FEEDING THE WORLD IN 2050: THE PRODUCTION, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND TRADE CHALLENGES.

Transcription

1 FEEDING THE WORLD IN 2050: THE PRODUCTION, ENVIRONMENTAL, AND TRADE CHALLENGES. PRESENTED AT THE UNIVERSITY OF PRETORIA, SA NOVEMBER 11, 2013 By Alex F. McCalla, Professor Emeritus, University of California, Davis

2 2 Feeding A Hungry World -What is The Global Challenge? World Population Most Recently Has Been Projected to Reach 9.6 Billion People in This is 2.4 Billion More Than We Have Now. It is more than Triple the Number of People We Had in 1960 (3 Billion),Tripling will have occurred in Just 90 Years. The Vast Majority of These People Will Live In Now Developing Countries, More Than Half of Them in Huge Mega Cities, Cereals Will Still Provide the Majority of Their Caloric Intake. The big three Rice, Wheat and Maize >50% That s the Short Version of the Challenge.

3 3 How Easy/Difficult Will It Be?? Lets Start by Looking at the Time-line of How We Got to Here and 7+ Billion People? and How We Have Fed Them to Date? Then We Can Ask --How Will We Feed the Next 2+ Billion? What will be the Science, Production, Distribution, Policy and Trade Issues? Then We Can Ask What Are the Challenges for Africa and the World? That s My Road Map & I Will Try To Stick With It.

4 4 World Population Growth-Here s Where We Have Been and Where We Are Going

5 5 Past Population Growth & How Were They Fed? It took from the origins of human life to circa 1825 to add the first billion; more than 10,000 years after the beginnings of sedentary agriculture; The second billion arrived in 102 years (1927) Virtually all of the increased food production needed to feed the first 2 billion came from expanded area under production. Evans, Feeding the Ten Billion (1998). The third billion arrived in just 33 years as the worlds population reached 3 Billion in Just 53 years ago.

6 6 Past Population Growth & How Were They Fed? -2 Despite pockets of scientific agriculture in Western Europe, China and Japan in the 19th century, the third billion also was primarily fed by area expansion: a 40% increase in area; and the mechanical revolution which freed up 130 million hectares -- previously producing fuel for horses -- for food grain production. But something had to change- we were running out of new land. Therefore it is only after 1960 that increasing yields per hectare became the major source of increases in food supply.

7 Past Population Growth & How Were 7 They Fed? -3 And Change Came Just in Time!! Adding the fourth billion took just 15 years ( ), the fifth billion arrived in 11 years ( ), And the sixth in 13 years ( ). World Population Had Doubled in Just 39 years from 3 to 6 Billion.

8 8 Past Population Growth & How Were They Fed? -4 The vast majority of the increase in food production needed to feed this doubling of world population in less than 40 years ( ) came from increased productivity. Modest increases in area since 1975 e.g. Brazil, SS Africa and Thailand were more than offset by loses of productive land to other uses, and to soil degradation. Clearly the application of science to agriculture had research roots dating back at least to von Liebig in the mid 19th century, But it was increasing investments in applied research in developed countries in the first half of the 20th century that led to the genetic and chemical revolution that drove agriculture in the second half of the 20 th century.

9 9 A Remarkable Record- Humans on Av. Better Fed in 2000 Than in 1960 It was truly an incredible accomplishment. Cereal Yields More than Doubled helped by quantum jumps in wheat and rice yields from semi-dwarfs bred by CIMMYT and IRRI GLOBALLY IMPORTANT CEREALS -YIELDS to YIELDS Metric Tons Per Hectare CROP: WHEAT CORN RICE YEARS: INCREASE 2.5 X 2.9 X 2.3 X

10 10 Now A Look At Future Challenges- World Population To 2050 World Population reached 7 Billion October 31, 2011 (and is currently 7.2 Billion). Just 12 years after reaching 6 Bil; Using UN Medium Projections it is Projected to reach over 8 Billion in (in 14 years); and 9.6 Billion by (And is projected to continue growing, at a slowing rate, to just under 11 Billion in 2100 driven by African Pop. Growth - increasing from 2.4 Bil to 4.2 Bil.). World Population will have tripled in 90 years 1/3 rd of the World s Pop will be in 2 Countries- India Billion China Billion

11 Population Growth Rates to

12 THE TOP World 2,519,495 6,056,715 7,207,361 7,936,741 9,322,251 India 357,561 1,008,937 1,230,484 1,351,801 1,572,055 China 554,760 1,275,133 1,410,217 1,470,787 1,462,058 United States of America 157, , , , ,063 Pakistan 39, , , , ,170 Indonesia 79, , , , ,335 Nigeria 29, , , , ,788 Bangladesh 41, , , , ,432 Brazil 53, , , , ,244 Dem. Rep. of the Congo 12,184 50,948 84, , ,527 Ethiopia 18,434 62,908 89, , ,452

13 World map weighted by population in 1960 and by estimated population in

14 14 FAO Report -How to Feed the World in 2050? (dated Oct 2009) By 2050 the world s population will reach 9.1 billion, 34 percent higher than today. Nearly all of this population increase will occur in developing countries. Urbanization will continue at an accelerated pace, and about 70 percent of the world s population will be urban (compared to 49 percent today). Income levels will be many multiples of what they are now. to feed this larger, more urban and richer population, food production (net of food used for biofuels) must increase by 70 percent. Annual cereal production will need to rise to about 3 billion tonnes from 2.1 billion today; Annual meat production will need to rise by over 200 million tonnes to reach 470 million tonnes. Page 2

15 $100 $90 $80 Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with projections $70 $60 $50 $40 $30 $20 $10 $ $ trillions World Developed economies less USA United States Developing economies 15

16 World map weighted by GDP in 1960 and by estimated GDP in

17 But It is More Than Just Numbers & Income - 17 Also Poverty & Under-nutrition World Bank says Billion people live on < $1.25/day, while down from Bil. in 1990, it still represents 22.4% of world population. Forecast to be still over 1 Billion in Billion live on < $US2.00/ day,a number that is quite steady. # living with chronic hunger 925 million in 2010,-varies with food prices below 800 million in mid 90 s to high of 1,025 million in Given food prices still remain high, probably the number is still well above 1Billion

18 Food Prices Still High FAO 8/8/13

19 19 FAO Report -How to Feed the World in 2050? - 2 The report argues that >80% of the increase must come from improved yields as possible expansion of area is limited and potentially available land is found in only a few countries. This is a larger challenge in the face of recent declines in productivity growth rates. It will have to be produced with less water; An increasing number of countries are reaching alarming levels of water scarcity and 1.4 billion people live in areas with sinking ground water levels. Water scarcity is particularly pronounced in the Near East/North Africa and the South Asia regions and is likely to worsen as a result of climate change in many regions. Ibid P. 9

20 20 FAO Report -How to Feed the World in 2050? - 3 Major threats identified are: competing demands for land for energy production; climate change, which will most negatively impact those closest to the equator; the loss of biodiversity. What will be required are very large increases in investment in international agricultural development and agricultural R&D to develop new varieties/hybrids and improved crop and livestock production systems. Even under optimistic assumptions about improved production in developing countries, their food imports will more than double.

21 The Challenges in Summary 21 To feed yet another 2+ Billion people In a world that is richer and more urban; On basically the land area we now have, and with less water; Increase food production 70%;--grain production by 43%, and meat production by 75%; (these 2009 FAO estimates are now probably to small). Made more difficult by: With competing demands for bio energy; The negative impacts of climate change;

22 Immense Implications: 22 The increases are all going to have to come from productivity improvement;-not just in terms of land productivity but also water productivity; But productivity growth is slowing And input prices have risen and there are additional nonfood demands for Agricultural Production e.g. Biofuels The increases are going to have to come from basically the current spatial distribution of production; Which means trade in agricultural and food products must expand more rapidly than demand;-trade liberalization becomes central; And in world markets likely to be more unstable. Lets look at a few slides that illustrate these implications

23 Productivity Growth is Declining 23

24 24 Yield Growth Rates Decline (percent per year) Maize 2.33 Wheat 2.73 Rice (paddy) Source: Pardey, Alston and Chan-Kang, 2012

25 World Crop Yields Annual Average Growth Rate (FAO) (FAO) (IMPACT Baseline) 3.5 Percent Growth Rater per Year Maize Rice Soybeans Wheat Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

26 DAP Prices July 2003 July

27 Development of the World Ethanol 27 Market (OECD/FAO Outlook 2012) World ethanol production World ethanol trade Bnl

28 Development of the World Biodiesel 28 Market (OECD/FAO Outlook 2012) Bnl World biodiesel production World biodiesel trade

29 Agricultural Trade Issues: 29 Agricultural trade is important but growing less rapidly than total trade; Rich Countries are major exporters- developing countries major importers; Trade is a relatively small share of total food grain consumption; Wheat < 18% of Consumption is imported; Corn 12.4 % Rice 6.5 % To Meet Future Needs From Current Locations of Production, Trade Would Have to Grow Rapidly.

30 30 The Washington Post - April 27, 2008

31 31 Emergence of China as Major Importer e.g. Soybeans

32 32 MARKETS REMAIN VOLATILE Recent Price Behavior Wheatprices more than tripled in the spike of 2008 and then dropped sharply to about 50% above previous levels-but in last 2 years have been very unstable averaging more than double prespike prices; Corn prices increased almost 3X, dropped sharply but then moved sharply up in 2011 when they exceeded 2008 peak and went even higher in 2012 >3X; but recently have dropped sharply. Similar pattern with soybeans and canola; Current Rice prices are almost double pre spike levels:$ /8/13 vs < $ Wheat prices and Corn prices are still above OECD/FAO and FAPRI Projections; 11/8/13 Wheat $US 240/mt, Corn $US 167/mt. Let s look a few slides to get a picture of market behavior.

33 33 Wheat: Near Future July Aug 30, CBOT $US/bu

34 34 Corn: Near Future July 2004 Aug 30, 2013 CBOT $US/bu

35 35 Soybeans: Near Future July Aug 30, 2013(CBOT) Cents/Bu

36 Rough Rice: Near Future July Aug 30, 2013, (CBOT, $ /100 lbs) 36 Monthly Commodity Futures Price Chart Rough Rice (CBOT) TFC Commodity Charts

37 Where Are Prices Going? 37 Prices have been unusually volatile since the 2008 spike almost five years ago; They remain well above pre 2008 levels; They show no sign of returning to previous LT downward trend in real prices; And projections by OECD suggest most price will remain high through 2021; That s good for supply response, bad for managing food security.

38 38 Real Prices: Rice, Wheat, Maize Source Alston, Martin & Pardey 2013 Index of Real Prices (1924=100) Rice Wheat Maize

39 39 All ag. commodity prices to average higher in relative to the previous decade NOMINAL %

40 Percent Change in World Prices of Cereals between 2010 and Percent Change Rice Wheat Maize Millet Sorghum Other grains Source: IFPRI IMPACT Model

41 What Will be The Future Sources? 41 We Will look at 4 Possibilities: New Land; New Water Developments; Improved Biological and Agronomic Productivity Policy Reform

42 Future Sources: Land? 42 New Land into production? Limited potential in only a few countries Brazil, Savannahs of Africa, Ukraine, Russia and not many more. Would in many cases require new technology e.g. cerrados in Brazil; -----or further loss of forests. Offsetting challenge is land loss to urbanization, degradation, desertification, and salinization, In recent years loss has exceeded new land brought into production. FAO sees modest increases in developing countries BOTTOM LINE- new land not the answer -most must come from productivity improvement.

43 43 Arable land and land under permanent crops, past and future (OECD/FAO Outlook 2012) World Developing countries Developed countries Mha

44 Future Sources: Water? 44 Adding to a small base of old systems of irrigation in Egypt, the Middle East and East Asia, irrigated acreage doubled in the period ; Acreage took off in the 1960 s, peaking at a growth rate of 2.7%/yr in the 1970 s but rate declined to 0.4%/yr by the 1990 s and has stayed low. Big Damns are out WB focus now small scale catchment basins, system rehabilitation and improving efficiency of water use. Current focus more on hydro e.g Ethiopia on Nile. BOTTOM LINE: New expansion limited if at all.

45 Future Sources: Water? Bigger Challenge is to maintain the capacity and efficiency of existing systems; Losses of productivity due to salinity, siltation, and water logging are mounting; Expanded use of ground water has seriously depleted aquifers e.g. Ogallala, Punjab and China; Increasing competition from urban and industrial users; Expanded concerns about safe drinking water puts pressure on agriculture to be less of a polluter BOTTOM LINE: bigger issue may be decline in available water for Ag.-must improve productivity.

46 46 Future Sources- Biological & Agronomic Productivity Therefore comes down basically to: - can we double yields in major crops again? Commercial wheat and rice yields more than doubled, and US corn yields quadrupled, in the 2 nd half of 20 th century. Can we do it again when productivity growth has slowed? Semi-dwarf wheats and rices, which allowed greatly increased fertilizer use without lodging, was combined with expanded irrigated area to, for example, quadruple wheat production in India between 1970 & India has become an exporter in some years; How often and where can this be repeated?? Critical then to use best of modern science.

47 47 Future Sources-Biological & Agronomic Productivity- 2 Biotechnology, in the minds of many, offers enormous potential for yield increases and managing biotic and abiotic stresses; To date they claim to have only scratched the surface, and yet it has fostered improved yields by better management of pests and weeds; e.g.--round-up Ready corn, BT cotton One result is no-till or low till agriculture which has reduced erosion and decreased pesticide use. e.g. BT cotton. And yet biotech is highly controversial, especially trans-species genetic transfers (GMO s). Is further complicated by widespread use intellectual property protection by large private firms that dominate developed country ag research; raises question for some of who will control the food supply? Growth in public investment in Ag research and agricultural development plunged in the 1990 s and 2000 s

48 Slowdown in Public Ag R&D Spending Growth 48 Source: Pardey, Beintema Dehmer and Wood (2006)

49 49 Future Sources- Biological & Agronomic Productivity- 3 European resistance to biotech is spilling over to Africa via trade threats, (see Paarlberg Starved for Science); Yet Africa has the lowest, and the slowest growing, yields in the world and has the highest population growth projections; So where will increased output come from? Until now the vast majority of food consumed has been indigenously produced huge challenge for Africa. Africa is a growing net importer of food While trade has grown, we noted it still represents a small share of the consumption of basic staples-rice 6%, corn 12% and wheat 18%; And these percentages have changed little over the last 50 years.

50 Future Sources Policy Reform? 50 Many Policies Will Have Major Impacts:-Positive or Negative- the list seems endless. R & D Investments domestic and international e.g. CGIAR; Investments in agricultural development/poverty reduction; A Substantive WTO agreement which liberalizes ag trade; Elimination of export controls and taxes; International/Regional policies for food security in poor countries- regional stocks? Collective use of futures markets? Domestic policy reform, particularly in Developed Countriesget rid of amber box subsidies e.g. supply management; Policies to manage climate change and its impacts on agriculture- mitigation and adaptation.

51 Future Sources-Policy Reform? Need to Go Beyond Traditional Ag Policies-2 51 Development of alternative energy sources so can reduce use of food crops?? Better management of natural resources; more efficient use of water especially in agriculture; Better management of wastes- agriculture is not immune here; Effective policies for food security, nutrition and health security; Investments in Human Capital, Education, Schools; Macro-Economic Stability and Growth; And on and on

52 Future Sources-Policy Reform? Need to Go Beyond Traditional Ag Policies-2 52 Development of alternative energy sources so can reduce use of food crops?? Better management of natural resources; more efficient use of water especially in agriculture; Better management of wastes- agriculture is not immune here Effective policies for food security, nutrition and health security; Investments in Human Capital, Education, Schools; Macro-Economic Stability and Growth; And on and on

53 53 Global Potential vs Indigenous Capacity-not a choice of either/or-- REQUIRES BOTH Food Security is much broader than self-sufficiency- is also an issue of access. This means improving access has a big impact of poverty reduction. Some see a world of rich countries a smaller and smaller share of world s pop.- producing surplus food; Many more countries remaining poor with limited capacity to increase food production- food deficit countries; A world of haves vs have-nots. But is trade the full answer? Simply making world markets work better is not enough need to address improving agricultural profitability in poor countrieswin-win poverty reduction and food security. BOTTOM LINE: Productivity driven agricultural development must be an especially high priority.

54 A Really Tough Row to Hoe 54 Feeding 2.4 Billion more in a world growing more urban and with an expanding middle class is a huge challenge, made more so by: Potential negative impacts of climate change; Resource degradation accelerated by a growing population and expanded urban foot print; Loss of biodiversity, deforestation, declining per capita water availability and fisheries decline; Where production could expand is not where expanded need will be. Will Require Combination of Productivity Growth and Policy Improvements.

55 55 Therefore Challenges for World, & Africa are Enormous. For the World, Food Security in my view will become an even more critical issue for Global peace and stability. Global Productivity Enhancement has to be Top Priority focusing on investments in Ag Development and R & D. It will require an international effort by national governments, international organizations and the global private sector. Public/private partnerships will be critical, particularly for agricultural R & D. Global accords on for e.g. Climate Change, Trade Liberalization, IPR, Management of the Global Commonspollution, river basins, international fisheries etc. are crucial

56 56 Therefore Challenges for World, & Africa are Enormous.-2 Recall those two maps of Population and Income Growth Both are shifting to Africa and Asia whose diversified food needs will grow; In these rapidly growing, emerging economies the most rapid growth in demand will occur for commodities whose demand increases as people s incomes grow-livestock products, pulses, fruits and vegetables; For Africa the Challenge is the greatest-still relatively high population growth rates and hopefully rapid income growth. Africa is becoming a larger and larger net importer of Food This is both a challenge and an opportunity. It will require the best of science and the best of policy. And the Challenges for are even greater.