Market situation Cereals. AGRI C 5 Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins 30 March 2012

Transcription

1 Market situation Cereals AGRI C 5 Advisory Group on Cereals, Oilseeds and Proteins 30 March 2012

2 World cereal balance : IGC World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report 1841 (1830) (1831) mio t mio t (369) (130) est 2011 fcst

3 World cereal prices since 30 August 2011 ($/t) Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - FR Rouen - $ 281 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - FR Bordeaux - $ 282 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed - $ /09/ /09/ /09/2011 4/10/ /10/ /10/ /10/2011 1/11/2011 8/11/ /11/ /11/ /11/2011 6/12/ /12/ /12/ /12/2011 3/01/ /01/ /01/ /01/ /01/2012 7/02/ /02/ /02/ /02/2012 6/03/ /03/ /03/ /03/ /08/2011 6/09/2011 quotation in $ / tonne

4 World wheat balance sheet: IGC World Ending Stocks of which 8 major exporters World Production World Consumption 685 Source: IGC Feb. report (690) 681 (681) mio t mio t (204) (74) est 2011 fcst 520 4

5 IGC: Wheat production forecast All wheat (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report Mt EU Russia USA Australia Canada Ukraine Kazakhstan Argentina 5

6 Wheat export prices since 1/1/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2012 Wheat - Canada CWRS St Lawrence - $ 366 Wheat - US HRW Gulf - $ 292 Wheat - US SRW Gulf - $ 259 Wheat - Australia ASW Eastern States - $ 248 Wheat - Argentina Trigo Up River - $ 258 Wheat - Black Sea Milling - $ 275 Wheat - Black Sea Feed - $ / / /2007 quotation in or $ / tonne

7 EU wheat export commitments 2011/ /2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY 2011/2012 Million tonnes WHEAT CUMULATED EXP MY 2010/11 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY 12 AVERAGE 5MY 8 4 MY 2011/12 0 7

8 EU wheat import commitments 2011/12 Soft wheat 2011/12 Soft wheat 2010/11 soft wheat average 5MY soft wheat trimmed average 6 WHEAT CUMULATED IMP 4 TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY Million tonnes MY 2011/12 AVERAGE 5MY 2 MY 2010/11 0 8

9 EU wheat exporting MS and destinations mio t Source:Eurostat Main EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats,...) exporters and destination countries 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 8.3 mio t France 66% Germany 13% Romania 7% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Spain 2% Algeria Morocco Saudi Arabia Angola Egypt Sudan Cuba Others 9

10 EU wheat exporting MS and destinations 1.8 Main EU-27 Common Wheat (incl. flour groats,...) exporters and destination countries Average for 6 months of marketing years : 8.3 mio t mio t France 51% Germany 20% Romania 7% Hungary 4% Bulgaria 4% Poland 3% Source:Eurostat Algeria Morocco Egypt Libya Iran South Africa Yemen Others 10

11 EU MS exporting wheat 2011/12 & 5 average MY EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats ) 6 months of marketing year : 8.3 mio t Hungary 2% Spain 2% Latvia 1% Belgium 1% Bulgaria 1% Others 3% Average EU Common Wheat exports by Member State (incl. flour, groats ) 6 months of marketing years : 8.8 mio t Latvia 2% Others 5% Belgium 2% Lithuania 3% Utd. Kingdom 2% Poland 3% Bulgaria 4% Lithuania 3% Hungary 4% Romania 7% Romania 7% France 50% Germany 13% France 65% Germany 20% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 11

12 EU wheat export destinations EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats... ) export destinations 6 months of marketing year : 8.3 mio t EU Common Wheat (incl. flour, groats... ) export destinations 6 months of marketing years : 8.8 mio t Others 23% Algeria 30% Ivory Coast 2% South Africa 2% Syria 2% Algeria 18% Others 34% Morocco 10% Cameroon 2% Libya 2% Senegal 2% Cameroon 2% Norway 2% Source: Eurostat Cuba 3% Sudan 3% Egypt 4% Angola 4% Tunisia 2% Morocco 12% Ivory Coast 2% Senegal 2% Saudi Arabia 7% Pakistan 2% India 2% Source: Eurostat Angola 3% Egypt 9% Libya 4% Iran 4% South Africa 3% Yemen 3% 12

13 EU MS importing wheat EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS 6 months of marketing year : 3 mio t Poland 1% EU Soft Wheat Imports by MS Average from 6 months of marketing years : 2.5 mio t Others 5% Belgium 2% Netherlands 5% Others 2% Romania 2% Portugal 3% Portugal 6% Belgium 5% Greece 6% Spain 43% Greece 8% Spain 40% Utd. Kingdom 7% Utd. Kingdom 12% Source: Eurostat Italy 28% Source: Eurostat Italy 25% 13

14 EU wheat imports origins EU Soft Wheat Import Origins 6 months of marketing year : 3 mio t Others 1% Kazakhstan 2% Serbia 3% USA 9% EU Soft Wheat Import Origins Average from 6 months of marketing years : 2.5 mio t Others 1% Serbia 2% Croatia 3% Kazakhstan 4% Canada 10% Ukraine 40% Russia 15% Ukraine 33% Canada 19% Russia 35% USA 23% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 14

15 World durum wheat balance: IGC Major exporters Stocks Canada World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report (37) mio t (36) 36 mio t (2.3) 1.3 (1.2) est 2011 fcst 30 15

16 World durum wheat prices since 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2012 Durum - US Minneapolis HADW (20/3/2012) Durum - FR Port-La-Nouvelle Durum - IT Bologna Durum - ES Average Wheat - FR Rouen /2007 quotation in or $ / tonne

17 EU durum imports origins EU Durum Wheat Import Origins 6 months of marketing year : 1 mio t EU Durum Wheat Import Origins Average for 6 months of marketing years : 1 mio t Russia 1% Kazakhstan 1% Others 1% Others 6% Turkey 2% 0% Argentina 3% Kazakhstan 3% Mexico 5% Syria 4% Australia 9% Mexico 17% Canada 46% USA 16% Canada 64% USA 22% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 17

18 EU MS exporting durum wheat EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS 6 months of marketing year : 0.8 mio t EU Durum Wheat Exports by MS Average for 6 months of marketing years : 0.5 mio t Austria 0.4% Hungary 0.5% Cyprus 0.4% Slovenia 0.2% Others 0.2% Hungary 1% Cyprus 1% Belgium 1% Others 1% Greece 1.2% Bulgaria 2% Spain 10.0% Greece 10% Spain 16% France 46% Italy 22.5% France 64.5% Italy 22% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 18

19 World barley balance sheet: IGC World Ending Stocks EU ending stocks World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report (136) mio t (134) 130 mio t (26) 10 (9) est 2011 fcst

20 Barley prices since 01/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2012 Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen feed Barley - UK FOB London feed - no quotation Barley - FI Dlvd Naantali feed Barley - Black Sea feed FOB Barley - FR Dlvd Rouen malting / /2007 quotation in or $ / tonne

21 EU barley export commitments 2011/ / /2011 Average 5MY trimmed avg 5MY Million tonnes 5 4 BARLEY CUMULATED EXP TRIMMED AVERAGE 3 MY 2010/11 AVERAGE 5MY 2 MY 2011/

22 EU barley exporting MS Hungary 2% Finland 2% Sweden 2% Bulgaria 3% Netherlands 3% Lithuania 3% EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State 6 months of marketing year : 3.5 mio t Estonia 1% Others 3% France 25% Sweden 2% Lithuania 3% Bulgaria 3% EU Barley and Malt Exports by Member State Average for 6 months of marketing years : 3.5 mio t Finland 2% Czech Republic 1% Hungary 1% Estonia 1% Others 2% France 23% Utd. Kingdom 5% Netherlands 4% Utd. Kingdom 4% Denmark 7% Romania 15% Spain 4% Denmark 4% Germany 20% Belgium 14% Romania 7% Source: Eurostat Germany 15% Source: Eurostat Belgium 19% 22

23 EU barley export destinations EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations 6 months of marketing year : 3.5 mio t EU Barley and Malt Export Destinations Average for 6 months of marketing years : 3.5 mio t Others 25% Saudi Arabia 34% Others 30% Saudi Arabia 33% Nigeria 2% China 2% Source: Eurostat Tunisia 3% Brazil 3% Vietnam 3% Japan 3% Venezuela 3% Morocco 4% Russia 5% Jordan 4% Algeria 9% Syria 2% Algeria 2% Russia 3% Morocco 3% Jordan 4% Source: Eurostat China 4% Japan 4% Tunisia 5% Venezuela 5% Brazil 5% 23

24 mio t World maize balance sheet: IGC World Ending Stocks of which US World Production World Consumption Source: IGC Feb. report (867) 864 (861) 126 (125) mio t (21) est 2011 fcst

25 IGC: maize production forecast Maize (est.) 2011 (fcst.) Source: IGC Feb. report Mio t USA EU Brazil Argentine Ukraine 25

26 04/ Maize export prices since 1/1/ / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / / /2012 Maize - US 3YC Gulf - $ 274 Maize - Argentina Feed Up River - $ 260 Maize - Brazil Feed Paranagua - $ 258 Maize - Black Sea Feed - $ / / /2007 quotation in or $ / tonne

27 EU Maize import commitments 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2011/12 Maize other than seed 2010/ Maize other than seed average 5MY MAIZE CUMULATED IMP Maize other than seed - Trimmed Average 6 MY 2010/11 AVERAGE 5MY Million tonnes TRIMMED AVERAGE 5MY 2 1 MY 2011/

28 EU MS importing maize Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State 6 months of marketing year : 2.5 mio t Cyprus 1% Germany 1% Poland 1% Belgium 1% Slovenia 3% Utd. Kingdom 4% Greece 4% Italy 8% Ireland 1% Romania 1% Others 2% Spain 36% Maize Imports (incl. processed products) by Member State Average for 6 months of marketing years : 3.4 mio t Romania 2% Slovenia 1% Greece 2% Belgium 2% France 3% Germany 4% Utd. Kingdom 6% Italy 6% Bulgaria 1% Cyprus 1% Ireland 1% Poland 1% Others 2% Spain 45% Netherlands 17% Netherlands 9% Portugal 20% Portugal 14% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 28

29 EU maize imports origins Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports 6 months of marketing year : 2.5 mio t Serbia 8% South Africa 1% Others 2% Croatia 2% Brazil 5% Maize (incl. processed products) - Origin of EU Imports Average for 6 months of marketing years : 3.4 mio t Others 2% Croatia 2% USA 2% Paraguay 4% Ukraine 6% Argentina 9% Ukraine 44% Serbia 9% Brazil 55% Russia 10% Argentina 20% USA 19% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 29

30 EU maize importing MS and origins 700 Maize (incl. processed products) Main EU Importers and Country of Origin 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 2.5 mio t t Source:Eurostat Spain 37% Portugal 20% Netherlands 17% Italy 8% Greece 4% Utd. Kingdom 4% Ukraine USA Russia Argentina Serbia Brazil Croatia Others 30

31 EU Commitments 2011/2012 (39 weeks) Imports: 9.5 mio t (10.4 mio t in 2010/11; 6.3 mio t 2 years ago) 4.9 mio t soft wheat 1.1 mio t durum wheat 3.9 mio t maize t barley Exports: 17.6 mio t (21.2 mio t last year; 15.9 mio t 2 years ago) 10.4 mio t soft wheat 2.6 mio t barley in grain 1.0 mio t durum wheat 2.3 mio t maize So far, the EU is a net cereal exporter of 8.1 mio t, against 10.8 mio t last year and 9.6 mio t in 2009/

32 Thank you for your attention! Balance sheet updates & market presentation available: e-sheets/index_en.htm

33 World wheat balance: USDA World Ending Stocks of which 5 major exporters World Production World Consumption Source: USDA Mar. report (693) 684 (680) mio t (213) mio t (54) est 2011 fcst

34 Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (1) USDA World Production USDA World Consumption IGC World Production IGC World Consumption Source: USDA Mar. report Source: IGC Feb. report Mio t est 2011 fcst 34

35 Wheat balance USDA vs. IGC (2) USDA World Stocks IGC World Stocks USDA 8 major exporters IGC 8 major exporters 250 Source: USDA Mar. report 200 Source: IGC Feb. report Mio t est 2011 fcst 35

36 USDA: Wheat production forecast All wheat est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report Mt EU Russia USA Australia Canada Kazakhstan Ukraine Argentina 36

37 World maize balance: USDA 500 World Ending Stocks of which US World Production World Consumption Source: USDA Mar. report 869 (868) (864) 860 mio t mio t (125) (20) est 2011 fcst

38 USDA: maize production forecast Maize est 2011 fcst Source: USDA Mar. report Mio t USA EU Brazil Ukraine Argentine 38

39 EU MS importing durum Belgium 10.9% EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS 6 months of marketing year : 1 mio t Utd. Kingdom 0.4% Poland 0.4% Netherlands 1.5% Germany 5.1% Greece 0.3% Others 0.1% EU Durum Wheat Imports by MS Average for 6 months of marketing years : 1 mio t Netherlands 6% Belgium 11% Poland 1% Portugal 1% Germany 2% Spain 2% Greece 1% Italy 81.3% Italy 76% Source: Eurostat Source: Eurostat 39

40 EU durum export destinations EU Durum Wheat export destinations 6 months of marketing year : 0.8 mio t EU Durum Wheat export destinations Average for 6 months of marketing years : 0.5 mio t Croatia 1% Nigeria 1% Others 8% Others 17% Senegal 1% Mauritania 1% Switzerland 1% Ivory Coast 8% Algeria 46% Nigeria 2% Mauritania 2% Senegal 3% Saudi Arabia 3% Algeria 36% Tunisia 15% Turkey 5% Ivory Coast 7% Source: Eurostat Morocco 18% Source: Eurostat Tunisia 25% 40

41 Barley EU exporting MS and destinations Main EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination 6 months of marketing year 2011/12: 3.5 mio t t Source:Eurostat France 24% Romania 15% Germany 15% Belgium 14% Denmark 7% Utd. Kingdom 5% Saudi Arabia Algeria Russia Jordan Morocco Venezuela Japan Others 41

42 Barley EU exporting MS and destinations Main EU-27 Barley and Malt Exporters and Countries of Destination Average for 6 months of marketing years : 3.5 mio t t Source:Eurostat France 22% Germany 19% Belgium 19% Romania 7% Denmark 4% Spain 4% Saudi Arabia Tunisia Venezuela Brazil Japan China Jordan Others 42

43 US SRW wheat futures 43

44 CME wheat: open interest and net position of traders since 01/ Open Interest Managed money and other rep. - Net positions WHEAT - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE 44 Millions of contracts (136 metric tonnes) Thousands of contracts (of 136 metric tonnes) /01/ /01/2011 1/02/ /02/2011 1/03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/2011 7/06/ /06/2011 5/07/ /07/2011 2/08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/2011 8/11/ /11/2011 6/12/ /12/2011 3/01/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/2012

45 EU Milling Wheat Futures since 11/

46 CME maize futures since 01/

47 CME maize: open interest and positions of traders since 01/ Open Interest Managed money and other rep. - Net positions CORN - CHICAGO BOARD OF TRADE /01/ /01/2011 1/02/ /02/2011 1/03/ /03/ /03/ /04/ /04/ /05/ /05/2011 7/06/ /06/2011 5/07/ /07/2011 2/08/ /08/ /08/ /09/ /09/ /10/ /10/2011 8/11/ /11/2011 6/12/ /12/2011 3/01/ /01/ /01/ /02/ /02/2012 Millions of contracts (127 metric tonnes) Thousands of contracts (of 127 metric tonnes)

48 EU maize futures since 01/