US and World Grain Supply & Demand As of 1 July 2012

Transcription

1 US and World Grain Supply & Demand As of 1 July 2012 Jay O Neil International Grains Program at Kansas State University joneil@ksu.edu

2 Who is the Worlds Largest Wheat Producer? Who is the Worlds Largest Corn Producer?

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5 CORN MARKET

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8 CME Corn-Soybean Ration (SX/CZ)

9 Major U.S. Crop Production Acres

10 = 93.5 mil. Acres = mi. HA = 88.2 million Acres = mil. HA Est. =91.9 million Acres =37.19 mil. HA Est. =96.4 million Acres =39.01 mil. HA

11 = mt/ha = mt/ha = 9.59 mt/ha est. = 9.23 mt/ha (147.2 bu/acre) est. = mt/ha (166 bu/acre) Or is it 151 bu/acre = 9.48 mt/ha??

12 = mil.mt = mil. mt = mil mt Estimated = mmt Estimated Or is it?

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15 = mil.mt = mil.mt = mil.mt = 46.61mil. mt est = mmt est.= mmt

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17 U.S. Grain Sorghum

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21 Acres est.=6.21 million = 2.5 mil. HA 5.24 million Acres x Yield of 54.6 = Production of million bushels 2.12 million HA x Yield = 7.26 million mt Production

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30 212 plants 2 Plants under construction/expansion April 2012 text22

31 ETHANOL FACILITIES Total Current Ethanol Plants 209 (August 2011) Name Plate Capacity of 14.7 billion gallons Producing Billion gallons per year (52.8 billion liters) Total plants under construction or expansion - 2 Total capacity under construction 133 million Gal.+ (.503 billion liters). Total Reported Capacity after 2012 construction = Billion gallons = (56.13 billion liters). Some major companies do not report capacity. Updated: April (RFA)

32 Reported Name Plate Capacity = billion gallons Reported Operating Production = billion gallons 5 % of Capacity not operating 10 April 2012

33 New U.S. Energy Bill The new energy bill calls for a 36 billion gallon/year ( bil. liters) renewable fuels standard (RFS) by Current RF Standard calls for 9 billion gallons (34 bil. liters) of renewable full production by The new mandate will require the production of 15 billion gallons (56.8 bil. liters) by 2015 and will add 3 billion gallons of fuel derived from cellulosic material (11.35 bil. liters) per year to that from 2016 to 2022 when the total mandate will reach 36 billion gallons (this is 4 times current production levels). Aside from the increased demand for corn that this will create, it will be a real challenge to develop infrastructure capabilities to blend and transport this volume of products (corn, ethanol and the DDGS).

34 Next-Generation Bio-Fuels Plants

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37 New US Renewable Fuel Standard Billion Gal. Billion Liters

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41 Fob Vessel DDGS Price vs. Corn

42 CORN Displaced by DDGS in Feed Rations Year Million YC bushels DDGS Production Million Tonnes DDGS Exports est est. *** The above estimates come from the ProExporter Network However- Relatively Cheap Feed Wheat and SBM is cutting DDGS demand

43 ProExporter Network

44 DDGS

45 REST of the WORLD CORN SUPPLY

46 2011 US Percentage of World Trade Corn = 45.7 % Soybeans = 43.8 % Wheat = 28.2 %

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48 Eight Major World Corn Producers = 85% of World Crop mil.mt

49 WORLD PERCENT of CORN EXPORTS

50 6 Major Corn Exporters =90 % of World Trade

51 25.0 million MT 2013-Exports 16.0 mil.mt

52 67.0 mil. MT Exports 12.0 mil mt.

53 Est.= mil.mt (159?) Est.= mil.mt (Some say 145 mil. mt?) est.= 168 mil.mt (Some say 160 mil mt?) est.= 178 mil. Mt est.= 195. mil mt

54 Imports = 2.0 million mt imports = mmt?

55 UKRAINE CORN EXPORTS MILLION METRIC TONS exports Est. Corn = Production 5.5 million mt = 11.9 mil.mt (exports est. at 5.5 mmt) 2012 Est. Corn Production = 18.0 mil. mt (Exports est. at 10.0 mmt) Est. Corn production = 24.0 mmm. (Exports = 14.0 mmt) CROP YEAR BEGINNING

56 World Corn Production = million mt World Corn Consumption = million mt

57 World Corn Ending Stocks = million mt = 17 % Stocks to use Ratio (61 days of usage)

58 on Farm $275.57/mt $255.90/mt $216.53/MT $196.85/MT $157.47/MT $118.10/mt

59 CME December Corn Futures (CZ2)

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61 SOYBEAN MARKET

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63 est.= 75.0 mil. acres = mil. HA est.= 76.1 mil acres = 30.8 million HA

64 Estimate = 41.8 bushels/acre = 2.95 mt/ha

65 Est. Production = 3,056 mil. bushels or million mt Est. Production = 3,205 mil. bushels or million mt

66 Est. Exports = mmt est. Exports = mmt mil.mt or 50 % of this to China?

67 Ending Stocks = 140 million bushels = 3.8 million mt Stocks to Use ratio =.04 % (15.7 days usage)

68 To Farmers $507.05/mt $367.43/mt $293.95/mt $183.71/mt $154.32/mt

69 OTHER COUNTRIES

70 Est. for Crop = mil. Mt Exports at 7.8 mmt Est. for Crop = mil. Mt Exports at mmt

71 Production Est. = 65.5 mmt Production Est. = 78.0 mmt Exports mil/mt Exports mil/mt

72 USA = mil. mt Brazil = mil mt Argentina = mil. mt = mil mt of world total mil mt mmt 81 % of World Production

73 74.52 mil. mt

74 Imports estimated at 61.0 mmt = 82 % of domestic consumption China Imports of mmt out of mil.mt of total world trade = 62 % of world trade in soybeans. (20 mil.mt from USA?)

75 World Soybean Production = million mt World Soybean Consumption = million mt

76 58.54 mil. mt = 22 % = 81 days usage

77 With a 7% annual increase in Soybean demand, the world needs to add a minimum of 6 million acres (2.4 million HA) of new soybean land each year. Total Cerrado Land Area = 510 million Acres = 206 million HA Currently Cropped for grain= 25 million acres = 10 million HA Potential new Crop Area = million acres = million HA

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80 WHEAT MARKET

81 Crop Year = Est million acres = million HA

82 est. = million bushels = Est mmt

83 Production = 12.0 mmt Exports = 6.20 mil mt

84 Exports = mmt 26.0 mil.mt

85 Exports = 18.5 mil mt 27.0 mil.mt

86 Exports = 1.0 mil mt Imports = 2.5 mil. mt mil. mt

87 Exports = 14.5 mil.mt Imports = 5.5 mil. mt mil mt

88 Exports 2.50 mmt 91.0 mil.mt

89 Exports = 16.0 mil.mt est. = 53.0 million mt

90 Wheat Planting in Russia -Town of Kastoroye, Kursk Region Russia (275 miles south of Moscow) Black Earth Farming Ltd. 18,000 hectares or 44,478 acres of Wheat.

91 Production est. = 15.0 mil mt (down 7.0 mmt from last yr.) Exports = 8.5 mil mt.

92 Ukraine Wheat Production vs. Usage, MMT Production Exports Usage est. = 13.0 million mt. (down 9.1 mil mt from last yr. Exports = 4.0 mil.mt Crop Year Beginning 12

93 Production Est. = mil.mt Consumption Est. = mil.mt

94 World Ending Stocks Est. at mmt =27 % of use or 99 days of consumption

95 Highest percentage carried by China mmt mmt

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99 So; What s Going On? What is The Market Watching?

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102 Central US, month of June, should rank as the #1 driest since 1988, #2 driest since 1936 and #5 driest over June 2012

103 25 June 2012

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106 AUM s (Assets Under Management) March 2011 $410 Billion

107 GRACIAS THANK YOU Jay O Neil Kansas State University joneil@ksu.edu