WEBINAR Economics and Consumer Behavior Impacting Beef Sales in the Channels. July 11, 2012

Transcription

1 WEBINAR Economics and Consumer Behavior Impacting Beef Sales in the Channels July 11, 2012

2 Today s Agenda State of the beef industry Trevor Amen, Director, B2B Marketing Intelligence Consumer behavior in the channels John Lundeen, Senior Executive Director, Market Research Marketing programs to boost beef menu and retail sales Ellen Gibson, Senior Director, B2B Marketing Programs and Education Q&A Jim Ethridge, Executive Director, B2B Marketing

3 State of the Beef Industry Presented by Trevor Amen

4 Factors Affecting Beef Prices The Wavering Balance of Supply and Demand Domestic Production Levels (Reduced Cow Herd) Trade Balance (Growing Global Demand) Domestic Economy and Demand Production Lifecycle Herd Rebuilding Input Factors Commodity Market Volatility Weather and Range Conditions

5 Weather

6 Supply ,000 Hd. (3%) 2013F Flat

7 Supply

8 Supply

9 Supply

10 Domestic Supply

11 Global Demand Trade Balance Source: USDA/FAS, CF Forecasts

12 Consumer Demand

13 Foodservice Demand

14 Retail Meat Prices

15 Economics and Consumer Behavior Presented by John Lundeen

16 Market Research Insights Overview: Consumer Confidence Consumer Beef Index Consumer Beef Index Recession Reaction Beef as an Often Used Reward The Bifurcated Consumer Beef Consumption Frequency Limiters of Demand Strategic Thoughts

17 Consumer Confidence Consumer confidence has improved somewhat but is still relatively low. 17

18 Consumer Beef Index Update

19 Dinners at Home/How Does Beef Perform Consumer expectations continue to increase with great taste and good value for money rising to the top of importance. Beef performance on a range of measure also increasing! At Home what matters (Dinner Entrée) Importance Beef Performance Jan 2007 Mar 2012 Jan 2007 Mar 2012 Extremely/Very Important Agree Completely/ Somewhat % % % % Great tasting A good value for the money Extremely safe to eat Delivers good results consistently NA 75 NA 78 Balance of taste and nutrition Great source of protein Fits a health-conscious diet Key Arrows indicate that there is a significant trending up ( )or down ( )for same season results during the 2007 to 2012 period, at 95% confidence. Source: Consumer Beef Index, Mar, 2012

20 Why Consuming Less Beef Among consumers (12%) who think they are eating less beef Extremely important Very important March 2012 Key: Significant change in same season results ( ) Too expensive relative to other meat Other meats seem healthier Limiting cholesterol or fat Health reasons 31% 29% 28% 28% 18% 23% 25% 20% 49% 52% 53% 48% High Impact Price and Nutrition/ Health Concerns More price-conscious now 24% 24% 48% Concerned about factory farming 23% 12% 35% Prefer other meal options 18% 16% 34% Eating more plant-based protein More worried about safety 17% 17% 19% 12% 29% 36% Moderate Impact Hard to digest 15% 13% 28% Discovered new non-beef recipes 13% 15% 28% Family member prefers to avoid beef 11% 11% 22% Grilling less Steak dinner takes too long 10% 9% 12% 13% 22% 22% Low Impact Cuts you like not available 7% 9% 16% Running out of ways to make beef Base: Those eating less beef (N = 246) 38f: As you noted earlier you have been eating less beef in the last six months, how important or what impact did each of the following have on your decision to eat less beef? 5% 5% 10% Source: Consumer Beef Index, Mar, 2012

21 Effect of Current Economic Trends March 2012 Home Dining Out Buying/Ordering Beef More 24% 15% Buying/Ordering Beef Less 27% 35% Specific Buying more beef at sale prices (home) 34% Buying more beef meals from the "price specials" menu 23% Purchasing fewer steaks, more hamburgers when eating out Buying less steak, more ground beef (home) Buying less expensive cuts of beef (home) 15% 15% 20% Trading Down Behaviors Base: Beef Eaters (N = 1,291) 40d/e: In response to current economic trends, which of the following describe your purchases of beef for use at home over the last 3 months/your beef purchasing when eating out at restaurants or other locations over the last 3 months? (Select one of the first three and any of the others that apply) Source: Consumer Beef Index, Mar, 2012

22 Preference for Beef Economizing Before Shopping Since 2008 online coupon use has increased by 360% Now in 3 rd Season on TLC 91% of shoppers plan shopping lists Source: NCH Annual Topline U.S. CPG Coupon Facts Report for Year-end 2011

23 The Impact on Broadly Used Luxury Foods 95 percent of consumers said they were dealing with high food prices by frequently (63%) or occasionally (32%) buying less of foods they consider luxury or special occasion foods. When asked what they considered luxury or special occasion foods, the highest percentage of consumers (42%) named steak. Type of Food Percent of Responses Steak 42 Seafood 16 Lobster 13 Desserts 12 Shrimp 10

24 Beef Expensive but Worth It Beef s high-end image is what supports its price value with consumers Middle 2 Box (Net) 87% Too expensive and definitely not worth it 9% Expensive but worth it 53% Just about right Inexpensive and worth it So inexpensive that I'd actually doubt its quality 34% 4% Platform Testing Analysis, September, 2011

25 Beef s Popularity Makes It a Reward A beef reward occasion can be as simple as getting through to the end of the week Better reward after long week of work Men more likely to consider strip steak a reward than women (67% vs. 59%). One-in-four women considers chicken a better reward. Consumers who prefer pork tend to skew older (55+). Source: Consumer Perceptions of Beef at Foodservice, February, 2012

26 State of the Consumer Income Employment Situation - Slow Improvement 20% 30% 50% Low Income Households Middle Income Households High Income Households Household income disparity has increased Low/moderate income families are also high frequency beef consumers Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

27 State of Consumption Recession starting in had obvious impact on frequency of eating beef and chicken. Protein price increases in late 2011/2012 also moderating frequency of usage Consumption Frequency: Overall Servings Base: Total (N=1,000+ per wave)) Q.19: Thinking about all of your meals breakfast, lunch, dinner and snacks both at home and away from home, how frequently do you eat each of the following types of food? Q.20: How many times did you eat this type of food in the past week? Jan'07 May'07 Feb'08 Jul'08 Mar'09 Jul'09 Feb'10 Jul'10 Feb'11 Jul'11 Mar' Past Week Servings (mean) Chicken Beef Source: Consumer Beef Index, Mar, 2012

28 Limiters of Demand ( Hurdles )

29 Limiters Ranked 1 st Tier Price Nutrition Can t Microwave Extreme Limiters - Where over 39% of beef eaters frequently or occasionally limit their beef as a result Frequently/ Occasionally limit the amount of beef you buy % The cost of a steak meal is very high at restaurants. 72 The cost per pound of steak is very high at the grocery store. 69 The cost per pound of ground beef is very high at the grocery store. 55 It is healthier to eat more chicken or fish and less beef. 54 It is not healthy to eat beef every day. 50 It is sound nutritional advice to balance beef consumption by eating other proteins. 46 The cost of a hamburger or other ground beef meals is very high at restaurants. 43 Ground beef can be easily replaced in recipes by alternatives like ground turkey or ground chicken. 41 Steak does not have good results when microwaved. 40 There are much healthier choices than beef for protein. 39 Eating beef regularly is likely to contribute to heart-related health problems % + Impact

30 Thinking Strategically 1.Provide incentives to buy 2.Increase value to match price Nutrition 3.Offer a range of steak sizes 4.Sell beef as a reward for all of life s celebrations

31 Programs to Boost Beef Sales Presented by Ellen Gibson

32 Beef Checkoff Resources & Support beef advertising and awareness Outdoor advertising Radio advertising Print advertising BeefItsWhatsforDinner.com Online advertising Social media campaigns Consumer education

33 Beef Alternative Merchandising

34 Slice n Save 24% of shoppers surveyed are already buying beef in bulk to stretch their food dollars!

35 American Heart Association The heart-check mark boosts incremental sales an average of 5% when certified products are merchandised with POS.

36 Easy Fresh Cooking 46% of shoppers surveyed are more likely to purchase new or different cuts as a result of on-pack labeling.

37 Promotions

38 Menu Merchandising

39 More Menu Merchandising

40 Beef Training Tools Foodservice Retail

41 Websites BeefFoodservice.com BeefRetail.org

42 State Beef Council Resource Relationships Individualized Marketing Plans Education

43 It s Your Turn What questions do you have for our panel and our State Beef Councils?

44 For More Information BeefFoodservice.com BeefRetail.org