Aquaculture in England, Wales and Northern Ireland

Transcription

1 Aquaculture in England, Wales and Northern Ireland AN ANALYSIS OF THE ECONOMIC CONTRIBUTION AND VALUE OF THE MAJOR SUB-SECTORS AND THE MOST IMPORTANT FARMED SPECIES John Hambrey & Sue Evans

2 Aims and objectives to demonstrate quantitatively and qualitatively how the economic performance of existing aquaculture businesses in England, Wales and Northern Ireland (EWNI) may be improved, and capacity of the industry increased. present status of the industry distribution and contribution competitive strengths and weaknesses and market opportunity measures applied via government, market structure or other group that would lead to sectoral growth

3 Scope and detail Examined 16 subsectors Location, contribution, SWOT Main value chain elements Talked to Industry, academics, government On-line survey Explored government database and recent analysis Developed our own database Mapped the economic contribution of the industry Reviewed nature of value chain and likely multipliers

4 caveats Economics is an art not a science The figures ours and government should be taken with a pinch of salt. They are best informed guesses Use of multipliers - very blunt A more accurate analysis would depend on full, detailed and representative disclosure neither possible, nor necessary? The perspective of industry and other stakeholders is variable and sometimes elusive We can only represent part of the picture, and what we select for emphasis is influenced by our own history and prejudice We would have liked to spend far more time talking to industry and other stakeholders, but we had to bash away on dubious data.

5 Main findings

6 The sector Production trend: 30-20,000t - stable for 3 decades; decline to all 3 countries, shellfish, finfish Total direct value around 54m (farm gate sales) roughly equal, finfish/shellfish. About 50% of this value added less for fin-fish; more for shellfish Estimated 1,000 direct jobs mainly countryside and coastal Mainly small businesses serving local and recreational demand Often integrated with other recreational services Total contribution to the economy around 100m and 1,700 FTE jobs Plus household and countryside education, recreation and jobs

7 Regional and sub-sector economic contribution Most jobs in the SE and SW of England, followed by Northern England, Northern Ireland, Wales Most important sub sectors by region: SE England: oysters, coarse fish, ornamentals, trout SW England: trout, oysters, mussels, coarse fish N England: N Ireland: Wales: trout and salmon (fry); oyster trout, oyster, mussel mussel, trout, oyster

8 Distribution of aquaculture production

9 IS IT IMPORTANT? CAN IT BE MORE IMPORTANT? WHAT S HOLDING IT BACK? Very different types of business

10 Trout in decline Table competition (low cost producers; quality producers; constraints on scale); partial substitutes; flavour; retailer demands; labour/skills. Stocking: demand (culture, regulation); labour/skills Future? Smoked and other specialist gourmet products + marketing Ova become world leaders in supplying salmonid ova

11 Salmon and sea trout some limited opportunity North of England important for salmon parr/smolts Some modest expansion possible, but competition from Scotland and RAS Salmon/seatrout in Northern Ireland Climate change?? Some limited expansion based on niche branded product Coastal/offshore growout in England and Wales Likely to be uncompetitive

12 Carp and other coarse fish: Steady Important contribution across rural areas in the South in terms of modest employment but significant contribution to culture/recreation/landscape Seems to have a stronger enthusiast base than salmonid angling Future: limited growth opportunities but should be able to maintain significant contribution to rural south. Exports: could bring in more Dutch, German, French anglers?

13 Ornamentals: limited opportunities Potential for one or two more farms to supply cold water pond reared ornamentals Reduces disease import risks Potential for one or more large scale RAS to produce wider range of small tropical species Reduces disease import risks Limited by breeding difficulties High skills and dedication Competition from informal garage production? Substantial downstream benefits, but these realised also with imports

14 Oysters significant potential Long history, comparative advantage, biosecurity? Strong French and Asian markets and increasingly constrained overseas production Increasing UK market 3 hatcheries significant constraint. Need more to even supply and reduce risk Catch 22 need balanced supply and demand Cannot be solved by individuals needs industry or government or industry/government initiative

15 Mussels significant potential Strong national, European, global market Good growth conditions especially in S of England Shetland success with longer growout SSMG New Zealand example of scale and efficiency John Holmyard offshore large scale game changer? Very tough to get going compounding issues, multiplies risk and uncertainty; and greatly increases payback Site suitability/testing (settlement, growth, fouling) Planning/regulation

16 Scallops and clams Significant potential Comparative advantage, growth rates, biosecurity Strong demand (national, European, global) Similar constraints as for oysters: Seed supply balanced demand and supply Testing growout sites Security at growout sites

17 RAS specialist applications Well proven and well used for hatchery and early rearing where value/weight ratio is high Unlikely to be economic for on-growing finfish Poor experience to date, much government and private sector investment lost Unrealistic feasibility studies driven by technical specialists High cost; high risk; competition from countries with natural comparative advantage

18 Measures that might lead to sectoral growth

19 Bivalve shellfish probably greatest potential Weak enabling environment: Seed supply issues Slowed/constrained by planning/regulation Threatened by water quality (market price/category; closures) Some constraints attributable to - and might be eased by - government Joint initiative? Testing/piloting (modelling or practical?) Identification of favourable zones/sros Permissions/EIA etc done by MMO and/or IFCAs? And licenses offered? National seed strategy

20 Other Carp production/recreation: will probably take care of itself Ornamentals: a few good technical entrepreneurs Trout marketing new value added products? Retailers attitude to animal proteins Abstraction costs Triploid rule? General R&D Attitude of authorities Data collection and analysis (DCF now off?)

21 An impression Real frustration with government: Too much; too little; not fit for purpose Planning: to facilitate sustainable development, or constrain development Lack of contact and understanding of practicalities - reliance on reports like ours Questionnaires v discussions Real frustration with attitudes to development Preservationist v working landscape Lack of young, skilled enthusiasts

22 Thankyou Hambrey Consulting 2016

23 A lesson from Asia?