Marketing 2018 Feeder Calves

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1 Marketing 2018 Feeder Calves Chris Prevatt Beef Cattle and Forage Economics University of Florida, Range Cattle REC Tariffs A tariff is a tax on imports or exports between sovereign states. Tariffs (from key countries) levied against U.S. Beef will cause a decline in price. Anything is possible. The market is likely to be volatile, both up and down Key Beef Countries Japan South Korea Mexico Canada Hong Kong 2018 Beef Cattle Market Prices 1

2 $ Per Cwt. 150 SLAUGHTER STEER PRICES Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt STEER HIDE AND OFFAL VALUE Live Animal Basis, Weekly C-P-39 MED. & LRG. #1 STEER CALF PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly $ Per Cwt C-P-49A 2

3 $ Per Cwt. 190 MED. & LRG. #1 FEEDER STEER PRICES Pounds, Southern Plains, Weekly C-P-49 $ Per Cwt. 100 SLAUGHTER COW PRICES Southern Plains, 85 90% Lean, Weekly C-P-35 Supply 3

4 Thou. Head 725 CATTLE SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS C-S-08 07/06/18 TOTAL COW SLAUGHTER Beef and Dairy Cow Slaughter above Federally Inspected, Weekly Thou. Head year ago levels & USDA NASS C-S-14 07/06/18 Thou. Head STEER SLAUGHTER Federally Inspected, Weekly Steer and Heifer Slaughter Numbers At or Above & USDA NASS C-S-17 07/06/18 4

5 STEER DRESSED WEIGHT Steer and Heifer Federally Inspected, Weekly Dressed Weights Pounds Above & USDA NASS C-S-18 07/06/18 Mil. Head 12.1 CATTLE ON FEED US Total, Monthly JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEP OCT NOV DEC Avg. 2012/ Data Source: USDA NASS C-N-10 06/22/18 BEEF PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS M-S-18 5

6 PORK PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS M-S TOTAL RED MEAT PRODUCTION Federally Inspected, Weekly & USDA NASS M-S-21 COLD STORAGE 6

7 575 BEEF IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS M-S-09 06/22/ PORK IN COLD STORAGE Frozen and Cured, End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS M-S-10 06/22/ TOTAL RED MEAT IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS M-S-11 06/22/18 7

8 1500 TOTAL POULTRY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS P-S-03 06/22/18 TURKEY IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS P-S-04 06/22/ CHICKEN IN COLD STORAGE End of the Month JAN MAR MAY JUL SEP NOV Data Source: USDA NASS P-S-05 06/22/18 8

9 Demand Index Value 120 RETAIL ALL FRESH BEEF DEMAND INDEX Annual, Using CPI 1990= Data Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics, USDA ERS, Compiled & Analysis by LMIC Bil. Pounds 3.5 US BEEF AND VEAL EXPORTS Carcass Weight, Annual Data Source: USDA ERS & USDA FAS, Compiled and Forecasts by LMIC I-N-06 06/13/18 9

10 1000 MT TOTAL U.S. EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly 4 1/10/15 7/11/15 1/9/16 7/9/16 1/7/17 7/8/17 1/6/18 Data Source: USDA FAS 07/01/ MT 8 US EXPORTS OF BEEF MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /9/16 7/9/16 1/7/17 7/8/17 1/6/18 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. & USDA APHIS 07/01/ MT 12 US EXPORTS OF PORK MUSCLE CUTS Weekly /9/16 7/9/16 1/7/17 7/8/17 1/6/18 Canada Japan Mexico Korean Rep. & USDA APHIS 07/01/18 10

11 BOXED BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Choice Lbs., Carcass, Weekly $ Per Cwt C-P-62 $ Per Cwt BOXED COW-BEEF CUTOUT VALUE Cutter Cow, Weekly Cents Per Pound 1100 WHOLESALE BEEF RIBEYE PRICES Boneless, Light, Weekly M-P-21 06/25/18 11

12 Cost of Gain in Feedlots $ Per Bu OMAHA CORN PRICES Weekly G-P-02 07/06/18 $ Per Cwt KANSAS CITY SORGHUM PRICES Weekly G-P-06 07/06/18 12

13 $ Per Ton 500 CENTRAL ILLINOIS SOYBEAN MEAL (48%) PRICES Weekly G-P-07 07/06/18 $ Per Ton 180 DISTILLERS GRAIN PRICES Nebraska, Weekly JAN 2017 Apr Jul Oct JAN 2018 Dried w/ Solubles Modified Wet Wet Apr Jul 07/06/18 $/cwt 105 KANSAS FEEDLOT CLOSEOUTS Feeding Costs per cwt., Steers Feed Cost of Gain 2018 $ Range: $0.75 to $ $ Range: $ $ Year Avg: $ $ Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Avg. 2012/ Data Source: KSU Focus on Feedlots, Compiled by LMIC 07/03/18 13

14 Cost of Gain in Feedlots Relatively Cheap Feedstuffs Could potentially become even cheaper with Tariffs When feed gets cheap, what happens? Without incentive to market cattle Feedlots will feed cattle longer, making them bigger, making already large beef supplies EVEN LARGER. Looking Forward Live Cattle What are Markets Projecting? Looking Forward Feeder Cattle What are Markets Projecting? 14

15 Looking Forward FL 550 lb. Feeder Steers What are Markets Projecting? $170 CME Projected Florida 550 lb. Feeder Steers Med.-Large, #1-2 MS, $/cwt. $165 $160 $156 $157 $157 $157 $155 $154 $153 $154 $152 $150 $145 $140 August 2018 September 2018 October 2018 November 2018 January 2018 March 2019 April 2019 May 2019 Looking Forward OKC Feeder Steers What is USDA Projecting? Summary 2018 U.S. Beef Production is projected to be record large. (up 1.2 Billion Pounds, Total 27.4 Billon Pounds) U.S. Red Meat and Poultry Supplies are expected to increase 2.8 Billion Pounds and total ~ 103 Billion Pounds. U.S. Meat Protein supplies are building in cold storage (up over 10 percent over last year). 15

16 Summary U.S. meat supply is expected to out pace U.S. meat demand resulting in lower meat prices. If Tariffs on U.S. meats are enforced, U.S. meat prices are expected to be pressured lower. Strong U.S. meat export demand is the glue that is holding things together (volume and value). Marketing 2018 Feeder Calves Chris Prevatt Beef Cattle and Forage Economics University of Florida, Range Cattle REC 16

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