Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities

Transcription

1 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities Detlef Müller-Mahn Dept. Of Geography Bonn Lecture Series The Agenda 2030 Dealing with Grand Challenges for Mankind Afar woman and her daughter, Ethiopia S.Rettberg

2 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities SDG 2: End hunger, achieve food security and improved nutrition and promote sustainable agriculture Afar woman and her daughter, Ethiopia S.Rettberg Why ending hunger is so hard C. Peter Timmer 2015: Food Security and Scarcity. Why ending hunger is so hard. U.Penn.Press.

3 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities Afar woman and her daughter, Ethiopia S.Rettberg 1. Geographies of hunger 2. The meaning of scarcity 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia 5. Conclusion: political economy of famine

4 1. Geographies of hunger Food scarcity: Undernourishment < 2100 cal. / day 800 Mill. affected by hunger (2016) 98 % in developing countries improvement: 200 Mill. less than 1990 but: statistical averages annual & seasonal variability spatial & social differentiation Africa lagging behind Example: Ethiopia

5 1. Geographies of hunger Ethiopia: geographical differentiation of drought & food insecurity 2016 Afar Regional State rainfall anomaly (% average) Mar-Sep 2015 Acute food insecurity Jan Mar 2016 FEWS NET 12/ million people in need of emergency food assistance in

6 1. Geographies of hunger Managing a food crisis Government & aid organizations: distributing food assistance People: selling food assistance Paradox? Why are people selling their food assistance during the emergency? What does scarcity mean for the local population? Ethiopia, Afar Region food assistance arriving at the store and being sold in the market

7 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities 1. Geographies of hunger 2. The meaning of scarcity 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia 5. The political economy of famine Afar woman and daughter, Ethiopia S.Rettberg

8 2. The meaning of scarcity Neo-Malthusianism and limits to growth (1) Malthus 1798 Malthusianism: Scarcity evolving out of a mismatch between exponential population growth and linear growth of food production Famine and war natural checks Historical consequences: Great Irish Famine : 1 Mill. Deaths famine - instrument of colonial control (India!) What Malthus did not take into account: Innovation, productivity increase, trade, aid

9 2. The meaning of scarcity Neo-Malthusianism and limits to growth (2) Meadows & Club of Rome 1972 (Neo-)Malthusianism Mismatch between finite resource availability and uncontrolled resource use environmental degradation Resource scarcity violent conflict Planetary boundaries Rockström 2009; Steffen et al 2015

10 2. The meaning of scarcity Neo-Malthusianism and limits to growth (3) Will environmental scarcity lead to climate / water wars?

11 2. The meaning of scarcity Neo-Malthusianism and limits to growth (4) Thomas Homer- Dixon 1999 Environmental Scarcity violent conflict Relationship becomes visible at 5 scales (local to global): 1. Local disputes over environmental degradation 2. Ethnic clashes (migration and social cleavages due to env. scarcity) 3. Civil strife caused by environmental scarcity, low economic productivity and precarious livelihoods 4. interstate scarcity wars (water) 5. Global North-South conflicts probable, but not relevant relevant and probable not probable How well does this view capture the causes of scarcity and conflict?

12 2. The meaning of scarcity External drivers of scarcity Low variance (slow changes) high variance (rapid changes) supply Seed technology Irrigation Total harvested area Climate change Knowledge, skills Weather Diseases Crop-specific harvested area Fuel costs Fertilizer costs demand Population growth Income growth wealth Dietary changes Exchange rates Speculation Biofuels Land grabs Government trade and policies After: Timmer, C.P. (2015): Food Security and Scarcity. Why ending hunger is so hard.

13 2. The meaning of scarcity Redefining scarcity Lyla Mehta 2010 Critique of Neo-Malthusianism environmental determinism naturalization of scarcity Scarcity Result of exclusion and unequal power relations that legitimize skewed access to and control over finite and limited resources 3 aspects of scarcity availability environment distribution, affordability market accessibility, entitlements power relations

14 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities 1. Geographies of hunger 2. The meaning of scarcity 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia 5. Conclusion: political economy of famine

15 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Available annual water quantity per capita (in 1000 m³) Egypt: m³ p.c m³ p.c.

16 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Irrigated area: 3,5 %

17 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Expansion of irrigated area by land reclamation

18 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Water distribution between users in Egypt Fixed share based on Nile water agreement 1959 old irrigation new irrigation urban Navigation and electricity

19 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Powerful farmers take what they can Organisation of irrigation system What happens when water quantity is reduced? Scarcity is transfered to powerless smallholders

20 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile Consequences: Ethiopian water developments will increase downstream scarcity Competitition for scarce resources will mainly affect smallholders

21 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities 1. Geographies of hunger 2. The meaning of scarcity 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia 5. Conclusion: political economy of famine

22 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia The Afar people: 1 million, mainly pastoralists

23 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia Horn of Africa: Regional food crisis and Complex Emergency

24 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia The Afar region: mostly dryland pastures Distribution of rainfall

25 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia Land losses due to violent conflicts with neighboring groups

26 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia Land losses due to expansion of irrigated farming and land grabs Irrigated farming export-oriented production

27 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia Causes of resource scarcity and increased vulnerability of the Afar Land losses due to conflict and irrigated farming Insecurity of land rights Political marginalisation within national state Aggravated by drought and environ. degradation primarily social, economic & political causes

28 Water - Land - Food: The Making and Unmaking of Scarcities 1. Geographies of hunger 2. The meaning of scarcity 3. Water scarcity: Egypt and the Nile 4. Water land food nexus: Ethiopia 5. Conclusion: political economy of famine

29 5. Conclusion: Political economy of famine Famine High food price volatility increases food crises Prices for food commodities and oil (Welthungerhilfe 2011) Causes: Speculative trade in food commodities futures Expanding biofuel production Dietary changes Alex de Waal 1997: Famine Crimes. Politics & the Disaster Relief Industry in Africa

30 Food scarcity 5. Conclusion: Political economy of famine Why ending hunger is so hard Causes are not natural, but socially produced Ending hunger is not just a technical problem, but requires a focus on distribution, land rights and entitlements

31 References de Waal, A. 1997: Famine Crimes. Politics & the Disaster Relief Industry in Africa Mehta, Lyla 2010: Limits to Scarcity Müller-Mahn, D., Rettberg, S., G. G. Alemu 2010: Pathways and dead ends of pastoral development among the Afar and Karrayu in Ethiopia. In: European Journal of Development Research 22, (5), Müller-Mahn, D. 2006: Wasserkonflikte im Nahen Osten - eine Machtfrage. In: Geographische Rundschau 58, (2), Oakland Institute 2016: Miracle or mirage? Manufacturing hunger and poverty in Ethiopia. Rettberg, S. 2009: Das Risiko der Afar Existenzsicherung äthiopischer Nomaden im Kontext von Hungerkrisen, Konflikten und Entwicklungsinterventionen. Saarbrücken Rettberg, S. 2010: Contested narratives of pastoral vulnerability and risk in Ethiopia s Afar Region. Pastoralism Research, Policy and Practice 1 (2): C. Peter Timmer 2015: Food Security and Scarcity. Why ending hunger is so hard. U.Penn.Press.