Updates on Improved Poultry Data for Modeling the Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Jim Glancey Department of Mechanical Engineering U of D

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1 Updates on Improved Poultry Data for Modeling the Chesapeake Bay Watershed Jim Glancey Department of Mechanical Engineering U of D

2 The Chesapeake Bay Watershed

3 Chesapeake Bay Program Modeling (Predicting) the Impact of the Food (Poultry) Industry EPA is using data from the late 1980 s and early 1990 s to estimate Nitrogen and Phosphorous generation from agriculture and our food production system. Key questions: What are the current predictions by the EPA model? What would the model estimates be if modern data were used?

4 Case Study: Sussex County, Delaware

5 Summary of Comparison EPA/ASAE UD/DDA/UMD EPA - UD Approach Approach Difference units No of Birds 43,620,576 43,620,576 0 birds produced daily (2007 census) Total Nitrogen Produced 35,332,221 14,839,720 20,492,501 lbs Total N per year Total Phosphorous Produced 8,818,067 5,103,607 3,714,460 lbs Total P per year 5

6 Chesapeake Bay Program Poultry Litter Sub-Committee Membership Jim Glancey, chair UD Mark Dubin UM Emma Giese CBPO Mark Davis DDA Tom Basden WVU Bill Brown UD Glenn Carpenter USDA NRCS Frank Coale UM Jason Dalrymple WVDA Doug Goodlander PA DEP Matt Johnston CBPO Bobby Long VA DCR Jen Nelson USDA NRCS Jerry Ours WVDA Paul Patterson Penn State Jim Pease VT Royden Powell MDA Tim Sexton VA DCR Kelly Shenk EPA Trish Steinhilber UM Jeff Sweeney EPA Jennifer Timmons UM Jennifer Weld PSU Hank Zygumnt Keith Campbell

7 Committee Motivation & Charge EPA modeling group is using the 2003 ASAE Standard to estimate Nitrogen and Phosphorous generation from animal agriculture. The Standard is based on caged bird studies from the late 1980 s and early 1990 s. Poultry Sub-Committee Charge: Collect data that better reflects modern N and P generation from animal agriculture Develop better estimates for poultry populations Make recommendations to AgWG for better modeling N and P generation within the watershed

8 Our Interest How much N and P is being generated within the Bay watershed from the poultry industry? Pounds of N = (lbs N/lbs litter) x (lbs litter/bird) x (#birds) (concentration) (generation) (population) Litter = bird excretion plus bedding material (saw dust)

9 Typical Data Set - Delaware Nutrient Content and Volume Generated - Chickens Parameter Value Time Range 2006 to 2011 No. of Data 3696 Avg. TN Concentration TN Range* Avg. TP Concentration TP Range* Moisture Content Moisture Content Range* Manure Generation 57.1 lbs/ton 55.4 to 60.3 lbs/ton 20.1 lbs/ton 17.9 to 21.3 lbs/ton 30.1 % w.b to 32.1 % w.b. 1.5 tons/1000 birds Comments All manure samples analyzed by the DDA laboratory. Bird sizes: 60% roasters, 40% broilers. Average bird weight = 7.1 lbs. Manure generation based on a total of 702 poultry house cleanouts or crustouts (Ray Ellis). Manure Generation Range 0.5 to 4.6 tons/1000 birds * Based on annual averages 9

10 Nutrient Concentration 10

11 DDA Lab Analysis of Poultry Manure 2005 through 2011 No. Total N Phosphate (P2O5) Total P lbs Year Samples % lbs/ton %P2O5 P2O5/ton % P lbs P/ton (total No. of samples) averages

12 Comparison Across the Watershed Chickens Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia N Generation lbs/1000 birds P Generation lbs/1000 birds

13 P2O5 in litter (lbs per ton) Phosphorous Concentration Trend Delmarva Slope not equal to zero (Greater than 95% confidence) Year

14 Poultry Population 14

15 Annual Production (x10^6) Current Method to Model Poultry Populations within the Watershed Based on the 5 year Ag Census data. Most recent census in For 2007, the population shown is the 2007 census number. Apply an escalation factor, f, to estimate subsequent years. f ~ 1% Delaware-Chickens Model EPA Model Year

16 Potential Data Sources for Population Estimates (Birds per year) Delaware Year Census NASS Placements* NASS Production NASS Slaughter 2012? 215,987, ,000, ,147, ? 223,589, ,800, ,305, ? 243,035, ,000, ,471, ? 243,572, ,700, ,595, ? 245,505, ,900, ,657, ,098, ,973, ,800, ,875,000 * Includes an early mortality factor NASS = National Agricultural Statistics Service NASS has recommended using the Production data.

17 Annual # of Birds (x10^6) Delaware-Chickens Model 240 NASS Production 235 Corrected Census Year

18 Litter Volume Generation

19 Litter Generation Estimates University of Delaware tons per 1000 birds University of Maryland tons per 1000 birds Penn State.. 20 lbs per 1000 lbs of birds 1.07 tons per 1000 small birds 1.65 tons per 1000 large birds Arkansas tons per 1000 birds NRAES 1.25 tons per 1000 birds Alabama lbs per lb of meat produced (~ 1.7 tons per 1000 birds)

20 Current Status Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia, and Pennsylvania have summarized state data & are writing a report. Other states have much less data than Delaware. The U.S. Poultry and Egg Association is trying obtain data from the poultry industry for other states. Chesapeake Bay Program (CBP) is requiring the report to be peer reviewed before adoption. Reviewed by individuals outside the watershed. Then approved by three CBP committees.

21 Current Status: Pilot Projects * Several manure to energy Filtering N and P from CAFO runoff. Removing composted poultry mortalities from the litter waste stream. Reclamation and reuse of poultry mortality and processing wastes. * - need estimates from CBP model to evaluate potential impacts on water quality.

22 Poultry Waste Reclamation Project DDA, Greener Solutions LLC, and UD Current State Future State Poultry Farm Production Feed Blender Poultry Farm Production Mortality Composting Compost Land Application Biofuel Producer Feedstock Commodities Mortality Preservation & Collection Useful Nutrient Absorption Reclamation Solids WATERSHED RUNOFF Irrigation Municipal System Water Treatment Irrigation

23 Questions? Comments? 23

24 Comparison Across the Watershed Chickens Wet Basis Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia Total N lbs/ ton Total P lbs/ton Manure lbs/1000 Generation birds 2,990 2,500 2,000 Moisture % Dry Basis Parameter Units Delmarva Virginia West Virginia Total N lbs/ ton Total P lbs/ton Manure lbs/1000 Generation birds ,825 1,340 24

25 DDA Lab Analysis of Poultry Manure 2005 through 2011 No. Total N Phosphate (P2O5) Total P lbs Year Samples % lbs/ton %P2O5 P2O5/ton % P lbs P/ton (total No. of samples) averages

26 Summary of Poultry Data Sets Across the Watershed Delmarva Chickens Data Sets: , , Virginia: Chickens, Turkeys Data Sets: , West Virginia Chickens, Layers, Pullets, Turkeys Data Sets: , , Overall 21 data sets summarizing over 8000 data points within the watershed. 26