World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts. May 9, 2014

Transcription

1 World Agricultural Outlook Board Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee Forecasts

2 World Wheat Production Country or Region Million Tons 2014/15 World United States Foreign Argentina Canada Australia European Union Russia Ukraine Kazakhstan China India

3 TURKEY SYRIA IRAN IRAQ MIDDLE EAST Apr 2014 Winter Grains Crop Situation TURKEY SYRIA IRAN IRAQ NDVI Anomaly above average below MODIS satellite NASA GSFC

4 MODIS Aqua Satellite Composite NDVI Anomaly Image Comparison to mean: 04/23-04/ Sweden Denmark Ireland United Kingdom Poland Germany Czech Slovakia Austria France Hungary Romania Croatia Serbia Italy Bulgaria 4/23 4/ Spain Greece 4

5 World Wheat Supply and Use Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks

6 U.S. Wheat Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Food use Seed Feed and residual Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels ,130 1, ,023 2, ,254 1,216 1, ,439 2, Dollars per bushel /

7 World Rice Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Brazil Egypt Bangladesh Cambodia China India Indonesia Japan Sri Lanka Pakistan Philippines Thailand Vietnam

8 World Rice Supply and Use Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total use Trade Ending Stocks

9 U.S. Rice Supply and Demand Rough Equivalent of Rough and Milled Rice 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price ,694 7,468 Million cwt Dollars per cwt 15.80/ /

10 World Corn Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Mexico Canada European Union FSU-12 Ukraine Russia South Africa China India

11 Ukraine: Estimated Corn Area and Abandonment 6,000 5,000 Abandonment is at nearly 7 percent, twice the 5-year average. KHa 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 Area Harv Abandoned Source: State Statistical Committee

12 Ukraine Corn Planting Progress 6.0 Million hectares Corn planting was 79% complete by May Apr 24 May Source: MinAg May May May May 29 June

13 Ukraine: Seed-Corn Imports and Corn Yield Yield (Tons per hectare) Seed imports (1,000 tons) 50 GTIS data are available only through January. Louis-Dreyfus analyst reports that corn-hybrid seed imports were up 50 percent at the end of February. An d 25 to 50 percent of total corn area is planted with hybrid seed Through Jan After Jan Yield Sources: GTIS (seed imports); USDA (yield)

14 Ukraine Currency Exchange Rate: UAH to USD 14 According to chief APK-Inform analyst, the decrease and fluctuation of the value of the UAH in 2009 had an unfavorable impact on spring-crop yields in Ukraine Jan 14 Jan 13 Jan 12 Jan 11 Jan 10 Jan 09 Jan 08 0 Jan 07 UAH/USD 10

15 A 40-percent drop in the value of the UAH has increased prices for fuel, fertilizer, and chemicals. Producers will compensate by: using cheaper materials; purchasing untreated seed and treating it themselves; focusing on fields with higher yield potential; consolidating field operations. Weather remains the top yield determinant.

16 World Corn Supply and Use Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Feed use Total use Trade Ending Stocks , ,

17 U.S. Corn Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Feed and residual Food, seed, and industrial Ethanol Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels 821 1,146 13,925 13, ,781 15,111 5,300 5,250 6,435 6,435 5,050 5,050 11,735 11,685 1,900 1,700 13,635 13,385 1,146 1, Dollars per bushel 4.50/ /

18 Corn Yield Yield = F (mid-may planting, July temperatures and precipitation, and June precipitation if extremely dry) 8-State Corn Belt area (IL, IN, IA, MN, MO, NE, SD, OH) States normally account for about 75 percent of production Source: Westcott and Jewison, Weather Effects on Expected Corn and Soybean Yields, USDA-ERS, Feed Outlook No. (FDS-13G-01), July July temperature and precipitation assumed at the means 8-state planting progress as of mid-may Ag Outlook Forum trend of assumed normal mid-may planting progress May 15, 2014, unknown until the May 19th Crop Progress report May 4th progress at 29.1 percent for 8-state region, well ahead of last year at this time, but behind normal. 18

19 Corn Planting Progress Avg / /6 4/13 4/20 4/27 5/4 5/11 5/18 5/25 6/1 Comparable weeks based on NASS reporting week Source: NASS, Quick Stats 2.0

20 Corn Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected bu/acre Ag Outlook Forum: May WASDE: Actual Yield 160 Weather-Adjusted Trend 150 May WASDE Projection

21 World Soybean Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Tons World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Paraguay Ukraine India China

22 U.S. Soybean Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (bushels per acre) Beginning stocks Production Imports Total supply Crush Seed and residual Domestic use Exports Total use Ending stocks Stocks to use ratio Average market price Million bushels ,289 3, ,519 3,780 1,695 1, ,790 1,825 1,600 1,625 3,390 3, Dollars per bushel /

23 Soybean Weather-Adjusted Trend Yield vs. Actual and Projected bu/acre Actual Yield Weather-Adjusted Trend May WASDE Projection 2014 Ag Outlook Forum: May WASDE:

24 World Cotton Production Country or Region 2014/15 Million Bales World United States Foreign Argentina Brazil Turkey Syria Australia China India Pakistan Uzbekistan African Franc Zone

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26 NSW/QLD Border Region Cumulative Precipitation May 1 April 30 of Normal Rainfall 2011/12 = 150% 2012/13 = 97% = 73%

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28 How does El Nino Impact Australian Cotton? El Nino Episodes (remember, this is defined by seasurface temps!) 2002/03 El Nino Onset (when did the seasurface temp anomalies appear?) May (normal onset) Negative SOI (how did the atmosphere respond?) 2006/07 Jul (normal onset) Sep (late onset) (quickly prior to planting) (more slowly during growing season) Jul (normal onset) Below normal 5 Near to above normal 33 Below normal 23 Near to above normal 15 (1,000 ha) Jul Oct (quickly prior to planting) Dec Jan 2009/10 Dryland Area Jun Oct Dec Apr 2004/05 Growing season rainfall (more slowly during growing season) Much too early to determine El Nino s impact on production but the perceived threat may drive acreage.

29 World Cotton Supply and Use Country or Region 2014/15 Million Bales Beginning stocks Production Total Supply Total Use Trade Ending Stocks Addendum: China Ending Stocks

30 U.S. Cotton Supply and Demand 2014/15 Planted area (million acres) Harvested area (million acres) Yield (pounds per acre) Beginning stocks Imports Production Total supply Mill use Exports Total use Unaccounted Ending stocks Stocks/use Average market price Million bales Cents per pound /

31 Three Three--Year Running Annual Precipitation Totals, Lubbock, TX Driest 3-Year Periods Wettest 3-Year Periods

32 Lubbock Texas 3-Year Rainfall totals (inches) 45 3-Year Average: Month Totals

33 Cotton Abandonment Rates May 2014 WASDE Avg. May Estimate 70 percent abandoned SE Delta SW Far West US

34 U.S. Cotton Yield/Harvested Acre and May 2014 Projection lbs./harvested./harvested acre Projected yield = 824 lbs Crop year

35 Mexico Sugar Supply and Demand 2014/15 Thousand MT, raw value Beginning stocks Production Imports Total Supply Domestic use Exports Total Use Ending stocks 1,460 6, ,036 4,690 2,399 7, , ,673 4,690 2,036 6,

36 U.S. Sugar Supply and Demand 2014/15 1,000 short tons, raw value Beginning Stocks Production Beets Cane Imports TRQ Re-export Mexico High-tier Total Supply Exports Domestic deliveries Total use Ending stocks 2,158 8,480 4,800 3,680 3,334 1, , , ,051 12,376 1,596 1,596 8,495 4,750 3,745 3,093 1, , , ,835 12,085 1, Stocks/use ratio

37 U.S. Meat Production and Prices Production Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat Prices Steers Hogs Broilers Turkey Billion pounds Dollars/cwt Cents/lb

38 U.S. Meat Trade Million Pounds 2014 Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat Beef 2015 Exports 2,508 2,425 4,850 5,035 7,531 7, ,714 15,969 Imports 2,396 2,

39 U.S. Milk Supply and Demand Production Imports Commercial use Exports Billion pounds Dollars/cwt Class prices Class III Class IV All milk / Prices are mid-point of published s; milk of average fat test.

40 U.S. Dairy Product Prices Product prices Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Class prices Class III Class IV All milk Dollars/pound Dollars/cwt

41 U.S. Production Summary 2014/15 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 2, , ,289 19,745 40, ,480 1, , ,635 19,810 40, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total Meat

42 Domestic Demand Summary 2014/15 Crops and Products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Oats (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) Sugar (Thousand s.t., raw value) 1, , ,790 18,450 29, ,051 1, , ,825 18,100 29, , Milk (Billion lbs) Meat (Billion lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Total meat

43 U.S. Export Summary 2014/15 Crops and products Wheat (Million bu) Rice (Million cwt) Corn (Million bu) Sorghum (Million bu) Barley (Million bu) Soybeans (Million bu) Soybean oil (Million lbs) Soybean meal (Thousand s.t.) Cotton (Million bales) 1, , ,600 1,650 11, , ,625 1,700 11, Meat (Million lbs) Beef Pork Broilers Turkey Mature Chickens Total meat 2,508 4,850 7, ,714 2,425 5,035 7, ,

44 Price Summary 2014/15 Crops and products Wheat ($/bu) Rice ($/cwt) Corn ($/bu) Soybeans ($/bu) Soybean oil ( /lb) Soybean meal ($/s.t.) Cotton ( /lb) Livestock Steers ($/cwt) Hogs ($/cwt) Broilers ( /lb) Turkeys ( /lb) Dairy products Cheese Butter Nonfat dry milk Dry whey Milk classes Class III ($/cwt) Class IV ($/cwt) All milk ($/cwt)