Integrative, Inclusive and Informed Planning for Green Growth. Sonya Dewi

Transcription

1 Integrative, Inclusive and Informed Planning for Green Growth Sonya Dewi International Conference and Congress of The Indonesian Society of Agricultural Economics ICC-ISAE New Social Economics of Sustainable Agriculture and Food System: The Rise of Welfare State Approach Grand Inna Bali Beach Hotel Denpasar - Bali, August 2017

2 Outline Green Growth Planning in Indonesia Subnational GGP principles: integrative, inclusive, informed Lessons learnt from South Sumatra: process, output, next steps

3 GG planning in Indonesia

4 GGP of Indonesia Indonesia s Green Growth expected outcomes (State Ministry of National Development Planning/Bappenas, 2015): Sustained economic growth Inclusive and equitable growth Social, economic and environmental resilience Healthy and productive ecosystems providing services Greenhouse gas emission reduction Sectors: Energy and extractives: oil, gas, renewable power generation, non-renewable power generation, mining Manufacturing: production and processing industries, clean technologies, recycling waste Connectivity: telecommunications, transport, infrastructure, construction Renewable natural resources: forestry, agriculture, fisheries, land use activities, marine activities

5 South Sumatra: Vision, Scope and Rationales Strong commitment of the Governor of South Sumatra for Green Growth Highly in synergy with Indonesia s Green Growth expected outcomes (Bappenas, 2015) Focus of Green Growth for South Sumatra: renewable resources through the increased agricultural production and forestry while maintaining and restoring forests and peat by strengthening partnerships between the private sector, farmers, civil society and conservationists, especially in 5 main commodities: paddy rice, coffee, rubber, oil palm and industrial forest plantation (fiber for pulp and paper) Jurisdictional approach, synergizing interconnected agro-socio-ecological landscape management

6 Planning principles GGP: Integrative, Inclusive, Informed

7 Foundational principles in the planning process Integrative: coherence between the programs and activities across sectors and institutions as well as synchronization of expected outcomes across planning processes, e.g., development, spatial, conservation planning; Inclusive: relevant stakeholders within the vertical and horizontal processes should be actively involved so that the aspirations, concerns and constraints can be identified early enough; Informed: well founded by data, information and valid models so the ex-ante impact that would occur if a GG scenario is implemented can be understood and tradeoff analysis can be conducted LUMENS (Land Use Planning for Multiple Environmental Services) tool serves as the foresighting tool for trade-off analysis among ranges of GG and other development scenarios

8 I-O code Economic Sectors Agriculture 1 (including forestry) 2 Mining 3 Manufacturing Electricity, gas, 4 water 5 Construction Trade, hotels, 6 restaurants Transportation and 7 Communication Finance, real 8 estate, business 9 Services 190 Intermediate input 200 Import 201 Wages and salary Gross operating 202 surplus 203 Depreciation 204 Indirect taxes 205 Subsidy 209 Gross value added Gross value of 210 production Intermediate demand Total demand Import Final deman d Total supply

9 I-O code Economic Sectors Agriculture 1 (including forestry) 2 Mining 3 Manufacturing Electricity, gas, 4 water 5 Construction Trade, hotels, 6 restaurants Transportation and 7 Communication Finance, real 8 estate, business 9 Services 190 Intermediate input 200 Import 201 Wages and salary Gross operating 202 surplus 203 Depreciation 204 Indirect taxes 205 Subsidy Gross value added Gross value of production Intermediate demand Total demand Import Final dema nd Total supply

10 Logging Forest Plt for timber Forest Plt for pulp Oil palm Rubber Cacao Coffee Paddy rice Other annual crop Horticulture I-O code Economic Sectors Agriculture (including forestry) 1 2 Mining 3 Manufacturing Electricity, gas, 4 water 5 Construction 6 Trade, hotels, restaurants Transportation and 7 Communication Finance, real 8 estate, business 9 Services 190 Intermediate input 200 Import Intermediate demand Total demand Import Final dema nd Total supply 201 Wages and salary Gross operating 202 surplus 203 Depreciation 204 Indirect taxes 205 Subsidy Gross value added Gross value of production

11 Monetary unit Development planning: target, interventions, investment, policies Land use planning: allocation, conservation, restoration, policies Land Uses and Land cover dynamics Physical unit Green growth planning: expand, intensify, industrialize what and where Sustained economic growth Social: wellbeing, equity, resilience Ecosystem health: function and services, incl. cc mitigation

12 South Sumatra GG Planning: Process and Output

13 Stakeholder mapping, discussions, interviews, data stocktaking Dialogue with the Governor and head of sectors, kick off meeting Field data collection, secondary data collection, interviews, Focus Group Discussions with province and district stakeholders FGDs on private sector contribution to GGP with associations of Oil Palm (GAOKI) and Pulp&Paper (APHI) industries Discussion on the scenarios of GGP with the local governments and stakeholders Public consultation on the interim GGP scenarios and ex-ante impacts with province and district level stakeholders Public consultation of GGP and roadmap with stakeholders from province and district levels Revision and further analysis of the scenarios and roadmap September 2016 November 2016 January 2017 August 2016 October 2016 December 2016 Data collection, compilation, quality assessment, analysis and modelling Historical analysis and first draft of scenarios of BAU and GGP completed Interviews, discussions, data collection to develop roadmaps for the GGP with government offices, private sectors, academicians, NGOs, traders, farmer groups Presentation of GGP in COP 23 side event, Marrakech Analysis and roadmap development Finalization of the GGP and write-up of the document Discussions on the final draft with the province and district level stakeholders

14 Series of output Indicators of GG outcomes Strategies to reach GG Interventions within each strategies Roadmap of activities under interventions Map and Table of intervention areas Ex-ante impacts of GG plans vs BAU: table and maps Database and visualization tool of GGP South Sumatra

15 GG expected outcomes Sustained economic growth Inclusive and equitable growth Social, economic and environmental resilience Healthy and productive ecosystems providing services Greenhouse gas emission reduction Macro indicators 1. Growth of Gross Regional Domestic Product 2. Employment 3. Income 1. Ratio of income and firm profitability 2. Ratio of land managed by smallholders and concessions 1. Rate of agroforestry expansion 2. Linkages between land-based and other sectors 3. Profitability of smallholder-managed land use system 1. Deforestation rate 2. Tree cover gain 3. Sedimentation 4. Surface runoff 5. Habitat fragmentation/difa 6. Fire risk areas 1. Gross emission rate from mineral soil 2. Gross emission from peat areas 3. Sequestration rate

16 Scenarios BAU scenario is developed from the existing plans (development plan, sector master plans, spatial plan) combined with projection from historical trends GG scenario is developed from the strategies based on spatial analysis and models, driver analysis, interviews and FGDs with government offices, companies, academicians, NGOs, farmer groups in fully inclusive and participatory processes.

17 Land use planning and allocations that are compliant, effective and fair. Increased connectivity and economy of scale. Increased accesses to five capitals. Effective forest and landscape restoration. Effective incentive mechanism of ecosystem services and innovative funding 7 Strategies South Sumatra Improved productivity and multiple benefit from a unit area, e.g., agroforestry. Improved value chain with better benefit sharing. Green Growth Plan

18 Intervention Map Intervention 1: Land allocation that reconciles requirement and availability (social, economics and env) Intervention 2: Social forestry for livelihoods improvement Intervention 3: Pro-poor agrarian reform outside forest land Intervention 4: Prioritization of restoration areas Intervention 5: Rehabilitation and reclamation of mining sites Intervention 6: Limited areas for coffee expansion in suitable zones Intervention 7: Areas of rubber revitalization Intervention 8: Oil palm moratorium on peat and potential smallholder op on mineral soil Intervention 9: Micro-zonation of Ind Forest Plt (20% for partnerships and 10% conservation)

19 Intervention 1 Intervention 2 Intervention 3 Intervention 4 Intervention 5 Intervention 6 Intervention 7 Intervention 8 Intervention 9 District Land allocation that reconciles requirement and availability Social forestry for livelihoods improvement Pro-poor agrarian reform outside forest land Prioritization of restoration areas Rehabilitation and reclamation of mining sites Limited areas for coffee expansion in suitable zones Areas of rubber revitalization Oil palm moratorium on peat and potential smallholder op on mineral soil Micro-zonation of Ind Forest Plt (20% for partnerships and 10% conservation)

20 Projected land-use/cover and land-use/cover changes, ex-ante impacts on biodiversity, watershed performance, GRDP, land-use profitability, C-emission

21 BAU GGP

22 DIFA Index CONTRAST MAPS Biodiversity Degree of integration of focal areas Swamp forest Contrast Index 100 High Low BAU GGP Year HIST BAU GGP powered by LUMENS

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24 Million IDR Trillion IDR Thousand Projected Regional Economic Indicators based on GG strategies GRDP Labor Absorption BAU Strategy 1 GGP1-Land use plan and allocation BAU GGP1-Land Strategy use 1plan and allocation Income per Capita BAU Strategy 1 GGP1-Land use plan and allocation

25 Million IDR Trillion IDR Thousand Projected Regional Economic Indicators based on GG strategies GRDP Labor Absorption BAU GGP1-Land Strategy use 1 plan and allocation GGP2-Improve Strategy productivity Strategy 1 BAU GGP1-Land use plan and allocation GGP2-Improve productivity Income per Capita Strategy Strategy 1 Strategy BAU GGP1-Land use plan and allocation GGP2-Improve productivity

26 Million IDR Trillion IDR Thousand Projected Regional Economic Indicators based on GG strategies GRDP BAU Labor Absorption Strategy 1 GGP1-Land use plan and allocation GGP2-Improve Strategy productivity GGP3-Improve Strategy value chain BAU GGP1-Land Strategy use 1plan and allocation GGP2-Improve Strategy productivity GGP3-Improve Strategy value chain BAU Income per Capita Strategy 1 GGP1-Land use plan and allocation GGP2-Improve Strategy productivity GGP3-Improve Strategy value chain

27 M TON CO2-eq M TON CO2-eq Cumulative gross emissions Cumulative net emissions BAU GGP BAU GGP

28 BAU vs GGP GGP can reduce 22% of gross GHG emissions (ABG only, without fire emissions) by 2030; By 2030, net emission in production forest is negative (sequester) under GGP while it remains the largest source of emissions under BAU; GGP can contribute to maintenance of biodiversity at the landscape levels by halting habitat fragmentation of dryland forest and mangrove forest in the landscape. However for swamp forest, GGP cannot contribute much; Total NPV of land use systems (estimated by Spatial Cost-Benefit analysis of Annual Equivalent Annuity) under GGP is more than doubled than that of BAU by 2030; GRDP increased 6.4% under GGP compared to BAU by 2030; employment and income per capita also increased

29 Which GGP strategies have larger economics impacts? Expansion, intensification, downstream industries? Compared to BAU scenarios, strategy 1 alone, land use planning that balances cons-dev, in the short run reducing GRDP but in 2030 showing a slightly, but not significantly, higher GRDP; When combined with strategies 2 and 3 - improved productivity and benefit per unit area (intensification, good agricultural practices, agroforestry)- can increase GRDP as much as 3% from BAU; When further added with strategies 4 and 5 - value chain and downstream industries are improved- GRDP is 6.4% higher than BAU, through the multiplier effects

30 South Sumatra GG Planning: Next steps

31 Next steps Governor regulation on GG and institution that governs it: Leaderships: who should take this forward Communication strategy: what messages to whom and how Formalization, coordination: optimal and effective policy, institution to allow spaces for stakeholders to contribute, beyond the govt Financing and budgeting: multiple sources Piloting: road map has indicated the priority areas Mainstreaming: medium and long term development plan, spatial plan, NDC, SDG Monitoring: hierarchical structure from macro to micro level indicators Evaluation, data update, periodical reviews, revision Replication: pledges from provinces in Sumatra and other regions

32 Thank you very much Terima kasih