[Деловое общение] Grain and SBM Market Research Daniel Trading SA

Transcription

1 [Деловое общение] Grain and SBM Market Research [Название April организации] 27 Daniel Trading SA

2 Global positioning of Ukrainian agricultural market Production 7% 6% 7% #4 #6 #8 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 barley Ukraine barley other corn Ukraine corn other wheat Ukraine wheat other Export #3 5% 5% 9% Source: USDA 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 barley Ukraine barley other #4 4% 4% 3% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 corn Ukraine corn other #6 7% % 9% 4/5 5/6 6/7 Feb '7 wheat Ukraine wheat other 2

3 Corn, mln MT Corn in dynamics CBOT prices, USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks Harvesting in South America Harvesting all corn regions Harvesting in South America Harvesting all corn regions Harvesting in South America Ukrainian market FOB Ukr, USD/MT CPT Ukr, USD/MT 4/5 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 3

4 Corn, mln MT Production vs The largest importers United States Country Country China Country Japan Mexico European Union Korea Egypt Iran Vietnam Brazil Country Country 58 6 European Union Country Netherlans Italy Iran Spain Main Ukrainian buyers in Egypt China Argentina Ukraine,,5,,5 2, 2,5 3, Country Country Country Country Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 4

5 Wheat, mln MT Wheat in dynamics Harvesting new crop MATIFF prices USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation lot of cheap corn+ Winter crop expectation Harvesting new crop Ukrainian market / FOB Ukraine, USD/MT CPT Ukraine, USD/MT Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 5

6 Wheat, mln MT 35 Production vs The largest importers 6 45 European Union 3 29 China India United States Russian Federation 25 6 Australia Korea India Bangladesh Egypt Indonesia Algeria Brazil Main Ukrainian buyers in 26 Thailand Indonesia Egypt Canada Ukraine Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 6

7 Barley, mln MT Barley in dynamics Barley world, USD/MT Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks Area Harvested Barley BCE EXW Barley France FOB Ukrainian Market, USD/MT /7 Apr '7 5/6 4/ Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine Barley, FOB Ukr Barley, CPT Ukr 7

8 Barley, mln MT Production vs The largest importers European Union Australia Japan Iran China, Peoples Republic of Saudi Arabia Ukraine Russian Federation Main Ukrainian buyers in 26 Algeria Jordan Argentina 5/7 6/7 Apr '7 Canada China Libya SA Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 8

9 SBM, mln MT Production vs 9 2 The largest importers China 4 4 United States Production Production Export Argentina Production Export SBM in dynamics Brazil Production Export European Union Vietnam Indonesia Prices compearing Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks SBM EXW Ukr, USD/MT SBM Argentina FOB, USD/MT Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine 9

10 SFM, mln MT Production vs The largest importers 3 4 Ukraine Russian Federation,5,6,8,9 Belarus Turkey 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 European Union European Union Argentina SFM in dynamics 46 Prices, USD/MT /7 Apr '7 5/6 4/5 SFM, FOB Ukr SBM Argentina FOB Production Beginning Stocks Imports Total Supply Exports Ending Stocks Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine

11 Oils, mln MT World Consumption Prices, USD/MT SFO, FOB Ukr SBO, FCA Ukr SBO CBOT SFO SBO Ukraine 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 5/6 6/7 Apr '7 China USA Argentina Main Importers 26 vs 25 2 Main Importers 26 vs /5 5/6 6/7*,9,9,7,9 olive oil rapeseed oil soybean oil sunflower oil Sources: USDA, State Statistics Service of Ukraine China, Peoples Republic of Turkey EU India China Algeria India

12 Ukraine, KPI corn All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha wheat barley All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha All sown area, ha Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha 2

13 Ukraine, KPI soya All sown area, ha Export, MT SBO Export, MT Production, MT Yield, ce/ha SBO Production, MT sunflower All sown area, ha Export, MT SFO Export, MT Production, MT SFO Production, MT Yield, ce/ha 3

14 Ukraine 26 geography 6,53 ml t OR $ 2,5 Bl Egypt+Mexico Wheat TOTAL 35,6 ml t or $ 3,8 Bl 4,638 ml t OR $ 2,26 Bl >EU OR Mexico Corn 4,5 ml t OR $,62 Bl China Barley 4

15 Favourable geographic location Estimated Bulk Grain freight in USD per m/t 3, - 5, m/t Egypt Spain East Med Saudi Arabia China Ukraine Brazil n/a France/Germany n/a n/a U.S n/a Argentina n/a Source: UCAB, Hammersmithltd 5

16 Seasonal price fluctuation CPT Ukr aine Forecast 27 Areas of winter grain crops Year ha Wheat, ha including Barley, ha feb march apr may jun jul aug sep oct nov dec corn FW MW 6

17 Agriculture sector potential According to years projection plan, Ukraine is expected to increase yields further among all the key agriculture products 9% Ukraine 25 Ukraine % 6,6 Ukrainian grain, m t Forecasted longterm run-rate ,9 4,2 5, 5% 9% 2,7 2,8 2,2 2,4 Wheat Maize Other coarse grains Oilseeds Average yield projections (25-225) t/ha Ukrainian grain volumes, m t Australia United States Canada Russian Federation Ukraine,8 9,7 6, 6, 4,6 3,8 3,2 3, 2,8,9 2,4 2, 2,3,2, Wheat Corn Other grains Wheat Corn Oilseeds Source: State Statistics Service of Ukraine, OECD-FAO, UCAB 7