Examining Ag & Food Systems in New York State
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1 Agricultural Economic Development: 1 Examining Ag & Food Systems in New York State Todd M. Schmit Ruth and William Morgan Assistant Professor in Applied Economics & Management Director, Cornell Program on Agribusiness & Economic Development Charles H. Dyson School of Applied Economics & Management Cornell University State of Upstate New York Conference Syracuse, NY June 8, CORN E LL P ROGRA M o n A G RIBU S I N E S S & E C O N O M I C D E V E LO P M E N T Cornell Program on Agribusiness & Economic Development
2 Today s Discussion 2 Ag-based contributions and inter-industry linkages in NYS s Ag and Food Systems Primary focus on farm and manufacturing sectors Regional contributions & variation Primary issues looking forward
3 Regional Delineation 3 North Country Mohawk Valley (NC-MV) Western NY (WNY) Capital District Mid-Hudson (CD-MH) Central NY S. Tier (CNY-ST) NYC Long Island (NYC-LI)
4 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
5 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
6 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
7 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
8 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
9 Value Added Ag-Based Contributions to NYS Economy, $ Million, Value Added, Definition A Definition B $1,369 $2,374 Gross State Product = $1,090 bill. Ag-Based = 4.5% Definition C $8,347 Definition D $18,286 Definition E $28,163 Definition F $48, ,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 Million Dollars Livestock/Crop Production Food/Bev Ag/Chem Manufacturing Food/Bev Retail Trade Ag/Forestry/Vet Services Ag/Food Wholesale Trade Food Service/Drinking Places Source: MIG 2009
10 Economic Impact Estimates, New York State, Agricultural Production Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Type (Number) ($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million) Direct Effect 44,154 $1,194 $1,315 $3,747 Indirect Effect 12,308 $ 524 $ 952 $1,747 Induced Effect 10,729 $ 565 $1,010 $1,603 Total Effect 67,191 $2,283 $3,277 $7,097 Source: MIG 2009
11 Economic Impact Estimates, New York State, Food and Beverage Product Manufacturing* Impact Employment Labor Income Value Added Output Type (Number) ($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million) Direct Effect 53,037 $2,825 $ 5,546 $26,223 Indirect Effect 67,017 $4,230 $ 6,766 $13,237 Induced Effect 43,624 $2,304 $ 4,120 $ 6,539 Total Effect 163,678 $9,359 $16,432 $45,999 *Production and manufacturing effects are NOT additive. Backward linkages in food and beverage manufacturing INCLUDE farm production, as well as other industries. Source: MIG 2009
12 Regional Multipliers, New York State, Output Multipliers NYS UPS WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI Crop Production Animal Production Ag Support Services Food Manufacturing Beverage Manufacturing Source: MIG, 2009 Employment Multipliers NYS UPS WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI Crop Production Animal Production Ag Support Services Food Manufacturing Beverage Manufacturing Source: MIG, 2009
13 Regional Multipliers, New York State, Output Multipliers NYS UPS WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI Crop Production Animal Production Ag Support Services Food Manufacturing Beverage Manufacturing Source: MIG, 2009 Employment Multipliers NYS UPS WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI Crop Production Animal Production Ag Support Services Food Manufacturing Beverage Manufacturing Source: MIG, 2009
14 A Snapshot of NYS Agriculture Production, Output Total = $3,902 Mill % 84 2% % Grain & Oilseed % Vege & Melon Fruit & Tree Nut Greenhouse & Nursery 1,684 43% 316 8% Other Crop Cattle (non-dairy) Dairy & Milk 121 3% 351 9% % Poultry & Egg Other Animal Source: MIG, Inc.
15 15 A National Perspective Farm contributions to GDP by state, average annual growth (chained dollars)
16 Percentage Change Selected Farm Sectors, New York State Annualized percentage change in output, , selected farm sectors, New York State (nominal) 30% 25% All Sectors = -1.9% 20% 15% 10% 5% 0% -5% Grain & Oilseed Vegetable & Melon Fruit & Tree nut Greenhouse & Nursery Cattle & Dairy Poultry & Other Source: MIG, Inc.
17 Output ($ Million) Regional Agricultural Production by Sector, New York State, 2009 [Annual % Ch. 2004] 17 $1,400 $1, % -0.9% $1,000 Grain & Oilseed $800 $ % -4.3% Vege & Melon Fruit & Tree nut Greenhouse & Nursery Other Crop $400 $ % Cattle (non-dairy) Dairy & Milk Poultry & Egg Other Animal $0 WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI New York State Region
18 A Snapshot of NYS Food & Bev Manufacturing, Output Total = $28,241 Mill % % % % Animal Food Milling Oilseeds Cereals % % Sugar Confectionary Fruit and Vegetable Dairy % Meat Seafood Bakery Tortilla % Other Food Soft Drink Ice % 137 1% % Source: MIG, Inc. Brew Wine Distill
19 19 A National Perspective Food manufacturing contributions to GDP by state, average annual growth (chained dollars)
20 Percentage Change Food & Beverage Manufacturing Performance (nominal) Percentage Change in Employment and Output, Food and Beverage Manufacturing, NYS F&B Mfg NYS Other Mfg US F&B Mfg Employment Output
21 Percentage Change F&B Manufacturing Sectors, New York State Annualized percentage change in output, , F&B manufacturing sectors, New York State (nominal) 20% 15% All Sectors = +3.3% 10% 5% 0% -5% Animal Food Milling Oilseeds Cereals Sugar & Confec Fruit & Vege Dairy Meat Seafood Bakery & Tortilla Other Food Soft Drink Ice Brew Wine Distill Source: MIG, Inc.
22 Output ($ Million) 22 $12,000 Regional Food & Beverage Manufacturing Output by Sector, New York State, 2009, [Annual % Ch. 2004] +3.0% $10,000 $8, % Animal Food Milling Oilseeds Cereals Sugar Confectionary $6,000 Fruit and Vegetable Dairy -0.1% Meat $4, % Seafood $2, % Bakery Tortilla Other Food Soft Drink Ice $0 Brew Wine Distill WNY CNY-ST NC-MV CD-MH NYC-LI New York State Region
23 F&B Manufacturing Firm Survey 23 Mailing list of 3,687 establishments (net) Mailed early 2009 with reminders Response rate 13% Industry Sectors Represented: Grain Milling, Sugary/Confectionary, Fruit & Vegetable, Dairy Products, Meats, Seafood, Bakeries, Beverages, Maple Products
24 24 Predicted growth rates by sector ( ), all else held constant Predicted Annual Revenue Growth at Sample Means Alcoholic Beverage Bakery & Tortilla Slaughter & Meat Dairy Fruit & Vegetable Sugar & Confectionary Other Food Revenue Growth Rate (%)
25 25 F&B Manufacturing Focus Groups on Firm Growth and Competitiveness Prioritized barriers: High state taxes and insurance costs Increasing state licensing/inspection fees Impending regulations on labor and wages Availability and retention of (motivated) workforce. Prioritized opportunities: Growing demand for local and environmentally-friendly foods Supply chain innovations with distributors Current product line growth Sector partnering across products, retail events, & transport/delivery.
26 Summary Points 26 Farm Production 1. Price volatility managing the margins, diversification (markets, crops) 2. Expanding markets - cost competitiveness, product differentiation 3. Growing local food demands; including processed food products 4. Augmenting traditional food supply chains to address barriers 5. Ongoing immigration issues and farm worker regulations F&B Manufacturing 1. State government renewed focus on upstate & F&B manufacturing 2. Sustainability issues up- and down-stream 3. Small and large scale perspectives vary, high firm heterogeneity 4. Changing processing demands vegetables (reduced), dairy (growing) 5. Increased input sourcing upstate for downstate manufacturing activity? Ag & Food Systems Development Moving Forward 1. Engage wider (mainstream) economic development community 2. Consider existing and evolving inter-industry linkages 3. Recognize and pay attention to the intangibles attitudes, landscapes
27 27 Thank You! Contact Information: Todd M. Schmit 248 Warren Hall Cornell University Ithaca, NY Ph:
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