Development Agromet Services in India

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2 Development Agromet Services in India Background Linkages Agro Met Forecasting Agro Met Advisories Advisory Dissemination Capacity Building New Initiatives Future Plans

3 Monsoon regions of the world

4 Interannual variation of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall Monsoon Rainfall Departure (%) Actual Monsoon Rainfall (mm) Normal Monsoon Rainfall : 892 mm

5 Co-efficient of variation of southwest monsoon rainfall

6 Sub-divisional seasonal rainfall (mm) over India

7

8 AREA VULNERABLE TO FLOODS

9 Monsoon seasonal (June September) rainfall Spatial distribution of seasonal monsoon rainfall during 2008 was largely uniform 30 meteorological subdivisions recorded normal rainfall. 2 (Punjab and Orissa) recorded excess rainfall 4 (Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, West Madhya Pradesh, Vidarbha and Kerala) subdivisions recorded deficient rainfall

10 -3% Monthly rainfall 1. Excess rainfall in June over northwest India was due to interaction of mid latitude westerly systems with monsoon circulation. 2. Excess rainfall over Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa and Jharkhand was due to monsoon depression ( June). 3. Rainfall in July was excess along foothills of the Himalayas leading to flood over Bihar and northeastern states due to break monsoon condition during second fortnight. 4. Deficient rainfall over peninsular India during June and July was compensated by excess rainfall during August.

11 Rice Wheat Coarse grains Total cereals Pulses Food grains Production (m. tons) in 2006 Demand of food(m. tons) in 2010 Demand of food(m. tons) in 2020

12 Current Issues in Agriculture STABILISATION OF FOOD PRODUCTION vulnerability of production due to climate variability DIVERSIFICATION Multi crops, cropping pattern - to increase resilience within the system NATURAL RESOURCE MANAGEMENT Water, Nutrients, Genetic base, etc

13 Plateau in Agriculture Productivity Fluctuating Rabi Productivity (Temperature) Contribution of Agricultural Growth in GDP (Significantly low) FAO Assessment on Agricultural Productivity in India (Decrease) IPCC assessment on Ag. Productivity in India 2020 (2.5 to 10% - Decrease) 2050 (5 to 30% - Decrease)

14 Weather and Agri Production in India To keep pace with the increasing population, the growth in agriculture should not only be maintained but should also be sustainable in the long run. Additional land is not available for tilling. Indiscriminate increase in other inputs such as fertilizers, pesticides, water, etc has its own detrimental effects. Major resource, not hitherto been tapped to its fullest extent is Weather and Climate.

15 Weather and Agri Production in India In increasing agricultural production, meteorology has a vital role to play. Farming community should be advised suitably so that the beneficial effects of favourable weather conditions are taken full advantage of and the adverse effects of unfavourable weather are minimized. Agromet Advisory Service should be the focus of our new endeavour.

16 There are 127 Agroclimatic Zones in the country Total No. of Agromet Field Units: 130

17 TIER 1 Apex Policy Planning Body TIER 2 National Agro Met Service HQ (Execution) TIER 3 State Agro Met Centres~28 coordination/monitoring TIER 4 AMFUs Agro Climatic Zone Level ~ 130 TIER 5 District Level Extension & Training Input management as advisory ~612

18 PREPARATION OF DISTRICT SPECIFIC AGRO-ADVISORIES FOR CONCERNED AGRO-CLIMATIC District Level Agro-Met Advisory Service System Agro-climate level agro-met data IMD 130 AG.MET. FIELD UNITS DISTRICT AGRICULTURE OFFICES OF STATE GOVERNMENTS Feedback analysis FARMERS (THROUGH MEDIA, EXTENSION SERVICES, PERSONAL CONTACT) PREPARATION OF DISTRICT WISE MEDIUM RANGE WEATHER FORECAST BY STATE MET CENTRE District-wise Agro-met data DISSEMINATION OF DISTRICT LEVEL AGRO-ADVISORIES

19 The present Network of Agrometeorological Advisory Services Units at State Level Total No.: 23

20 District Level 5 d F/c +2d outlook covering entire work F/C Preparation system F/C Dissemination system Value Addition to NWP Products Skill of Location Specific Weather Forecast

21 Generation of Multi-model Forecasts NCMRWF T-254 UK Met NCEP GFS JMA Forecast = w i F i +d d = Value - addition Multimodel Super Ensemble Technique

22 DISTRICT LEVEL FORECAST on IMD Web-Site

23 District Level Forecast

24 5 day Forecast

25 AGROMET ADVISORIES

26 Primarily targeted for national level planners e.g. Crop Weather Watch Group (CWWG), DoAC. It is also communicated to all the related Ministries (State & Central), Organizations, NGOs for their use.

27 District level weather forecast & Advisories started (Monsoon 2008) District level weather forecast is issued after value addition from RMCs / MCs. AMFUs started issuing district agromet advisories. State Level Composite AAS Bulletins are prepared by State Meteorological Centre. National Agromet Advisory Bulletins are prepared by National Agromet Advisory Service Centre, IMD, Pune.

28 Weather condition and salient advisories SATELLITE IMAGE, 4 UTC, 27 th June 2008 Salient Advisories Weather Conditions Yesterday s upper air cyclonic circulation over north Bay of Bengal off north Orissa & West Bengal coasts persists. Under its influence fairly widespread rainfall activity is likely over Orissa and south Chhattisgarh during 48 hours. The axis of the trough at sea level passes through Anupgarh, Pilani, Agra, Kanpur, Siddi, Chaibasa, Balasore and thence southeastwards to eastcentral Bay of Bengal. Interpre ta tion of Numerical Weather Prediction models indicates increase in rainfall activity along the west coast and over northwest India after 24 hours. Farmers in Karnataka, Kerala, South Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, North Chattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Madhya Pradesh, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Gujarat and West Bengal are advised to continue land preparation and sowing of kharif crops by utilising the recent monsoon showers. As rain/thundershowers are likely at many places along with isolated heavy rainfall over Andaman & Nicobar, North Andhra Pradesh, North Chhattisgarh, Assam, Orissa, Arunachal Pradesh, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Meghalaya and Tripura, farmers in these States are advised to undertake land preparation and sowing of kharif crops after current spells of rain. Farmers in West Rajasthan are advised to prepare the field and arrange for inputs for undertaking sowing on the receipt of rain. Advisories for Pests & Diseases on Crops Attack of pests and diseases below injury level was reported from the following States: Foot rot in pepper, gall midge and stem borer in virippu rice, mahali disease in arecanut and bud rot, Eriophyid mite and rhinoceros beetle in coconut, pseudostem weevil, bunchy top disease, sigatoka disease and rhizome weevil in banana in Kerala. Hispa & stem borer and diseases like blast & sheath blight in regular ahu rice in Assam. Red mite and early shoot borer in sugarcane in Andhra Pradesh. Mealy bug in tea and aphids in gladiolus in Himachal Pradesh. Monitor the above pest and diseases and if required undertake plant protection measures.

29 Targeted for State level planners e.g. state CWWG meeting. This is also meant for other users like Fertiliser industry, Pesticide industry, Irrigation Department, Seed Corporation, Transport and other organisations which provide inputs in agriculture.

30

31 This is targeted for the farmers at large. Advisories are weather sensitive. Includes horticultural crops, livestock, agro-forestry etc.

32

33 Establishment of the fifth tier i.e. District Level Dissemination Centres In order to establish the Fifth tier and communicate the agromet advisory at district/block/village level District Agromet Advisory Service meetings have been arranged with the stake holders (District Ag. Offices, Krishi Vigyan Kendras, Kisan Call Centres, NGOs, ATMA) in 28 states.

34 Telecom for Agromet Print Media/AIR/TV Internet Kissan call Centre FUTURE Common Service Centre Weather channel Community Radio/FM Radio Cell Phone SMS

35

36 Agromet Products Some Examples Pesticides application prediction of pests and diseases incidence/chance of epidemic occurrence, when to apply, prepone/postponing application based on sensitive weather elements. Fertilizer application when to apply i.e. pre-poning/ postponing application based on sensitive weather elements. Application of Irrigation when and how much to apply i.e. preponing /post-poning application based on past weather as well as weather forecast. Date of sowing Date of harvest Incidence of cold / heat waves Incidence of frost and fog Incidence of agricultural drought Contingent crop planning Selection of cultivars

37 Schematic Proposed Workflow A A S S T A T I O N S AMFU DAO VKC Rainfall Forecast for next 2 days, No Irrigation Required

38 Integrating GIS in an operational Agro Met advisory system Weather Crop Info RDBMS MODELS Remote sensing WAN GIS Web Point to Point

39 Weather data through GTS Mechanism for preparation of Agromet Products Crop Pest& Disease Information Customised GIS for generation of agromet products Remote Sensing Information on crop condition The working steps in the National Centre cover data collection, quality checks, running models and product generation, while decentralised offices (AMFUs) utilise the products for framing the advisories.

40 Warning dissemination on the Web Apply plant protection measures. Probability of Pink Boll worm attack in Akola and Yavatmal

41 Warning dissemination on the Web Dhule Amravati Nagpur Bhandara Jalgaon Wardha Buldana Akola Nashik Aurangabad Yavatmal Chandrapur Jalna Gadchiroli Thane Parbhani Mumbai Ahmednagar Bid Nanded Raigarh Pune Osmanabad Latur Satara Solapur Ratnagiri Sangli Kolhapur Sindhudurg Kilometers Rain forecast in the next two days for Jalgaon, Jalna and Yavatmal.: No irrigation required. Fertilizer application to be avoided for the next few days.

42 Application Areas Crop protection: pathogens, insects, frosts. Water balance and irrigation. Crop growth and development. Production and yield. Soil erosion. Early warning system.

43 Proposed Virtual Private Network among the different Tiers

44 DISTRICT LEVEL FORECAST on IMD Web-Site

45

46 5 day Forecast

47 INDIA METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT MULTIMODEL ENSEMBLE BASED DISTRICT LEVEL WEATHER FORECAST ISSUED ON: VALID TILL 08:30 IST OF THE NEXT 5 DAYS DISTRICT : RANGAREDDY STATE : ANDHRA PRADESH PARAMETERS DAY-1 02/12 ENSEMBLE FCST DAY-2 03/12 DAY-3 04/12 DAY-4 05/12 DAY-5 06/12 Rainfall (mm) Max Temp Trend (deg C) Min Temp Trend (deg C) Total cloud cover (octa) Max Relative Humidity (%) Min Relative Humidity (%) Wind speed (kmph) Wind direction (deg)

48 District Level Forecast on IMD s Web Site

49 To develop human resource in the field of agricultural meteorology To impart training to support operational agrometeorology To train grass-root level met. observers in recording accurate weather observations ensure to obtain quality data. CSM Training Training on RS and GIS Training on Data Management - ERFS

50 Enhance the quality and usefulness of the AAS utilizing the Remote Sensing (RS) data. RS based techniques already developed in India by DOS for crop acreage, crop condition assessment and yield estimation. NOAA AVHRR data are also useful for assessment of crop condition and drought conditions. Collaborative efforts are on with DOS & DoAC to generate crop and soil information at smaller scales for use in AAS.

51 Calibrate, validate and operationalise crop simulation models appropriate to each crop in different districts. Considering the number of Districts and the number of crops grown in each of them, a few hundred crop growth models would have to be developed, tested and operationalised. This is a highly inter-disciplinary task and experts in modeling, weather prediction, agronomy, plant pathology, entomology and other agricultural disciplines would have be drawn into the mission to make it successful. Final aim is to develop Expert Systems for farm level decision making.

52 New Products Needed FORECAST Soil Temperature, Soil Moisture, Evaporation, Evapotranspiration, Fog, Frost, Degree Days, Aridity etc. ADVISORY Crop & location Specific Advisories Horticultural Crops Livestock Fisheries Wasteland and Forest Fires Post Harvest and Storage

53 India Meteorological Department has envisaged launching a dedicated Weather Channel in India under a Public-Private Partnership mode. The Weather Channel would provide weather services through various communication modes like TV, Radio, SMS and internet portal. IMD would provide all types of weather data satellite, radar, seismological, astronomical, agrometeorologial, radiation, air pollution and hydrological data etc. All types of weather forecast, other periodical reports etc. would also be provided. Numerical Weather Prediction model products, customized products etc. on real time as well as the historical records would also be provided.

54 Widen the outreach of AAS through Exhibitions Documentary films Suitable advertisements Prepare pamphlets Popularization of service Participate in Ag. Extension activities like Krishi Mela etc. Almost all units Organize meets with farmers Provide suitable grant-in-aid for these activities

55 Training Needs of End-users Farm Level Demonstration Training Work-shop Kisan Goshthi (Experience Sharing) Teaching Weather Sensitivity of Crop/ Animal Production Time And Method of Pesticides For Plant Protection Teaching Methods of Crop Protection From Adverse Weather Farmers Training and Awareness Programmes.

56 FUTURE PLANS Crop Yield Forecast Extended Range (Monthly /seasonal) Climate Forecast

57 Use of Agrometeorological Models to Forecast Yields of Major Crops under FASAL

58 OVERALL APPROACH IN 'FASAL' FIELD SURVEY WEATHER MULTIDATE COARSE RESOLUTION CROPPED AREA ECONOMETRIC HIGH RESOLUTION CROP ASSESSMENT ACREAGE YIELD FORECASTS DECISION RULES EARLY MID LATE F O R E C A S T S

59 Issue of national / state / district level multiple crop yield forecast from the beginning to the end of crop season Yield forecast by integration of Remote Sensing, Meteorological and crop data. Yield models to be prepared jointly by IMD, DOS and DAC. Yield forecast will be updated with Meteorological information and Remote sensing data from SAC, in consultation with DAC under FASAL Programme

60 Methodology for Agrimet Models IMD would develop crop yield forecasting models at district, state and national level for the major crops of the country. Crop forecast at planting stage, mid season and pre-harvest yield forecast will be made. Crop models will be prepared by blending of statistical, simulation and other methods. Remote Sensing data will be used to fine tune the agromet models.

61 Schematic flow chart for development of weather based crop yield forecasting model SAC/ NRSA Website of DAC Agrimet Division, IMD, Pune DAC Agromet Field Units

62 To create new genetic resources NEW VARIETIES: DROUGHT/HEAT RESISTANT NEW FARM MANAGEMENT PRACTICES To cover Risk AGRI INSURANCE CHANGE IN LAND USE

63 Thank you

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