Are We Drowning in Data?

Transcription

1 Are We Drowning in Data? Which Metrics Should I Monitor? Randall Greenfield 2013 Vita Plus Dairy Summit 1

2 DHM, 9/30 70 Data Points/Lacta on 7,000 Data Points/Lactation 2

3 Drowning in Data? More Sophisticated Real-Time Cow Data Every Day Daily Milk Weights Dry Matter Intakes Conductivity Milking Times/Flows Milk Components Rumen ph Pedometers Body Temperature Activity Genomic Scores Rumination Time Body Weights Components Drowning in Data? You should know your : DMI, FE, IOFC DIM, VWP, HDR, CR, PR FCM, ECM, MCM, MLM, ME TOR, DR, DOA ROA, ROE, EBITDA 3

4 Topics Feed Costs Reproduction Animal Flow Production $$Profitability Feeding Costs are almost impossible to compare across herds Forage source/quality Cost or Market Value? All diets included (calves, heifers, dry cows?) Feed Markets/Contracts Wet byproducts Accrual, Enterprise Accounting Dairy buys feed from Farm 4

5 Feeding Total Feed Costs Per head; Per cwt Purchased Feed Costs Milk to Feed Ratio Feed Efficiency Income Over Feed Costs Feeding Simple measure of feed costs per head (total or purchased) No production information A constantly moving target Feed costs per cwt are better, but cost only No value of production (components) 5

6 Feeding Dairy Feed Efficiency Lb milk/lb DMI Great idea Crude measure No $$ sensitivity Not easy to manipulate 6

7 Feeding Income Over Feed Costs Probably the best measure we have Need to use accurate feed costs Need to use a relatively stable milk price 12-mo average price built with components? Feeding A few examples Fat = $1.66/lb Prot = $3.282/lb OS = 5.8%; $0.411/lb 7

8 Feeding A B Lb Milk Fat% 3.50% 3.80% Prot% 3.00% 3.20% Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.50 Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.22 $7.65 IOFC, $/hd $9.74 $9.82 Feeding A B Lb Milk Fat% 3.80% 3.80% Prot% 3.20% 3.20% Feed Cost, $/hd $6.50 $6.65 Feed Cost, $/cwt $7.39 $7.39 IOFC, $/hd $11.81 $

9 Feeding A B Lb Milk Fat% 3.80% 3.60% Prot% 3.20% 3.10% Feed Cost, $/hd $6.65 $6.80 Feed Cost, $/cwt $8.11 $7.39 IOFC, $/hd $11.08 $11.14 Feeding IOFC probably the best measure Keep a history of your farm s numbers Difficult to compare across farms Home-grown feeds are difficult cost vs. value 9

10 Reproduction Why do you want to get your cows/hfrs pregnant? Improve herd genetics? Provide replacements for culled cattle? Lower or keep DIM low (more milk)? Grow herd size? Sell Breeding Stock? Reproduction Heat Detection Rate, Service Rate, Submission Rate, Insemination Intensity Conception Rate Voluntary Waiting Period Pregnancy Rate Calving Interval DIM, Days Open 10

11 Reproduction Reproduction 11

12 Reproduction Service Rate = 2922/4758 = 61% Preg Rate = 1029/4637 = 22% What about Aborts? Can be wide differences between farms Preg Check frequency; Preg Check timing; Actual Abortion Rate Abortion Rate = 118/1029 = 11% Effective Preg Rate = ( )/4637 =20% Reproduction Conception Rate = 1301/( ) = 38% 12

13 Reproduction Preg Rate = ultimate measure of repro efficiency More important for non-bst herds to be efficient Late lactation pregnancies = no milk Herds with poor PR may still be generating adequate replacement rates if not growing Preg Inventory an important metric Reproduction 13

14 Reproduction Herds with excellent PRs (and/or sexed semen?) need a plan to profit from extra replacements Milk all of them? What if 60% 1 st Lact? Sell springers? Dairy A No Sexed Semen 100.0% % 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% SS Births Survival Rep Rate % Lact1 Herd Size 0.0%

15 Dairy B Sexed Semen 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% 30.0% 20.0% 10.0% SS Births Survival Rep Rate % Lact1 Herd Size 0.0% Animal Flow Cull Rate; Turnover Rate Number of cattle that left the herd divided by the avg cattle present in the same period of time Turnover Rate vs. Replacement Rate Buying animals to maintain herd size = problem 15

16 Animal Flow Voluntary or Involuntary? Most important distinctions are Sold or Dead ; Dairy or not By Parity (Lact=1) 12-month Rolling removes seasonality 16

17 Production Testday milk production RHA Bulk tank average Fat% Prot% FCM; ECM; MCM? Follow the $$... Production Milk Check Graphic 17

18 Production October, 2013 Fluid $/cwt $ OS $0.39 $34,888 Volume $1.00 $15,783 PPD $0.33 $5,208 Quality $0.34 $5,366 SCC/Prot (½) $0.06 $995 Total $3.94 $62,241 Production October, 2013 $/cwt $ Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241 Butterfat $6.24 $98,453 Protein $10.90 $172,030 TOTAL $21.08 $332,724 18

19 Production October, 2013 $/cwt $ Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241 Butterfat $6.24 $98,453 Protein $10.90 $172,030 TOTAL $21.08 $332,724 Production October, 2013 $/cwt $ Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241 Butterfat $6.24 $98,453 Protein $10.90 $172,030 TOTAL $21.08 $332,724 19

20 Production October, 2013 $/cwt $ Fluid (total) $3.94 $62,241 Butterfat $6.24 $98,453 Protein $10.90 $172,030 TOTAL $21.08 $332,724 Production October, 2013 $/cwt % Fluid (total) $ % Butterfat $ % Protein $ % TOTAL $ % 20

21 Production July, 2013 $/cwt % Fluid (total) $ % Butterfat $ % Protein $ % TOTAL $ % Production March, 2010 Class III = $12.78 $/cwt % Fluid (total) $ % Butterfat $ % Protein $ % TOTAL $ % 21

22 Monthly Share of Milk Check 100.0% 90.0% 80.0% 70.0% 60.0% 50.0% 40.0% F+P 30.0% 20.0% Fluid 10.0% 0.0% 12/1/2010 2/1/2011 4/1/2011 6/1/2011 8/1/ /1/ /1/2011 2/1/2012 4/1/2012 6/1/2012 8/1/ /1/ /1/2012 2/1/2013 4/1/2013 6/1/2013 8/1/ /1/2013 % of Recent Milk Check 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% %Fluid %F+P 20% 10% 0% A B C D E F 22

23 Production In FMMO 30 ~20% of milk check from fluid ~80% of milk check fat + protein Our production metric should focus on lb fat + lb protein FCM, ECM, SCM, MCM, or CY? All per cow measures Production FCM = Fat Corrected Milk ECM = Energy Corrected Milk SCM = Solids Corrected Milk MCM = Money Corrected Milk CY = Cheese Yield All of these are in lb/cow Why Not Just lb fat + lb protein/cow? Or per stall; per parlor stall, etc. 23

24 Profitability Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement) Current Year Short Term Net Income (black or red) Breakeven Milk Price Account for Basis Class III 24

25 Profitability Cash Flow (Profit/Loss; Income Statement) Operating Expenses as % of Gross Income Enough left to pay debt? Profitability Balance Sheet Long Term How much Debt? Debt/cow Debt/cwt P&I Pmts/cwt Equity Position How much of your assets do you own vs. lender? 25

26 Profitability Balance Sheet Net Worth or Equity Assets Liabilities What s left after selling everything? Conservative Asset Values Earned Equity vs Asset Appreciation Change in Net Worth Year to year Profitability Cash Flow/Balance Sheet Return on Assets Net Income/Assets Interest on a CD 26

27 Summary Unlimited sources and data metrics for your dairy Find some key ones for your business Most useful if you track them over time Questions? 27