National WIC Association

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1 National WIC Association Monthly Food Price Brief September 21, 2012 This monthly food price brief is designed to assist States in monitoring rising food costs by tracking the Consumer Price Index and average retail prices from the Bureau of Labor statistics and Thrifty Food Plan Index published by the US Department of Agriculture. The Thrifty Food Index In the past, the monthly publication of the Thrifty Food Plan (TFP) costs released by the USDA s Center for Nutrition Policy and Promotion was used to calculate the WIC Food Package inflation factor. The cost of the TFP for a reference family (couple ages 20-50, two children ages 2-3 and 4-5) increased by 2.0% in July from a year earlier. In terms of dollars, the monthly cost of TFP was $ in July 2012, an increase of $10.50 from July Consumer Price Index The Consumer Price Index (CPI) published by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) is the most widely used measure of general price changes in the U.S. economy. It s a measure of the average change in prices paid by urban consumers for a fixed market of goods and services, including food. The CPI for food at home is a component of the CPI and is the Nation s principal indicator of changes in retail food prices. Thus, this index is watched closely by policy makers. The CPI for food at home (purchased at grocery and other food stores) increased by 1.9% in July 2012 compared to July The individual CPI for fruits and vegetables decreased by 0.7% in July from a year ago with different pricing trends for fresh and processed options. The price of baby foods increased by 3.2% during the same period. Meanwhile, USDA Economic Research Service forecasts CPI for food at home to increase from 2.5 to 3.5 percent in 2012 and from 3.0 to 4.0 percent in Page 1

2 CPI: Fruits/Vegetables 12-Month Percentage Change 5% 0% Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July -5% Fresh Canned Frozen Dried 2% CPI: Baby Food 12-Month Percentage Change 1% 1% 0% -1% Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan '12 Feb Mar Apr May June July -1% -2% Page 2

3 Average Retail Price According to BLS data, the national average retail price for a gallon of milk decreased by 6.2% to $3.43 from a year earlier; and a pound of peanut butter went up by 37.3% to $2.79. Please see the table below for actual price changes and figures for July 2011 to July 2012 percentage changes for selected WIC foods. Moreover, a snapshot of fruit and vegetable price is illustrated in the next page. Food and Unit July 12 June 12 July 11 Eggs, Grade A, large per dozen $1.65 $1.67 $1.65 Milk, fresh, whole, fortified, per gallon $3.43 $3.40 $3.65 American processed cheese, per pound $4.05 $4.03 $4.09 Cheddar cheese, natural, per pound $5.46 $5.48 $5.60 Orange juice, frozen concentrate, 12 oz/can, per 16 oz. $2.64 $2.64 $2.73 Peanut butter, creamy, per pound $2.79 $2.79 $2.03 Beans, dried, any type per pound $1.43 $1.44 $1.38 Whole wheat bread, per pound $1.97 $2.94 $1.85 Percentage change in average retail price for 1 year Orange juice Beans Peanut butter Whole wheat Cheddar Eggs American Milk -40% 0% 40% Page 3

4 US Average Prices for Selected Fruits & Vegetables $2.50 $2.00 $1.50 $1.00 $0.50 $0.00 July 2012 Per Pound Price Fruit and Vegetable Market News USDA s Agriculture Marketing Service (AMS) releases the National Fruit and Vegetable Retail Report each Friday that features the weekly advertised retail activity and prices on the most commonly consumed fresh fruits and vegetables, including organic products. AMS Market News surveys over 200 retailers web sites covering more than 17,000 individual stores across the US. The AMS report provides weighted average retail prices at both regional and national levels. According to the report, the top 5 featured commodities this past week were grapes, salad, potatoes, pears, and apples. The retail report is available on the Portal Web site. Please visit the websites below to read the full Fruit and Vegetable Market News report: ( or ( Page 4

5 Commodity Forecasts The World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report is a monthly publication released by USDA that provides comprehensive forecasts of US and world supply and demand for major grains, soybeans, cotton, and sugar, and US livestock products. The report provides an analysis of the most current condition of the agricultural commodity markets. The following highlights are from the most recent publication, released on August 10, The projected seasonal average of U.S. farm prices in 2012/13 for wheat are estimated at $7.60 to $9.00 per bushel, up from last month s range of $6.20 to $7.40 and compared with $6.78 per bushel in 2008; projected corn prices are estimated at $7.50 to $8.90 per bushel, up from last month s range of $5.40 to $6.20 and compared with $3.30 to $3.90 per bushel in 2008; and projected soybean prices are estimated at $15.00 to $17.00 per bushel, up from last month s range of $13.00 to $15.00 and compared with $9.97 per bushel in In the Media Rabobank Sees Record Food Prices as Grain Costs Spur Meat Exits According to a BloombergBusinessweek article released on September 19, 2012, World food prices will exceed the all-time high set last year as droughts in the U.S., South America and Russia push up animal feed costs, spurring meat and dairy farmers to cut herds, Rabobank International said. Food prices tracked by the United Nations may climb 15 percent by June 2013, surpassing the record set in February 2011, Nick Higgins, an analyst at the bank, said in a report today. Grain and oilseed prices should remain at elevated levels for at least the next 12 months to ration demand and encourage crop farmers to boost planting, he said. To read the full article, visit: 19/rabobank-sees-record-food-prices-as-grain-costs-spur-meat-exits#disqus_thread 2001 S Street, NW, Suite 580 Washington, DC Page 5