ECONOMIC BULLETIN Q1 2017

Transcription

1 July 2017 ECONOMIC BULLETIN Q Lower production, continued sales and employment growth, and continued export growth Food and drink industry Decrease in production and stable sales growth In Q1 2017, EU food and drink industry production decreased by 0.3%. EU food and drink industry turnover increased by 1.0% compared to the previous quarter. The year-on-year comparison shows that food and drink industry turnover growth was lower than total manufacturing turnover (4.3% vs. 6.7% compared to Q1 2016). Total manufacturing production growth also exceeded food and drink industry production (1.9% vs. 0.9% compared to Q1 2016). Food manufacturing prices increased by 1.0% in Q1 2017, and were 2.5% higher compared to Q Employment: upward trending Click here for more information Employment in the EU food and drink industry increased by 0.8% in Q with continued growth registered since Q In the long term, employment in the food and drink industry continues to outperform the average employment level growth in the manufacturing industry (Q1 2017/Q1 2012: +4.5% (food and drink industry) vs. 2.3% (manufacturing)). Click here for more information External trade: EU exports reach 26 billion EU exports of food and drink products totalled 26 billion in Q (Q1 2017/Q1 2016: +11.8%). The trade surplus reached 7.5 billion in Q The top 5 products with the largest share in export value generated 12.6 billion in Q (meat products, dairy products, wine, spirits, processed fruits and vegetables). EU imports of food and drink products reached 18.5 billion (Q1 2017/Q1 2016: 5.5%). Click here for more information Agricultural commodities Increase in FAO food price index After falling for the fifth consecutive year in 2016, the FAO food price index increased by 1% in Q compared to the previous quarter and was 16% higher compared to Q In Q1 2017, EU and world markets prices of maize/corn, soft wheat, WMP and sugar increased compared to the previous quarter as did prices for most vegetable oils and oil crops. At the same time, prices for soybean oil, cocoa and coffee decreased. The year-on-year comparison shows significant growth in prices for most commodities, while global price levels were lower for soft wheat, soybean meal and cocoa. Retail Click here for more information Retail trade: pick-up in activity in early 2017 Retail trade in foodstuffs decreased slightly in November and December 2016 and picked up again in Q Year-on-year, retail trade growth in foodstuffs increased by 1.0% whereas total retail trade was 2.6% higher compared to March Consumer prices were 1.9% higher compared to Q Click here for more information Avenue des Nerviens, Brussels - BELGIUM - Tel info@fooddrinkeurope.eu - Copyright FoodDrinkEurope aisbl; photocopying or electronic copying is illegal.

2 Methodology Except for imports and exports data which represent the evolution of the current quarter compared to the same quarter of the previous year, all other evolutions are represented with respect to the previous quarter (or month) of the same year. EU refers to EU28 in the text, unless otherwise specified. The EU food and drink industry is identified by NACE Rev.2 codes C10 (manufacture of food products) and C11 (manufacture of beverages). Sources Eurostat data and indices (production, turnover, retail trade, employment) Eurostat statistics explained Eurostat Easy Comext Trade Data (based on division 10 & 11 of the NACE Rev.2 classification) FAO Food Price Index European Commission, DG AGRI, Commodity price dashboard Eurostat News Release 89/2017, Volume of retail trade up by 0.1% in euro area - Up by 0.5% in EU28, 6 June About the quarterly economic bulletin FoodDrinkEurope s Economic Bulletin is published on a quarterly basis. It covers a set of key indicators which highlight the major economic trends in the European food and drink industry: production, turnover, employment, external trade, key raw material prices, and retail trade. For more information on FoodDrinkEurope and its activities, please visit:

3 ECONOMIC BULLETIN Q Annex Production and turnover of the EU food and drink industry Production index 2016 Q Q Q Q Q1 y-o-y Total manufacturing % change Food and drink industry % change The industrial production index (also called industrial output index or industrial volume index) measures the changes in the price adjusted-output of industry. Turnover index 2016 Q Q Q Q Q1 y-o-y Total manufacturing % change Food and drink industry % change The index of industrial turnover measures the development of turnover (sales) in the European industry (it is influenced by changes in prices of the traded industrial goods and by changes of the traded volumes of goods).

4 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 2 of 10 EU quarterly manufacturing production and turnover, (2010=100) Total manufacturing production Total manufacturing turnover Food and drink industry production Food and drink industry turnover Food and drink production by Member State Member State 2016 Q4 / 2016 Q Q1 / 2016 Q Q1 / 2016 Q1 EU Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Spain Sweden No data available for Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom

5 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 3 of 10 Food and drink turnover by Member State Member State 2016 Q4 / 2016 Q Q1 / 2016 Q Q1 / 2016 Q1 EU Austria Belgium Bulgaria Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Spain Sweden No data available for Croatia, Cyprus, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia, United Kingdom

6 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 4 of 10 Employment in the EU food and drink industry Employment index Employment 2016 Q Q Q Q Q1 y-o-y Total manufacturing * % change Food and drink industry * % change *Eurostat estimate (phased out) The labour input measures the number of persons employed in the total manufacturing industry vs. the food and drink industry in the EU, seasonally adjusted. Employment in the EU food and drink industry compared to total manufacturing, (2010=100) Manufacturing Food and drink industry

7 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 5 of 10 Food and drink industry employment by Member State Member State 2016 Q4 / 2016 Q Q1 / 2016 Q4. No data available for Cyprus, Greece (discontinued), Hungary, Italy, Luxembourg, Malta, Slovakia, Slovenia 2017 Q1 / 2016 Q1 EU Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Ireland Latvia Lithuania Netherlands 0.6 na na Poland Portugal Romania Spain Sweden 1.1 na na United Kingdom

8 2017 Q1 Q1 / / 2016 Q1 Q1 % change Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 6 of 10 External trade EU food and drink trade ( billion) 2016 Q Q Q Q Q Q1 / 2016 Q1 % change Exports Imports Balance EU food and drink export, ( billion) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Export performance by sub-sector in Q million ,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500 4,000 Meat products 19.7% Dairy products 14.9% Wine 16.0% Spirits 5.5% Processed fruits and vegetables Oils and fats Chocolate and confectionery 10.3% 12.8% 7.6% Bakery and farinaceus products Grain mill and starch products Prepared animal feed 7.6% 14.1% 16.1%

9 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 7 of 10 Trade by sub-sector in value and volume in Q VALUE_IN_MLN_EUROS QUANTITY_IN_1000 tonnes FLOW IMPORT IMPORT % change EXPORT EXPORT % change Trade Balance IMPORT IMPORT % change EXPORT EXPORT % change PRODUCT/PERIOD Q Q Q Q Q Q trend Q Q Q Q Food and drink 17,493 18, ,258 26, ,765 7,546 31% 17,226 16, ,663 13, Food 16,206 17, ,938 19, , % 15,865 15, ,359 10, Drink 1,287 1, ,320 6, ,033 5,549 10% 1,360 1, ,305 3, Meat products 1,766 1, ,798 3, ,032 1,651 60% ,853 1, Dairy products ,473 2, ,297 2,681 17% ,106 1, Wine ,189 2, ,586 1,943 23% Spirits ,188 2, ,853 1,961 6% Processed fruits and vegetables 2,228 2, ,464 1, % 1,927 1, ,235 1, Oils and fats 3,847 4, ,352 1, ,496-2,713 9% 9,137 8, ,046 1, Chocolate and confectionery ,397 1, % Bakery and farinaceous products , % Grain mill and starch products % ,008 1, Prepared animal feed % Fish and seafood products 4,404 4, ,600-3,722 3% 1,212 1, Beer % Mineral waters and soft drinks % Processed tea and coffee % Cider % Sources: Eurostat Easy Comext; own calculations

10 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 8 of 10 Prices of agricultural commodities FAO Food Price Index Source: FAO Food Price Index Main agricultural commodity prices Agricultural commodity CEREALS Q average EU Q1 2017/ Q Q1 2017/ Q Q average WORLD Q1 2017/ Q Q1 2017/ Q EUR/T % change % change EUR/T % change % change Corn Soft Wheat DAIRY SMP 1, , WMP 2, , SUGAR White Sugar USD/T % % OILS AND OIL CROPS Soybean oil Soybean Soybean meal Rapeseed Palm oil COFFEE & COCOA Cocoa 2, Coffee 3, Sources: World prices: FAO (cereals), CIAL (dairy), USDA (sugar); EU prices: DG AGRI; own calculations

11 2010M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M M03 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 9 of 10 Retail trade Volume of retail trade Nov-16 Dec-16 Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 y-o-y Total retail Food, drinks and tobacco The index of the volume of retail trade measures the monthly changes of the deflated turnover of retail trade. EU monthly retail trade volume by product group, (2010=100) Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Retail sale of food, beverages and tobacco Sources: Eurostat; Eurostat News Release 89/2017

12 2010Q1 2010Q2 2010Q3 2010Q4 2011Q1 2011Q2 2011Q3 2011Q4 2012Q1 2012Q2 2012Q3 2012Q4 2013Q1 2013Q2 2013Q3 2013Q4 2014Q1 2014Q2 2014Q3 2014Q4 2015Q1 2015Q2 2015Q3 2015Q4 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 INDEX 2010=100 Annex to Economic Bulletin Q Page 10 of 10 Price developments along the EU food chain Price developments 2016Q1 2016Q2 2016Q3 2016Q4 2017Q1 y-o-y Agricultural prices* Food manufacturing prices Food consumer prices Inflation Source: FoodDrinkEurope, based on DG Agriculture and Rural Development and Eurostat Agricultural prices* Food manufacturing prices Food consumer prices Inflation Source: FoodDrinkEurope, based on DG Agriculture and Rural Development and Eurostat * Eurostat monthly indices for EU agricultural prices are not available since Until December 2016, the index is estimated based on Member States data weighted by their share in the agricultural output. Beyond, the index is estimated based on cereal, sugar, milk and meat monthly prices weighted by annual production.