Fertiliser Market Update
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1 Fertiliser Market Update WMG Crop Update 7 th March 2013
2 Disclaimer In the event that this presentation contains forecasts or estimates in relation to fertiliser and grain prices (or any other matter) then these forecasts are expressions of CSBP s opinion only, and are based on assumptions that are subject to significant uncertainties and contingencies. Some (if not all) of these contingencies are outside of CSBP s control and actual future events may vary significantly from the forecasts or estimates. To the extent that the presentation contains information from third party sources, that information has not been independently audited or verified by CSBP. CSBP makes no express or implied representation or warranty that any estimate or forecast will be achieved or that any statement as to future matters will prove correct.
3 Fertiliser market forces are global and Australia is a small part Australia is a net importer and the relatively small market position makes domestic participants price takers in a global market. Global consumption Global exports West Asia 3.1% Western and Central Europe 10.0% Africa 3.0% East Asia 40.2% Western and Central Europe 17.9% Africa 8.8% East Asia 12.2% South Asia 19.8% West Asia 17.4% Oceania 1.2% North America 12.7% Latin America and the Caribbean 6.1% Eastern Europe and Central Asia 3.9% Oceania 0.5% South Asia 0.4% North America 11.7% Latin America and the Caribbean 4.6% Eastern Europe and Central Asia 26.5% Global imports Production Western and Central Europe 23.1% Africa 5.8% East Asia 16.0% Western and Central Europe 9.2% West Asia 6.7% Africa 3.8% East Asia 39.3% West Asia 5.4% Eastern Europe and Central Asia 2.5% South Asia 14.6% Oceania 0.5% South Asia 17.2% Oceania 2.4% North America 12.2% Latin America and the Caribbean 15.4% North America 12.5% Latin America and the Caribbean 2.8% Eastern Europe and Central Asia 10.4% 3
4 Fertiliser Supply Sources to Australia UAN POTASH ROCK POTASH UREA, ROCK, SSP, MAP TSP SOA DAP, MAP MAP, AGNP, DAP, DAPNP, SMAP POTASH, TSP UREA UREA
5 Fertiliser lead times SUPER Rock July Oct Feb UAN Feb April July MOP Usage Pricing Dec Sourcing Feb May UREA Jan March June DAP Usage Pricing Sourcing Jan March June DAYS Notice to supplier Notice to Ship Owner Arrival Window at Loadport Ship Inspection and Loading Sailing Time Bad Weather, Delays, etc Manufacture / Curing Inventory Cover
6 Some Perspectives Global Grain stocks are currently high enough to prevent a repeat of 2008 s food riots. (World Bank. Food Price Watch Aug 12) India s fertiliser usage for 2012/13 could possibly be down by 9 million tonnes compared to 2011/12. IFFCO reports a 50% decrease in potash sales and a 30% decrease in phosphate sales. (Reuters 03 September). {Poor Rabi monsoon, a change in domestic fertiliser subsidies and a depreciated Rupee}. Current Indian DAP manufacture cost is USD 620 per mt CFR compared to their DAP import contract price of USD 580 per mt CFR. Corn Stocks in USA will be low but area to be planted to corn in 2013 is likely to be same as in They can t grow any more! Possible impact of residual phosphate and potash levels from USA corn crop. DAP supply/demand is currently in balance, a surplus of Urea supply seems to be building with Potash being managed. What happens on the world stage, impacts Australia. 6
7 Fertiliser price trends US$/tonne Fertiliser price trends Jan 2010 Mar 2010 May 2010 Jul 2010 Sep 2010 Nov 2010 Jan 2011 Mar 2011 May 2011 Jul 2011 Sep 2011 Nov 2011 Jan 2012 Mar 2012 May 2012 Jul 2012 Sep 2012 Nov 2012 Jan 2013 Urea DAP Potash Sulphur
8 Commodity Trend Summary Price 1 mth % change 12 mth % change Wheat price (A$/tonne) 331 $/t (2.0%) 41.7% Barley price (A$/tonne) 295 $/t (4.2%) 27.2% Canola price (A$/tonne) 578 $/t (0.2%) 10.3% Feed Barley price (A$/Tonne) 276 $/t (2.8%) 21.8% Beef price (c/kg) 159 c/kg (7.3%) (17.4%) Lamb price (c/kg) 303 c/kg 12.0% (43.7%) Wool (c/kg clean) 1131 c/kg 2.9% (5.8%)
9 Fertiliser prices relative to Agriculture commodities
10 Increasing global nitrogen (N) production and consumption Improving nitrogen demand is expected to absorb short-term incremental supply potentially followed by oversupply. Nitrogen demand and supply balance Moderate growth in nitrogen volumes The International Fertilizer Association (IFA) forecasts nitrogen fertiliser demand growth at 1.5% p.a to Higher growth rate for urea expected. Urea is the most widely used and traded nitrogen fertiliser due to its ease of transport. Regional supply/demand imbalance Main urea exporters are gas rich countries/regions with small domestic markets. The main exception is China which produces for supply to its domestic market. Ammonium nitrate still widely used in Europe. Million tonnes product 180 Supply Other Demand Fertiliser Demand : Global urea imports 2010: Global urea exports Potential surplus emerging by Large ammonia capacity increases expected in China, Africa and West Asia New urea capacity being developed in large consuming countries (China and India) however new India capacity is uncertain. Shale gas developments in the US may lead to significant new sources of low cost ammonia production. Rest of the world 50% Banglades h 4% Source: IFA, Global Fertilizers and Raw Materials Supply and Supply/Demand Balances , May Yara Fertiliser Industry Handbook February 2012 United States 18% Brazil 7% Mexico 5% India 16% Ukraine 8% Egypt 9% Rest of the world 16% Russia 13% China 20% West Asia 34% 10
11 Increasing global phosphate (P) consumption and production Firm demand leading to balanced market conditions with a moderate surplus emerging. Phosphoric Acid demand and supply balance Moderate growth in phosphate volumes IFA forecasts phosphoric acid demand growth at 2.3% p.a. to DAP share of phosphate fertiliser consumption expected to increase. MAP and DAP are actively traded. The US and China are the largest exporters of MAP and DAP. India and to a lesser extent Brazil dominate the import market. Million tonnes product Supply Demand Potential surplus emerging Increase in DAP supply expected to grow at a higher rate (4.3% p.a.) than demand (2.9% p.a.). Growing phosphoric acid capacity in China, Morocco and Brazil. Low cost sources typically involve relatively high sovereign risk. Rest of the world 41% 2010: Global MAP/DAP imports 2010: Global MAP/DAP exports India 38% Europe, Other Asia, and Oceania 6% Russia 17% Rest of the world 5% United States 29% Australia 3% Pakistan Argentina 3% 4% Brazil 11% Africa 19% China 24% Source: IFA, Global Fertilizers and Raw Materials Supply and Supply/Demand Balances , May 2012., Deutsche Bank, US Fertilizers: Eating Through the Cycle, 5 March
12 Global potash (K) dynamics Potassium surplus forecast over the next five years despite strong volume growth. Potassium demand and supply balance Strong growth in potash volumes IFA forecasts potassium fertiliser demand growth at 3.7% p.a. to 2016, expected to outpace nitrogen and phosphate demand. This is largely attributed to the under application of potash to soil and higher crop yields increasing potassium nutrient removal. m/t product Supply Other Demand Fertiliser Demand Highly concentrated global reserves Potash reserves are highly concentrated globally, with a small number of large mines providing supply. More than 60% of global supply from Canada and the Former Soviet Union; Dead Sea-based producers represent a further 11%). Potash earnings tend to attract a higher multiple than those from phosphate or nitrogen due to this nutrient s highly consolidated industry structure Short-medium term surplus emerging Attributed to significant capacity additions expected from brownfield development projects, despite expected delays in this capacity coming online. Concentration of reserves results in greater price discipline than other nutrients. Rest of the world 35% : Global potash imports 2010: Global potash exports United States 19% Brazil 15% Israel 9% Germany 9% Rest of the world 12% 2016 Canada 36% Indonesia 5% China PR 12% India 14% Belarus 15% Russia 19% Source: IFA, Global Fertilizers and Raw Materials Supply and Supply/Demand Balances , May 2012., Deutsche Bank, US Fertilizers: Eating Through the Cycle, 5 March 2010, Potash Corp 2011 Online Overview 12
13 2012 Trial Results
14 Residual Nitrogen and Phosphorus - Badgingarra Canola in 2011 and Wheat in 2012 In 2011 we looked at how much of a response curve we could get to phosphorus and nitrogen rates In 2012 we wanted to look at how much residual we could get from those rates applied in 2011 Site o Sub-Clover (150kg SuperPotash 3:1) o Red sandy loam
15 Soil Tests Description ph EC OC N(Nit) N(Amm) P PBI K S 0-10 Br orange sandy loam cm Ex Ca Ex Mg Ex K Ex Na Ex Al ECEC Ex Al% Cu Zn Al cm
16 2011
17 P 16P 8P
18 P 0N 0P 40N
19 2012
20 2012 Wheat 2011 Canola 2 Year Trt Yield Returns Cost Profit Trt Yield Returns Cost Profit Profit N P (t/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) N P (t/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) ($/ha) Prob <0.001 Prob Lsd 0.33 Lsd 0.319
21 Questions?
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