2008/ Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS I-N-38 11/05/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-18 02/25/15 19

20 Mil. Pounds MAJOR US PORK EXPORT MARKETS Carcass Weight, Annual Japan Canada Mexico Other Avg. 2008/ Mil. Pounds MAJOR US BEEF IMPORT SOURCES Carcass Weight, Annual Australia New Zealand Canada Mexico Avg. 2008/ Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-19 02/25/15 Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-36 02/25/15 Bil. $ US BEEF INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Variety Meats Tallow & Greases Bil. $ US BEEF INDUSTRY IMPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Variety Meats Tallow & Greases Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-70 02/25/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-71 02/25/15 20

21 Bil. $ US BEEF INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Beef & Veal Hides & Skins Tallow, Grease & Var Meat Total Bil. $ US PORK INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Hogs Sausage Casings & Variety Meats Hog & Pork Skins Pork & Sausages Lard, Oils, & Other fats Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-72 02/25/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-73 02/25/15 Bil. $ 2.5 US PORK INDUSTRY IMPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ 6 US PORK INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Hogs Pork & Sausages Sausage Casings & Variety Meats Lard, Oils, & Other fats Hog & Pork Skins Live Hogs Pork & Sausages Other Items Total Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-74 02/25/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC I-N-75 02/25/15 21

22 Mil. Head JANUARY 1 TOTAL COW INVENTORY U.S., Annual Mil. Head CALF CROP July Estimates, U.S., Annual 2015 = 34.3 Million Head +1.2 Percent Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-02A 07/28/15 Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-18B 07/28/15 Mil. Head 7.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS January 1, U.S. Mil. Head 6.0 HEIFERS HELD AS BEEF COW REPLACEMENTS July 1, U.S % % Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-38 07/28/15 Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-37 07/28/15 22

23 Mil. Head 135 TOTAL CATTLE INVENTORY BY CYCLE U.S., January 1 3 PERCENT CHANGE IN CATTLE INVENTORY U.S., January Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-40 07/28/15 Data Source: USDA NASS, Analysis by LMIC C-N-48 07/28/15 $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF RETURNS Returns Over Cash Cost (Includes Pasture Rent), Annual $ Per Cow ESTIMATED AVERAGE COW CALF COSTS Total Cash Cost Plus Pasture Rent, Annual Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC C-P-66 09/24/15 Data Source: USDA & LMIC, Compiled by LMIC 09/24/15 23

24 Cattle Outlook Expansion this year and next and next. Reasonable feed costs. Worst case scenario softening demand & strong competing meat production hard fall this year. Best case scenario last year was it not again need to see increased trade. USDA Quarterly Hog Price Forecasts Date Price 2015: VI $ : I $ : II $ : III $ : VI $ : I $ : II $ : III $ : VI $60 70 Weekly Lean Hog Contract LIVE TO CUTOUT (MPR 2013) PORK PRICE SPREAD Monthly $ Per Head JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC H-P-07 10/15/15 24

25 $ Per Head LIVE TO RETAIL PORK PRICE SPREAD Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC $/Head IOWA MARKET HOG PROFIT Farrow/Finish, Monthly Latest Data: September Data Source: USDA AMS & USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC H-P-11 10/15/15 Data Source: Iowa State University 10/15/15 Thou. Head BARROW AND GILT SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Monthly Thou. Head 280 SOW SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC 210 JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA NASS H-S-01 10/22/15 Data Source: USDA NASS H-S-02 10/22/15 25

26 Pounds 221 AVG DRESSED WEIGHT HOGS Federally Inspected, Monthly Mil. Head 65 SEPTEMBER 1 MARKET HOGS U.S. Inventory (Prior to 1988 Estimated) JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA NASS H-S-27 10/22/15 Data Source: USDA NASS H-N-13 09/25/15 Mil. Head JUNE AUGUST PIG CROP U.S Mil. Head HOGS KEPT FOR BREEDING Quarterly Data Source: USDA NASS H-N-36 09/25/15 Data Source: USDA NASS H-N-55 09/25/15 26

27 Mil. Head 32 PIG CROP Quarterly Head 10.7 PIGS PER LITTER Quarterly Data Source: USDA NASS H-N-57 09/25/15 Data Source: USDA NASS H-N-58 09/25/15 DEC 2015 Lean Hog Contract Hog Outlook Reasonable feed cost & good margins. Expansion Hog producers just cannot stand prosperity. Ron Plain, Univ. of Missouri. Worst case scenario expansion & supply chain problems DEC 16? Best case scenario expanded trade & limited expansion this is a possibility. 27

28 USDA Quarterly Dairy Price Forecasts Weekly Class III Milk Contract Date Class III All Milk 2015: VI $ $ : I $ $ : II $ $ : III $ $ : VI $ $ : I $ $ : II $ $ : III $ $ : VI $ $ $ Per Pound CHEDDAR CHEESE PRICES 500 Pound Block, US, Weekly $ Per Pound BUTTER PRICES US, Weekly Data Source: USDA NASS 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA NASS 10/30/15 28

29 $ Per Pound NONFAT DRY MILK PRICES US, Weekly $ Per Pound DRY WHEY PRICES US, Weekly Data Source: USDA NASS 10/30/15 Data Source: USDA NASS 10/30/15 $ Per Pound CLASS III MILK PRICES FMMO, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec $ Per Pound MILK-FEED PRICE RATIO US, Monthly Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Data Source: USDA AMS, Dairy Market News 10/15/15 Data Source: USDA NASS 10/15/15 29

30 Thou. Head DAIRY COW INVENTORY US Total, Monthly Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Pounds MILK PRODUCED PER COW US Total, Monthly Sequestration suspended data from March to July of 2013 from USDA-NASS. These graphs use LMIC estimates during this time. JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Data Source: USDA NASS 10/21/15 Data Source: USDA NASS 10/21/15 Bil. Pounds MILK PRODUCTION US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC DEC 2015 Class III Milk Contract Data Source: USDA NASS 10/21/15 30

31 $ per lb $2.30 $2.10 $1.90 $1.70 $1.50 $1.30 $1.10 OCEANIA BUTTER Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg $ per lb $2.50 $2.30 $2.10 $1.90 $1.70 $1.50 $1.30 $1.10 $0.90 $0.70 $0.50 OCEANIA SKIM MILK POWDER Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 $ per lb $2.50 $2.25 $2.00 $1.75 $1.50 $1.25 OCEANIA CHEDDAR CHEESE Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg $ per lb $2.65 $2.45 $2.25 $2.05 $1.85 $1.65 $1.45 $1.25 $1.05 EUROPE BUTTER Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 31

32 $ per lb $3.20 $2.70 $2.20 $1.70 $1.20 $0.70 EUROPE SKIM MILK POWDER Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg $ per lb $0.70 $0.65 $0.60 $0.55 $0.50 $0.45 $0.40 $0.35 $0.30 $0.25 EUROPE WHEY POWDER Biweekly JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP OCT DEC Avg Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 Data Source: USDA AMS 10/15/15 Bil. $ 6.0 US DAIRY INDUSTRY EXPORT VALUES Annual Bil. $ 2.4 US DAIRY INDUSTRY IMPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 03/09/15 Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 03/09/15 32

33 Bil. $ US DAIRY INDUSTRY NET EXPORT VALUES Annual Live Cattle Milk,Crm&Pwdr Whey Nat Mlk Butter Cheese Casein Total Dairy Outlook Reasonable feed costs led to expansion. International market has had real problems over the past year. When does it land here? Worst case scenario weakening whey market is harbinger. Best case scenario contract herd (look at price outlook) & better trade news. Data Source: USDA FAS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 03/09/15 33

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36 Weekly Corn Contract $8.00 $5.00 The trading range for corn is $3.00-$4.50/bu. Except 36

37 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $150 $35 $40-$60 37

38 Weekly Gasoline Contract 38

39 DEC 2015 Corn Contract Forecast $ /bu 39

40 DEC 2016 Corn Contract Corn Outlook Forecast $ /bu Market price is very much aligned with where fundamentals say it should be. Acreage next year? Rotation? Cash flow & debt? Demand? Trade? Storage? Price outlook $3.85 $4.15/bu. And we ve had the three big crops. $ /bu. 40

41 Mil. Tons 120 US ALL HAY STOCKS December Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-22 08/12/15 41

42 Mil. Tons 30 US ALL HAY STOCKS May 1 (Beginning of Crop Year) PERCENT CHANGE ALFALFA HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 4.4% Data Source: USDA NASS, Compiled & Forecasts by LMIC G-NP-21 08/12/15 Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015 PERCENT CHANGE OTHER HAY ACRES ( ) PERCENT CHANGE ALL HAY ACRES ( ) U.S. Total: 4% U.S. Total: 1% Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/2015 Data Source: USDA-NASS 2/2/

43 GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Oct USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to last week, market activity is slow with prices steady on light demand. Trading continues to be spotty. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Supreme ; Premium/Supreme DEL; Premium ; Utility Small Squares: Supreme (10.00 per bale). Grass Small Squares: Premium ( per bale). Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Fair Small Squares: Good Alfalfa/Grass Mix Large Squares: Premium Timothy Grass Large Squares: Good San Luis Valley Area Alfalfa Large Squares: Supreme Southwest Colorado Areas No reported quotes from all other classes of hay. Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas Grass Large Squares: Good Small Squares: Premium (5.75 per bale). GL_GR310 Greeley, CO Thu Nov USDA-CO Dept of Ag Market News Colorado Hay Report Compared to last week, market activity is inactive with prices steady on light demand. Trading continues to be limited on all classes of hay this week with interest mostly for small squares of alfalfa. All prices reported are FOB at the stack or barn unless otherwise noted. Prices reflect load lots of hay. Northeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Utility DEL. Grass Large Squares: Good DEL. Corn Stalks Large Squares: Good Southeast Colorado Areas Alfalfa Small Squares: Premium ( per bale). Grass Round: Premium San Luis Valley Area No reported quotes for all other classes of hay. Southwest Colorado Areas Alfalfa Large Squares: Premium ; Good Mountains and Northwest Colorado Areas Grass Large Squares: Premium Small Squares: Premium (5.75 per bale.) Forage Outlook Weekly Soybean Contract Hay prices will continue to soften. Demand is soft so? It s plentiful. East v. West? Excellent hay: $120 $150/T. Low quality hay: <$60 $80/T. Back to more small bales 43

44 Weekly Soybean Meal Contract Weekly Soybean Oil Contract 44

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47 NOV 2015 Soybean Contract NOV 2016 Soybean Contract Forecast $ /bu. 47

48 Oilseeds Outlook Weekly KC Wheat Contract World production & consumption of oilseeds grows. Foreign production & trade of oilseeds grows. U.S. production & stocks are abundant. Next year?: acres & weather. Downside risk for price. $8.00 $9.25/bu. soybeans. And volatility with the most downside risk. Price greater than can be supported by fundamentals. 48

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50 JUL 2016 KC Wheat Contract Forecast $ /bu 50

51 JUL 2016 Wheat Contract Wheat Outlook World production & usage: Building stocks. U.S. production & use: building stocks. Acres next/this year? Bigger or smaller? Uncertainty about world weather? Soft trade & strong dollar. Forecasts: JUL $5.25 with range $ /bu. And aligned with fundamentals. Input Market Outlook Summary Soft everything. Even land valuations Risks moderating. Softening fuel costs with no volatility Fertilizer Chemicals Supply industries remain operating undercapacity & unwilling to take risk. We haven t had this much cheap energy in a while. Let s see what happens. $150 $35 Weekly Crude Oil Contract $40-$60 51

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53 Percent Change QTRLY GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT (GDP) Real Dollar (2005) Change from Previous Quarter Data Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 07/30/15 53

54 Percent U.S. UNEMPLOYMENT RATE Seasonally Adjusted, Quarterly Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC 07/30/15 Index Domestic U.S. Consumer Confidence Monthly, Index year 1966 = 100 Jan 78 Jan 81 Jan 84 Jan 87 Jan 90 Jan 93 Jan 96 Jan 99 Jan 02 Jan 05 Jan 08 Jan 11 Jan 14 Data Source: Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan 08/11/2014 Index Asia Consumer Confidence Monthly, Long Term Average = 100 Jan 2008 Jul 2008 Jan 2009 Jul 2009 Jan 2010 Jul 2010 Jan 2011 Jul 2011 Jan 2012 Jul 2012 Jan 2013 Jul 2013 Japan Korea China Major Five Asia Exchange Rate EXCHANGE RATE US Dollar base, Monthly Japan Data Source: OECD 08/11/2014 Data Source: Pacific Exchange Rate Service, Univ. of B.C., Compiled by LMIC 11/02/15 54

55 Outlook Summary Cattle: A different kind of wow Fed: $ /cwt. Feeders: $ /cwt. Calves: $ ¾/cwt. Corn: $ /bu. for 2015/16 & $ /bu. into next year. Acres? Hay: if you have a bidder then sell it Wheat: $ /bu. for next harvest. Contact and Link Information Stephen.Koontz@ColoState.Edu 55