Micro simulation model estimating Czech farm income from Farm Accountancy Data Network database

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1 Micro simulation model estimating Czech farm income from Farm Accountancy Data Network database 22 nd Pacioli workshop 29 th September 214 Zuzana Hlouskova Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information Czech Republic

2 What do we estimate Farm income of Czech agriculture and its components: Farm net income Farm net value added Costs Production billions of CZK Subsidies e Farm level estimates weighting & aggregation national level estimates based on FADN CZ database 1417 questionnaires for DG.AGRI represent 14 8 Czech farms

3 When do we estimate the sooner the better I. stage estimation 1 months before FADN results are ready December of current accounting year input information is known Done II. stage estimation 13 months before FADN results are ready September of current accounting year input information partly known, partly III. stage Ongoing forecast 22 months before FADN results are ready December of preceding year scenarios of following year results, no information known Under preparation

4 Process of estimation (stage I and II) Data farm sample selection selection of independent variables in FADN CZ farm return external input data search Index compilation index calculation, identification of price/rate per unit integration of indices/prices/rates into simulation model assumptions Projection running of the projection on individual farms calculation of output results application of weights aggregation by class Results analysis production (crop, livestock), costs, subsidies, income annual trend changes in values comparison with macroeconomic results

5 Selection of independent variables Annual change rate is applied to all key items affecting economic results Production: Costs: Subsidies: main crops livestock categories products (milk, eggs) direct livestock and crop costs, energy, services, costs of machinery and buildings, wages, rent paid. according to information available at time of calculation

6 Information source Mainly on-line public information Czech Statistical Office Ministry of Agriculture Institute of Agricultural Economics and Information State Agricultural Intervention Fund Agricultural unions etc. - Average monthly prices of agricultural producers - Input agricultural price indices - Commodity statistics - Livestock inventory - Information on yield and harvest of selected crops - Information on estimate of yield and production of agricultural crops - Economic Accounts for Agriculture (macro economical data) - Information on subsidy (totals, rates)

7 Results of stage I weighted results comparison, 211 and , -4,1% +6,96% 14, +,6% +4,8% 12, 1, 8, 6, +2,9% -1,2% +,4% -,8% 4, -5,7% +5% +4,8% -6,1% 2, Farm net income Farm net value added Gross farm income Total output Total costs Subsidies (ex. on investments) 211 FADN (October 212) 211e Estimate FADN (January 212) 212 FADN (November 213) 212e Estimate FADN (April 213)

8 Testing of stage I farm distribution comparison FADN 212 mililons of CZK Total output Total input Farm net value added Net farm income

9 Testing of stage I farm distribution comparison FADN NFI by type of farming Specialists field crops Specialists dairying Grazing livestock Mixed farms

10 Stage II input information estimation Estimation of: Crop prices Livestock prices Products prices Costs Yields FADN CZ estimates: Crop prices and costs Forecast function of linear regression (213) panel data Public estimates: Czech Statistical Office Ministry of Agriculture IAEI estimates: prediction of Economic Accounts of Agriculture in CZE (model EAA) Commodity department estimates

11 Testing of step II weighted 212 results comparison +,5% -1,7% 212 FADN results 1, +1,7% 212e estimation (September 212) 5, +,33% +2,17% -1,45% +5,8% -1,87% Total output Total crop output Total livestock output Total inputs Total intermediate consumption Total specific costs Total farming overheads Total external factors

12 Testing of step II weighted 212 results comparison Millions of CZK e Final vs. Estimated % SE131 Total output ,7% SE135 Total crop output ,33% SE14 Cereals ,73% SE16 Oil seed crops ,88% SE17 Vegetables ,95% SE175 Fruit ,7% SE195 Forage crops ,92% SE26 Total livestock output ,17% SE216 Cow s milk and products ,8% SE22 Beef and veal ,37% SE225 Pigmeat ,47% SE235 Poultrymeat ,9% SE27 Total inputs ,5% SE275 Total intermediate consumption ,7% SE281 Total specific costs ,45% SE285 Seeds and plants ,58% SE295 Fertilisers ,1% SE3 Crop protection ,37% Total feed ,6% SE336 Total farming overheads ,8% SE365 Total external factors ,87%

13 Testing of step II farm distribution comparison FADN Total production 7 6 Total costs Crop production 7 6 Livestock production

14 Limitations Extreme weather and its unexpected impacts on production (drought, flood, spring frost, hail, heavy rain) Change of political decisions Prices of production available from the Czech Statistical Office not weighted by volume of production Volatility of prices Information on subsidies not comprehensive in the course of year (difficult to estimate real payments) Model does not include forecast of structural change and assets

15 THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION