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1 Cotton Sugar Soyben RM Seed Castor seed Turmeric Jeera 0 NCoMM NCML COMMODITY MARKET MONITOR ANSWERS & LUCKY WINNER OF PREVIOUS WEEK S MktYard.com Weekly Commodity Market Monitor HOME Commodities Coverage Cotton OUTLOOK Cotton Jeera Castor Castorseed Seed Turmeric Sugar Soybean Soybean RM Seed RM Seed Turmeric OTHER DATA Sowing progress Advance estimates Kharif and rabi MSP Jeera
2 COTTON Expected increase in cotton acreage for due to MSP hike and high price realisation Slow progress of sowing due to rainfall deficit in Saurashtra and likely longer lean season Higher exports expected, particularly to China which has high cotton demand and has imposed tariff on US cotton products Low closing stocks at end of current season Firm domestic demand due to festive season ahead Lower world cotton production expected in Price in Rs/Quintal Kadi 29 mm Rajkot (29 mm) Abohar As per government s sowing report, till 13 July 2018 cotton has been sown in lakh ha, 14.72% lower than lakh ha sown last year till date & 6.53% lower than normal area of lakh ha on date. Cotton sowing is lagging as the main growing region of Saurashtra in Gujarat has received deficient rainfall till now. On 4 July 2018, the MSP of cotton (medium staple) was increased by 28.11% to Rs 5,150 from Rs 4,020 and that of cotton (long staple) 26.11% to Rs 5,450 from 4,320 per quintal. The MSP hike & higher price realisation are expected to incentivize farmers to increase cotton sowing which is expected to pick up in July. In the recent years, it has been witnessed that the MSP announced for Indian cotton acts as a price floor for global cotton as well, given India s status as the largest cotton producer. Thus, higher cotton prices may to an extent support dwindling cotton output in the world. However, cotton MSP hike would make local fibre relatively expensive compared with international prices and inflate cotton products prices. India's cotton exports are expected to jump 43% to 10 million bales in MY on strong overseas demand, especially from China. A sharp increase in import demand from China likely over the next twothree years due to lower production and low buffer stock. China has imposed a 25% tax on US imports of cotton, and shipments from India are consequently expected to see a boost this year and may increase to lakh bales in the next MY from 10 lakh bales this year. With the festive season ahead, demand for yarn in home markets should be stable too. Thus, demand for cotton will stay strong. Cotton is currently trading higher than the new price floor (MSP). The CAI has estimated India s cotton production for at 365 lakh bales against lakh bales last year. The carry-over stock at the end of the crop year is estimated at only 16 la bales against 30 la bales at end of last year, due to high domestic and export demand. NCML estimates cotton production at 375 lakh bales, higher than 365 bales in , due to expectation of higher acreage & yields. As per the July USDA report, the world cotton production is pegged at mn bales (of 480 pounds) against mn bales in The production is estimated at mn bales. USDA has pegged China s cotton production at mn bales against mn bales in and mn bales in Cotton -29 mm -Rajkot COTTON ASSOCIATION OF INDIA INDIA: COTTON BALANCE SHEET, SEASON & Details (in la b/s) (in la b/s) Opening Stock Crop Imports Total Supply Mill Consumption Consumption by SSI Units Non- Mill Consumption Total Domestic Demand Nov-15 Jan-16 Mar-16 Jun-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 May-18 Jul-18 Available Surplus Exports Closing Stock
3 SOYBEAN Higher soybean acreage for Slashing of import duty on Indian soybean by China Incentive on soymeal under MEIS raised from 7% to 10% Increase in import duty on Soy oil Tight domestic supply position with low ending stocks amidst firm demand World soybean production projected to recover in due to favourable conditions in the soybean growing regions Price in Rs/ Quintal Indore Kota Nagpur On 4 July 2018, the government raised the MSP of soybean by 11.44% to Rs 3399 per quintal from Rs 3050 per quintal. Soybean sowing has rapidly picked up over the last fortnight. As per the sowing report, soybean acreage till 13 July 2018 reached lakh ha, 3.57% higher than lakh ha sown last year till same date and 2.40% higher than normal till date. High price realisation against competitive crop and MSP increase supported soybean acreage. India s soybean output is pegged by SOPA at 83.5 lakh tonne, about 24% lower than 109 lakh tonnes in the previous year. NCML estimates the output to rise 20% from last year. The carry forward stock projected to be only one lakh tonne at the end of oil year On 13 July 2018, DGFT raised the incentive on soymeal under Merchandise Export from Indian Scheme (MEIS) from 7% to 10% which would make India s export more competitive in international markets. Indian government had earlier hiked the import duty on crude soy oil from 30% to 35% while on refined soy oil it was hiked to 35% to 45% to curb cheaper imports and give positive price signals to farmers. US soybean futures have fallen nearly 20% since China announced to slap a 25% tariff on US soybeans. Further, China slashed the import duty on soybean from India from 3% to zero, amid the US-China trade war which gives an opportunity to India to export even as Chinese demand soybean is being met largely by Brazil. US on the other hand is exporting to Argentina which faced a draught this season and registered major fall in its production. Argentina saw a 32.7% production drop in 2017/18 with production at 37 MMT against 55 MMT in Crush demands are forecast to double soybean imports to 4 MMT in 2017/18. For , Argentina s production is pegged to recover to 57 MMT. Brazil has seen a record soybean harvest in Brazil s production for , and is pegged at MMT, MMT and MMT respectively. As per the July USDA report, 2018/19 global soybean production is projected to recover to MMT, after falling to MMT in 2017/18 from MMT in 2016/17. US harvest is pegged at MMT against MMT last year and MMT in Soybean Indore Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Aug-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Mar-17 May-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Mar-18 Jun-18
4 RM SEED Lower world production estimate Completion of procurement activities in major producing states Lower rapeseed oil imports Lower mustard meal exports Lower production estimate Increase in import duty on crude and refined soft edible oils Price in Rs/ Quintal Jaipur Alwar Sriganga Nagar Clearance to genetically modified (GM) mustard for commercial release appears to delay as the developer of this transgenic variety of oilseed won't be able to do field demonstrations, required for the final nod, before this year's winter crop (rabi) season. According to the latest report of USDA, World production estimate of rapeseed is estimated at million MT for which is 3.09 per cent lower than the production estimate of million MT of The rapeseed crop forecast is significantly lower this month on reductions production forecast for Australia, the European Union, Russia, and Ukraine. According the latest report of Nafed, as on 12th July 2018, mustard seed procurement has reached 8.71 lakh metric tonnes. Of the total quantity procured, around 4.71 lakh tonnes have been procured from Rajasthan, 2.27 lakh tonnes from Haryana, 1.19 lakh tonnes from Madhya Pradesh, 0.52 lakh tonnes have been procured from Gujarat, 0.01 lakh tonnes in Uttar Pradesh and lakh tonnes in West Bengal. India s rapeseed oil imports in the month of May 2018 is thousand MT which is percent lower than the import of April 2018 of thousand MT. Total imports of rapeseed oil from November 2017 to May 2018 were lakh MT which is slightly higher than last year imports of lakh MT in the same time period. Despite increase in import duty on rapeseed oil, imports have increased due to higher domestic prices. India s mustard meal exports in the month of June 2018 were thousand MT (provisional), lower by per cent against thousand MT in May Average FoB price of meal in June is recorded at $227 per tonne which is lower than average price of $223 per tonne in the month of May. According to latest update from SEA of India, the total production of mustard seed in the current year is estimated at 6.33 million metric tonnes which is 3.72 per cent lower than the last year production estimate of million MT. The government has increased the import duty on crude and refined soft edible oils. Duty on crude soft edible oils has been hiked to 35 per cent and on soft oils to 45 per cent. The latest duty hike is aimed at curbing cheaper imports and to provide better prices for the domestic farmers. Rapeseed & Mustard-Black - 42% oil content : Jaipur 5,250 5,000 4,750 4,500 4,250 4,000 3,750 3,500 Jun-15 Aug-15 Nov-15 Feb-16 May-16 Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17 May-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Jan-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
5 JEERA Good export demand from China Taiwan and Bangladesh Higher exports Crop damage in Syria and Turkey Good monsoon Higher production estimate Price in Rs/ Quintal Unjha Rajkot Jodhpur According to traders, there are reports of good export demand from China, Taiwan and Bangladesh. In May, the export of jeera (from Mundra and Pipavav Port) was approximately (21,962 tonnes from Mundra and 3,839 tonnes from Pipavav) 25,801 tonnes, indicating that the demand in export is on the rise. Cumin seed exports increased by 25 per cent during and stood at 153, tonnes as against 122, tonnes in In , the export volumes of jeera are expected to be higher than exports due to the fact that the prices have been on lower side this year as of record production. Moreover, crop damaged reported in Syria and Turkey due to heavy rainfall in June have shifted the export demand towards India. Quality and price wise Indian Jeera is more competitive than other producing country. Export Demand of jeera is expected to rise as rupee is getting weaker as compare to dollar and firmness in crude oil price. Demand from retailers and stockiest is higher than normal. However, good monsoon reports may cap the upside movement of the spot prices. According to the agmark, all India jeera arrivals in the second week of July is reported at 1.62 thousand MT which is per cent lower than the first week of July arrivals of 3.13 thousand MT. Fall in supplies from growing regions have pushed the spot prices upward. Moreover, farmers are still holding their stock in expectation of getting higher prices in the coming days. Record prices in triggered an increase in jeera sowing in the top producing states of Gujarat and Rajasthan, leading to a bumper crop of around 6 lakh tonne, against a normal 4-5 lakh tonnes. Cumin Seed (Jeera) - Unjha Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jun-17 Aug-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 Apr-18 Jul-18
6 CASTOR Good rainfall over Gujarat and Rajasthan castor growing belts Strong buying by Stockists and traders Lower acreage during current season Higher castor production estimates for key producing states Gujarat Lower castor meal exports Improved demand at lower price levels Price in Rs/ Quintal Deesa Mehsana Jodhpur Strong demand in spot markets from traders and stockiest continue to keep Castor trade firm. The advancement of monsoon rainfall over key castor seed growing belts has checked the uptrend in the commodity. As per market sources, increased demand from soap, paint and other consuming industries against pause in supplies from growing belts may keep Castor prices firm in coming weeks. According to the Ministry of Agriculture report dated, 13 th July 2018, the All India acreage of Castor seed was 0.43 lakh hectares as against 0.57 lakh hectares. The lower acreage has slightly bullish impact on the prices. As per the Department of Agriculture, Castor acreage as on 09 th July 2018 stood at 1,099 hectares. The three years season normal average acreage of Castor in the state is around 6,48,533 hectares. As per the 3 rd advance estimates released by the Department of Agriculture Gujarat Castor seed production in Gujarat for estimated at lakh tonnes as against lakh tonnes in According to 3 rd advance estimates by Department of Agriculture Rajasthan, Castor seed production in estimated at 1.54 lakh tonnes as compared to 1.90 lakh tonnes last year. As per the Ministry of Agriculture 3 rd Advance Estimates for , Castor seed production in India is lakh tonnes as compared to lakh tonnes in The all India Castor seed production target for is lakh tonnes. India castor meal export declined by 15 per cent to 1.04 lakh tonnes during April-May 2018 as compared to 1.23 lakh tonnes same period a year ago. The country has shipped 6.39 lakh tonnes of castor oil in FY Similarly, castor meal export performance was also subdued with April- May shipment totalled at 19,731 tonnes, down from 30,566 tonnes last year. Castor meal export during FY was stood at 5.73 lakh tonnes, sharply down from 4.11 lakh tonnes a year ago. Castor seed stocks at NCDEX approved warehouses as on 15 th July declined by 14 per cent at 43,046 metric tonnes as compared to 50,131 metric tonnes Castor - Deesa Mar-15 May-15 Aug-15 Oct-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 May-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 May-17 Jul-17 Oct-17 Dec-17 Feb-18 May-18 Jul-18
7 TURMERIC Subdued domestic and export demand Lower supplies in spot markets Tight stock position Higher production estimates IMD forecasting overall normal rainfall in the country Expectation of higher acreage during current season Lower exports during Price in Rs/ Quintal Nizamabad Erode Salem Turmeric prices in spot as well as futures have remained steady tracking subdued domestic and export demand. In Maharashtra, turmeric new crop almost finished in Sangli mandi. However, from Basmat and Hingoli region (late sowing zone) around per cent of new crop has been traded. According to market sources around 30 to 32 lakh bags of turmeric stock seen. The new turmeric crops will take at least 9 to 10 months to come into the market. For the said nine months, there will not be enough stock in the market, which is likely to result in firmness in prices in the coming months. In Andhra Pradesh, Turmeric sowing as on 11th July 2018 reported 6,574 hectares as compared to 4,930 hectares in the corresponding period last year, 37 per cent sowing completed from season normal. In Telangana Turmeric sowing as on 27th June 2018 reported 10,858 hectares as compared to 9,641 hectares in the corresponding period last year. Around 14 per cent sowing completed from season normal. Till now, Nizamabad region reported 1,986 hectares compared to last year 901 hectares and Warangal (rural) reported 2,634 hectares compared to last year 1,816 hectares. As per market sources, in normal monsoon rainfall condition Turmeric all India area may go up by per cent as compared to last year due to higher prices. This year, sowing of turmeric is expected to increase in Marathwada, Vidarbha and many parts of Khandesh (Jalgaon, Dhule/Dhulia, Malegaon, Aurangabad, Akola, Buldhana) due to which, the crop in Maharashtra is expected to be about one and a half times as compared to last year. Likewise in Tamil Nadu due to the shortage of rainfall in the last few years there was a decline in turmeric crop, but this time according to the Meteorological Department, good rainfall is expected in the state, that has raised hopes of higher production. As per the Ministry of Agriculture, the All India Turmeric production in is estimated at lakh tonnes as against lakh tonnes estimated in As per the Department of Commerce monthly trade data Turmeric exports from India in April 2018 declined by 24 per cent at 10, metric tonnes against 13, metric tonnes in April Turmeric : Unpolished fingers : Nizamabad Jun-14 Oct-14 Feb-15 Jun-15 Oct-15 Feb-16 Jul-16 Nov-16 Mar-17 Jul-17 Nov-17 Mar-18 Jul-18
8 THE WEEK THAT WAS PRICE TRACKER Sugar output seen at a new high of 355 lakh tonnes in Overall rainfall deficit narrows to 4%, but UP, Bihar, Jharkhand still face dry conditions Duty hike, weak rupee bring down vegoil imports by 23% in June Kharif sowing gathers pace, but still down 10% over last year Soyabean planting nears completion; acreage seen up Rise in cotton MSP, rain may arrest fall in acreage The world is dealing with a massive sugar glut India's rice exports set to ease as govt raises buying price Hike in MSP unlikely to benefit many growers An alternative agenda for farm support To purchase the India Commodity Year Book 2018, contact us at research@ncml.com Link for commodity-wise and market-wise prices and arrivals: als/commoditywisedailyreport2.aspx Official Production Estimates Third advance estimates & previous years estimates : Third Advance Estimates Commodity Latest Fortnight ago Month ago Year ago 16-Jul Jul Jun Jul-17 Soybean RM seed Turmeric Cotton Jeera Castor MINIMUM SUPPORT PRICE (Rs/Qtl.) Commodity KHARIF **NEW** Paddy Common paddy grade A Jowar Hybrid Jowar Maldandi Bajra Ragi Maize Tur/Arhar Moong Urad Groundnut Sunflower seed Soyabean black Sesamum Nigerseed Cotton (Medium Staple) Cotton (Long Staple) RABI Commodity Wheat Barley Gram 4000* 4400 Masur (Lentil) 3950* 4250 Rapeseed/Mustard 3700* 4000 Safflower 3700* 4100 Wheat *includes bonus of Rs 200 per quintal # includes bonus of Rs 100 per quintal
9
10 Disclaimer: This consultancy report has been prepared by National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) for the sole benefit of the addressee. Neither the report nor any part of the report shall be provided to third parties without the written consent of NCML. Any third party in possession of the report may not rely on its conclusions without the written consent of NCML. NCML has exercised reasonable care and skill in preparation of this consultancy report but has not independently verified information provided by others. No other warranty, express or implied, is made in relation to this report. Therefore, NCML assumes no liability for any loss resulting from errors, omissions or misrepresentations made by others. Any recommendations, opinions and findings stated in this report are based on circumstances and facts as they existed at the time of preparation of this report. Any change in circumstances and facts on which this report is based may adversely affect any recommendations, opinions or findings contained in this report. National Collateral Management Services Limited (NCML) 2017
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