Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat stress resilient maize for South Asia

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1 Climate change impacts and potential benefits of heat stress resilient maize for South Asia P.H. Zaidi, CIMMYT-Asia Maize Program ICRISAT campus, Hyderabad, India

2 South Asia is indeed the Hot-spot for Climate Change! Drought: >32 droughts in last 100 years 70% land drought prone; 16% flood prone and 8% to cyclones Frequent episodes of worst heat waves; e.g. in part of South Asia soaring Tmax past 50 C in Source: Erickson et al., 2011

3 What that means to crop production? If current trends persist until 2050, the yields of major crops in South Asia will decrease significantly : Maize (-17%), Wheat (-12%) and Rice (-10%) due to climate change-induced heat and water stress. Source: Building Climate Resilience in the Agriculture Sector of Asia and Pacific (IFPRI and ADB, 2009)

4 Maize mega-environment in South Asia 19% Irrigated Season-3 Jan/Feb May/June 7% Spring High-input environment but Heat stress-prone Season-2 Nov - April 12% Winter High-input/high yielding environment 9% Optimal moisture Good environment w/o any major stresses 81% Rainfed Season-1 June-Oct 18% Drought <500mm rainfall, drought (+/-heat) 16% Excess moisture >1500mm rainfall, excessmoisture/water-logging 38% Drought/Ex cess moisture Erratic distribution pattern of monsoon, prone to drought (+/-heat) and waterlogging within same crop cycle.

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6 Heat stress projection in South Asia and advantage of HT hybrids Increase in heat-stressed area (%) Current hybrids Impact of CC on maize yields by 2030 HT-hybrids Pre-monsoon Monsoon season Kindie et al (TAC, DOI /s ) Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA), Funded by USAID Feed-the-Future

7 Breeding heat stress-resilient maize through integration of novels tools and methods with proven rules of abiotic stress breeding Genome-wide association study (GWAS) Rapid-cycle genomic selection (RC-GS) High precision in phenotyping, with reasonably high throughput Root phenotyping (functional traits) Double haploid (DH) Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA), Funded by USAID Feed-the-Future

8 GWAS for Grain yield and secondary traits IDP844 SNPs and haplotypes discovered for GY and secondary traits under heat stress ZAP1 IDP1602 rop2 TLK2 esp5 rps6 lox7 Some of the identified MTAs fall within important known heat/stress responsive genes LOC : TPR domain-hsp like chaperones Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA), Funded by USAID Feed-the-Future

9 Lipidomics Lipidome studies indicated that: Grain yield and galactolipids profile had significant negative correlations, under heat stress. GWAS for lipidome profiles identified candidate genes (green lines) and QTLs (blue arrows) Greater membrane saturation contributes to heat tolerance through improved membrane stability Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA), Funded by USAID Feed-the-Future

10 Genomic regions identified & validated for grain yield and secondary traits under heat stress Chr per se GWAS_GY TC GWAS_ASI TC QTL_GY per se SFA_ASI per se SFA_TB Chr TC GWAS_GY TC GWAS_GY TC SFA_GY TC SFA_GY Chr TC GWAS_per se GWAS_TB TC GWAS_TC GWAS_GY TC SFA_GYper se SFA_GY per se SFAper se GWAS_TB per se SFA_LF TC QTL_GY per se SFA_LF TC SFA_GY Chr per se GWAS_GY per se GWAS_LF TC SFA_GY TC SFA_GY Chr per se GWper se GWAS_GY TC GWAS_GY TC GWAS_ASI per se SFAper se QTL_GY per se SFA_GY TC QTL_GY TC SFA_GY per se SFA_ASI Chr per se GWAS_GY per se GWAS_TB per se GWAS_LF per se QTL_GY TC QTL_GY per se SFA_GY TC SFA_GY Chr per se GWAS_GY per se GWAS_GY TC GWAS_GY per se QTL_GY per se QTL_GY per se SFA_GY per se SFA_LF per se SFA_ASI TC SFA_GY Chr per se GWAS_LF TC SFA_GY Chr per se GWAS_LF TC GWAS_GY per se QTL_LF per se SFA_LF Chr per se GWAS_TB TC QTL_GY Heat Tolerant Maize for South Asia (HTMA), Funded by USAID Feed-the-Future

11 Rapid-cycle genomic selection (RCGS) for heat tolerance using multi-parent synthetic populations (MPS)

12 Hybrids development & evaluation Year-1 Year-2 Winter-12 Spring-13 Rainy-13 Spring-14 Rainy-14 HT-line TC HT-TC evaluated under heat stress Seed increase of selected hybrids Stage-2 hybrid evaluation for heat tolerance Seed increase of top hybrids for On-farm trials HT and HTAM panel lines (except MMRI & Private sector) evaluation under heat stress D-II crossing Lines with good per se & cross performance L x T cross Lines with good per se performance Stage-1 hybrid evaluation for heat tolerance Screening for common diseases & Seed increase of selected hybrids for Stage-2 evaluation HTAM panel constitution HTAM panel TC HTAM Test-cross phenotyping for heat tolerance Screening for common diseases & Seed increase of selected hybrids for Stage-2 evaluation

13 Extensive heat stress phenotyping network in South Asia Different types of heat stress: High VPD sites (Tmax: 35 - >40 0 C; VPD: >5.0 kpa) Moderate VPD sites (Tmax: 35 - >40 0 C; VPD: kPa) Low VPD sites (Tmax: C; VPD: <3.0 kpa) Bhutan (5 sites) Baris al

14 No. of institutes/companies On-farm demonstration of 1 st batch of HT hybrids in Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, & Pakistan Hybrids with wider adaptation (Across agro-ecologies, target for National programs/mncs) Hybrids with reasonable adaptation (within specific agro-ecologies; target for MEs/SAUs) Hybrids with specific adaption/niche markets (within sub-agroecologies, target for SEs)

15 HT-maize hybrids licenced for deployment & scale-out Country Partners Type Bangladesh BARI NARS 4 Pakistan ACI Ltd SME 2 4 Supreme SME 2 Krishibid SME 1 Zamindara Seeds SME 3 Jullundar Seeds SME 2 1 Hisell Seeds SME 4 3 MMRI NARS 3 Nepal NMRP NARS 5 2 SEAN Seeds SME 1 India Ajeet Seeds SME 2 3 UAS-Raichur NARS 2 4 BAU, Sabor NARS 2 Kaveri Seeds SME 1 At High (>40 0 C) Temp. + High (>5kPa) VPD Susceptible check HT hybrid (CAH-153) * CIMMYT x Pioneer cross DuPont Pioneer MNC 3+2*

16 Beating the heat in South Asia New Heat Tolerant Maize

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18 HTMA Web-portal

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