Rice Market Situation and Outlook

Transcription

1 May 1 Rice Market Situation and Outlook THIRTEENTH SESSION OF THE AMIS GLOBAL FOOD MARKET INFORMATION GROUP FAO Headquarters, Rome 4 May 1 GLOBAL RICE PRODUCTION To grow by 1. percent to a fresh peak of 11 million tonnes. Improved margins expected to boost paddy plantings, especially in Asia. Global rice production % Production Growth rate Global paddy area and yields Million hectares Tonnes/hectare Area Yields Trends in major rice producers F cast production change: 1 vs. 17 India Bangladesh Viet Nam Others United States Sri Lanka Myanmar Thailand Tanzania Indonesia Madagascar Philippines Korea Rep. Egypt Brazil China (Mainland) Millions of tonnes, milled eq. 1

2 May 1 WHERE THE 1 SEASON IS MORE ADVANCED Growing conditions yield mixed results. Vietnam: winter spring production in the Mekong Delta Tonnes/hectare 7. Sri Lanka: Main (Maha) crop sowing progress Thousand ha. Brazil: Sowing progress in Rio Grande do Sul Percent sown Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Paddy production Yields Avg Avg. IN THE NORTHERN HEMISPHERE Much will depend on weather conditions during critical summer months. Planting decisions also swayed by government policies. India: Minimum support prices China (Mainland): Avg. paddy prices and Government purchase prices (CNY/ Kg) / Early Indica Late/intermediate Indica Japonica Minimum support prices (INR/quintal) Common Grade A Ntl. avg. Govt. purchase price Cost of production (INR/quintal) 1/ Weighted Avg MSP return over cost of production (%) Common 41 Grade A Sources: Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Department of Agriculture and Cooperation, Ministry of Agriculture and Farmers Welfare. 1/ Refer to all costs incurred, in cash and kind, as well as family labour (A+FL). 11 Mar 14 Mar 1 Mar 1 Mar 17 Mar 1 Mar 14 Mar 1 Mar 1 Mar 17 Mar 1 Mar 14 Mar 1 Mar 1 Mar 17 Mar 1 Sources: Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People's Republic of China and National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC). / Changes in Government procurement prices are depicted as per their month of announcement. 1

3 May 1 INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN RICE Global rice deliveries to remain close to heights seen in 17, despite reduced import needs in Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean. World trade and FAO Rice Price Index 4= * Exports FAO All Rice Price Index* *Jan Apr average for 1 Rice imports by region 1 Africa 14 Far East Near East Asia Others Latin America & C Trends in selected rice importers F'cast import change: 1 vs. 17 Indonesia Philippines Nigeria Saudi Arabia Malaysia Iraq EU China, Mainland South Africa Cote d'ivoire Brazil Madagascar Iran Islamic Rep. Sri Lanka Senegal Bangladesh Others Thousands of tonnes, milled eq. INTERNATIONAL RICE PRICES Increase in all the major market segments, especially in the Indica and fragrant rice markets. Export Prices of % Broken Rice in Asia US$/tonne 4 4 Thail % India % Viet % Pak % Higher Quality Indica Prices in the Americas US$/tonne 4 4 US /4% Argentina % Brazil % Uruguay % Aromatica and Japonica Prices US$/tonne 1, 1,4 1, 1,1 Pak Basmati India Basmati Pusa Thai Fragrant 1% B US N.1/4 MG Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Apr 1

4 May 1 ASIAN BUYERS Continue recurring to international markets to replenish rice reserves and quell pressure on domestic quotations. Philippines: public purchases and distribution.. Imports Domestic procurement Distribution Bangladesh: rice imports. Government Private sector. Indonesia: public domestic procurement of rice Jan Mar Jan Mar Jan Apr Jan Apr AMONG RICE EXPORTERS India and Thailand to ship less in 1, while Vietnamese exports rise markedly thanks to strong Asian demand for Indica rice and continued growth in fragrant and glutinous shipments. Rice exports by the major exporters F Thailand: rice exports Viet Nam: official rice exports 4 4 F=forecast India Thailand Viet Pakistan USA Others Nam White, non glutinous Frangrant Long grain parboiled Glutinous White, non glutinous Fragrant Glutinous Other 4

5 May 1 WORLD RICE UTILIZATION Greater food demand to sustain a 1. percent expansion in world rice use in 1/1. Availability of cheaper alternatives and reduced public inventories to depress feed and industrial uses. Global rice market summary / 17 1 f cast f cast Var million tonnes, milled eq. % Production Supply Utilization Food use Feed use Other uses Trade 1/ Ending stocks Rice production, utilization and stocks / Calendar year trade of the second year shown. Closing Stocks (right axis). Utilization (left axis) Production (left axis) World China (Mainland) Rice utilisation Percentage share in total (14 1 Avg.) 1 4 Other Industrial PH Losses Feed Food CLOSING STOCKS To expand for the third successive season, sustained by additional build ups in China (Mainland) and India. China (Mainland): Public stock auctions of paddy Stocks in the major rice exporters % World rice stocks % Jan 1 Apr 1 Jul 1 Oct 1 Volumes offered (left axis) Volumes awarded (left axis) Cumulative releases (right axis) Apr Pakistan Viet Nam India United States Thailand Stock to disappearance ratio Rest of the world Rice Exporters China (Mainland) World stock to use ratio 1 1 1

6 May 1 Thank You 11