The World in 2050 STRIVING FOR A MORE JUST, PROSPEROUS, AND HARMONIOUS GLOBAL COMMUNITY. Edited by HARINDER S. KOHLI

Transcription

1 The World in 2050 STRIVING FOR A MORE JUST, PROSPEROUS, AND HARMONIOUS GLOBAL COMMUNITY Edited by HARINDER S. KOHLI Emerging ^ Markets Forum OXFORD UNIVERSITY PRESS

2 Table of Contents xiii List of figures, boxes, and tables xix List of acronyms xxv Foreword xxix Acknowledgments xxxv Overview HarinderS. Kohli xxxv Historie context and transformation over the past 60 years xxxviii Drivers of future long-term economic growth xxxix The world in 2050: Alternate scenarios xliii Development is more than growth xliv Revamping global governance xliv A new leitmotif for sustaining a multipolar, multicultural, and interconnected world 1 Introduction and historical context Harinder S. Kohli 1 Introduction I Historical context 3 The big question Will convergence continue? 3 Structure of the book II Global megatrends HarinderS. Kohli Demographics: An aging population Urbanization: Toward a predominantly urbanized world International trade: An increasingly intertwined world Globalization of finance: Toward larger, more integrated financial markets Rise of a massive middle class: Toward societies driven by new values and aspirations Competition forfinite natural resources Climate change: The time to act is now...jointly Technological progress: Potential solutions to the world's evolving challenges Transformation of the global economy: Rise of the emerging economies Violent non-state actors: A changing global security landscape vii

3 Demographics and urbanization Gregory K. Ingram Introduction Major driver Growth in urban populations, 2010 to 2050 Major consequence Growth in extent of urbanized areas Urban growth and economic strategies Urban and metropolitan governance Flanning and directing urban development Public safety and security Infrastructure Investment Urban housing and the poor Environment, externalities, and climate change Technology and the city: Smart cities Urban finance Conclusion FUTURE OF THE GLOBAL MARKET 61 Reforming the international monetary system A sequenced agenda Michel Camdessus & Anoop Singh Introduction Liquidity An evolving global public good A sequenced reform agenda Overdue IMF reforms Toward a new Bretton Woods? Conclusion 73 Governance of the global economic, financial, and monetary system Jack Boorman The issues What role has poor governance played in the many economic and financial crises of recent years? The continuing shift in global economic power The need to adapt The "G" question Global governance and the IMF Other reforms of the IMF Concluding remarks 10! Emerging markets finance to 2050 Andrew Sheng Introduction Current status of global and EME finance Rethinking financial deepening International financial system Projections on financial deepening in Asia to 2050

4 ix 124 Issues in EME financial sector reform to Conclusion 133 Where will emerging markets stand in global trade? Pascal Lamy 133 Introduction 133 Shaping factors of emerging countries in global trade 153 Potential disruptions in the intensity of trade and new challenges for the emerging economies 163 Evolution of trade obstacles and comparative advantages in global trade 167 Conclusion FUTURE OF THE NATURAL WORLD, NATURAL RESOURCES, AND TECHNOLOGICAL SOLUTIONS 171 Emerging markets and climate change Protecting and enhancing prosperity Alexander Pfeiffer & Cameron Hepburn 171 Introduction 178 The scientific context 186 The low-carbon transition: Opportunities and threats 193 Political context 201 Conclusion 207 Crop yields and food security in an increasingly affluent world Marco Ferroni & Yuan Zhou 207 Introduction and overview 210 Global food demand to 2050 and required crop yield growth 218 Plant breeding for genetic yield gain 221 Crop management for yield growth and sustainable intensification 225 Summary and conclusion 231 Water A motor and a precondition for sustainable development in emerging and developing economies Gerard Payen 231 Introduction 231 Water-related challenges are growing in many parts of the world 234 Operating, maintaining, and developing water infrastructure 236 The political bottleneck 237 The 2030 political milestone 243 Potential technological landscape R.A. Mashelkar 243 Historical perspective 243 Predicting the future 244 The digital transformation of life and work 248 Technology-Ied transformation of physical world 252 Future energy

5 260 Future technologies for health services 264 Making Technology 2050 work for global good 270 Some final thoughts RISE OF EMERGING ECONOMIES AND IMPLICATIONS FOR GLOBAL GOVERNANCE 277 Alternative long-term scenarios C/aud/oLose^Ha/pau/^/berfoKo/?//' /4nneJam/son,/Uden LeC/a/%/evam#e, &Har/hderS. KoW; OJ cc O 277 Context and overview 278 The past sixty years: Drivers of transformation 290 Future sources of growth in Emerging and Developing Economies 293 Alternative scenarios of long-term Performance 294 Strong policy (optimistic) scenario 301 Emerging global economy: Concluding remarks 311 The State of global governance An assessment Montek Singh Ahluwalia 311 Introduction 312 Managing global financial interconnectivity 323 Managing trade interconnectivity 325 Managing the threat to climate change 328 A summary assessment SOCIAL AND POLITICAL CHALLENGES TO REALIZE A PROSPEROUS GLOBAL COMMUNITY BY 2050 AS WELL AS PHILOSOPHICAL AND MORAL UNDERPINNINGS FOR SOCIETAL AND GLOBAL WELL-BEING 335 The future of violent non-state actors Daniel Byman 335 Introduction 335 Some cautions about predictions 336 Global impact 336 Violent non-state actors: Thousands of years of history in a few short paragraphs 339 Trends and concerns about terrorism and substate violence today 341 The rise of Islamist terrorism in context 342 Anticipating future trends 344 Managing the threat 351 Eradicating poverty, reducing inequality, and promoting sustainable development Alejandro Toledo 351 Introduction 351 Vision for a shared society 352 Reducing inequality as an imperative for promoting sustainable development 354 Why do we care about inequality? 355 Where is Latin America in terms of inequality? 357 Why do we care about poverty? 358 What is poverty?

6 359 What are the levels of poverty in Latin America? 362 Who are the poor? Gender and ethnic disparities 363 Child poverty 363 Summing up xi 369 The ultimate objective of the development process-pursuit of material wealth versus societal well-being Yosuke Yasuda 369 Introduction 369 Does wealth conflict with well-being? 370 Macroeconomics of wealth and inequality 372 Equitable market design 375 Concluding remarks 375 Addendum by Hiroshi Watanabe co E Interlude: Changing lifestyles to sustain prosperity for all o Ramgopal Agarwala & Harinder S. Kohli ^ 378 Why are changing lifestyles essential for shared prosperity? 378 Contours of a leapfrog strategy to sustainable prosperity for all Global partnership A new leitmotif for an interconnected world Vittorio Hösle & Horst Köhler 385 Moral arguments for interconnectedness 386 Solutions for sustainability 389 Prevention of Interstate violence 390 A better intercultural agreement 397 Epilogue: Pacing global challenges between now and 2050 Michel Camdessus & Harinder S. Kohli 397 Will global growth be sufficient? 399 Toward the elusive long-term sustainability of human development 407 Annex 1: Classification of countries into nine groups 411 Annex 2: Protection methodology 415 Annex 3: Additional regional and country-level results 425 Annex 4: Assessment of long-term fiscal and current account sustainability 435 References 463 About the editor and contributors 471 Index 475 Photo credits