Potato sustainability and future research challenges

Transcription

1 Potato sustainability and future research challenges Dr Mike Storey Head of Research and Development

2 Two new PCL reports Building the evidence base Potatoes: a low impact crop for GB Climate change and potatoes

3 Building the evidence base Potatoes: a low impact crop for GB? This report draws on published international and UK research It present a consensus view of the impact of potatoes grown in GB 105 page report with 110 references cited see:

4 Sustainability has multiple criteria, so How can we compare products, farms, farming systems on the basis of sustainability? Social Environmental Economic

5 Life cycle assessment Carbon footprint 5 Eutrophication 4 3 Water footprint UK fresh UK stored Israeli fresh 2 Acidification 1 0 Water footprint, weighted Photochemical oxidation Agricultural land occupation Abiotic resource depletion Environmental Impact Quotient (EIQ)

6 What is a carbon footprint? The impact on global warming The life cycle greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions of a product The annual GHG emissions of an organisation Usually expressed in units of carbon dioxide equivalent (CO 2 e) Includes effects of other gases (e.g. methane, nitrous oxide)

7 Carbon footprints of producing a range of food commodities in the UK. Sheep and goat meat Beef Fish Pig meat Tomatoes Cucumbers and gherkins Turkey meat Chicken meat Rapeseed and mustard seed Cauliflowers and broccoli Asparagus Milk, whole, fresh Lettuce and chicory Strawberries Raspberries and other berries Wheat Milling Peas, dry Rye Oats Onions (inc. shallots) Carrots and turnips Plums and sloes Pears and quinces Dates Apples Peas, green Potatoes Cabbages, other brassicas Beef Milk Wheat Potato Carbon footprint (kg CO 2 /t) Audsley et al., 2009

8 Potato Carbon footprints (kg CO 2 e/t) Type of crop Pre-pack Processing Organic pre-pack UK maincrop fresh UK maincrop stored Israeli maincrop fresh Conventional Organic UK Maincrop (fresh) UK Maincrop (stored) Israel Maincrop UK earlies Israel earlies GHG Emissions (kg CO 2 e/t) Source (Defra code) FO0404 FO0404 FO0404 FO0412 FO0412 FO0412 IS0205 IS0205 FO0103 FO0103 FO0103 FO0103 FO0103

9 An example carbon footprint for processing potato production Soil emissions 25% Transport 5% Fertilisers 30% The energy component includes diesel used in the field and electricity for storage. Energy (field and store) 29% Pesticides 2% Seed 9% based on data from Defra FO0404

10 Improving efficiency of N use in potato 250 k g /h a n it r o g e n Nitrogen use on maincrop potatoes grown in GB between 1990 and Maincrop potatoes Source: BSFP

11 Improved yield Soil emissions 25% Transport 5% Fertilisers 30% Soil emissions 25% Transport 5% Fertilisers 30% Energy (field and store) 29% Pesticides 2% Seed 9% Best practice for: Yield, Varieties, Fertiliser, Water, Energy, Waste = Energy (field and store) 29% Carbon footprint becomes smaller per tonne Pesticides 2% Seed 9%

12 Strawberries (2006) Onions (2007) Ware potatoes (2008) Apples (2008) Brussels sprouts (2007) Parsnips (2007) Wheat (2008) Winter barley (2008) Oilseed rape (2008) Spring barley (2008) Grassland (2009) Pesticide average inputs per crop in GB (kg active substance applied per crop) Herbicides Fungicides Insecticides Growth regulators Molluscicides Soil sterilants CRD Pesticides Usage Survey 2008 kg active substance applied per hectare

13 Potato crops use land efficiently Potatoes Carrots Wheat Rice (paddy) Land required (ha/t) Potatoes Carrots Wheat Rice (paddy) Land required (ha/mj)

14 New PCL R&D projects for Storage Pest & Disease Agronomy Managing cultivations and cover crops Soil structure and workability Late season water management Seed rate recommendations Haulm destruction and blackleg Common scab control Dickeya survey in E&W Mineral oils for virus control Independent variety trials Warmer cold storage Seed store management Blackheart in packing potatoes CIPC & Ethylene ADAS / SAC CUF CUF CUF SAC / Scottish Agronomy CUF / FERA FERA Scottish Agronomy / NIAB SASA / SAC / JHI Sutton Bridge (SBCSR) SBCSR / CUF / FERA SBCSR / Cranfield SBCSR

15 Crop water requirements and virtual water contents of primary products in the UK Crop Wheat Barley Potatoes Sugar beet Vegetables Apples Crop water requirement (mm/crop period) Virtual water content (m 3 /tonne) Chapagain & Hoekstra, 2004

16 Comparison with other countries United Kingdom Israel France Netherlands Germany Belgium Egypt Spain Ireland Cyprus Italy Global average Virtual water content of potatoes (m 3 /tonne) Water scarcity (%) NA NA Chapagain and Hoekstra, 2004

17 Sustainability Irrigation requirements 60 % o f to ta l water u sag e Early potatoes (harvested before 31 July) Maincrop potatoes (harvested after 31 July) Sugar beet Vegetables Small fruit (soft fruit) Orchard fruit Grass Cereals Other outdoor crops and trees Year

18 Percentage of total irrigated area and irrigation water use in England by crop Irrigated area (%) Water use (%) Early potatoes Maincrop potatoes Sugar beet Vegetables Small fruit (soft fruit) Orchard fruit Grass Cereals Other outdoor crops & trees Weatherhead 2007

19 Annual water use - EA regions in England (M m 3 a -1 ). The proportion of the total contributed by the three largest sector categories of field irrigation, all livestock and glasshouse and nursery crops, are shown. Water usage (Mm 3 a -1 ) All livestock Glasshouse and Nursery crops North East North West Midlands Anglian Thames Southern South West Irrigation of field crops King et al, 2006

20 Climate change impacts on potato production: Industry options and responses This R&D project assesses the impact of Climate Change scenarios on Potato yield and water use Impacts on land suitability and management Adaptation options for dealing with greater climate uncertainty

21 SUBSTOR-Potato model Intercepted Radiation Variety CO2 Conversion X efficiency = Dry matter production Models crop yield to 2050 to take account of changing temperature, rainfall and CO 2 levels Leaf Area Incoming Radiation Temperature Water Nutrients

22 Predicted changes in rainfall (NIAB, 2050s) L 2050H 40 Precipitation anomaly (%) Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

23 SUBSTOR-Potato simulated yield (t ha -1 ) Model calibration and application CUF Buxton Woodbridge Spalding Future potential yield is expected to increase by 13-16% Marginal increase of farm yields (3-6%) Future irrigation needs will increase by 14-30% to maintain the same level of production Observed yield (t ha -1 )

24 Projected future changes in annual irrigation needs 1. Future average year more like a current dry year 2. Irrigation schemes could fail to meet future peak irrigation demand in 50% of years prepack Maris Piper

25 Current and future land suitability 85% of irrigated land in East & Central England remains suitable for potato production (irrigated) Baseline 2050H

26 Adaptation - increased use of reservoirs Rapid increase in on-farm reservoirs during the 90 s and early 00 s in response to droughts and licence restrictions Government see reservoirs as the key solution to agricultural water needs but winter abstraction not always available 42% of holdings now have reservoirs providing 30% of water used in 2005 ADAS

27 Irrigation application equipment

28 How do these findings fit with industry R&D priorities and business challenges? Have Your Say Survey 2011 on Research and Development

29 Who you were 237 respondents in total Area Wales 2.1% DK/NA 1.3% Scotland 24.1% England 72.6% Main role Misc 7.2% Seed and export 5.9% R&D 5.1% Packer 5.5% Processor 4.6% Agronomist/ advisor 22.8% Growers 48.9% Total growing area of potatoes Represented = 16,500ha Total area represented by agronomists/advisors = 63,000ha

30 Your R&D priorities for your business Top 5 research areas most relevant to your business: In rank order of endorsement 1. Potato Cyst Nematode (PCN) 2. Crop nutrition 3. Blackleg and soft rots (inc Dickeya) 4. Water use 5. Common scab

31 Challenges/Concerns for Your Business over the Next 5 Years Top 3 quoted categories: Economics of business (47.3%). e.g. input costs, market price, maintaining profitability Pests and Diseases (26.6%). e.g. PCN, blackleg Water (20.3%). e.g. water availability, water usage

32 Sustainability: carbon and water footprints and crop protection challenges Demand and Competitiveness will continue to drive industry R&D agenda Sustainability measures often relate to production and business efficiency Improve nutrient use (largest component of CF) Link to better soil management and efficiency of water use Climate change is real but will have a limited effect on land suitability However the industry needs to implement adaptation measures to protect water availability and improve use Crop protection challenges: PCN, blackleg & blight -need continued availability of PPP s and integration of control measures Improve exploitation of our potato genetic resources

33 Acknowledgements Sustainable potato production Simon Groves & Jeremy Wiltshire Climate change and potatoes Jerry Knox, Andre Daccache & Keith Weatherhead Mark Stalham Have Your Say on R&D Alice Sin