Agricultural Trade and the Implications for the U.S. Farm Sector May 16, 2018 Ames, IA

Transcription

1 Agricultural Trade and the Implications for the U.S. Farm Sector May 16, 2018 Ames, IA David Oppedahl Senior Business Economist Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago

2 Global Trade in Action 8.5% of U.S. Exports in 2015 were Food and Agricultural Products, and 13% of District Exports

3 IMF real GDP growth forecast for 2018

4 The dollar s exchange value has dipped since the start of 2017, boosting exports 120 (Real Broad Trade-Weighted Exchange Value of the US$) {March 1973=100} Source: Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

5 Real U.S. exports rising again, but more slowly than imports 300 (billions of 2015 dollars, SA) Exports Imports Sources: Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau

6 Global Marketplace U.S. trade surplus for agriculture Filling empty containers with soybeans headed for China

7 Value of agricultural exports rose in 2017, but expected to be about the same in 2018 billion $ Exports Imports Surplus FY * *USDA projection Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

8 Agricultural Exports billion dollars Jan. Mar. May July Sep. Nov. Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

9 High-value agricultural exports outpaced more variable bulk exports, but both slowed billion 2016$ High-value Bulk Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

10 Trade agreements won t repeal the variability of bulk exports 3000 million bu Wheat Corn 500 Soybeans (USDA data for end of marketing year)

11 Growth in agricultural exports to NAFTA partners (billion $) Canada Mexico 5 0 CY1990 ' '05 '10 '15

12 But agricultural exports to China caught up (billion $) Canada China Mexico 0 CY1990 ' '05 '10 '15

13 U.S. agricultural exports by top destinations (billion $) Country FY1990 Country CY2017 Japan 8.19 Canada 20.5 European Union 7.44 China 19.6 Canada 3.73 Mexico 18.6 Former USSR 2.99 Japan 11.9 South Korea 2.71 European Union 11.5 Mexico 2.67 Taiwan 1.82 China 0.91 Egypt 0.76 Hong Kong 0.69 Saudi Arabia 0.50 Iraq 0.50 Algeria 0.49 Pakistan 0.39 Philippines 0.35 Source: USDA, Economic Research Service South Korea 6.9 Hong Kong 4.2 Taiwan 3.3 Indonesia 2.9 Philippines 2.6 Vietnam 2.5 Columbia 2.5 Thailand 1.8 Turkey 1.7 India 1.6

14 Iowa s agricultural exports hit a plateau (billion $) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

15 Agricultural exports by regional states (2016 in million $) U.S. Iowa Illinois Indiana Michigan Wisc. Total (rank) 134,242 10,608 (#2) 8,345 (#3) 4,604 (#7) 2,044 (#20) 2,898 (#18) Soybeans 22,819 3,113 (#2) 3,205 (#1) 1,706 (#4) 564 (#13) 532 (#14) Corn 9,890 1,747 (#1) 1,558 (#2) 678 (#5) 229 (#13) 282 (#10) Pork 5,936 1,999 (#1) 382 (#4) 319 (#5) 97 (#12) 31 (#18) Dairy 4, (#12) 43 (#23) 91 (#14) 223 (#7) 683 (#2) Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

16 Export Shares of U.S. Agricultural Production, Plant products Corn 15% Processed vegs 25% Fresh fruit 30% Soybeans 40% Wheat 51% Rice 55% Tree nuts 72% Cotton 77% Animal products Beef 10% Pork 22%

17 7th District Crop Yield Indexes (1964=100) Corn Soybeans Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

18 Real Cash Crop Prices 40 ($/bushel for Central IL, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Corn Soybeans Sources: The Wall Street Journal and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

19 Corn production down from record in 2016/ billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

20 Growth in industrial demand (especially for ethanol production) surpassed feed demand for corn 8 Food, Seed & Industrial billion bushels Residual & Feed Exports /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board

21 Corn prices expected to be higher in 2018/19 as stocks tighten $9 30% 25% Price per bushel $6 $3 14% 11% 17% 10% 15% 19% 20% 18% 16% 12% 9% 20% 18% 13%14% 13% 12% 9% 8% 7% 9% 13%13% 16% 15% 12% 20% 10% Stocks/use ratio 5% $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 0% stks/use ratio price Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board

22 Soybean production expected to be down from records of two previous years billion bushels /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service

23 Soybean exports expected to be up, while crushing projections are flat 2.5 Exports billion bushels Crush /92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board

24 Soybean prices expected to rise as stocks dip in 2018/19 $16 19% 20% Price per bushel $12 $8 $4 16% 14% 14% 13% 13% 11% 11% 9% 9% 8% 8% 7% 6% 5% 4% 7% 7% 5% 5% 5% 5% 13% 9% 7% 5% 5% 15% 10% 5% Stocks/use ratio 3% $0 1991/92 96/97 01/02 06/07 11/12 16/17 stks/use ratio price 0% Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board

25 Primary global soybean flows

26 Seasonal soybean trade with China

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28 Real USDA Livestock Prices 250 ($/hundredweight, adjusted by CPI-U for January 2010) Hogs Cattle Sources: USDA, National Agricultural Statistics Service and U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

29 Pork exports overtook beef exports by weight 6 Pork billion pounds 4 2 Beef Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

30 But pork exports lag beef exports by value 8 billion $ 6 4 Pork Beef Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

31 Dairy exports and milk prices $26 8 Price per cwt. $22 $18 $14 $ Exports Price Billion dollars * 2018 USDA forecast Source: USDA, World Agricultural Outlook Board

32 Midwest agriculture faces choke points with aging waterway infrastructure

33 Growth in Food Demand Projected population growth: 45% increase in low income countries, 7% in high income countries 1.4 billion live on less than $1.25/day (most hungry or under-nourished) 3.1 billion live on less than $2.50/day (calorie problems solved for most) As income increases from $2 to $10 per day, demand rises for meat, dairy, oils, and fruits After $10 per day, demand for processed food greater than demand for raw commodities World food demand may double by 2050 as people escape from poverty

34 Population trends changing world trade

35 Income growth boosts ag trade

36 Midwest agriculture faces choke points with aging waterway infrastructure

37 Urbanization drives food trade as well

38 Increasing consumption of meat and protein as income rises Decreasing consumption of staple foods as income rises

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40 Ratio of % calories by source in low to high income countries

41 Midwest agriculture faces choke points with aging waterway infrastructure

42 Resource Constraints Drive Trade At most 12% more arable land available worldwide for agriculture (without destruction) Inferior quality or degraded land in many areas Agriculture uses 70% of world s fresh water Water is a scarce resource in much of the world, but it s not priced that way To meet world food demand sustainably there will need to be huge increases in food system productivity around the world Larger fraction of food to move via trade due to distribution of arable land

43 Agriculture faces challenges where water is scarce

44 Future of Agricultural Trade? How to attract the next generation of buyers? Consumer-driven agriculture Innovations in technology and marketing Current trends forecast into the future, but for how long? Disruptive forces lurk Climate change and environmental crises Geopolitical risks Trade negotiations

45 Midwest agriculture faces choke points with aging waterway infrastructure

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47 U.S. agricultural trade value forecast to 2027 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

48 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

49 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

50 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

51 Source: USDA, Interagency Agricultural Projections Committee

52 Growth Potential for Ag Exports Exports are key to profitability of Midwest ag Only large potential growth markets are in low income countries Midwestern comparative advantage in producing products desired by people as they move up the income ladder (animal products and feed, edible oils)

53 Real net farm income edged up in 2017, but is expected to be down in 2018 billion 2018$ gov't payments 2018* *USDA forecast Source: USDA, Economic Research Service

54 Annual change in farmland values in 7th Federal Reserve District Percent Source: Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago