Drought Activities at JRC - Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory

Transcription

1 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Drought Activities at JRC - Development of a prototype for the European Drought Observatory IES - Institute for Environment and Sustainability Ispra - Italy Stefan Niemeyer

2 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September What is the Joint Research Centre? The JRC is a Directorate General of the European Commission European Commission 25 Commissioners CCR DG RECHERCHE DG BUDGET DG AGRICULTURE DG Mr Janez POTOČNIK European Commissioner for Research DG RESEARCH DG JRC DG ENVIRONMENT OTHER DGs

3 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September What is the Joint Research Centre? European Commission

4 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September The Institute for Environment and Sustainability a Research Based Policy Support Provider

5 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September IES Mission Statement The mission of the Institute for Environment and Sustainability is to provide scientifictechnical support to the European Union s Policies for the protection and sustainable development of the European and global environment.

6 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Organisational Chart IES 2008 Director Leen HORDIJK Task Force Environment and Health Peter PÄRT H00 Office of the Director Pamela KENNEDY H01 Management Support Unit Neil HUBBARD Total staff: 458 H02 Climate Change Unit Frank RAES H03 Global Environment Monitoring Unit Alan BELWARD H04 Transport and Air Quality Unit Alois KRASENBRINK (acting) H05 Rural, Water and Ecosystem Resources Unit Giovanni BIDOGLIO H06 Spatial Data Infrastructures Unit Alessandro ANNONI H07 Land Management and Natural Hazards Unit Guido SCHMUCK H08 Renewable Energies Unit Heinz OSSENBRINK

7 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Technical Infrastructures for Environmental Research Vehicle Emission Laboratories (VELA 1-7) European Reference Laboratory for Air Pollution (ERLAP) High Performance Analytical Laboratories, incl. 3 Mobile Labs EMEP/GAW Super Site (Climate Monitoring) at the JRC Ispra Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurement Towers San Rossore and Parco del Ticino Marine measurement stations in the Adriatic and Baltic Sea European Solar Testing Installation (ESTI)

8 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Key Information Systems and Databases Technical Secretariat of INSPIRE / European Geoportal Water Information System for Europe (WISE) European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) European Flood Alert System (EFAS) European Reference System for Renewable Energies WMO World Data Centre for Aerosols Radioactivity Environmental Monitoring Database (REM) European Soil Database Global Land Cover 2000 Database

9 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Broad Customer Base DG Environment DG Agriculture and Rural Development DG Transport and Energy DG External Relations, DG Development, DG EuropeAid DG Regional Policy DG Eurostat DG Research DG Enterprise and Industry DG Health and Consumer Protection European Environment Agency UN Organizations (UNEP, WMO, etc.)

10 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Land Management & Natural Hazards Unit Core task Scientific support for EU policies regarding Sustainable use of the EU s land Preservation of the quality of soils Protection of forests Floods, droughts, and forest fires - alerts and impacts. Activities European Flood Alert and Forest Monitoring System Monitoring and land use changes The European Soil Reference System European drought detection, monitoring, and forecasting Guido Schmuck Special Infrastructures European Flood Alert System (EFAS) European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) European Drought Observatory (EDO)

11 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Drought History: First Activities in Expert Meeting Strategy, Book Publication Indicators (SPI, VIs,..) Energy Balance Modelling in the Mediterranean EF index (evaporative fraction) Resuming activities since 2005 under the NAHA Action Adapt Hydrological Model (Soil Water Balance) Soil Moisture Anomalies, Low Flows Additional Indicators (Meteo, RS, ) Establishing Contacts to WS&D CIS-WFD, ARID Cluster, MEDROPLAN, EDC,

12 Long-Term Objectives 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Drought Current set-up within DESERT Action: Development of a prototype of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) Contribution to the development of a global Early Warning System (EWS) for Desertification Development of a new World Atlas of Desertification Development of benchmarks and indicators for drought, water scarcity, and desertification Training (assessment, monitoring, mitigation drought and desertification) Networking, in-house research, policy advice

13 Activities in the Field of Droughts 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September /99: First Activity on Drought under Natural Hazards : Int. Workshop on Drought and Drought Mitigation in Europe 2004/05: Extending the European Flood Alert System towards Drought Monitoring (Pilot Study) since 2005: since 2007: since 2008: Member of the WFD Expert Group on Water Scarcity and Droughts First Drought Monitoring Products online (experimental) - Commission Communication on Water Scarcity & Droughts Institutional Action on Drought and Desertification (DESERT) - EDO Map Server on the internet - Follow-up Process of Communication on WS&D - Collaboration Agreement with EARS on DMCSEE-EDO 2009/10: XEROCHORE project on Drought Risk in Europe 2009/12: EUROGEOSS project on Data Exchange and Interoperability Development of Prototype of the European Drought Observatory (EDO) by 2012

14 Collaboration IES - EARS 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Parties: The Environmental Agency of the Republic of Slovenia (EARS) The Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) of the Joint Research Centre of the European Commission Official Collaboration Agreement signed in April 2008 Objective: to foster and mutually support the development of 1. Drought Management Centre of South East Europe (DMCSEE) in the frame of UNCCD and WMO 2. European Drought Observatory at JRC / European Commission Activities: scientific exchange and mutual support in R*D joint R&D activities, harmonisation of methodologies training and dissemination

15 Vision of a European Drought Observatory 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September WWW-based platform for drought monitoring, detection, and forecasting Multi-scale approach, integrating continental (EU), national (MS), regional, and river basin scale information Real-time monitoring and forecasting products for preparedness and early warning Commonly agreed set of products that are produced routinely on all spatial scales e.g. SPI, Q95, soil moisture anomaly, De-central data holding and management, but direct linking and exchange between different levels by common standards & formats Allows for seamless up- and downscaling, comparison, analysis, and validation Implementation based on INSPIRE principles A knowledge-based platform for discussion and exchange Regular feedback process between all levels for comparison and improvement Annual user community workshops

16 Drought Information in Europe Current State 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September European Level Activities: International Organisations (e.g. EC-JRC, ECMWF, ESA, ) no focus specifically on droughts various products (meteorological, hydrological, remote sensing, often experimental), but not specifically tailored to droughts National Activities: many players: competent Ministries, meteorological services, water agencies, research institutes, several information systems with information on water, landuse, agriculture, but few focused on droughts such as a National Drought Observatory Regional and local Activities: level of operational water management often high availability / detail of data stand-alone, usually not connected to outside area of interest (spatially, thematically)

17 Drought Information in Europe Example of Spain 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Joint Research Centre Drought Monitoring and Forecasting SPI monitoring fapar anomaly Soil Moisture anomaly and forecasting European Drought Observatory prototyp Ministerio de Medio Ambiente (MARM) Observatorio Nacional de la Sequía Sistema Integrado de Información del Agua (SIA) e.g. drought indicator, actual ET, Confederación Hidrográfica del Ebro SAIH Ebro, SITEbro Evolucción de la reserva hidraulica

18 A European Drought Observatory 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Platform for drought detection and monitoring, forecasting, and information exchange Commonly agreed products (e.g. drought indices) Joint comparison and analysis of information Mutual exchange of knowledge & methodologies Direct up- and downscaling Multi-scale approach, integrating Continental level MS level Regional level Respecting INSPIRE principles Subsidiarity principle European level information (+ platform) to be developed and managed at JRC National datasets managed at MS level Regional information processed by river basin / regional environmental authorities

19 A European Drought Observatory 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September EU / continental level: information produced at JRC European-level partner organisations (e.g. ECMWF, EUMETSAT) using European-wide / continental scale datasets providing continuous and consistent overview information large spatial scale allows for exploitation of long-term forecasts (up to months) users: Commission services, MS, and regional bodies, public National / inter-national level: at relevant & interested MS authorities, inter-national organisations (e.g. DMCSEE, Ministry for Environ., National Meteo. / Hydrol. Services, ) using national datasets, homogeneous for the entire territory linking and integrating national drought observatories (if existing) issuing national warnings, restrictions, national drought management plans Regional / local / river basin scale: run by regional environmental agencies, river basin authorities, using local / regional high resolution data and networks providing additional detailed local information (e.g. groundwater) regional / basin scale measures of water management, DMP within RBMP

20 Drought Water Scarcity 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Communication on Water Scarcity and Drought COM(2007)414final EDO JRC yearly water scarcity indicators yearly aggregated drought indicators WS&D-IS EEA Global Drought Monitoring System European Reporting and Information System (WISE) Network Network

21 EDO Internet Portal 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September

22 EDO - Current State 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September hydrological model: soil moisture estimates, anomalies, one-week forecast monthly SPI calculations for 1, 3, 6, 9, 12 month av. period testing: monthly forecasts of SPI-3 10-day fapar estimates and its anomaly anomalies from merged MERIS+SEAWiFS data 10-day NDWI estimates from MODIS (2006 onwards) NUTS-3 spatial averages for SPI, sm+anomaly timeseries per NUTS3 of SPI and sm+anomaly since 2000

23 EDO - Current State 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September twice daily simulation runs of LISFLOOD model on Linux cluster meteorological forecasts: 7-day from DWD, 14-day & monthly from ECMWF fapar produced at ESA/ESRIN, algorithm developed at JRC (Nadine Gobron) fapar anomalies produced at JRC (IDL, Linux cluster) NDWI produced at JRC (IDL, Linux cluster) under development: database for drought products averaging in NUTS regions, etc. timeseries generation on the fly data download

24 EDO Meteorological Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September monthly precipitation anomaly (SPI)

25 EDO Meteorological Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Regional SPI timeseries for multiple periods Time series are calculated for all NUTS3 regions.

26 EDO Meteorological Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Regional SPI Time-Series NUTS3 GR252 Arkadia central Peloponnesus, Greece

27 EDO Meteorological Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Regional SPI Time-Series NUTS3 GR111 Evros, north-east Greece

28 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Regional Soil Moisture Anomaly wetter normal drier JRC, 2008

29 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Current Soil Moisture Estimates wet normal dry JRC, 2008

30 EDO Soil Moisture Drought Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Current Soil Moisture Anomaly wetter normal drier JRC, 2008

31 EDO Remote Sensing Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September fapar Anomaly from ESA ENVISAT/MERIS

32 EDO Remote Sensing Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September fapar for Spain derived from ESA ENVISAT/MERIS June-August 2008 (10-day periods) fapar Anomaly compared to SPI-3 drought

33 Current State - JRC 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September MODIS NDWI 10-day composite

34 EDO Remote Sensing Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September NDWI(6) anomaly image of the south-east Europe drought event in summer 2007 derived from Terra/MODIS

35 EDO Remote Sensing Products 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Summer drought south-east Europe 2007 MODIS NDWI(6) anomaly images May-September 2007 experimental!

36 EDO Drought Forecast Products: Soil Moisture 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September one week forecast of soil moisture conditions in Europe / trend wetter normal drier JRC, 2008

37 EDO Drought Forecast Products: Soil Moisture 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September one week forecast of soil moisture anomaly in Europe JRC, 2008

38 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September SPI forecasting using ECMWF monthly forecasts 3 monthly SPI The precipitation forecast for the next month is added to the accumulated observed rainfall of the past two months, and then the 3-months forecasted SPI is calculated 2 - monthly cumulative precipitation map ECMWF monthly forecast average over 50 ensemble forecasts SPI calculation using historical time series forecasted 3 monthly SPI

39 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Comparison of observed and forecasted SPI (August - 05) observed 3 monthly SPI forecasted 3 monthly SPI

40 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Next step: Probabilistic SPI forecasting Ensemble predictions Observations very wet very dry

41 EDO Drought Forecast Products: SPI 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Forecasted Probability for SPI < month Probabilistic Forecast of SPI-3 January 2007 Observed SPI Probability that SPI-3 for the next month is severe dry or worse still experimental!

42 The Way Forward 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Portal for European Drought Observatory released in autumn 2008: System Development Start-up with the pilot version of EDO European overview level Stepwise integration of drought information from pilot MS Bottom-up approach, increasing level of complexity Research and Development Drought indices (development, testing, validation) Drought forecasting (monthly forecast products) Data exchange, standards and protocols (EUROGEOSS project) Networking EEA: exchange of data and indicators EU scientific community (e.g., XEROCHORE, EUROGEOSS, ) Global exchange and networking (e.g., US NDMC, UNCCD, GEO, SWALIM, ) Regular consultation with national and regional stakeholders

43 Future Development - JRC 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September add a hydrological drought index/indicator from EFAS / EU-FLOOD-GIS products improve, inter-compare, and verify drought products (validate?) develop integrated drought indices that combine single indices link to national and regional drought information interoperability arrangements EuroGEOSS as pathfinder project! support the development of regional and national DOs collaborate with DMCSEE on south-east Europe collaborate with drought research network around EDC collaborate with NDMC/NIDIS within GEO WP extend to larger European window (Africa?)

44 Vision of European Drought Observatory 1st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September Fast access through web portal - Seamless up- and downscaling - Comparison and analysis - New perspectives for R&D

45 1 st Joint EARS/IES International Drought Workshop, Ljubljana, September thank you!