Western Canadian Cow-Calf Survey

Transcription

1 Western Canadian Cow-Calf Survey June 13-14, 2016 SSGA AGM & Convention, Regina, SK Kathy Larson WBDC Beef Economist

2 Overview The Profit-Production Link WCCCS Background Survey Says. Cost Example of RMP Adoption Next Steps

3 The Profit-Production Link

4 The Profit-Production Link Unit Cost of Production or Break-Even Price = TOTAL COW HERD COSTS TOTAL LBS OF CALF WEANED Lower break-even in one of two ways: Decrease the numerator (costs) Increase the denominator (lbs of calf to sell)

5 The Profit-Production Link Unit Cost of Production or Break-Even Price = TOTAL COW HERD COSTS TOTAL LBS OF CALF WEANED CONCEPTION RATE CALVING RATE WEAN RATE % CALVED IN FIRST 21 D OPEN RATE CALF DEATH LOSS CALVING SPAN

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7 WCCCS Background Funded by SK Agriculture Development Fund AB conducted cow-calf surveys in 80s & late 90s to generate provincial benchmarks Last one in 1998 involved over 1700 producers Collaboration between BC, AB, SK & MB to revive & expand the AB survey to establish Western Canadian production benchmarks

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9 WCCCS Survey Details 58 Q s minutes to complete Qs from 2013 Breeding to 2014 Calf Crop By design, asks what a producer did, not why they did what they did Survey ran from November 2014 to end of February 2015 No $ compensation Complimentary report with indicators

10 WCCCS Background Generate an updated set of production benchmarks for the cow-calf industry Historical comparison with previous study how has industry changed Guide extension and research efforts Identify which management practices are linked to strong production performance

11 Survey Says.

12 WCCCS Survey Findings WCCCS AB SASK MB # Responses Average Age Avg # Years Raising Cattle Responses by Province 8% 5% 49% 24% 18% 40% 30% 12% % of National Beef Cow Herd

13 35% 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% WCCCS: Herd Size WCCCS AB SASK MB # Females Calved in % 25% 21% 20% 18% 17% 14% 10% 8% WCCCS SK 15% 11% 12% 0% <

14 Reproduction Indicators WCCCS AB SASK MB Cow:Bull Ratio 24:1 24.5:1 25:1 30:1 Breeding Season, days % w 63 d or less 25% 29% 24% 19% % Bred heifers earlier 26% 26% 27% 20% Avg # Days earlier Open Rate (Cows) 7% 6.6% 7% 7.7% Open Rate (Heifers) 10% 7.5% 9.9% 6.9%

15 2013 Breeding Management 1998 WCCCS AB SASK MB Pregnancy Check Cows Pregnancy Check Heifers 49% 60% 58% 64% 65% -- 66% 64% 67% 67% Semen Test 51% 64% 63% 75% 59% Artificial Insemination Estrus Synchronization -- 18% 19% 17% 22% -- 11% 10% 14% 13%

16 Calving Start 40% 35% 30% WCCCS SK 65% start calving after March 15 34% 25% 23% 24% 20% 15% 10% 5% 15% 10% 19% 12% 18% 18% 13% 5% 8% 0% January February Mar 1-15 Mar April May

17 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Calving Distribution Ideally, 60%+ calving in first 21 d Close to 50% met this target Improvement from 98 48% in 1 st 21 d Source: WCCCS 55% 30% Calves can gain lb/d X 21 $1.90/lb = $ % Day 1-21 Day Day Day 63+ 4%

18 2014 SK Calf Crop 7% Average Calf Death Loss 28% Implanted Calves Of those who implanted, 21% implanted 2X 28% Provided Creep Feed 40% Wean Wt as % of Dam Wt 492 lb Weaned per Cow Wintered

19 2014 Calf Marketing 74% sold calves at weaning 43% sold more than 50% of their calves at weaning 29% preconditioned 30-60d 36% retained calves to background 9% retain to feedlot finish 66% who sold calves at weaning, sold 100% via live auction

20 SK Production Practices 84% supplied trace mineral in summer; 100% in winter (EVEN/UP from 84% & 90% in 98) 20% Body Condition Score ( from 23% in 98) Cow wt: ~1385 lb <20% provided scale wt 92% vaccinate (UP SLIGHTLY from 90% in 98) 77% vaccinate pre-breeding 12% inject in rump & hind ¼ ( from 29% in 98)

21 Calf Vaccinations in 1998

22 SK Winter Feeding Close to 60% lab test feed for quality Of those, close to 80% use results for ration balancing 65% sort cows for winter feeding Stage, 31% Other, 2% Age, 83% Condition, 74%

23 Winter Feeding Methods 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 62% have 2-3 winter feeding methods 80% WCCCS 55% 46% 41% 33% 24% 24% 27% 28% 24% 17% 18% 17% SK 74% 67% 17% 26% 10% 0% 6% 6% Silage, Grain, TMR

24 WCCCS Extensive Feeding 70% Percent of respondents who utilize Swathgrazing, Bale grazing, Stockpiled Grass, Standing Corn or Crop Residue for Beef Cow s winter feeding program 67% 60% 55% 56% 56% 50% 40% 30% 27% 20% 10% 0% All BC AB SK MB n=382 n=26 n=191 n=91 n=74

25 Cost of Recommended Management Practice (RMP) Adoption

26 Recommended Mgt Practices Reproduction is 5X more important than Growth Rate & 10X more important than Carcass Quality (Willham 1973) Targets shared by Dr. John Campbell: 95% Conception (WCCCS SK 93%) 63 d Breeding Season Cows (WCCCS SK 92 d) 45 d for Heifers, but d earlier than Cows (WCCCS SK 92 d & 14 d earlier by only 27%) 65%+ Calved in 1 st 21 d (WCCCS SK 55%)

27 Recommended Mgt Practices Vaccinate Pre-Breeding w MLV (WCCCS SK 77%) Semen Test Bulls, Test for Trich/Vibrio (WCCCS SK 75%, 24% & 14%) Maintain Body Condition Maintain Calving Interval (WCCCS SK 20% BCS, 65% sort for winter feeding)

28 RMP: Pregnancy Checking Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females Live 70 km from clinic YES NO

29 RMP: Pregnancy Checking Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females Live 70 km from clinic YES NO $4.45/female x 350 = ~$1560 plus $170 mileage $1730 or ~$5/female

30 RMP: Pregnancy Checking Pregnancy checking herd of 350 females Live 70 km from clinic YES $4.45/female x 350 = ~$1560 plus $170 mileage $1730 or $5/female NO Feed 150 d x $2.50/d = $375/cow If 7% open (25 hd) $9375 in feed, yardage, labour

31 $/cwt 10 Yr Avg D1,D2 Price - AB Gained back by April % Drop ~$148 on 1350 lb cow Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source: CanFax

32 Mar 23 BCRC Blog As winter feeding cost, makes more sense to sell opens in fall Expected ADG influences sell/feed decision If spring price below $0.75/lb sell in fall Interactive web tool available online Source:

33 Interactive Tool Source:

34 D1,D2 Cow Price, $/cwt Change in Value $/hd Is Keeping Opens Worth It? $171 $207 Change Fall Price Spring Price $629 $555 $296 $306 $392 $489 The change in cull cow prices from Fall to the following Spring $310 $303 often doesn t cover the cost of feeding her. $ $700 $600 $500 $400 $300 $200 $100 $- Assume 1.25 lb/d ADG; 150 d $2.50/hd/d 1250 lb to 1437 lb Fall Price is the average November price for D1,D2 cows in AB Spring Price is the average April price for D1,D2 cows in AB

35 Next Steps

36 RMP Cost & Benefit Re-survey producers to determine why or why not RMPs (recommended mgt practices) are followed Collect data to calculate cost of production Collect production measures Why are some RMPs followed while others are not? Does it matter? Is productivity and profitability connected to RMP adoption?

37 In Closing Remember the profit production link National Beef Strategy Productivity Pillar increase production efficiency 15% by 2020 Increased adoption of RMPs & existing technologies can help industry reach this target Be part of the follow-up study to share why you do what you do on your operation

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39 Any Questions? Kathy Larson Cell: Channel: WSTRNBEEF