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PAT June, 2015; 11 (1): 56-66 ISSN: 0794-5213 Online copy available at www.patnsukjournal.

E and 3 Igbodor, F.O. 1 & 2 Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Cross River University of Technology.

1 PAT June, 2015; 11 (1): ISSN: Online copy available at Application of Logistic Model In Analysing The Socio-Economic Variables Influencing The Use of Improved Cassava Varieties In Cross River State, Nigerian 1 Tiku, N.E., 2 Ovat K.E and 3 Igbodor, F.O. 1 & 2 Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Cross River University of Technology. Obubra Campus 3 Department of Agricultural Economics and Extension, Federal University, Wukari, Taraba State ejor_tiku@yahoo.com Abstract The supply of cassava production which is a major staple food in Nigeria, has not matched the demand especially now that the government is trying to increase her non-oil export through cassava export. It is expected that increase in adoption of modern production technologies will scale-up cassava production and reduce poverty and increase food safety net in Nigeria, especially admits security challenges. A random sampling technique was carried out to select rural farmers in order to analyse the factors affecting the adoption of improved cassava over the local varieties. Data were collected and analyzed with a combination of descriptive statistical tool and logistic model. Results of the study showed that cassava production in the study area was predominantly carried out by young, active and energetic people within the age bracket of years, with more than 50% of them having greater than 30years of farming experience of the 160 respondents, majoring (40.6%) farm on family land, while the rest (59.4%) were lease holders. The result of the study also showed that 26% of the farmer still relies on their local variety, (39%) either solely or in combination with improved varieties, (35%) of the farmers uses improved variety or adopted crop management practices. The marginal effect shows that some variables have significant impact with varied strength on the technology adoption specifically on age, farming experience and level of education on the other hand; financial sources, land tenure and cassava cutting have no significant effect in the study area. Sustainable use of improved cassava technology is recommended in order to better the socio-economic lives of farmers and there should be a working government policy, which will encourage sustained use and adoption of improved technologies. Key words: Logistic model; Technology adoption; Improve variety; Cassava production. Introduction Cassava is a Major Staple Crop in Nigeria, its products being found in the daily meals of most Nigerians. Currently cassava crop is undergoing a change from a subsistent crop food on the fields of peasants, to a commercial crop grown in large quantities in plantations. This new development is due to the discovery of cassava as a cheap source of edible carbohydrate that could be processed into different forms of human food and

2 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 57 animal feeds (Nweke 2003). Cassava is also a source of raw materials for a number of industrial products, example starch, flour and ethanol. The production of cassava is relatively easy as it is tolerant to some of the environmental factors that hamper the production of other crops. It could tolerate marginal soil fertility status where other crops would fail completely. Nweke, (2003), stressed that it has a comparative production advantage over other staple crops serves to encourage its cultivation even to the resource poor farmers. The cultivation of the crop requires less labour input per unit of output than other staple crops. Cassava has the ability to grow and, give reasonable yields in low fertile soils, even on erratic rainfall. Arising from the current security challenges in Nigeria, cassava production deficiency gap has widened. This call for immediate attention of the sector and government to put in place measures to bridge this gap and boost agriculture production to feed the displaced and other citizens in and outside the country. In view of this, the process of adoption of new technology and varieties become pertinent. Therefore, this paper tends to look at the adoption of improved cassava variety as a measure of food security and economic benefit using the logistic model for the analysis in Cross River State, Nigeria. According to Fresson (1993), Nweke et al. (2002) cassava has occupied a prominent place in nation non-oil export commodity in sub-saharan African that international demand is far above supply. Therefore, there is need to increase production of cassava to meet with its demand. Cassava production is mostly done by farmers in rural communities using low production techniques. Freesco (1993); Ali (2003) ascertained that government at various levels has been trying to encourage rural farmers to adopt modern cassava production techniques in order to increase their productivities. The technologies are use of equipment, herbicides application, of insecticides, of hybrid stake and appropriate spacing. Okpukpara (2010), stated that the adoption of modern cassava technologies is a sure route out of poverty for many developing countries including Nigeria because of the role it plays in food security. However, achieving an acceptable level of available sustainable technology adoption is a function of the simplicity of adoption methods which do not appear to be available to rural farmers. There is need to increase cassava production to bridge the demand-supply gap through the use of appropriate adoption technologies for the main purpose of increasing the yield of cassava output in general and in Obubra Local Government area in particular. The major objective of this study is the application of logistic model to estimate the impact factors affecting the adoption of improved varieties of cassava in Obubra Local Government Area of Cross River State, Nigeria. The specific objectives include; i. To examine both social and economic factors affecting the adoption of improved varieties.

3 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 58 ii. To measure the economic advantages of adopting the use of improved cassava variety. Iii To analyze the socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers in Obubra Local Government Area. Material and Methods This study was conducted in Obubra Local Government Area of Cross River. Obubra is located in the central senatorial district of Cross River State bounded to the North by Yala and Ikom Local Government Areas, Yakurr and Akamkpa to the South and East respectively and it is bounded to Ebonyi State to the West. Obubra lies between latitudes ' and 'N of the equator and longitude ' and 'E of the Greenwich meridian. It has a total land mass of about sqkm and a population of about 134,255 people according to Local Government News Magazine (2006). There exist two distinct wet and dry season. The soil is predominantly sandy loam with annual rainfall of between 200mm 250mm CRADP, (2002). Obubra is endured with natural resources such as fertile soils which promote the growth of crops such as oil palm, oranges, cassava, plantain and banana. The major occupation of the people is farming. A multi- stage procedure was used; the first stage involved the purposive selection of three clans to strategically have a good representation. The three clans include Adun, Osopong and Okum. In the second stage, three villages each were randomly selected from the three clans which gave a total of nine villages. In the third stage a well structured questionnaires were administered to 160 respondents. Analytical techniques employed the use of deceptive statistics such as percentages and frequency distribution tables to describe the socio-economic characteristic of the respondents. The profit model was used to analyse both the social and economic factors affecting adoption of improved cassava varieties and to measure the economic advantage of adopting the use of improved cassava variety over the use of local varieties. The Model Specification Data analysis was done using the dichotomous logistic regression model. The logistic model was preferred over the linear and probit models because according to Greene (2000), the dichotomous logit model ensures prediction of probability of choice in the range of 0 and 1. The model unlike profit model is based on the cumulative distribution function thereby making it easier to compute and interpreted than the probit model. This model is stated thus;

4 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 59 P (yj = 1/x j ) = 1 /1 + e (- + 0 x j ). (1) P(yj = 0/xj) = e (- + 0 x j ) 1 + e (- + 0 x j ). (2) Where; 0 and 0 are unknown parameters to be estimated. P(y j = 1/x j ) = F ( 0 + j X j ). (3) and F(x) = 1/1+ e (-x)..(4) Equation (4) is the distribution function of the logistic (logit) distribution, hence the name logit model. The conditional probability involved is F(y/x j, ( x 1 ) 1 { 1 = F ( x 1 )} -1 F( x 1 ) if y = 1 F ( x 1 ) if y = 0 Y = 1 if i th improved cassava variety 0 if i th local varieties X 1j = 1-11 are the socio-economic characteristics of the jth cassa va variety is defined as X 1 = Age size (hectares) X 2 = Farm size (hectares) X 3 = Sex (dummy variable 1 = male, 0 = female) X 4 = Household size (number) X 5 = Educational level (years) X 6 = Land tenure X 7 = Extension contact (No of visits) X 8 = Farming experience (years) X 9 = Labour input (man days) X 10 = Capital (Naira) X 11 = Farm profit (Naira) The marginal probabilities of factors were determined by improved cassava varieties will be derived from the logit model as. d pr (y 1 = 1 /x 1 ) = marginal effect = 1 F 1 ( x 1 )..(5) d x 1 where; F 1 = the derivative of logistic distribution function. The elasticity of probability of improved cassava varieties will be estimated in order to determine the responsiveness of the probability with respect to jth factor and this elasticity of probability of improved cassava varieties is define as percentage change in probability to percentage change in the magnitude of factors influencing improved cassava varieties. It is the marginal effect of X 1 on P (y 1 = 1 /xi) such that the elasticity of probability is given by

5 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 60 dp(y 1 = 1 /xi) = 1 F 1 ( x 1 ) (1 F ( x 1 ) (6) dx 1 Where; F 1 1 = Estimated probability of improved cassava variety = Estimated of the logit regression coefficient with respect to jth factor. Results and Discussion Socio- Economic Characteristic of Cassava Farmers The socio-economic characteristics of cassava farmers in the study area reveals that out of 160 respondents, 40% were male while 60% were females who fall within the age bracket of years, with a percentage of 27.5% as the highest percentage involved in cassava production. Although more than half of the agricultural workers in Nigeria were women, productivity on their farms is significantly low per hectare compare to men. This result implies that improved techniques and innovations meant for farmers should be concentrated more on the women farmers. This will have more impact in the adoption process since they dominate the business. The marital status of the respondents in the study area reveals that out of the 160 respondents, 41 were single, 73 were married, 20 divorced and 26 were widow/widowers. This implies that cassava farming in the study area is mostly carried out by married couples. This is represented by 45.6% respondents. Igben (1980) argued that marital status is one of the most important factors conditioning the level of production and productivity. Also Eze and Madukwe (1999) asserted that high percentage of married persons will favour provision of cheap family labour. The Table 1 shows that 16.9% of the farmers in the study area have between 1-10 years of farming experience. Farmers that are within 21-30years and 31 and above years of experience have the percentage of 23.8% and 11.2% respectively. This can be concluded that cassava farming is not only an occupation but a way of life of the people in the study area. Hence, it does not require years of experience to be involved in cassava production. The Table1 also illustrates the educational level of the respondents. It reveals that 33% of the respondents, never attended school, 13% had primary education an33% had secondary education. The findings of the study indicate that most of the farmers in the study area had some form of educational background. This implies that they may be ready to accept and adopt positive and practicable innovations that will likely benefit them. Obinne (1991) noted that education has been considered an important variable that could enhance farmer s acceptance of new technology.

6 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 61 Table 1: Socio-Economic Characteristics of Cassava Farmers Characteristics Frequency Percentage (%) Gender 6 Male Female Marital Status Single Married Divorced Widow/widower Age years years years years and above Farming experience and above Educational Level Never attended school Primary education Secondary education Tertiary education Source: Field data, Socio-Economic Factors Sources of land acquisition and holdings; Table 2.0 shows that 40.6% of the farmers in the study area used family land, 14.4% used community land, 18.8% used intended land while 14.4% and 11.8% of the farmers used rented and purchased land respectively This implies that majority of the farmers used family land for their cassava

7 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 62 cultivation. It means that land tenure system is highly practiced and this could affect production of cassava in large scale due to land fragmentation. The Table 2 also, revealed the financial sources of respondent in the study area. It shows that 66% of the respondents financed their farm activities through personal savings, 16% through friends and relative, 8% through acquisition of bank loans, while 10% financed their farms through co-operative. It implied that majority of the farmers use their personal savings for cassava cultivation in the study area. This suggests that most of the farmers have no knowledge or access to credit facilities. Source of cassava cutting revealed that 48.7% of the cassava farmers obtain their cassava cutting from friends, 16.9% from relatives 22.5% purchase their cassava cutting, while 11.9% obtained theirs from government agencies. This implies that government agencies support to the farmers is very low. The agricultural development programme (ADP) and other agricultural agencies are yet to sufficiently supply planting materials at a higher rate which could improve the use of hybrid cassava varieties in the study area. The table 2, also shows that 25.6% of cassava farmers in the study used local cassava cuttings, 35% used improved cassava cutting while 39.4% use both. This implies that most of the cassava farmers still depend on local cuttings for cassava production. Marginal Effects of the Factors Influencing the Use of Improved Cassava Variety From the result of analysis in Table 3, the value of the coefficient of age is negative with a corresponding negative value of 0.13% marginal effect. This implies that as a farmer advances in age, his ability to increase his rate of adoption declines. He may find it difficult at this age to apply modern technology in his farm. The results of the extension agent, revealed that the contacts period had a negatives coefficient (-0.764) giving a corresponding marginal effect of (16.37%). This also indicates an inverse relationship. It implies that farmers in the study area do not come in contact with extension services as required. The tendency of increased yield will be borne out of the increased application of the outcome of the extension services received by farmers. The coefficient of Family size was positive with a marginal effect of (0.17%), this implies as family size increases, it will readily provides a cheaper source of family labour. This result is in conformity with literature, that household size has a great role to play in family labour provision in the agriculture sector. Farm experience had a positive sign with marginal effect of at 0.66%. This implies that as farming experience increases, the possibility of adopting improved cassava varieties increase with more experience.

8 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 63 Table 2: Economic Factors affecting adoption of Improve Cassava Varieties Factor Frequency Percentage (%) Sources of Land Acquisition Family Land Community Land Inherited Land Rental Land Purchase Land Financial source Personal Savings Friends and Relative Bank Loans 13 8 Co-Operatives Sources of Cassava Cutting Friends Relatives Purchases Government Agencies Extension Contacts Yes No Kinds of Cassava Cuttings Local Improved Both Source: Field data, 2014.

9 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 64 It also means that those who have a better knowledge in cassava production over a period of time have advantage to employ new technology to boost cassava production. Financial sources of farmers are also an important variable in explaining adoption in cassava production. The result shows that famers in the study area make use of their personal saving suggestion that most of the farmers have no access to credit facilities, hence, a negative coefficient of was witnessed, with a corresponding negative marginal effect of (3.9%). The result of the table 3 also suggests that the level of education is paramount to adoption. Educated farmer are more likely to adopt technologies than uneducated farmers, with a margin effect of (0.35%). This means that education influences the output of cassava production. Similar results have been found elsewhere, Ersado et al. (2004). Again, the result for sources of cassava cuttings shows that, the value of coefficient was which is positive with corresponding positive value of (2.9%) marginal effect. This implies that the source of cassava cutting significantly affect the rate of adoption and yield of cassava production. The study reveals that supply from government agencies is significantly low. The coefficient of farm size was positive with a marginal effect of 2.55%. This implies that a unit increase in the variable under static condition of other explanatory variable result in increased output level. This result is in conformity with Shehu et al. (2009) that increase in farm size implies that more output is expected, all things being equal. Therefore, the quantity of cassava produced depends on the size of the farm. Finally, the value of the coefficient of cost of production is negative (-3.11) with a corresponding negative value of 43% ( ) marginal effect. The reason for this relationship is obvious. The less the farmers ploughs into the cassava production business, the less the possibility of the rate of adoption and yield of cassava. Conclusions The purpose of this study was to examine the socio-economic factors affecting the adoption and yield of cassava production in Obubra Local Government Area of Cross River State. The marginal effect of socio-economic variables of cassava producers in the area shows that some variables have significant impact with varied strength on the technology adoption specifically on age, farming experience and level of education. On the other hand, financial sources, cost of labour, and extension service delivery have no significant effect on adoption of improved cassava. Sustainable use of technology requires understanding to both the socio-economic constants of farmers as well as policy implication to encourage the sustained use of adopted technologies.

10 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 65 Table 3 Binary Probit (Quadratic Hill Climbing) S/N VARIABLE STAND.ERROR Z-STAT PROBABILITY MARG. EFFECT Age Family size Farm experience Financial source Level of education Marital status Sex Source of cassava cutting Source of labour Farm size Profitability Extension contacts Cost of production McFadden R-squared SD. Dependent var Akaike info criterion Sowar3 criterion Hannan-Quinn criterion Restr. Deviance LR statistic Prob (LR statistic) E E Maen dep, var. S.E of regression Sum sq resid Log livelihood Deviance Restr.Log livelihood Avg. log livelihood o Recommendations 1. Since education is important in adoption of modern cassava technologies, effort should be made by government and non-government agency as well as other stakeholders in rural farm families to organize adult literacy campaign. 2. It is also important to address the problem of lack of extension agents in the rural areas. Incentives should also be provided to extension agent who agrees to work with the rural farmers. 3. There is need to encourage young and proactive population to participate in promoting farm productivity and other areas in the cassava value chain. 4. The issue of access to modern cassava technologies in terms of availability, affordability should be seriously encouraged by government and NGOs. 5. Cooperative

11 PAT 2015; 11 (1):56-66 ISSN: ; Tiku et al ; Application of Logistic Model In Analysing 66 formation among cassava farmers should be encouraged to enable agencies have access to them easily for input acquisition, distribution and marketing of products. References Akoroda, M. O. and Teri, J. M. (2004). Food security and diversification in SADC countries approach A case study of western Nigeria cassava Farmers. Indian J.of Agri. Econs 27(2): pp Ali, N. C. (2005). Profitability Analysis of Cassava Processing in Igbo-Eze south Local Govt. Area of Enugu State. Unpublished B.Agric Project, Department of economics, University of Nigeria Nsukka. pp Cross River Agricultural Development project (CRADP) (2002) Report on wetlands of Cross River State, Nigeria. pp 15. Ersado, I., Amacher G, Alwary, J. (2004) Production and land enhancement technology in Northern Ethiopia : Health, Public Investment and Sequential Adoption, Am. J. Agric Econs, 86(2) : Eze C. and Madukwe O. (1999). Adoption Behaviour of farmers in South West Nigeria : The case of cassava Farmers (Bulgaria, Erupe). Central Eu. Agric 6 (4): Freeson, P. (1993). The dynamics of cassava in Africa: A outline of research issue cosca working paper No.9. Greene, W.H. (2000). Econometric Analysis Fourth Edition, Prentice Hall Int l Editions, USA. Igben, M. S. (1980). Socio economic activity of working in some selected Nigeria rural development in Nigeria. Paper presented at the center conference, University of Benin, September 22 nd -25 th. Local Government New Magazine (2006), Cross River State. Nweke, F. I., spender, J., Lyan (2002). The cassava transformation: Africa Best Kept secret Michigan State University press, East Lansing Michigan, USA.pp 40. Okpukpara, A. (2010). Credit Constraints and Adoption of Modern Cassava Production. Afr. J. of Agric. Res. (5):23-28 Shehu, T. F., Mshelia, S. J., Tashikalma, A. K. and N Gabolo, B. H. (2009). Economics of small scale rain-fed upland rice production in Adamawa State, Nigeria. J. Res. of Agric 4(1): Swanson, B E. and Clear,J. B. (1984). The History and development of Agricultural Extension in swnson B. E. agricultural Extension reference manual, F.A.O. Rome.

ACCESS TO INFORMAL CREDIT AND ITS EFFECT ON CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN YEW A DIVISION OF OGUN STATE, NIGERIA Otunaiya, Abiodun O.

ACCESS TO INFORMAL CREDIT AND ITS EFFECT ON CASSAVA PRODUCTION IN YEW A DIVISION OF OGUN STATE, NIGERIA Otunaiya, Abiodun O. Abstract In Yewa Division of Ogun State, farmers do not have sufficient access