Coping with Climate Change Challenges and Potential for Agriculture and Food Security in Arab Countries

Transcription

1 Coping with Climate Change Challenges and Potential for Agriculture and Food Security in Arab Countries Arab Climate Resilience Initiative, UNDP Rabat - Morocco, 3-5 November 2010 Mahmoud Solh Director General ICARDA

2 Outline 1. Climate change and its implication on Agriculture and Food Security in Arab countries; 2. Coping with climate change through Adaptation, Mitigation and Ecosystem Resilience; 3. Achieving Food Security and Coping with Climate Change 4. Conclusion: What can make the difference.

3 The Changing World

4 Climate Change and Its Implication on Agriculture and Food Security

5 What do we mean by Climate Change? Increase in global mean temperature (ºC) due to the emission of Green House Gases (GHG) Temperature rise and associated climate phenomena cause serious impact globally Past Future Short-term: greater climate variability, including extreme events Long-term: shifts in mean climate conditions Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Module 2: Specific Policy Issues Climate Change Session 2.1 Figure SPM.5

6 Climate Change Implications Certain areas are projected to become drier and hotter Effects of global warming Crops and livestock will face increased heat stress & extreme conditions Developing countries in the south are likely to be negatively affected 11% decrease in cultivable rainfed land area by 2080 projected in developing countries Severest impacts expected in dry areas particularly in Africa (North & Sub-Saharan Africa) and the Near East Annual Mean Precipitation Change: 2071 to 2100 Relative to

7 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099 Relative change of mean annual precipitation 1980/1999 to 2080/2099, scenario A1b, average of 21 GCMs (compiled by GIS Unit ICARDA, based on partial maps in Christensen et al., 2007)

8 Dry Areas: Fragile Eco-systems Physical water scarcity Rapid natural resource degradation and desertification Groundwater depletion Drought Salinity Climate change m Decrease of the Souss aquifer level in Morocco

9 Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of cereals on rainfed cultivated land Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change Northern Africa Western Asia Central Asia Developed Developing World Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

10 Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of irrigated cereals on current irrigated land Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons t/ha % change % change Northern Africa Western Asia Central Asia Developed Developing World Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

11 Impact of climate change on land suitability and potential production of current grass/scrub/woodland Current climate HadCM3 A2 2080s CSIRO A2 2080s Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield Area Prod Yield mln ha mln tons DM t/ha % change % change Northern Africa Western Asia Central Asia Developed Developing World Source: Fischer et al., 2008.

12 Climate change affects not only food production it affects all four dimensions of food security Availability Loss in food production Direct natural resource degradation & More abiotic and biotic Stresses Access Infrastructure damage, asset losses Loss of income and employment opportunities Stability Increased livelihood risks, pressure on food prices Higher dependency on food imports and food aid Increased variability in abiotic and biotic stresses Utilization Human health risks, nutrition Source: FAO Policy Learning Programme Module 2: Specific Policy Issues Climate Change Session 2.1

13 Coping with Climate Change

14 Coping with Climate Change - Approaches Approaches to follow: Adaptation Ecosystem Resilience Mitigation Strengthening adaptive capacity of crops and communities; Improve resilience of farming systems; Adaptation & production system resilience to climate change contribute directly to mitigation 14

15 Adaptation: Helping farmers cope with climate change and improve food security Adaptation to climate change Improved (adapted) crop varieties Integrated pest and disease management Improved water productivity (production per unit water) Diversification and sustainable intensification of productions systems Integrated crop-livestock production systems and rehabilitation of degraded pastures Better management of limited land and water resources

16 Importance of germplasm conservation: ICARDA Gene Bank Number of Accessions Crop Barley 24,823 Wheat 33,639 Wild cereals 7,300 Forage legumes 28,330 Food legumes 32,456 Wild food legumes 851 Forage and range 5,666 Total 133,065

17 ICARDA's holdings Geographic coverage of the conserved plant genetic resources at ICARDA Gene Bank

18 Crop Crop improvement: released varieties using ICARDA germplasm, 1977 to 2009 Developing Countries Last 2 years Industrialized Countries All Countries Barley Durum Wheat Bread Wheat Chickpea Faba Bean Lentil Forages Peas Sub-Total Total NET ESTIMATED BENEFIT = about US $850 m / year

19 High yield potential Varieties released Tolerance to abiotic stresses: - Drought - Heat - Cold - Salinity Resistance/tolerance to biotic stresses - Diseases - Insect pests - Parasitic weeds

20 Wheat area (million ha) Precipitation (mm) /100 Production (million tons) Wheat in Syria: Area Saved and Production 9 8 Area Needed Precipitation Actual Area Linear (Area Trend). Actual Production Linear (Production Trend)

21 Wheat area (million ha) Precipitation (mm) /100 Production (million tons) Production (kton/mm) Wheat in Syria: Enhanced Rainfall Productivity Area Needed Precipitation Actual Area Linear (Area Trend) Production (kton/mm) Linear Production/Precipitation Trend. Actual Production Linear (Production Trend)

22 Wheat Crossed with Wild Relatives: Synthetic Wheat, tolerance to excessive drought Parent Variety Yield t/ha % recurrent parent Cham 6*2/SW Cham 6*2/SW Cham Attila Yield of synthetic derivatives compared to parents under drought stress. (Tel Hadya mm)

23 Yield of Synthetic Wheat Varieties derived from wild relatives under moisture extremes Yield (tons/ha) 8 7 Average Maximum Low (280mm) Moisture stress High (480mm)

24 Yields (kg/ha) of promising durum wheat genotypes under rainfed (RF) and supplemental irrigation (SI) Mean (kg/ha) Max(kg/ha) 11 t/ha /t/ha t/ha RF (321 mm) RF+SI ( mm) RF+SI ( mm) Rf (321 mm) Rf+SI ( mm) Fvrbl+SI ( mm) RF = Rainfed; SI = Supplemental Irrigation

25 Heat-Tolerant Wheat in Sudan

26 Barley for excessive drought in Syria Zahra Local Landrace Zahra versus local landrace (139 mm rainfall)

27 Winter vs. spring chickpea in West Asia & North Africa Mature winter crop Spring sown crop

28 Drought tolerant chickpea variety survived 2007 drought in Turkey Gokce is used on about 85% of the chickpea production areas (over 550,000 ha). With a yield advantage of 300 kg/ha over other varieties, and world prices over USD 1000/t, this represents an additional USD 165 million for Turkish farmers, in 2007 alone. The Kabuli chickpea, Gokce, developed by Turkish national scientists and ICARDA scientists, has withstood severe drought in Turkey and produced when most other crops failed in 2007.

29 Adaptation through Sustainable Water Management

30 Benchmark sites for integrated water and land management

31 Implementation in three agro-ecologies Rainfed Areas Irrigated Areas Marginal Lands

32 Rainfed Agro-Ecosystems Supplemental Irrigation Early sowing Deficit irrigation Optimization of supplemental irrigation Grain yield (t/ha) Water productivity (Kg/m3) rainfed Sowing SI Deficit SI Full SI

33 Irrigated Agro-Ecosystem Increasing water productivity/income Management of saline water and soils Policies and institutions Modifying cropping patterns

34 % of rainfall Marginal Land Agro-Ecosystem Water harvesting technologies Micro-catchments & mechanized contour laser planting Transpiration Evaporation Effective water harvesting Grazing management % increase in rainwater productivity 0 No intervention Micro WH Macro WH

35 Water productivty (kg/m3 x10) Tradeoffs between water and land productivity: Deficit Irrigation 20 Water productivity can be increased substantially Water, not land, is the limiting resource y = x x R 2 = Land productivtiy (t/ha)

36 Potential of WUE: Supplemental Irrigation (SI), Rainfed and Fully Irrigated (FI) Areas WUE: Water Use Efficiency

37 Nutritional Economic WP Calories/m3 WP $/m3 Systemwide Initiative: Potential water productivity improvement Poor management Improved management Beef Lentil Wheat Potato Olive Dates Beef Lentil Wheat Potato 7 Olive Dates Biological WP 0.3 kg/m Nutritional WP Protein gr/m3 3 3 Beef Lentil Wheat Potato Potato Olive Olive Dates Dates

38 Enhancing Resilience of Production Systems to Climate Change

39 Integration of crop, rangeland and livestock production systems Successful Technologies On-farm feed production By-products - feed blocks Flock management Barley production Cactus & fodder shrubs Natural pastures & rangeland management

40 Indigenous breeds of small ruminants are highly adaptable to changes in the environment

41 Small Ruminant Breed Characterization The focus of the books Production systems Characteristics 48 breeds Threats to animal diversity Completes CWANA series West Asia & North Africa and Central Asia & Caucasus

42 Successful Technologies in Farmers Fields Feed blocks using crop residues and agroindustrial by-products Improved rams Early weaning Improved barley cultivars Rotations of barley with forage legumes

43 Technology for improved feeding: Strategic feeding of low cost balanced diets Problems: High costs of supplements in dry years Cereals used as feeds Solutions: By-products of crops and agroindustries: Low cost balanced diets for intensive and semi-intensive systems using available byproducts and crop residues Feed blocks can be used to mitigate the effects of drought

44 Adaptation to climate change contributes to mitigation of climate change Mitigation potential from agricultural lands Estimates of mitigation potential from carbon sequestration have focused on the carbon uptake from afforestation and reforestation The capacity of grasslands to mitigate GHG emissions is often a neglected aspect of agriculture. The soil C levels in managed pastures and other grazing lands increases with improved management (IPCC Fourth Assessment Report WG3) The dry areas encompass vast areas of natural pastures, often degraded, and with rehabilitation would contribute to improved livelihoods, food security and C sequestration

45 Rangeland rehabilitation enhances Carbon Sequestration & Mitigation of Climate Change Rangelands occupy 256 m ha of rangeland in Central Asia Caucasus (88% of the land area)

46 Ultimate Goal: Achieving Food Security and Coping with Climate Change Implications

47 Projected Sources of Agricultural Growth 80% 20% Agriculture intensification Others Source: FAO, 2002 World agriculture: towards 2015/30,

48 Agricultural Intensification is a serious threat to the Environment and Natural Resources (Water, Biodiversity, and Land/Soil ) if not practiced in a Sustainable Manner particularly in Dry Areas. Therefore, we should aim at sustainable agricultural development that will not deplete natural resources namely Water, Biodiversity and Soil/Land Productivity.

49 The Trend Should be Towards Sustainable Agriculture Intensification More Expansion of Conservation Agriculture and Conservation Technologies Good Agricultural Practices (GAP) Sustainable Water Use and Management Zero/minimum Tillage Integrated Production Systems Diversification of Agriculture Production Integrated Plant Nutrient System (IPNS) Organic Fertilization and Organic Agriculture Integrated Pest Management (IPM) Protected Agriculture / Hydroponics

50 Achieving Food Security & Coping with Climate Change Implications Further Investment in: Expansion of Conservation Technologies & Conservation Agriculture for Sustainable Agricultural Development

51 In Conclusion Although Agriculture (including Forestry and Fisheries) contributes around 33 % of Greenhouse Gas emissions that causes Climate Change; Investment in Agriculture research and development is a major part of the solution to cope with climate change and its implications on Food Security; To achieve food security in a changing climate, we should help farmers to cope with climate change through adaptation and enhancing the resilience of farming system which will directly mitigate Climate Change.

52 In Conclusion: What Can Make the Difference? Enabling policy and political will; Investment in agricultural development Advances in Science & Technologies Adaptation and mitigation to Climate Change Sustainable intensification of production systems Integrated approaches and better NRM for economic growth Public awareness of the long term benefits of conservation technologies Capacity development & institutional support Partnerships

53 Today we all have the responsibility to work together promote conservation technologies to achieve food security and adapt and mitigate Climate Change

54 THANK YOU 54