SOYBEANS: WORLD PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND

Transcription

1 SOYBEANS: WORLD PRODUCTION CONTINUES TO EXPAND OCTOBER 2001 Darrel Good 2001-No. 7 Summary The USDA s October Crop Production report forecast the 2001 U.S. soybean crop at billion bushels. That forecast is 149 million bushels larger than the record crop of 2000 and 73 million larger than the September forecast. World soybean production in is projected at billion bushels, 275 million larger than the crop. South American production is expected to grow by 132 million bushels, reaching a total of billion bushels. Production of oilseeds other than soybeans is expected to grow at a more modest rate, reflecting declines in sunflower and rapeseed production. Palm oil production is forecast to increase again in U.S. and world consumption of soybeans is expected to continue to grow, led by a 5 percent increase in soybean meal consumption. Stocks of soybeans and soybean oil are projected to remain large, however. Prices are projected to continue at the low level of the past three and one-half years until a supply problem develops. For the marketing year. U.S. soybean prices are forecast at an average of $4.40. Producer pricing decisions will continue to be tied to the use of the marketing loan program. Supply Prospects Stocks of soybeans at the beginning of the marketing year (September 1, 2001) are estimated at 248 million bushels. Those stocks are well below the level projected a year ago due to higher rates of exports and domestic crush than were anticipated. The domestic soybean crush was particularly large in the last half of the marketing year (Table 1) as soybean meal exports responded to the ban on meat and bone meal feeding in Europe. For the year, crush reached a record billion bushels, eclipsing the previous ( ) record by 46 million bushels. Exports slowed significantly in the last quarter of the year, due to competition from South America and a slowing of Chinese imports, but still reached a record one billion bushels. In its October Crop Production report, the USDA forecast the 2001 U.S. soybean crop at billion bushels (Table 2). That forecast exceeds the September forecast by 73 million bushels, is 149 million bushels larger than the 2000 crop, and is larger than anticipated by the market. The large crop forecast reflects record acreage of soybeans and the highest average yield since the record of Planted acreage of soybeans in 2001 is estimated at a record 75.4 million, about 1.2 million more than planted last year, but 1.2 million less than indicated in the USDA s March Prospective Plantings report (Table 3). The largest increase in acreage continues to be in the western corn belt states (Table 4). Combined acreage in Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota account for 50.2 percent of the U.S. acreage, compared to 41 percent when U.S. acreage reached a modern low in Soybean planting has expanded by more than 14 million acres in

2 those states since Acreage outside of the midwest and plains state now accounts for only 16 percent of the U.S. acreage. The U.S. average soybean yield is now forecast at 39.2 bushels per acre, one bushel above the September forecast and 1.1 bushel above last year s average. The forecast is the second largest average for the U.S., 2.2 bushels below the 1994 record (Table 5). The relatively stable pattern of soybean yields since 1996 is in contrast to the pattern of the 1980s and early 1990s when average yields were trending higher, but were highly variable (Figure 1). Compared to last year s yields, significant increases are expected in the southeast and in Kansas and Nebraska. Yields in Michigan and Minnesota are down from those of a year ago. Indiana is expected to have the highest average yield of 49 bushels per acre, followed by Illinois and Nebraska (44), and Iowa and Ohio (43). Those four states account for almost half of the projected crop. The pattern of a lower September soybean production forecast followed by a larger October forecast was also experienced in 1987, 1989, 1991, and 1996 (Table 2). The September to October increase in those four years ranged from 9 to 76 bushels (0.05 to 3.3 percent). This year s 2.6 percent increase is within the range of experience. In the four previous years, the November forecast exceeded the October forecast three times, in a range of 11 to 57 bushels (0.05 to 2.4 percent). In the fourth year (1987), the November forecast was 8 million bushels below the October forecast. The January estimate exceeded the October forecast in 1991 and 1996, was the same as the October forecast in 1989 and was below the October forecast in The magnitude of change in forecasts so far this year most resemble Based on previous patterns, it is likely that the final estimate for the 2001 crop will be within 30 million bushels of the October forecast. The October forecast is used in this analysis. Consumption Still Rising Record domestic soybean meal consumption and increasing meal exports resulted in a record large domestic crush of soybeans in the marketing year. Crush was especially large in the last quarter (summer) of the marketing year. Crush during that quarter accounted for 24.2 percent of the marketing year total, the largest percentage in 10 years. For the current year, domestic meal consumption is expected to expand at a slower rate as hog numbers stabilize, the number of cattle on feed decline, and broiler production expands by an expected 2.5 percent. A 2 percent increase in domestic use would bring the total to million tons (Table 6). Export sales of U.S. soybean meal as of October 11 stood at nearly 2.1 million tons, 80 percent larger than on the same date last year. Larger sales to Canada accounted for much of the increase. For the year, the USDA expects meal exports to decline modestly from the level of last year. World consumption of meal is expected to grow, but the U.S. is expected to lose export market share to South America. For the year, meal exports are projected at 7.4 million tons, bringing total use to million tons. Allowing for 50,000 tons of meal imports and a 50,000 ton reduction in year ending stocks, about billion bushels of U.S. soybeans will have to be crushed during the marketing year to meet expected meal consumption. That projection assumes a yield of 48 pounds of meal per bushel of 2

3 soybeans, the same as the yield of the past year. If billion bushels of soybeans are crushed to meet meal consumption, about billion pounds of soybean oil will be produced, if the yield remains near the pounds per bushel of the past year. A typical 2 percent expansion in domestic oil consumption would project to a marketing year total of billion pounds. Prospects for U.S. soybean oil exports have improved due to expanding world vegetable oil consumption and expected reductions in sunflower and rapeseed production. The largest reduction in sunflower production is coming in the former Soviet Union, while rapeseed production is declining in Canada. Larger world palm oil production will continue to present a problem for U.S. soybean oil exports. At million tons, palm oil production is expected to be up about 4 percent this year. Production of major vegetable oil crops other than soybeans is expected to increase about 2.3 percent (Table 8). Soybean oil exports from the U.S. might also get a boost from increased food aid. The USDA currently projects U.S. soybean oil exports during the marketing year at 2.45 billion pounds. That is 1.05 billion more than exported in , but 100 million less than projected last month. At this early stage of the marketing year outstanding commercial export sales of soybean oil are a little larger than a year ago. If exports do reach 2.45 billion pounds, total consumption projects to billion pounds, leaving year ending stocks at about 2.4 billion pounds. Year ending stocks would be smaller than stocks at the beginning of the year, but still at a burdensome level (Table 9). World trade of soybeans increased by 17 percent in the marketing year, reaching a record 2 billion bushels. The U.S. accounted for half of the world exports, but South American exports grew by 42 percent during the past year. Both the European Union and China increased imports significantly; 13 and 31 percent, respectively. The European Union accounted for nearly 33 percent of all imports and China accounted for 24 percent of the world imports. China has introduced some uncertainty into import prospects for the year ahead by announcing some unspecified requirements for importing GMO soybeans. As of October 11, China had purchased 36 million bushels of U.S. soybeans for delivery during the current marketing year, but had imported only 4 million bushels. Total sales plus accumulated exports of U.S. soybeans as of October 11 (to all destinations) had reached 369 million bushels, 12 percent more than on the same date last year. However, shipments to all destinations during the first six weeks of the marketing year totaled only 63 million bushels, 43 percent less than cumulative shipments of a year ago. Prospects for another large crop in South America in 2002 means that competition for U.S. exports will remain keen. The USDA currently projects that the crop currently being planted in South America will result in production of billion bushels, 5.3 percent larger than the crop harvested in 2001 (Table 10). Soybean acreage is expected to increase by 11 percent in Brazil and 4 percent in Argentina (Table 11). If that crop materializes, it will be difficult for the U.S. to export a billion bushels of soybeans in A projection of 975 million is used here (Table 7). Price Prospects Based on the projections developed here, stocks of soybeans in the U.S. will grow to 360 million bushels by the end of the marketing year. That would be the largest level of stocks in 15 years. As a percentage of use (12.9 percent), however, stocks would be the largest in three years. The season s average price is expected to remain well below the loan rate, and below the level of the past three years (Figure 2). A marketing year average of only $4.40 is projected here. That projection would prove to be too low if the 3

4 South American crop runs into difficulty or if the 2002 U.S. growing season is unfavorable. In the near term, however, prospects of abundant supplies are expected to keep prices under pressure. per bushel. The range has been less than $1.00 only twice in the past 28 years ( and ). That history suggests that cash prices this year (central Illinois) might be expected to trade between $3.90 and $5.00 per bushel. Pricing Decisions What about seasonal price prospects? The extremes in the spot cash price of soybeans (central Illinois) tend to occur in the first or the last quarter of the marketing year. Over the past 28 seasons, the highest daily spot price of soybeans during the September through August marketing year occurred in September, October, or November 9 times and in June, July, or August 13 times. The high occurred in January once, April once, and May four times. The lowest spot cash price occurred in September, October, or November 12 times and in June, July, or August 13 times. The low was in December once, March once, and April once. Over the past three seasons, the lowest daily spot cash price for soybeans in central Illinois ranged from $3.875 to $ The lowest price to date in the marketing year is $4.065 reached on October 15. History would suggest that cash soybean prices are nearing a seasonal, if not marketing year, low. Odds favor a marketing year low, although new lows could come next summer if prospects favor another large crop. If the marketing year low is being established now, the marketing year high would be expected in the period May through August of Over the past three seasons the range from low cash price to high cash price in central Illinois has been from $1.05 to $1.92 Decisions on pricing the remainder of the 2001 crop will be tied closely to the use of the marketing loan program and reflect the soybean price structure. The market is currently offering a spot price well below the loan rate. The premium for January delivery is relatively small ($.10 in central Illinois) and the premium for June 2002 delivery (assuming a typical basis) is about $.28. This relatively small carry in the market does not make forward pricing for later delivery very attractive. One pricing alternative to consider on a portion of the crop is to establish the loan deficiency payment (LDP) at harvest and hold the crop unpriced in anticipation of a post harvest price recovery. This involves risk in that the crop is not protected from further price declines and storage costs are incurred. A second alternative is to place the crop under loan, lock in the repayment rate for a period of 60 days, and store the crop unpriced. The 60-day lock-in provides some protection if prices are lower at the end of the 60 day period. A third alternative is to establish the LDP at harvest and deliver the soybeans on a basis contract. This strategy has the same risk as establishing the LDP and storing the crop unpriced, except that it does not require storage costs. This may be attractive in a high cost storage situation. A fourth strategy is to establish the LDP, sell soybeans on the spot market and buy at-themoney call options (or deliver the soybeans on a minimum price contract). This is similar to the effect of a basis contract except that it is more expensive, but it also provides some protection from declining prices. At this 4

5 writing, at-the-money call options were priced near $.20 for March and near $.25 for July. A fifth alternative, of course, is to establish the LDP and price the soybeans for delivery at harvest, effectively taking the loan rate as a net price. Some portfolio of these five strategies might be considered as well. Issued by Darrel Good Extension Economist University of Illinois 5

6 Table 1. Soybean Quarterly Balance Sheet million bushels September 1 stocks Production 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,757.8 TOTAL 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,052.0 September-November Crush Export Seed, residual TOTAL December 1 stocks 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,239.8 Crush Export Seed, residual TOTAL March 1 stocks 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,403.9 Crush Export Seed, residual TOTAL June 1 stocks Crush Export Seed, residual TOTAL September 1 stocks Annual Crush 1, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,641.2 Export ,000.0 Seed, residual TOTAL 2, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,803.10

7 Table 2. United States Soybean Production Estimates million bushels August 1 2,130 1,880 2,017 2,293 1,843 2,035 1,959 1,979 2,000 1,474 1,905 1,836 1,869 2,079 1,902 2,282 2,246 2,300 2,744 2,727 2,870 2,989 2,867 September 1 2,174 1,831 2,089 2,314 1,535 2,028 2,063 1,980 1,957 1,472 1,889 1,835 1,817 2,085 1,909 2,316 2,285 2,270 2,746 2,909 2,778 2,900 2,834 October 1 2,213 1,757 2,107 2,300 1,517 1,972 2,108 1,992 1,968 1,501 1,926 1,823 1,934 2,108 1,891 2,458 2,190 2,346 2,722 2,769 2,696 2,823 2,907 November 1 2,236 1,775 2,077 2,300 1,535 1,902 2,129 2,009 1,960 1,512 1,937 1,904 1,962 2,167 1,834 2,523 2,183 2,403 2,736 2,763 2,673 2,777 January 1 2,268 1,817 2,030 2,277 1,595 1,861 2,099 2,007 1,905 1,539 1,927 1,922 1,986 2,197 1,809 2,558 2,152 2,382 2,727 2,757 2,643 2,770 FINAL 2,261 1,798 1,989 2,190 1,636 1,861 2,099 1,943 1,938 1,549 1,924 1,926 1,987 2,190 1,870 2,515 2,174 2,380 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,758

8 Table 3. Soybean Planting Intentions, Actual Plantings, and Acres Harvested Year January Intentions Mar./April Intentions June/July Intentions Actual Harvested Acreage million acres a a 65.8 b a a (74.137) a February 1 b May 1

9 Table 4. Planted Acres of Soybeans by Region Western Corn Belt a Eastern Corn Belt b Mid-South c Southeast d East Coast e United States Region 000 acres % 000 acres % 000 acres % 000 acres % 000 acres % 000 acres % , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , a Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota b Illinois, Indiana, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin c Arkansas, Kentucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Texas d Alabama, Florida, Georgia, North Carolina, South Carolina e Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West Virginia

10 Table 5. United States Soybean Yield Estimates million bushels August September October November January FINAL

11 Table 6. Soybean Meal Balance Sheet -- Years Beginning October thousand tons Beginning stocks Production 27,719 28,325 29,831 30,364 30,514 33,270 32,527 34,210 38,176 37,792 37,623 39,409 39,790 TOTAL a 27,982 28,688 30,183 30,687 30,788 33,483 32,825 34,524 38,443 38,109 38,003 39,750 40,163 Domestic 22,291 22,934 23,007 24,251 25,283 26,542 26,611 27,320 28,895 30,657 30,378 31,850 32,490 Exports 5,319 5,469 6,946 6,232 5,356 6,717 6,002 6,994 9,330 7,122 7,331 7,575 7,400 TOTAL 27,610 28,403 29,953 30,483 30,639 33,260 32,613 34,314 38,225 37,779 37,710 39,425 39,890 Ending stocks Price b $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ $ a Includes imports b Bulk, Decatur, Illinois 44%

12 Table 7. Soybean Balance Sheet -- Years Beginning September a a million bushels Carryin Production 1,924 1,926 1,987 2,190 1,870 2,515 2,174 2,380 2,689 2,741 2,654 2,758 2,907 TOTAL b 2,109 2,167 2,320 2,470 2,168 2,729 2,514 2,573 2,826 2,944 3,006 3,052 3,158 Crush 1,146 1,187 1,254 1,279 1,276 1,405 1,369 1,436 1,597 1,590 1,579 1,641 1,658 Export , Seed, feed, residual TOTAL 1,870 1,838 2,041 2,178 1,954 2,394 2,331 2,441 2,626 2,596 2,716 2,804 2,798 Carryout U.S. Average price $5.70 $5.75 $5.58 $5.60 $6.40 $5.48 $6.77 $7.35 $6.47 $4.93 $4.63 $4.55 $4.40 a Projected b Includes Imports

13 Table 8. World Oilseed and Soybean Production Major Oilseeds Soybeans Year United States Ex-United Stated Total United States Ex-United States Total million metric tons WASDE Oct.12, 2001 and earlier.

14 Table 9. Soybean Oil Balance Sheet -- Years Beginning October c million pounds Beginning stocks 1,715 1,305 1,786 2,239 1,555 1,103 1,137 2,015 1,520 1,382 1,520 1,995 2,800 Production 13,003 13,406 14,346 13,778 13,951 15,613 15,240 15,752 18,143 18,081 17,824 18,480 18,632 TOTAL a 14,740 14,728 16,132 16,027 15,574 16,733 16,472 17,821 19,723 19,546 19,427 20,550 21,512 Domestic 12,082 12,163 12,246 13,053 12,941 12,916 13,465 14,263 15,262 15,655 16,055 16,350 16,680 Exports 1, ,647 1,419 1,529 2, ,037 3,079 2,372 1,376 1,400 2,450 TOTAL 13,435 12,942 13,893 14,472 14,471 15,596 14,457 16,300 18,341 18,027 17,432 17,750 19,130 Ending stocks 1,305 1,786 2,239 1,555 1,103 1,137 2,015 1,520 1,382 1,520 1,995 2,800 2,382 Average Price b a Includes imports b Bulk, Decatur, Illinois 44% c Projected

15 Table 10. Soybean Production by Country Year United States Brazil a Argentina a Paraguay a China Other World All Foreign million bushels , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,975 1, , ,162 1, , ,437 1, , ,056 1, , ,421 1, , ,565 1, , ,601 1, , ,812 1, , ,506 1, , ,945 2, , ,826 1, , ,946 1, , ,308 2, , ,318 2, , ,057 2, , ,591 2, ,380 1, ,857 2, ,689 1, ,806 3, ,741 1, ,872 3, ,654 1, ,873 3, ,758 1, ,363 3, ,907 1, ,638 3,731 a Harvested in the spring of the following year.

16 Table 11. South American Soybean Area, Yield and, Production, 1988 to Date Brazil Argentina Paraguay Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Area Yield Production Year mil. ha. t/ha. mil.t mil. ha. t/ha. mil. t. mil. ha. t/ha. mil. t Source: USDA, FAS