TANZANIA Food Security Update May 2010

Transcription

1 Food security has continued to improve at the national level. Household food availability has increased following the late vuli harvests which started in February in the bimodal areas, followed by green and msimu harvests which started in March in parts of the unimodal areas. However, there are still some localized areas of concern, such as the Northern and Southern Maasai Pastoralist Livelihood Zones, where households are recovering from the extended drought from The cessation of msimu rains has been reported in some unimodal areas, which has allowed the maturing crops to dry. The reduced rains will also allow road conditions to improve, facilitating the transportation and distribution of food to markets. In bimodal areas, crops are generally in good condition, ranging from early vegetative growth stages to advanced vegetative growth stages with adequate soil moisture. If masika rains continue to perform well, good masika harvests are expected. Following good production prospects around the country and in neighboring countries, the Tanzanian government has lifted the export ban on cereals, on the condition that farmers secure special permits issued by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives to facilitate the monitoring of food stocks. Figure 1. Current estimated food security conditions, May 2010 For more information on FEWS NET s Food Insecurity Severity Scale, please see: 3TUwww.fews.net/FoodInsecurityScaleU3T Source: FEWS NET Seasonal calendar and critical events Source: FEWS NET Food security overview Food security at the national level has continued to improve. Household food availability has continued to increase following vuli harvests which started in February in the bimodal areas, followed by green and msimu harvests which started FEWS NET Tanzania Tel: tanzania@fews.net FEWS NET Washington 1717 H St NW Washington DC info@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The authors views expressed in this publication do not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government.

2 in March in parts of the unimodal areas. These productive harvests and the resulting food availability have reduced market demand and subsequently reduced food prices. The ongoing agricultural activities in both bimodal and unimodal areas also continue to provide casual labor opportunities and income for casual labor dependent households, improving their ability to access food. Despite food security improvements, there are still areas of concern, including the Northern and Southern Maasai Pastoral Livelihood Zones (Simanjiro, Kiteto, Longido, Monduli, and Ngorongoro districts) where extended drought from caused animal deaths. Additionally, in the Singida Dodoma Sorghum, Bulrush Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock Livelihood Zone, the 2008/2009 crop production was below average, which has since worsened due to poor performance of the 2009/2010 msimu rains experienced in this zone. The Kagera region in the Kagera Kigoma Mara Banana, Coffee, and Beans Livelihood Zone faces crop pests and diseases which continue to affect banana and cassava production, while above average rains during the vuli season in 2009 reduced bean production. Additionally, in the Bagamoyo Kibaha Midland Cassava, Cashew, and Maize Livelihood Zone (in the eastern coastal area) the inadequate September to December vuli rains led to below average crop production (Figure 2). Figure 2. Food insecure livelihood zones in Tanzania The Northern and Southern Maasai Pastoral Livelihood Zones (Simanjiro, Kiteto, Longido, Monduli, and Ngorongoro) experienced extended drought following the consecutive failed vuli and masika rain seasons between 2007 and The extended drought led to increased livestock deaths, specifically impacting pregnant and lactating animals, which in turn decreased milk production and the availability of livestock for sale. The resulting situation has affected the incomes of pastoral households and has lowered protein intake as a Selected Livelihood Zones Southern Maasai Pastoralist Northern Maasai Pastoralist Kagera-Kigoma-Mara Banana, Coffee, and Beans Bagamoyo-Kibaha Midland Cassava, Cashew, and Maize Singida-Dodoma Sorghum, B/Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock Source: FEWS NET result of deteriorating milk availability. The 2009/10 vuli rains and the ongoing masika rains have facilitated improvement in pastures and water sources, leading to improvements in animal body conditions, yet livestock sales have remained low due to the necessary rebuilding of stocks. Milk production is still limited and the situation is not expected to improve until the start of the calving period in September. Although vuli harvests have improved grain availability, poor households do not have enough livestock to sell and milk production is still limited leaving poor households with limited incomes which affect their ability to access food. Additionally, these zones are deficient grain producers requiring that grains be sourced from outside of the zone while the prices for grains have remained above the five year average. Poor households therefore continue to experience food insecurity in these livelihood zones. The February 2010 Rapid Vulnerability Assessment (RVA) estimated that 25 percent of the population in Simanjiro, 24 percent in Longido, 15 percent in Ngorongoro, 12 percent in Monduli, and 12 percent in the Kiteto district are experiencing food insecurity. In the central regions (Singida Dodoma Sorghum Bulrush Millet, Sunflower, and Livestock Livelihood Zone) the 2009/2010 msimu seasonal rains have been erratic and unevenly distributed, leaving households likely to experience below normal crop harvests. This follows the poor production from the 2009 msimu season which left many households with inadequate crop harvests and inadequate casual labor related incomes across the zone, triggering consumption of greens earlier than normal. Currently msimu harvests have started for many households and food availability has improved slightly, however below normal harvests are still expected. The below normal msimu harvests will most likely cause many households to shift to market dependence earlier than normal (before October), increasing demand and food prices. The poor performance of the msimu season also continues to limit agricultural labor opportunities and related incomes in the area, causing many poor households to depend heavily on poultry sales to garner income. This coping strategy is typical but the early implementation of it is atypical, causing the depletion of household poultry earlier than usual and potentially initializing a move into adverse coping strategies (ex. charcoal making, selling of household assets, etc.) before the onset of the hunger season in October. The food supply in markets will most likely be favorable following good msimu harvests expected in adjacent areas in the unimodal areas. However, high transportation costs will most likely keep prices high thus limiting food accessibility locally in this area. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 Crop diseases continue to spread and reduce crop production in the Kagera region within the Kagera Kigoma Mara Banana, Coffee, and Beans Livelihood Zone. Bananas, the main staple in the region, have continued to suffer from the continuous spread of diseases and pests (Banana Xanthomonas Wilt, Panama, Banana weevil, etc.) while cassava, which is an alternative and buffer crop, has been affected by cassava mosaic disease (CMD). The decreasing banana production and associated lack of availability have caused banana prices to increase significantly, forcing many households to shift to cereal consumption sourced from markets. Given that the area is not a large producer of cereals, these foods must be sourced from outside of the zone, warranting high transportation costs which are likely to keep cereal prices high and limit food access by the poor. During the vuli season, the main season for bean production in the region, the above normal 2009/2010 vuli rains caused beans to rot in the fields which affected both household income and the availability of protein. The ongoing above normal masika rains are likely to affect bean production in some other areas, thus increasing further bean deficits. The affected households currently depend on sweet potatoes, cassava, and yams which are not sufficient to substitute their staple foods. Additionally, casual labor opportunities are limited in coffee fields in this area due to poor coffee prices, thus limiting food access and availability for poor households. Seasonal progress Normally May is an important period for cessation of msimu rains and the start of msimu harvests in unimodal areas. Field reports indicate that harvests have started while rains have initially ceased in parts of the central region, however, belownormal crop production is still expected due to the overall poor performance of the msimu rains in this area this year. The Tanzania Meteorological Agency (TMA) indicates that some parts of the unimodal areas continue to experience reduced rains (Figure 3) which facilitate drying of the maturing crops. The dryness in those areas will also allow road conditions to improve facilitating food transportation and distribution to markets. With most parts of the unimodal areas receiving adequate rains for crop production this season, good crop production is expected. The start of the msimu harvests has increased household food supplies and reduced dependence on markets. Figure 3. April 2010 rainfall distribution (mm) In bimodal areas, crops are progressing well and range from the early vegetative (late planting) stage to advanced vegetative growth stage (for the early planted crops) with adequate soil moisture supply. If the rains continue, good masika harvests will be realized. Weeding is the major activity occupying most farmers especially over lowland areas of the northeastern highlands and northern coast (Tanga and Coast regions). Picking of the early planted cotton has started in the Lake Victoria zone where cotton is a major cash crop. Source: Tanzania Meteorological Agency Pasture conditions and water levels in dams across the country are adequate for maintaining the improved animal body conditions and associated milk production for agro pastoral households (an important source of income and part of the diet). Adequate water levels in dams are also important for hydroelectric power production which sustains industrial operations and in turn provides casual labor opportunities, particularly for casual labor dependent households in urban areas. Markets and trade All markets across the country continue to receive adequate food supplies and the prices for major staples (maize, rice, and beans) continue to decline in most markets following increased household food supplies from vuli harvests in bimodal areas. Furthermore, following the good production prospects, traders continue to release their stocks to prepare for the Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 purchase of new crops from the msimu harvests, which have started in the central regions and from the masika harvests, which are expected to start in July. However, due to high transportation costs caused by consistently high fuel prices, food prices remain above their five year average. Maize prices have continued to decline in all markets across the country between March and April, though they still remained above the five year average in most markets with the exception of the Songea market and a few other areas. During this period, significant price declines were recorded in Songea (47 percent), Lindi (36 percent), Mtwara and Shinyanga (30 percent), Musoma (26 percent), and Babati and Morogoro (20 percent). Rice prices have declined in many markets and while few markets have exhibited price stabilization, all remained above the five year price average. More significant price declines were recorded in Singida and Babati (14 percent), Kigoma (12 percent), and Mbeya (8 percent). The decline in rice prices is attributed to increased household food availability resulting from the vuli and msimu green harvests as well as market releases of traders stocks. Many rural and urban households depend on beans as their main source of protein. The prices for beans have declined in most markets mainly because of increased market supplies from the vuli and msimu harvests and also due to increased household supply of beans and the availability of green vegetables and other pulses. Between March and April, significant bean price declines were recorded in Lindi (14 percent), Mtwara (9 percent), Mwanza and Tabora (8 percent) and Iringa (7 percent). Decreasing bean prices improve the ability of many poor households to access an important source of protein, as the prices of other protein sources (sardines, beef, milk, etc.) remain high. Following the generally good production prospects in the country and the good production in neighboring countries like Kenya, the Tanzanian government has lifted the cereal export ban, on the condition that farmers secure special permits to be issued by the Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Cooperatives to facilitate the monitoring of food stocks. Lifting the export ban will enable farmers, particularly in the southern highlands who produced large amounts of food during the 2009 msimu season, to access external markets and earn income that would improve their purchasing power of non food items and improve their prospects for future farm investment. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin May 2010 Maize is the main staple crop in Tanzania. Rice and beans are also very important, the latter constituting the main source of protein for most low and middle income households. Dar es Salaam is the main consumer market in the country. Arusha is another important market and is linked with Kenya in the north. Dodoma represents the central region of the country, a semi arid, deficit area. Kigoma is an important cross border market with connections to both the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi. Mtwara sits in a south coastal deficit area while Songea and Mbeya represent the southern highlands. Tanga is also a coastal town in the north, with trade connections with Kenya. Monthly prices are supplied by FEWS NET enumerators, local government agencies, market information systems, UN agencies, NGOs, and other network and private sector partners. Famine Early Warning Systems Network i

6 ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin May 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network ii

7 ANNEX: Tanzania Monthly Price Bulletin May 2010 Famine Early Warning Systems Network iii