National crop yield statistics and yield forecasting in France

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1 6 th CGMS Expert Meeting National crop yield statistics and yield forecasting in France Auriane RENAUD, Statistical Service of French Ministry of Agriculture

2 I. Dissemination II. Drawing up of yield forecasting - organization - calendar - sources III. Results 2

3 I. Dissemination > The Statistical Service of French Ministry of Agriculture produces the official statistics for agricultural production. > Forecasts and estimates for arable crops are available online : > Sent to Eurostat under EU regulation 3

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6 II- Drawing up of monthly production estimates 1. organization : monthly syntheses drawn up by each region (22 administrative regions) At the end of every month, each region sends estimates of areas, and then yields according to a predefined calendar, using the best data sources available at the date. Available sources depend on region, date and crop calendar. 6

7 2. Forecasts adapted to crops calendar 80 % Sowing year Sowing and harvest calendar Harvesting year First a re a estimate for wheat First a re a estimate for maize First yie ld estimate for wheat First yie ld estimate formaize % wheat sown during the month % wheat harvested during the month % maize sown during the month % maize harvested during the month A S O N D J F M A M J Jt A S O N D 7

8 Estimates dissemination calendar Crops Month December January February March April May June July August September October November Wheat AREA AREA AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield winter barley AREA AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield spring barley AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Maize AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield rapeseed AREA AREA SURF AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield Yield sunflower AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield Yield sugarbeet AREA AREA AREA AREA AREA Yield Yield Yield First yield estimates are made 1 or 2 months before harvest for cereals and rapeseed and 2 or 3 months before harvest for the crops harvested in autumn (maize, sugarbeet, sunflower) 8

9 3. Sources to estimate yields : local expert networks & Arable crops farm survey N-1 N aug sept oct nov dec jan febr mar apr may jun jul aug sept oct nov déc Crops Autumn sowing Spring sowing HARVESTS Estimate object AREA AREA AREAAREAAREA AREA,YIELD AREAS sources Local experts networks, seed sales Arable crops farm survey (sowing intentions on december, sowed areas on may) Land cover and use by sample points survey on june-july, arable lands declarations on july-august YIELD sources Local experts networks Arable crops farm survey (after harvest's end) 9

10 Area and yield survey : terres labourables (arable crop survey) 10

11 Purpose and principles * The main source for yield estimates - Annual survey. - Estimates of crop yields from national level until nuts 3 level, after the harvest - Also early estimates of crop areas * Sampling frame - Survey unit : farms with arable land - Farms of the sample are questionned about areas and yields of all crops - Geografical field : 66 french «départements» (nuts 3) : Arable land of département > ha, And area for one crop > ha. 11

12 Surveyed crops Wheat (98 % - percent of 66 departements surveyed) Durum wheat (83 %) Winter barley (95 %) Spring barley (97 %) oat (89 %) rye (64 %) Triticale (81 %) rapeseed (98 %) peas (98 %) Horse bean (99 %) sunflower (96 %) Soja (92 %) Sorghum (89 %) Maize (96 %) Fodder maize (94 %) Maize seed (90 %) Sugarbeet (100 %) Potato (98 %) 12

13 Sampling - Sampling = all farms with arable land ; farms in 66 départements. - Use of a grid of points Teruti-Lucas with arable land - Then declarations of areas (CAP) are used to identify farm owners of these points - A panel of farms updated every year with points of the grid in or out of arable land 13

14 Precision degree for yield (national level) Wheat (0,2 %) Durum wheat (0,6 %) Winter barley (0,3 %) Spring barley (0,4 %) Oat (1 %) Rye (2,6 %) Triticale (0,7 %) rapeseed (0,3 %) Peas (0,6 %) Horse peas (1 %) Sunflower (0,6 %) Soja (1,8 %) Sorghum (2,3 %) Maize (0,4 %) Fodder maize (0,5 %) Sugarbeet (0,5 %) Potato (1,1 %) 14

15 Calendar Step 1 on july-august : yield of cereals (except maize) and rapeseed, peas and horse beans Step 2 on november december: yields of the other crops (sunflower, maize, sugarbeet) and sowing for the next year (sowing of winter crops and sowing intentions for crops sown on spring) Step 3 on april-may : all sown areas. Survey carried out by phone 15

16 III. Results percentage of change compared to the yield of the previous year 4% 2013 : unfavorable year for summer crops yields 2% 0% -2% -4% -6% -8% -10% june july august september october november soft wheat winter barley spring barley grain maïze winter rapeseed sunflowerseed -12% 2013 yield estimates for each month, for main crops source : Agreste (Statistical service of French Ministry of Agriculture) 16

17 Yield of soft wheat : percentage of evolution for a given month, in comparison with reference data First estimation (july) Definitive data (february next year) source : Agreste (Statistical service of French Ministry of Agriculture) 17

18 Conclusion Our aim is to improve our earlier yield estimates (june, july), before the survey results are available. With this goal in mind, we work with local experts network and we work on the possibilities to use data from Mars programme. 18

19 A model already in use in France : "ISOP", a model for grassland production Cumulated production expressed in % of annual production for an average year («reference») Source : Agreste - Isop-Météo- France-INRA