Cotton: World Markets and Trade

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1 United States Department of Agriculture Foreign Agricultural Service Cotton: World Markets and Trade May Global Consumption Rises Above Production, Fall USDA s initial forecast for / shows world consumption exceeding production for the first time in years. As a result world stocks will decrease by almost percent to. million bales; however, the stocks-to-use ratio of percent will remain near historic highs. World production is forecast to fall nearly percent in response to lower prices in most major producing regions. India is forecast to decline only slightly as its support policy protects farmers from world prices decline. China is expected to fall by percent to the lowest level since, led by a steep decline in eastern provinces due to the less generous level of support under the current program. Xinjiang will likely decline slightly in response to a reduced target price and efforts to exclude unregistered land from receiving subsidies. An percent drop is projected for the U.S. as harvested area responds to lower prices. World consumption is forecast to increase by. percent, based on world GDP growth and the lagged effect of falling cotton prices. China is forecast to increase at less than the world rate as domestic policies keep cotton prices above world prices despite its massive stock level. Structural changes in China s spinning sector will limit growth. Outside of China, growth is expected to be focused in those countries which have benefited from the situation in China. India, Pakistan, and Southeast Asian countries in particular are expected to continue to experience spinning growth. For an subscription, click here to register: new. Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board/USDA

2 Despite rising demand in import dependent counties such as Pakistan and Southeast Asia, world trade is expected to virtually unchanged. in China are expected to fall to the lowest level in years due to continuing import restrictions accompanying efforts to reduce government-held stocks. India s exports are expected to increase sharply in response to the large carry-in stocks that resulted from this season s support policy. Australia s exports are expected to decline due to a second season of unfavorable weather and planting conditions. Overview For /, world stocks are expected to decrease for the first time in five years due to growing consumption outside of China, a reduction in China s stocks, and lower global production. Continued low prices are expected to weigh on global production. Trade is down, largely due to continued declines in Chinese imports. The U.S. season average farm price is projected at cents/pound, with the mid-point unchanged from the current season estimate. For /, world production is relatively unchanged. World trade, use, and stocks are raised. Forecasts for the U.S. for / are unchanged. The forecast for the U.S. season average farm price is maintained at cents/pound. For current prices received by farmers click here; NASS farm price Prices Market concerns over tightening supplies of desirable cotton grades have helped push the A-Index and spot prices up to levels not seen since the beginning of the season. For more information on U.S. spot price click here; AMS Cotton Market News For more information on U.S. export sales click here; FAS Export Sales Query System Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

3 / TRADE OUTLOOK Major Exporters: India is up. million bales to. million on higher carry-in stocks. Australia is cut, bales to. million on lower production. Brazil is cut, bales to. million on lower exportable supply. Mali is up, bales to, on two years of large crops. Major Importers: China is reduced. million bales to. million on continuing policy constraints. Pakistan is raised, bales to. million on lower production and rising use. India is lowered, bales to, on large available stocks. Mexico is up, bales to. million on lower production and rising use. Indonesia is raised, bales to. million on rising use. Bangladesh is increased, bales to. million on consistently growing demand. Brazil is increased, bales to, on lower exportable supplies and rising use. Egypt is up, bales to, on greatly reduced production due to policy changes. Vietnam is increased, bales to. million on rising use. / TRADE CHANGES Major Exporters: Malaysia is cut, bales to, on greatly reduced transit trade. Brazil is raised, bales to. million on strong demand for machine picked cotton. Cote d Ivoire is raised, bales to, on strong deliveries, especially to Far Eastern markets. Pakistan is reduced, bales to, on recent slower activity. Major Importers: Malaysia is cut, bales to, on greatly reduced transit trade. China is raised, bales to. million on strong demand for high grades of cotton. Pakistan is raised, bales to, on strong mill use and deliveries. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

4 HISTORICAL SERIES CHANGES (see Summary of Changes table for details) Spain production, export, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Lesotho is added to the database as an importer with data from / to / Ethiopia export, import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Benin export and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. South Africa export, import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Tanzania export, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Cote d Ivoire export, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Albania import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to / Bahrain import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Honduras import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Moldova import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to / Argentina use and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Ecuador import, use, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Burma production, import, and stock data is adjusted for the period / to /. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

5 The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for cotton, oilseeds, and grains at : p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by : p.m. FAS Reports and Databases: Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports: Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online): Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. and ): Export Sales Report: Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports): Other USDA Reports: World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE): Economic Research Service: National Agricultural Statistics Service: Questions may be directed to: James Johnson () - Lyman Stone () - Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

6 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Albania / / / / / / / / Argentina - - / - - / - - / - - / / Armenia - - / / Bahrain / / / / / Bangladesh - - / Belarus / / Benin - / - / - - / - / / / - / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

7 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Year Cons. / / Bolivia / / - - Brazil / - Burkina / / Burma / / / - / - Cambodia / / / Chad / - Chile / - - China / Colombia / Cote d'ivoire / - - / - - / / / / / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

8 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Year Cons. / Croatia / - - Ecuador / / / / Egypt / El Salvador / - Ethiopia / - - / - - / - - / - - / / / / / / / / Greece / Honduras / / / / / Hungary / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

9 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. India - - / / - / Lesotho / / / / / / / / / / / / / Macedonia / / / Malaysia / / Mali - / - / Mexico / / Moldova / / / / / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

10 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Pakistan - / - - / Peru / / Senegal / Singapore / South Africa / / - - / - / / - / / / / / / / / - - / Spain / - - / - - / - - / - / / / - - / / - - / / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

11 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Cons / / / / Syria / Tanzania - / - - / / - - / - - / / / - / - - / - / United States - / World World / - - / - / - - / - / / / / - - / / / / / / / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

12 Summary of Changes in estimates and Forecasts from Last Month (Continued) (, lb Bales and, Ha) Country Mktg Beginning Production Use Loss Total Dom. Year Cons. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

13 Table Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August ) ( MT) / / / / / May / Production India,,,,,, China,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, Uzbekistan Turkey Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, USE Dom. Consumption China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, Bangladesh, Vietnam Brazil Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, China,,,,,, Bangladesh, Vietnam Turkey Indonesia Pakistan Thailand Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, United States,,,,,, India,,,,, Brazil, Uzbekistan Australia,,, Burkina Greece Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, United States Pakistan Turkey Uzbekistan Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, none none none none none Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

14 Table Cotton World Supply, Use, and Trade (Season Beginning August ) ( Bales) / / / / / May / Production Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, USE Dom. Consumption Bangladesh,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Indonesia,,,,,, Mexico,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Vietnam,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Bangladesh,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,, Indonesia,,,,,, Korea, South,,,,,, Mexico,,,, Pakistan,,,, Thailand,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, Vietnam,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Australia,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, Burkina,,,, Cote d'ivoire Greece,,,,, India,,,,,, Mali Turkmenistan,, United States,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, Brazil,,,,,, China,,,,,, India,,,,,, Pakistan,,,,,, Turkey,,,,,, United States,,,,,, Uzbekistan,,,,,, Other,,,,,, Total,,,,,, none none none none none Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

15 Table Cotton, Yield, and Production Country / Region / (Million hectares) Yield (Kilograms per hectare) Production (Million lb. bales) Change in Production Prel. / Proj. Prel. / Proj. Prel. / Proj. From last month From last year / May / / May / / May MBales Percent MBales Percent World United States Total Foreign none Western Hemisphere Brazil...,,, Mexico...,,, Argentina Paraguay Peru...,, Colombia Africa Burkina Mali Cote d'ivoire Cameroon Benin Chad Togo Senegal Egypt Zimbabwe Nigeria Asia Oceania China...,,, India Pakistan Kazakhstan Tajikistan Turkmenistan Uzbekistan Turkey...,,, Australia...,,, Syria...,,, Burma Europe Greece...,,, Others Note: Yeild for Total Foreign and Others is an incorrect calculation. Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

16 Table Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina,,, Armenia Australia,, -,, Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh,,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,,, -,, Bulgaria Burkina,,, Burma, Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire, Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

17 Table Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece,,, Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia,,, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South,,, Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

18 Table Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Malawi Malaysia Mali,, Mauritius Mexico,,,, Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,,,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

19 Table Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand,,, Togo Tunisia Turkey,,,,, Turkmenistan,, Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,,,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan,,,,,, Venezuela Vietnam,,, Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

20 Table A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / ( MT and HA) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia - Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,, -, Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

21 Table A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT and HA) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

22 Table A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT and HA) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Malawi Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

23 Table A Cotton Supply and Distribution MY / (Continued) ( MT and HA) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey,, Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan, Venezuela Vietnam, Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

24 Table : Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina,,, Armenia Australia,, -,, Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh,,,, Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,,, -,, Bulgaria Burkina,,, Burma, Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire, Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

25 Table : Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt, El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece,,, Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,,,, Indonesia,,, Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South,,, Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

26 Table : Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Malawi Malaysia Mali,, Mauritius Mexico,,, Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,,,,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Serbia Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

27 Table : Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Productio n Total Supply Use Loss Tajikistan Tanzania Thailand,,, Togo Tunisia Turkey,,,,, Turkmenistan,, Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,,,,,, Uruguay Uzbekistan,,,,,, Venezuela Vietnam,,, Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

28 Table A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (, Metric Tons) Country Beginning Productio n Use Loss Afghanistan Albania Algeria Angola Argentina Armenia Australia - Austria Azerbaijan Bahrain Bangladesh Belarus Belgium-Luxembour Benin Bolivia Brazil,, -, Bulgaria Burkina Burma Cambodia Cameroon Canada Central African Republic Chad Chile China,,,,, Colombia Congo (Kinshasa) Costa Rica Cote d'ivoire Croatia Cuba Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

29 Table A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Country Beginning Productio n Use Loss Dominican Republic Ecuador Egypt El Salvador Estonia Ethiopia France Germany Ghana Greece Guatemala Guinea Haiti Honduras Hong Kong Hungary India,,,,, Indonesia Iran Iraq Ireland Israel Italy Japan Kazakhstan Kenya Korea, North Korea, South Kyrgyzstan Latvia Lebanon Lesotho Lithuania Macedonia Madagascar Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

30 Table A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Country Beginning Productio n Use Loss Malawi Malaysia Mali Mauritius Mexico Moldova Morocco Mozambique Netherlands Nicaragua Niger Nigeria Pakistan,, Panama Paraguay Peru Philippines Poland Portugal Romania Russia Senegal Singapore Slovakia Slovenia Somalia South Africa Spain Sri Lanka Sudan Sweden Switzerland Syria Taiwan Tajikistan Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

31 Table A: Cotton Supply and Distribution by Country / (Continued) (, Metric Tons) Country Beginning Productio n Use Loss Tanzania Thailand Togo Tunisia Turkey, Turkmenistan Uganda Ukraine United Kingdom United States,, Uruguay Uzbekistan Venezuela Vietnam Yemen Zambia Zimbabwe World World,,,,, -,, Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

32 Table : World Cotton Supply and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Mktg Year Beginning Production Total Supply Use Loss Total Dom. Cons. Stock to Use % World,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, /,, -,,,,,,, / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

33 Table : United States Cotton Supply and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Mktg Year Yield Beginning Production Total Supply Use Loss Stock to Use % United States, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, /,,,,,,, / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

34 Table : Foreign Cotton Supply and Distribution (, HA and -lb. Bales) Country Mktg Year Yield Beginning Production Total Supply Use Loss Total Foreign,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, /, -,,,,,,, / Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA May

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