END OF SEASON REPORT THE GAMBIA

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1 This Africa RiskView End of Season Report is a publication by the African Risk Capacity (ARC). The report discusses Africa RiskView s estimates of rainfall, drought and population affected, comparing them to information from the ground and from external sources. It also provides the basis of a validation exercise of Africa RiskView, which is conducted in each country at the end of an insured season. This exercise aims at reviewing the performance of the model and ensuring that the country s drought risk is accurately reproduced by Africa RiskView for drought monitoring and insurance coverage. Highlights: Rainfall: Below average performance of the 2016 rainy season, coupled with a delayed start and early end of the seasonal rains in most of The Gambia. Drought: At the end of the 2016 agricultural season, Africa RiskView estimates that the crop water requirements are fully satisfied in eastern and western regions of The Gambia, while some crop water deficits were recorded in central areas. Despite the below average performance of the rainy season, compared to the 5-year median, the WRSI is normal to above normal throughout the country. Rainfall The rainy season in The Gambia lasts from mid-june to mid- November. During the 2016 season, cumulative rainfall totals varied across the different regions. In eastern Gambia (Upper River Region), around 600 mm of cumulative rainfall were recorded, while most of Central River Region in central Gambia only received between 400 and 550 mm. In the western parts of the country, rainfall varied between 500 and 600 mm in North Bank and Lower River regions, while the far south-west (West Coast Region) received over 700 mm of rain. Compared to the average, rainfall in most of The Gambia was 10-30% below normal, with the exception of the far south-west and the eastern parts of the country (Upper River Region), where only minor rainfall deficits (5-10% below normal) were recorded. In terms of cumulative rainfall deficits, the most severe deficits at district level were experienced in Lower Saloum (150 mm). Similar deficits ( mm) were recorded in other districts in the central parts of The Gambia. Regarding the spatial and temporal distributions of the 2016 rains, it appears that rainfall during the first month of the season was below average, particularly in central and eastern Gambia. Most Affected Populations: Due to the overall good performance of the season, Africa RiskView does not estimate that drought will have a significant impact on vulnerable populations at the end of the 2016 agricultural season in The Gambia. ARC Risk Pool: Given that no significant drought impact was modelled by Africa RiskView, no payout from ARC Ltd was triggered during the 2016/17 policy year. of the country experienced a short dry-spell in early August, with little to no rains received in the central and western parts of the country. In these areas, the season also ended earlier than normal in October Conversely, some parts of eastern Gambia recorded slightly above normal rainfall towards the end of the season in October. Compared to rainfall measured by stations on the ground, it appears that the RFE2 satellite estimates capture the overall trends well. Cumulative rainfall totals are slightly under-estimated by the satellite datasets, which can however be adjusted for in the customisation of Africa RiskView. Drought The in-country Technical Working Group (TWG) chose to use groundnut as reference crop in Africa RiskView, to monitor the progress of the agricultural season in The Gambia. Based on the country-specific customisation, the season starts in mid-june (11-20 June) and ends in mid-november (11-20 November). The planting window, during which Africa RiskView assumes farmers usually start planting their crops, lasts from mid-june to the end of July.

2 Cumulative rainfall (in mm), The Gambia, 11 Jun-20 Nov 2016 (RFE2) Cumulative rainfall in % of average, The Gambia, 11 Jun-20 Nov 2016 (RFE2) End-of-season WRSI, The Gambia, 2016 agricultural season End-of-season WRSI compared to benchmark (5-year median), The Gambia, 2016 agricultural season At the end of the planting window (31 July), planting conditions were reached throughout the country. The threshold was reached between late June and early July in the western and eastern parts of the country, and from mid to end of-july in the central parts of The Gambia. This corresponds to the normal planting dekad in the east and most of western Gambia, but marks a delay of up to two dekads compared to normal in the central parts of the country. Despite the overall slightly below normal performance of the 2016 rainy season, Africa RiskView estimates that overall, the water requirements of the reference crop (groundnut) were satisfied in most parts of the country. In areas where below average rainfall was received (mostly in the central parts of the country), this resulted in lower WRSI values compared to other parts of the country. The most affected areas are in Central River North and Janjanbureh in central Gambia, where the crop water requirements were not fully satisfied, mainly due to water deficits during the crop ripening phase. In the eastern parts of the country, where the rainy season also experienced an erratic start but then recovered, the WRSI is higher than the country average. Despite little to no rainfall towards the end of the season, good rains in preceding months resulted in sufficient soil moisture to allow for a normal crop development. However, the higher than normal rainfall at the end of the season likely negatively affected the quality and quantity of groundnut production, which is not directly expressed in the WRSI. Compared to the benchmark selected by the TWG to model normal conditions (median of the previous 5 years), it appears that most of the country experienced better than normal conditions.

3 Population affected estimates, , The Gambia Greater Banjul Area, The Gambia Lower Nuimi, The Gambia However, some parts of central and western Gambia experienced normal to slightly below normal conditions. Regarding the situation on the ground, initial information from field visits suggested poor crop production totals during the 2016 agricultural season, comparable to 2014, which was attributed to the overall poor performance of the rains, as well as above normal rainfall in October in parts of eastern Gambia, which might have affected groundnut production (and which would not have been expressed directly in the WRSI). While production and surface cultivated figures in total for groundnut are amongst the lowest for the period, it appears that yields performed better. It is not clear what the impact of other factors such as floods, pests and aflatoxins had on crop production in ARC Risk Pool Given that Africa RiskView estimates that drought did not have a significant impact on vulnerable populations in The Gambia in 2016, and that the trigger set by the TWG was not reached, the country did not receive a payout from ARC Ltd at the end of the 2016 agricultural seasons. The Gambia has participated in the ARC Risk Pool since the 2015/16 season. Affected Populations Based on the customisation of Africa RiskView selected by the TWG for the 2016/17 ARC Risk Pool, the total number of people vulnerable to drought in The Gambia is just over 300,000,. At the end of the 2016 agricultural season, the model estimates that no people are affected, given the overall normal to above normal performance of the WRSI throughout the country. The modelled historical average number of people affected by drought in The Gambia is around 90,000 people. Africa RiskView s in-season estimates for 2016 initially pointed towards a potentially higher than average number of people affected, due to the delayed start of the rains. However, with improving rainfall conditions from July onwards, the in-season estimates gradually decreased over the course of the season. At the time of writing, no information on food insecure and drought affected populations was available.

4 Fonis, The Gambia North Bank West, The Gambia Baddibu, The Gambia Kiang, The Gambia Jarra West, The Gambia Jarra, The Gambia Lower Saloum, The Gambia Central River North, The Gambia Niamina, The Gambia

5 Janjanbureh, The Gambia Upper River North, The Gambia Fulladu East, The Gambia

6 About ARC: The African Risk Capacity (ARC) is a specialised agency of the African Union designed to improve the capacity of AU Member States to manage natural disaster risk, adapt to climate change and protect food insecure populations. The Africa RiskView software is the technical engine of ARC. It uses satellite-based rainfall information to estimate the costs of responding to a drought, which triggers a corresponding insurance payout. The ARC Insurance Company Limited is the financial affiliate of the ARC Agency, which pools risk across the continent through issuing insurance policies to participating countries. Note on Africa RiskView s Methodology: Rainfall: Africa RiskView uses various satellite rainfall datasets to track the progression of rainy seasons in Africa. Countries intending to participate in the ARC Risk Pool are required to customise the rainfall component by selecting the dataset which corresponds the best to the actual rainfall measured on the ground. Drought: Africa RiskView uses the Water Requirements Satisfaction Index (WRSI) as an indicator for drought. The WRSI is an index developed by the Food and Agriculture Organisation of the United Nations (FAO), which, based on satellite rainfall estimates, calculates whether a particular crop is getting the amount of water it needs at different stages of its development. To maximise the accuracy of Africa RiskView, countries intending to take out insurance customise the software s parameters to reflect the realities on the ground. Affected Populations: Based on the WRSI calculations, Africa RiskView estimates the number of people potentially affected by drought for each country participating in the insurance pool. As part of the in-country customisation process, vulnerability profiles are developed at the sub-national level for each country, which define the potential impact of a drought on the population living in a specific area. Response Costs: In a fourth and final step, Africa RiskView converts the numbers of affected people into response costs. For countries participating in the insurance pool these national response costs are the underlying basis of the insurance policies. Payouts will be triggered from the ARC Insurance Company Limited to countries where the estimated response cost at the end of the season exceeds a pre-defined threshold specified in the insurance contracts. Disclaimer: The data and information contained in this report have been developed for the purposes of, and using the methodology of, Afri ca RiskView and the African Risk Capacity Group. The data in this report is provided to the public for information purposes only, and neither the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents make any representation or warranty regarding the fitness of the data and information for any particular purpose. In no event shall the ARC Agency, its affiliates nor each of their respective officers, directors, employees and agents be held liable with respect to any subject matter presented here. Payouts under insurance policies issued by ARC Insurance Company Limited are calculated using a stand-alone version of Africa RiskView, the results of which can differ from those presented here.