Introduction PIGS 208

Transcription

1 Pigs

2 Introduction Markets and prices Finished pig prices have rebounded strongly in the last year from a low of 113p/kg dwt in spring 2016 rising 37% to 155p/kg dwt by June EU and global market factors have been the main drivers of higher pig-meat prices. Falling EU sow numbers and a sharp rise in exports to China have finally helped plug the surplus left by Russia s export ban on EU pork. On top of this the weakness of sterling has further boosted UK values. Feed and other costs have tended to increase but not nearly as much as pig-meat prices leading to a sharp recovery in pig production margins. According to AHDB in early 2016 the average UK pig finisher was losing - 10 per head before most producers moved into profit in late In the first quarter of 2017 finished producer margins were estimated at around + 12 per head. The chart below illustrates these movements. For the second year in a row, the June 2016 census figures show that the UK female breeding herd increased (1.7%) on the year to 415,000 head. This remains well down on historic levels with UK sow numbers at 800,000 head in The Scottish breeding sow population also increased with total sow numbers up 1% at 37,798 head in Sow productivity continues to improve with AHDB Pork reporting that the average number of pigs weaned per sow in the UK in 2016 was 26.2, compared with 25.8 in the preceding 12 months, an increase of 0.4 piglets per sow. While remaining above the EU average (22.9), piglets per sow in the UK remains behind top producers; Denmark, Ireland and Belgium. The UK is far from self sufficient in pig meat with domestic production standing at approximately 55% of total UK consumption. Currently the UK imports a significant volume of product from a range of countries in order to fulfil the shortfall in domestic production. Most of these suppliers PIGS 208

3 are from within the European Union with the biggest suppliers being Denmark, Germany and the Netherlands. With UK product being seen by some markets as a premium product and the need to ensure maximum value from the carcase the UK also exports a relatively large volume of lower value product. Marketing and processing The UK pig industry is much more rationalised than other livestock sectors, such as beef and sheep, with the bulk of output coming from 1,600 large producers according to AHDB. More than 80% of these breeding sows are in England with only 7% situated in Scotland. The supply for pigs is also more vertically integrated than the beef and sheep sectors with contracts much more common. In Scotland, expansion of capacity at the remaining slaughterhouses, notably Brechin, has not so far led to any recovery in local fattening and slaughtering. In 2016 the Scottish clean pig kill in Scotland was down marginally (1,000 head) at 300,000 head, the fourth year of almost static output. Given the rise in the Scottish sow herd and higher numbers of pigs weaned per sow this means that large numbers of weaners are still heading to England for finishing and slaughter. In order to grow demand for Scottish grown pork, in 2016 QMS launched the Selected Pork Marketing Strategy Group and ran a campaign to promote the benefits of assured pork from selected farms in Scotland. Specially selected pork is approved by the Scottish SPCA who independently inspect farms and processors. In the UK the Co-op has announced they will only source 100% British meat including pork, bacon and ham. While welcomed by British farmers, the Co-op is a relatively small retailer and with the UK only around 55% self sufficient in pig meat at present there is not the scope to meet this demand. If this trend continues however, it may encourage a gradual rise in domestic production. Margins The biggest cost in pig production is feed which accounts for approximately 50-60% of costs. As such the profitability of pig production generally hinges on three factors; the price received for pigs, the feed price and the efficiency of feed conversion. With pig prices currently rising faster than feed prices, pig margins are currently positive. Part of this is due to the fall out from Brexit and the weaker pound. The more enduring route to profitability for pig producers is to raise the number of pigs reared per sow. This requires continued investment in genetics, staff training, technology and housing for improved performance to be sustained. 209 PIGS

4 Breeding Pigs - Indoor Units PHYSICAL DATA* 4 week weaning Average Premium Litters/sow/year (no) Live pigs born/litter (no) Piglet mortality (%) Weaners/litter (no) Pigs weaned/sow/annum** Pigs sold/sow/annum Age at weaning (days) 26.7 Age at sale/transfer (days) 91 Liveweight at weaning (kg) 7.30 Liveweight at sale (kg) 37.0 Sow:boar ratio 19 No. sows replaced annually (%) 53.6 No. boars replaced annually (%) 40 Sow mortality (%) 5.99 Feed use (conventional diets): sow meal (sow, boar, gilt) (kg) 1,265 Daily liveweight gain (g/day) Feed conversion ratio (:1) 1.70 Feed (kg of feed/sow/annum): Creep feed (14 days of age to 9 kg lwt) Weaner diet (9 to 15 kg lwt) Rearing diet (15 to 34 kg lwt) 891 1,003 Total feed/sow/annum 2,537 2,697 * Based on data derived from AHDB Pork. ** Per sow and gilt in the herd, rounded and with an allowance for barreners. PIGS 210

5 Breeding Pigs - Indoor Units GROSS MARGIN DATA /sow/annum 4 week weaning Average Premium OUTPUT Weaners 38* 971 1,056 Less : sow and boar replacement (net) ,008 VARIABLE COSTS Feed: sow 230/t creep 675/t weaner 270/t rearing 255/t Vet & medicines Other livestock expenses Total Variable Costs GROSS MARGIN Gross Margin/weaner sold Sensitivity-Change ± Change in Gross Margin/sow/annum ( ) 1/weaner sold weaner pig for sale /t in feed prices Replacement cost prices: Cull sow ( p/kg dwt) 144 Replacement gilt 200 Cull boar ( p/kg dwt) 144 Replacement boar 800 * Weaners sold includes a 3% post weaning mortality. Basis of data: 1. Feed cost is purchased feed, an estimate derived from quoted list prices. 2. Vet and medicine costs and other livestock expenses are SAC Consulting estimates. 211 PIGS

6 Breeding Pigs - Outdoor Units PHYSICAL DATA Average Premium* Breeding herd Stocking rate (sows/ha) Litters/sow/year (no.) Live pigs born/litter (no.) Piglet mortality (%) Weaners/litter (no.) Pigs weaned/sow/annum Weight at weaning (kg) Age at weaning (days) Proportion sows replaced annually (%) Proportion boars replaced annually (%) Sow mortality (%) Sow:boar ratio (:1) Sow feed used (kg/annum) 1,575 1,620 Weaners Post weaning mortality (%) Weaners sold/sow Age at sale/transfer (days) Weight at sale (kg) Weight gain (kg) Daily liveweight gain (g/day) Feed conversion ratio (:1) Weaner feed (kg/weaner) * Selected on pigs reared/sow/year. PIGS 212

7 Breeding Pigs - Outdoor Units GROSS MARGIN DATA /sow/annum Average Premium OUTPUT Weaned Less: sow and boar replacement (net) VARIABLE COSTS Feed: sow 235/t weaner 270/t Vet & medicines Transport Other livestock expenses Total Variable Costs GROSS MARGIN GROSS MARGIN/weaner sold GROSS MARGIN /ha (acre) 342 (138) 2,028 (821) Sensitivity-Change ± Change in Gross Margin/sow/annum ( ) 1/weaner sold weaner pig for sale /t in feed prices 3 4 Replacement cost prices: Cull sow ( p/kg dwt) 144 Replacement gilt 200 Cull boar ( p/kg dwt) 144 Replacement boar 800 Note: Sow costs are higher than indoor units due to the requirement for cob nuts for management purposes. 213 PIGS

8 Finishing Pigs PHYSICAL DATA Type of finisher All Finishers Average Premium Liveweight: at purchase/transfer (kg) at slaughter (kg) Deadweight: at slaughter (kg) Killing out (%) Mortality (%) Liveweight gain (g/day) Feed conversion ratio (:1) Feed use (kg) Days in herd Sale price (p/kg dwt) Feed price ( /t) PIGS 214

9 Finishing Pigs GROSS MARGIN DATA OUTPUT Sales Less: weaner (plus allowance for mortality) VARIABLE COSTS Feed Vet & medicines Other livestock expenses Total Variable Costs GROSS MARGIN Sensitivity-Change ± 1 p/kg dwt in sale price /t in feed prices Basis of data: All Average /hd Finishers Premium Other livestock expenses include deductions for power, water, bedding, haulage, commission and levies. 215 PIGS

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