JUSTIN GILPIN CEO Kansas Wheat Commission. DAN BARNARD Grain Merchandiser CHS Inc.
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1 JUSTIN GILPIN CEO Kansas Wheat Commission DAN BARNARD Grain Merchandiser CHS Inc.
2 U.S. WHEAT ASSOCIATES LATIN AMERICAN & CARIBBEAN BUYERS CONFERENCE THE SCOOP ON HARD RED WINTER WHEAT, AN INSIDE LOOK Hard Red Winter Wheat: Quality, Value, Access Justin Gilpin, Kansas Wheat CEO June 21, 2016 Portland, OR
3 AN INSIDE LOOK HRW overview Where we stand today Investments into Hard Red Winter wheat variety development Industry engagement (public/private partnerships) Innovation, quality, value creation and identification Challenges and opportunities going forward
4 HARD RED WINTER Most widely planted class in the US (harvesting 29.8 million acres) Nearly half of US wheat production Grown from Texas to Montana Largest domestically used class in US Nearly 13 mmt used annually Pan bread; all purpose flours; noodles and pasta Challenges and opportunities going forward for HRW
5 US HRW Production Region Hard Red Winter Hard Red Spring Durum Hard White Soft White Soft Red Winter Source US Wheat Associates
6 HRW HARVEST IS UNDERWAY! #WHEATHARVEST16 Social media changing information exchange rapidly! Wrapping up in Texas and Oklahoma, starting in Colorado and in full swing throughout Kansas. Quality outlook: Clean, sound crop with excellent kernel characteristics. High test weights and TKWs. Lower proteins in southern plains. Plenty of 12.0% protein available Value through extraction with this year s crop the kind of wheat you want in all your grists
7 CLASS OVERVIEW OF HRW TODAY Early yield and grade reports are very good, near record on a per acre in Kansas. Carryout situation with over 60% stocks to use ratios of US HRW. Lowest exports in over 3 decades at Under 7 mmt. In the past decade, HRW exports are half what they were. Cash price to the farmer even money to corn prices.
8 US EXPORTS BY CLASS
9 THESE FACTORS ALL ARE LEADING TO. Longer term trends can t be ignored Declining wheat acres. Kansas planted 8.5 million acres, 3 rd lowest since the Great Depression in the 1930s. Domestic use of HRW up year on year. Identifying basis and flat price HRW buying opportunities!
10 BUYING OPPORTUNITIES EXIST TODAY They will in the future, but current market structure is a carry market and there are opportunities NOW HRW Futures $/bu $/tonne KC N16 $4.61 $169 KC U16 $4.78 $176 KC Z16 $5.03 $185 KC H17 $5.19 $191 KC K17 $5.29 $194 KC N17 $5.38 $198
11 BEYOND THE BUYER S PERSPECTIVE: AN INSIDE LOOK AT HOW INDUSTRY IS RESPONDING Farmers making a stand with increased investment Private industry investing in variety development and breeding programs Domestic users of HRW investing in quality initiatives
12 EYEING INVESTMENTS Private companies and multiple collaborations. Has created a New world increased competition for wheat genetics and varieties on acres. Major forces at play: Syngenta; Bayer and Monsanto; Dow and DuPont Role of the public research investment. Farmer s investment even more important Investment is real, wheat interest and need for innovation is global: Growing consumption; 100 mmt in last decade. Declining acres and competiveness to other crops.
13 GLOBAL CONSUMPTION OF WHEAT UP OVER 100 MMT THE PAST DECADE MMT Production Use
14 WHICH DIRECTION WILL HRW GO? Global trade has shifted and HRW is the logical fit for Central and South America buyers Buyers can engage and help influence the future direction of variety development Partnerships will be key
15 FARMER S PARTNERING AND INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE New greenhouses in Washington State, Nebraska, North Dakota Nebraska, Idaho and Texas A&M (among others) private partner collaborations for infrastructure and endowments
16 KANSAS WHEAT INNOVATION CENTER "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
17 $11 MILLION DOLLAR INVESTMENT Majority of funding comes from wheat producers through the wheat check-off. Creating space for advancing variety development by university and private researchers. Home of the Wheat Genetics Resource Center, National Science Foundation center designee. Land provided by K-State through long-term lease "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
18 IF YOU RE NOT MOVING FORWARD YOU RE GOING BACKWARD. Kansas farmers took a chance Need for innovation wheat has fallen behind losing competiveness. Growers and industry want more investment in wheat End goal is: improved wheat varieties with shorter development times. Improved Genetics in the hands of farmers faster for the Wheat Industry! "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
19 MORE THAN JUST AN OFFICE "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
20 HOME TO WHEAT IMPROVEMENT EFFORTS National Science Foundation I/U CRC, Wheat Genetics Resource Center Heartland Plant Innovations DH s; Research Services Wheat Quality Initiatives underway USAID Feed the Future; USDA NIFA Grants KSU Wheat Variety development
21 "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE." LAB SPACE
22 CONTROLLED ENVIRONMENT PLANT GROWTH CHAMBERS "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
23 WALK IN SPACE PLANT GROWTH CHAMBERS "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
24 AIR-CONDITIONED GREENHOUSE Allows work to be done in the greenhouse throughout the year Ideal temperature range < 85 degrees during the day <60 degrees at night "WHEAT FARMERS INVESTING IN THEIR FUTURE."
25 STATE OF THE ART GREENHOUSE SPACE
26 THIS INVESTMENT HAS LED TO Good tech provider involvement the last 5 years. Syngenta, Limagrain, Bayer, Pioneer Milling partners engaging in efforts. Ardent Mills, ADM, General Mills, Bay State Kansas Wheat Innovation Center; Heartland Plant Innovations provides services for customers in South America, Mexico, and Europe Partnering with other states; wheat is no longer local it s global and will take global type efforts. And landscape continues to evolve with consolidations and joint ventures. What are you doing with your business?
27 THE RACE TO CREATE VALUE AND CAPTURE IT WHEAT INNOVATION HAS TO MAKE CENTS Can the marketing chain reward value creation? Value in efficiencies revenue per acre Yield increases; production efficiencies Efficiencies in milling extractions with this year s HRW. Buyers identify value; may not be the cheapest but still the best buy for ROI. Can a two tier marketing system work if the industry is forced to develop HRW varieties to compete globally?
28 IN CONCLUSION Hard Red Winter wheat harvest underway and crop quality data coming soon. Buying opportunities! Challenges facing HRW with acreage and competiveness being addressed with research investment. A lot of momentum for wheat innovation. Private industry is looking to advance HRW genetics Public/Private collaborations will advance genetics US Farmers are investing in their future Opportunity to work with researchers. Millers, end users and import customers. As things evolve, it will become increasingly important for buyers to know more about where there wheat is coming from. The US is best suited to be that supplier. End of the day, making wheat a viable and sustainable crop that benefits farmers, millers, bakers and consumers by working together creating value.
29 HRW Harvest time! Hello from the field:
30 THANK YOU!
31 A RACE WITH A MOVING FINISH LINE Investment is fueling the race but is everyone racing in the same direction? Biotechnology? Trait development and introgression? Consumer benefit?, Agronomic?, Nutrient Management? Hybrid Wheat? Yield stabilization and consistency? Ancient grains? Organic? At the end of the day it is about creating value and return on those investments. Genetic solutions for what HRW customers and Users want
32 Hard Red Winter: Quality, Value, Access Dan Barnard Export Marketing CHS Inc.
33 SUPPLY AND DEMAND 2013/ / / /17 Begin Stocks Production Total Supply Domestic Use ? #1 Exports ? #2 Total Demand ? #3 End Stocks ? #4 We planted lower acreage this year, but HRW Crop looks good and total supply is BIG.
34 How did we get here? SUPPLY AND DEMAND Good Crops. Lost Demand both domestic and export. Big Spring Wheat production in N. America, with low protein, reducing HRW demand. Feed usage down sharply as wheat prices did not compete with corn.
35 DEMAND: WHERE WILL IT COME FROM? About 70% of the demand for HRW is domestic. About 30% of the demand for HRW is exports. 50% of export demand is Latin America. We are priced and positioned for feed usage at levels not seen since 2013/14 in the U.S. HRW is priced for gaining share of domestic mill demand, at such discount to Spring Wheat. HRW will take back demand into export market with less low protein Spring Wheat competition. Argentina starting with near zero milling wheat stocks. It is HRW until at least December Canada has less wheat acres planted this season. Lowest stock/usage ratio in 30 years.
36 TRADE DYNAMICS Point for comparison FOB U.S. Gulf West Kansas Feedlot #2 Yellow Corn #2 HRW/11.0% Protein #2 SRW #2 NS/DNS/13.5% Who owns the old crop Beginning Stocks of HRW: Who owns the new crop Production: Who wants to own all the wheat they can at harvest? 80% Commercial/Storage 80% Producer Any Commercial with Storage.
37 TRADE DYNAMICS There is.75 per bushel ($27.50/MT) just in futures to carry/store HRW into mid Once harvest sales, forced sales done, and crop put away, you will have to pay up to get HRW. Domestic U.S. Millers already control large quantity of old crop HRW. No incentive to wait. KC Futures & Delivery will come into play, supporting lower protein HRW. The Basis will have to do the work to find higher protein HRW. HRW movements will have to compete with row crops for Transportation.
38 TRADE DYNAMICS Rail transportation costs seasonally increase from September into winter months. Barge freight seasonally increase into fall and winter months. HRW will have to compete with corn, soybeans, and other product for Elevations. We predict a shortage of export capacity, or it will be very costly, October into January We see prices continually influenced by Fund and/or speculative demand for futures, not wheat. We see continued influence of currency fluctuations, and other outside markets.
39 BACK TO ANSWER SUPPLY/DEMAND? Today I see U.S. HRW reaching 2013/14 Demand levels. This would mean HRW gaining back export market share. This would mean feeding HRW at a pace last seen in 2012/13, and 2013/14. This would mean a healthy HRW market and reduce year ending stocks to 10.8MMT (down.8mmt).
40 SUMMARY IS THERE A REASON TO THINK PRICES SHOULD GO SIGNIFICANTLY HIGHER FROM HERE? IS THERE REASON TO THINK PRICES SHOULD GO SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER FROM HERE? IS THERE REASON TO CONTRACT BASIS AT CURRENT LEVELS?
41 SUMMARY Think we have a market that is well priced given current fundamentals as defined today. At current price levels HRW is finding demand both domestic and export. The next 3-4 months is when we will have most access to HRW supply at the least cost. The next 3-4 months is when we should be able to move HRW into export positions at least overall cost. The protein spread from Ordinary to the 12.0% or higher protein will widen after harvest.
42 SUMMARY The old saying The best remedy for low prices, is low prices looks like it applies to the HRW market. The market looks like it has been working on getting that job done, and it continues to offer opportunity. We are sitting very near the lowest prices seen for a long time in terms of export HRW, in U.S. Dlrs./MT.
43 Thank you. Questions? Dan Barnard Export Marketing CHS Inc.
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