Agrievolution Business Barometer. October Public excerpt of the survey on the worldwide development of the agricultural machinery business

Transcription

1 Agrievolution Business Barometer Public excerpt of the survey on the worldwide development of the agricultural machinery business ober th edition Contact: Page 1 20th ober 2017

2 What is the Agrievolution Business Barometer? A survey within senior management of the global agricultural machinery industry (ca. 87% manufacturers and 13% distributers) Project managed under the umbrella of Agrievolution (global association network for the agricultural machinery industry) 282 participants from (Western) Europe (by CEMA with the results of its separate monthly survey), India, Japan, South Korea, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and the United States Implemented by the correspondent national associations Project lead and summary of the results: VDMA (Germany) Objective: illustration of the current and future branch development for the most relevant topics of the industry General evaluation of the business Order intake Turnover Employmenent Delivery times Machinery stocks Farmers mood and economic conditions Others Survey periods: il/may and ober/november (Start was in 2010) Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 2 20th ober 2017

3 Summary of the Survey in ober 2017 Production From a production perspective, the business climate for agricultural machinery has further improved significantly in most major industry regions of the world, except Brazil, Russia and Turkey. At the same time, significant increase in volume of orders is only recorded in Western Europe. In the US, the volume of orders is corresponding to the same production level as in the past surveys. The Turkish production, on the other side, is faced with a sharp decline. Surprisingly, business climate is again considered best in the US, especially with view on the turnover expectations, but also on the evaluation of the current situation for both, export and domestic market. However, the US Industry draws within this same survey a not quite so euphoric picture when it comes to the environmental fundamentals for the home market. The current impact from crop production and, accordingly, current profitability of farming is still considered negative. Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 3 20th ober 2017

4 Summary of the Survey in ober 2017 Market Environment Only the Russian survey participants evaluate in majority farming in their home market as currently profitable (Japan and Brazil balanced, all other countries in majority negative). The impact on profitability from crop production is in all countries mostly rated negative, except Japan and Russia. In contrast, the influence from animal production is regarded as positive in all countries, except China and Brazil. Interestingly, there is now in most countries of the world a majority of industry representatives reporting about government programs with positive effects on demand for agricultural machinery, however, overall government support is still mostly considered insufficient. The Brazilian and Indian survey participants clearly don t expect any positive impact from the government side. The respondent s evaluation of the impact from the credit side continues meanwhile worst in Brazil, followed by Russia and Turkey. Last but not least, long-term competitiveness is evaluated to be secured in all countries, especially in emerging countries, except Turkey. Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 4 20th ober 2017

5 Summary of the Survey in ober 2017 Markets Overall, regarding the market development in the next six months, there is now for the second time in a row for all global regions a majority of survey participants expecting the turnover performance to be above the previous year s level. However, Russia, India and Brazil seem to have already reached their peak, with Russia and India likely to continue at a high level, but Brazil declining again since summer. The outlook for Turkey appears, despite state support and increasing crop yields, also rather gloomy. On the other hand, in the US a recovery from the deep recession of recent years seems to be only a matter of time. Europe is already in the midst of the upswing. In Japan, the bottom seems also to be overcome, as finally a clear stabilization can be seen. China appears to continue gaining stability at a good growth level. Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 5 20th ober 2017

6 Production Agrievolution Business Climate Index Possible range from -100 to Climate Index Current Situation Future Situation Climate Index Current Situation Future Situation Source: Agrievolution Business Barometer 2017 weighted global average * Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 6 20th ober 2017

7 Production Agrievolution Business Climate Index Possible range from -100 to World* USA Brazil** Western Europe Turkey Russia** India** China** Korea Japan Source: Agrievolution Business Barometer, **partly without data *weighted global average Contact: Page 7 20th ober 2017

8 Market Environment Question: Please give a current evaluation of the following aspects/impacts for the farmers / end customers in your home market: Profitability of farming Answers from manufacturers / importers according to location positive (+) neutral (0) negative (-) Japan China India Russia Turkey W. Europe Brazil USA World* % 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Source: Agrievolution Business Barometer 2017 *weighted global average Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 8 20th ober 2017

9 Markets Turnover expectations (next six months) according to continents Positive value means: growth tendency, negative value means: tendency for decline (but not to be interpreted as %-change!) - index calculated as a balance of growth and decrease expectations, with a possible range from +100 to -100 East Asia North America East Europe European Union Latin America Africa Rest of Asia and Middle East Oceania Note: this is only a trend indication according to weighted majorities negative index = majority of respondents expect the market to perform below the previous year s level, positive index = majority expect it above Source: Agrievolution Business Barometer Contact: philip.nonnenmacher@vdma.org Page 9 20th ober 2017