KENYA Food Security Outlook October 2016 to May 2017

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1 Food insecurity in pastoral and marginal agricultural areas expected to increase KEY MESSAGES Current food security outcomes, October 2016 Food security has atypically deteriorated in parts of the southeastern and northern pastoral areas due to worse than normal rangeland conditions, livestock productivity, and household incomes, impeding food access. Poor households in these areas, including parts of Laisamis in Marsabit, Tana North in Tana River, and Fafi, Balambala, and Dadaab in Garissa are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. In the coastal marginal agricultural areas, food insecurity has atypically increased in parts of Kilifi, Taita Taveta, and Kwale due to the poor long rains crop harvest and a prolonged lean season, which has impeded farm-related labor opportunities and household income. Households in these areas have intensified livelihood and coping strategies and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but parts of these areas are likely to move to Crisis (IPC Phase 3) by February due to growing food gaps given the projected belowaverage short rains. The October to December short rains, which are forecasted to have La Niña-like impacts and be characterized by a late onset and early cessation in eastern Kenya, are not expected to typically regenerate rangelands, improve livestock body conditions and sales in most pastoral areas. As a result, many more households are likely to face food gaps during the January to April dry season, with Crisis (IPC Phase 3) food insecurity outcomes likely to increase and persist during this period. SEASONAL CALENDAR FOR A TYPICAL YEAR Source: FEWS NET This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here. Source: FEWS NET FEWS NET KENYA fews.kenya@fews.net FEWS NET is a USAID-funded activity. The content of this report does not necessarily reflect the view of the United States Agency for International Development or the United States Government

2 NATIONAL OVERVIEW Current Situation At the national level, food availability remains stable, mainly boosted by continued imports from Tanzania and Uganda, and due to long rains harvested food staples from the main grain basket areas since September. While there were concerns earlier in the season after a period of dryness in June that had threatened to destroy crop fields, rains resumed and most of the crops were able to progress well to maturity, producing an expected average long rains crop production. Supplies of coarse grains and fresh produce have improved in most parts of the country, except in the pastoral and marginal agricultural areas in the southeast and coastal strip where the long rains were poor. Further underscoring the stable supply of food staples is the relative stability in food prices. Across the urban reference markets of Nairobi, Eldoret, Kisumu, and Mombasa, wholesale maize prices remained stable between August and September supported by ample supplies from both imports and local production. September wholesale prices were near respective five-year averages, except in Mombasa, where they were up to 10 percent above average due to limited local supplies from a poor long rains harvest and increased reliance on imports at higher costs. Other commodities, like beans, also showed stability in prices, except in Mombasa again, where prices increased by seven percent between August and September due to minimal local stocks, which fuelled higher demand. During the long lean season from August till October, food security conditions typically deteriorated across most pastoral and marginal agricultural areas ahead of the onset of the short rains. With the varied performance of the long rains, deterioration in conditions affecting food security varied from region to region. Projected food security outcomes, October 2016 to January 2017 Source: FEWS NET Projected food security outcomes, February 2017 to May 2017 In the Southeastern and Coastal marginal mixed farming zones, the erratic nature of the 2016 March to May long rains resulted in substantial crop failure for maize, cowpeas, and green grams. The majority of poor households have depleted their food stocks after the poor long rains season failed to replenish their stocks and are going through an atypical lean season with low household incomes to make needed market purchases. Despite challenges with access, the situation is moderated by relative stability and/or Source: FEWS NET marginal increases in staple food prices. However, as of the end of October, both zones have not received any rain to date, which This map represents acute food insecurity outcomes relevant for is atypical for this time of year and could significantly affect crop emergency decision-making. It does not necessarily reflect chronic food insecurity. To learn more about this scale, click here. development if they do not begin in early November. The majority of poor households are only able to afford their minimum basic food needs and remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. In the pastoral areas, food security has typically declined through October as livestock productivity declined due to poor rangeland resources. The level of deterioration in rangeland conditions varies from region to region (see Figure 1 below) due to the wide variability in terms of long rains performance in the pastoral areas. While typical rangeland conditions are prevailing across most pastoral areas, parts of the Northern (Laisamis and North Horr), Northeastern (southern and eastern parts of Mandera and Wajir), and Northwestern (northern and eastern parts of Turkana) pastoral livelihood zones are experiencing worse than normal conditions for this time of the season. However, in the Southeastern pastoral zones of Garissa and Tana River counties, which experienced substantial rainfall deficits in the previous season, 25 to 50 percent of Famine Early Warning Systems Network 2

3 normal rains, an atypical deterioration in rangeland conditions and livestock productivity has been observed, with large areas reporting depleted pasture and water resources. Household food access and availability is currently being hampered by low income levels due to the decline in livestock productivity and the fact that most households have moved their livestock far from homesteads, which constrains livestock sales and market purchases. Through various coping strategies, the majority of pastoral households are able to meet their minimum dietary food needs, but not non-food needs and are Stressed (IPC Phase 2). However, in the Southeastern pastoral zone, localized households in parts of Tana North in Tana River and Fafi, Balambala, and Dadaab in Garissa; and in parts of Laisamis in Marsabit in northern pastoral zone, poor households are experiencing food gaps and are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to substantial drops in livestock productivity and income. Figure 1. East Africa emodis 250m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index Anomaly 2016 minus Average ( ) Period 59 / Oct 16-25, 2016 Following the Government of Kenya s announcement to close Dadaab refugee camp in Garissa County, repatriation efforts have continued, with close to 27,000 refugees being voluntarily repatriated as of mid-october However, these efforts have been stalled, with some of the refugees being stranded near the border with Somalia, after regional leaders in Jubaland, which borders Kenya and where most of the returnees are going, stopped receiving them, citing Source: USGS/FEWS NET inadequate humanitarian support. Tensions remain high in the camps, with a reduced scale of humanitarian support. Refugees remaining in the camps rely heavily on food aid, and are likely to continue to face increased food insecurity, diseases, and high malnutrition outcomes. In Kakuma refugee camp in Turkana County, the arrival of more refugees from South Sudan is likely to stretch the already limited resources, with the possibility that some refugee populations are likely to face acute food insecurity and exposure to diseases, due to constrained health services. Assumptions The following assumptions have been made at the national level: According to Kenya s State Department of Agriculture estimates, the 2016 long rains crop production in the Western and Rift Valley is projected to be near average, approximately 2.9 million metric tons (MMT). According to the Greater Horn of Africa Climate Outlook Forum (GHACOF) forecast, the October to December short rains are forecasted to be below average in total cumulative amounts in eastern Kenya, driven in part by the La Niñalike conditions and slightly negative Indian Ocean Dipole that is likely to persist through November. The rains are likely to be characterized by a late onset and early cessation, and poor temporal and spatial distribution. In Western Kenya, the rains are likely to have a near normal start and be average in total cumulative amounts. With the forecast for the short rains pointing towards below-average cumulative amounts, of between 70 to 90 percent of normal, preliminary projections indicate that short rains crop production beginning in February will be up to 50 percent below average. This projection is based on rainfall performance only, but other factors like county support through input subsidy programs and agronomic practices will also be critical for crop performance. The March to May 2017 long rains are likely to start on time and be near-average in term of cumulative totals across most of Kenya. Two consecutive below-average crop production seasons in the southeastern and coastal marginal agricultural areas are likely to result in a reduction in food commodities in the markets, resulting in a gradual increase in staple food commodity prices, especially from January FEWS NET projections show that between October and December, wholesale maize prices are expected to oscillate between KES 2,500 3,000 in Mombasa, Nairobi, and Eldoret but will likely be between KES 3,200 3,500 in Kisumu. From January through May 2017, a gradual and typical increase is expected across all the reference markets, with prices mainly ranging from KES 3,000 3,500. Staple food imports, mainly maize, beans, and rice, to Kenya from surplus-producing Tanzania and Uganda is expected to typically continue through May 2017 but at relatively higher prices compared to last year, as a result of a below-average harvest in Uganda, replenishing of stocks depleted from the previous 2014/2015 below-average Famine Early Warning Systems Network 3

4 harvest in Tanzania, and higher regional demand. Increased imports from Tanzania will also be supported by increasing supplies from both the 2015/2016 Msimu and Masika harvests, and 2016/2017 Vuli harvests. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes According to FEWS NET s projections, nationally the food security outlook points towards stability through the first quarter of 2017 with some areas of exception outlined below. The expected average long rains crop harvest from the major grain growing areas, and continued imports from Tanzania and Uganda, will ensure most markets are well-provisioned with food commodities. Preliminary estimates point towards the long rains maize harvest being about 2.9 million metric tons (MMT). However, the 2016 short rains crop harvest is likely to be up to 50 percent below average since the forecast indicates about 75 to 90 percent of normal rainfall with a delayed onset and poor distribution. While the forecasted below-average season will likely yield lower crop production and reduce food availability, imports are expected to play a key role in moderating any supply short falls. Preliminary estimates from the State Department of Agriculture (SDA) notes that imports from Uganda, Tanzania, and Ethiopia will be about 295,000 MT, 360,000 MT, and 1,400 MT, respectively, through June 2017, with imports from Uganda and Tanzania expected to be higher than normal due to anticipated below-average 2016 short rains, and an average 2017 long rains harvest in Kenya. Through June 2017, the imports and local harvest will result in a marginal national surplus before the 2017 long rains harvest starts. Higher food prices are likely as imports from Tanzania are likely to come in at relatively higher prices, with competition for imports also increasing. Food availability and access will remain stable for poor households across many areas of Kenya through May 2017, especially in the high and medium producing areas, resulting in None (IPC Phase 1) acute food insecurity. In the Southeastern and Coastal marginal mixed farming zones, food availability and access will improve but only moderately through January driven by the below-average short rains. FEWS NET will closely monitor the onset of the rainy season in these zones and provide updates accordingly. If early November rains do not materialize, this could potentially lead to crop failure in most areas. It is still expected though that on-farm labor opportunities, despite being lower than normal, will still support food access from markets. Food availability will also be supported by the short-cycle crop harvest beginning in December. However, income and food from self-production are expected to remain at atypically below-average levels throughout most of the outlook period. From April onwards, the average rains are likely to stimulate increased demand for farm labor, especially in the coastal marginal areas, improving incomes. During the January to April period, poor households are expected to atypically depend on coping mechanisms, such as switching their consumption to less preferred or cheaper foods, reducing the number of meals per day, borrowing food from friends and relatives, in order to support their minimum basic food needs. Some localized areas that reported substantial rainfall deficits over the past two consecutive seasons, which have worse crop and livestock production conditions, like parts of Ganze in Kilifi, will likely require emergency assistance from January onwards to mitigate food consumption gaps that are expected, resulting in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). However, the majority of poor households in these two livelihood zones are expected to remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through May In the pastoral areas, only modest improvements are expected in rangeland resources and livestock productivity between October and January. Households will largely keep their livestock in the dry season grazing areas, limiting access to livestock products for food and a source of income for sale and herding. The below-average previous and impending seasons will likely result in lower kidding, lambing, and calving activities, reducing milk availability for consumption and for sale. As a result, overall household food availability and access during this period is expected to be atypically low. Dependence on the market for food commodities is expected to continue as poor households will atypically increase their reliance on coping mechanisms like charcoal production, sale of wood products, and petty trading. The majority of poor households are likely to have a low quality diet but still meet minimum food needs, while forgoing other non-food needs. In the same period, the nutrition situation is expected to remain fairly stable and/or marginally improve. The Nutrition Information Working Group (NIWG) projects based on historical trends that levels of acute malnutrition in Mandera, Garissa, Tana River, Marsabit, and Turkana are likely to remain Critical (Global Acute Malnutrition, GAM, of 15.0 to 29.9 percent), and Serious (GAM of 10.0 to 14.9 percent) in Wajir, Isiolo, and Samburu counties (see pastoral nutrition assumption for more details). From February through May, the negative effects of a below-average short rains season are likely to be more severe as rangeland resources deplete faster than normal, with more livestock out-migration expected, further reducing livestock household holdings, and lowering the numbers for sale. The average March to May rains are not expected to adequately regenerate pasture, browse, and water since they were affected by the two previous consecutive below-average rainy seasons. It is expected that income, food availability, and access will remain poor throughout the scenario period. While the majority of pastoral households will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity through May 2017, more households in areas with worse livestock productivity conditions will likely move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) from January through May Famine Early Warning Systems Network 4

5 AREAS OF CONCERN Marginal Mixed Farming areas of concern Southeastern Marginal Mixed Farming livelihood zone Current Situation In the Southeastern marginal mixed farming zone, the 2016 March to May long rains, though not the most relied upon in this region, were largely near average but were characterized by poor spatial and temporal distribution, which caused crop production and total planted area for various crops to be below average. Maize production across the zone was 40 to 70 percent below average. Production of other crops, including beans, cowpeas, and green grams, were equally below average, but there were regional variations. For the ongoing short rains season, some farmers have dry planted, but the majority, about 60 percent, remain skeptical about the coming season, preferring to wait until the rains set in before embarking on planting. These activities are providing some casual labor opportunities though at below-normal levels. As a result, the majority of poor households continue to rely on non-farm labor opportunities for income. Most households have no food stocks from their own production and are having to rely solely on markets for food access, which is limited by reduced household incomes. Despite lower incomes, stability in food market prices is facilitating household food access. Retail maize prices have remained fairly stable or marginally increased from August and remain below average levels, supported by wellprovisioned markets from inflows from outside the region. Demand for agricultural labor is yet to peak, contrary to typical times when it would usually start by September or early October with land preparation and planting. With limited income, the majority of poor households forgo non-food needs to meet their minimum basic requirements and remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2). The protracted lean season is currently fuelling resource-based conflicts between farmers and livestock herders as competition for forage and water heighten, especially along the borders of Makueni-Kajiado, Kitui-Tana River, and Meru- Isiolo. Assumptions The forecast indicates that in the southeastern marginal areas, the short rains will begin in late October/early November, with the rains peaking in mid to late November/early December. The month of December will be characterized by below-average amounts since cessation is expected by early December. The forecasted below-average October to December rains and short growing season are likely to result in a 40 to 50 percent reduction in crop production in February Following the below-average March to May 2016 long rains, and being the main crop production season, this will likely result in a considerable reduction of food availability from December 2016 through May Due to the expected below-average short rains, reduced agricultural production activities will likely moderately reduce on-farm casual labor opportunities and consequently labor wage rates from October to December during the planting and weeding seasons and from January to February during the harvesting season. The subsequent below-average household income will likely drive households to rely more on coping mechanisms, like borrowing food to counter food insecurity, from October 2016 through March From March through May 2017, agricultural labor activities will resume to normal levels, boosted by the expected average rainfall, providing household income and improving household purchasing power. Between October and December in the southeast marginal agricultural areas, in the reference market of Kitui, maize and bean prices are expected to gradually rise and then remain stable at a higher level than 2015 prices because of the expected below-average local short rains harvest. However, continued imports from Tanzania will help moderate any sharp increases. In February 2017, a short-lived dip in prices is expected as a result of the available short rains harvest, after which prices are expected to increase seasonally. Nevertheless, from January to May 2017, staple food prices are expected to be above 2016 prices and range between five and eight percent above the averages for beans and five and ten percent above the averages for maize. Imports of maize and beans from Tanzania are set to increase significantly from October through December due to the moderately below-average crop production in August and diminishing household stocks. From January to May 2017, imports will likely continue but at lower levels due to tightening supplies in Tanzania and the available long and short rains harvests from Kenya s North Rift and marginal areas, respectively. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 5

6 Human wildlife conflict will most likely moderately increase from late December 2016 through March 2017 as a decline in forage force communities to encroach protected areas in search of pasture and water for their livestock. From April onwards, conflict will likely significantly reduce as forage becomes available driven by the March to May long rains. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes October to January: The forecasted below-average short rains are likely to result in below-average income from farm-related activities since these are expected to be lower. As a result, income from this source will remain atypically low through January. With poor cropping prospects, more poor households are likely to increase reliance on non-farm income sources like charcoal/firewood sales, non-farm casual labor, petty trade, and remittances from relatives. December will likely offer some minor relief to poor households as short-cycle crops, like vegetables and pulses, become available, providing food and income-earning opportunities from their harvesting and sales, albeit at below-average levels. The prevalence of acute malnutrition is expected to slightly reduce with the moderate improvements in food consumption and dietary diversity. The increased demand for food from markets, against a relatively declining supply, will likely result in a gradual increase in staple food prices. As a result, a large majority of poor households will face lower purchasing power, atypically restricting adequate food access through January. A majority of poor households are likely to be able to only meet minimum dietary needs but not essential non-food needs due to their reduced incomes and will be in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. February to May: The short rains harvest in February is expected to be significantly below average, with FEWS NET s preliminary estimates pointing towards 40 to 50 percent below-average maize production, with a corresponding drop in onfarm labor opportunities during harvesting. With the harvest, a proportion of households will experience a short-lived increase in food availability, food consumption, and dietary diversity, albeit at below-normal levels. Regardless, household stocks are expected to be depleted faster than normal. With no major food stocks from their own production, there will likely be a higher than normal market reliance for food access against a continued drop in household income. To bridge the incomegap, there will likely be an atypical intensification of coping strategies, such as an increased search for non-agricultural wage labor in petty trade, other sectors like construction and sand harvesting, and labor out-migration to peri-urban and urban areas. Notably, the expected average long rains will provide a resumption in agricultural income-earning opportunities from late March onwards, which will facilitate more food market purchases. The majority of poor households are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2) through May. Other marginal agricultural areas of concern Current Situation In the Coastal marginal agricultural mixed farming zone, poor long rains led to production shortfalls of 45 to 70 percent below average for the major crops, including maize, cowpeas, and green grams, reducing availability of food produced at the household level. With the long rains accounting for about 60 percent of their annual crop production, this means the next major harvest is not expected until after the 2017 long rains in July. About 80 percent of households are atypically relying on markets for food access, with no major replenishment of household food stocks from the July/August long rains harvest. Households are having to atypically depend on non-farm related labor opportunities and also earn income from increased coping mechanisms, such as petty trade and charcoal sales; increased remittances, and some livestock and livestock product sales. Land preparation activities for the short rains, which would normally have started, are still very low, as most farmers in this zone also remain skeptical about the season. Most households are not able to access farm-related income opportunities normally available at this time. Markets have been operating well and there have been no reports of any major disruptions, with prices being relatively stable or marginally increased, and remain near averages. Due to the poor recharge of water points during the last rains, most of the open water sources have dried up. Water availability is atypically low, even for the end of the dry season across the livelihood zone, with FEWS NET estimating that up to 80 percent of open water sources have dried up. This means that households have to migrate their livestock further distances and spend more time collecting water for domestic use and consumption. Return trekking distances to livestock and domestic water sources have atypically increased up to 100 percent above normal levels, and are more than 10 km in parts of Ganze, Kaloleni and Magarini in Kilifi. These areas are also reporting worse rangeland conditions. In parts of Kwale (Kinango and Lungalunga), Kilifi (Ganze, Magarini, and Kaloleni), Taita Taveta (Voi) and Lamu (Lamu West), pasture has completely depleted. Livestock brought from other counties, like Tana River and Garissa, to this zone also accelerated forage depletion. The current circumstances have also been aggravated by the delay of the short rains, which would typically have started by now but have not materialized. The majority of poor households are only able to afford their minimum dietary needs and cannot meet all of their other non-food needs and are in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Famine Early Warning Systems Network 6

7 Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The short rains will likely result in below-average crop production in this zone as in Southeastern marginal. Since it is the second consecutive poor harvest, household food availability is likely to further diminish. Exacerbating this situation will be the below-average availability of farm-related income-earning opportunities. Low household incomes will constrain food access for the majority of the poor households through April. Livestock productivity will remain equally low, supported by the poorly regenerated forage resources. Increasingly, water and pasture stress are likely throughout the scenario period. Atypical intensification of coping mechanisms is expected as poor households attempt to compensate for the foregone income and food. While the majority of poor households are likely to be Stressed (IPC Phase 2), localized households in areas with more severe crop and livestock conditions, like in Ganze in Kilifi, are likely to be in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) through May Pastoral areas of concern Northeastern Pastoral livelihood zone Current Situation In the Northeastern pastoral zone, food security typically waned through the lean season. Following the below-average 2016 long rains, which resulted in a below-normal recovery of rangeland resources, most areas are currently reporting fair to poor pasture, browse, and water conditions. Localized areas of Oldonyiro and Sericho in Isiolo, Mandera South, East and Lafey in Mandera, and parts of Wajir South, East and Tarbaj in Wajir are, however, reporting total depletion of pasture and water resources, with close to 70 percent of livestock out-migration reported from these areas. An influx of livestock from other counties, including Marsabit, Samburu, and Garissa, also contributed to a faster than normal depletion of rangeland resources in the zone. In some parts of Isiolo (Bassa, Hawaye, and Belgesh in Isiolo North/South), access to pasture and water was limited by the prevailing resource-based conflicts. Livestock productivity remains typically low. Livestock body conditions range from fair to poor across the livelihood zone. Between July and September, milk production declined 40 to 60 percent, and remained 42 to 73 percent below averages, attributed to a decline in pasture and water and the longer trekking distances to watering and grazing points. As a result, milk consumption at the household level has fallen, with current consumption levels up to 30 percent below average. The return trekking distances to livestock watering points from grazing fields have gradually increased, currently being 10 to 15 km, as most water pans dry up and water volumes in the nearby reservoirs fall. However, these current distances remain 15 to 30 percent below long-term averages, mainly due to water projects initiated by the respective county governments, which, over time, reduces relative distances from grazing fields to the nearest watering points. Also, further compounding low livestock productivity, and negatively impacting incomes, are the low herd sizes, with an average poor household having two to three cattle, and ten to fifteen goats and sheep, and no camels. Typically, an average household would have about five camels, 10 to 20 goats, and five to 10 sheep. Livestock productivity is also hampered by the prevailing livestock disease, including sheep and goat pox, and suspected cases of Contagious Bovine Pleuropneumonia (CBPP) and Botulism, which have led to livestock deaths, especially in parts of Wajir and Mandera. Livestock prices, especially for goats, are also typically declining, albeit very gradually. Between July and September, goat prices across representative markets of Mandera and Wajir counties declined up to 17 percent, but remained up to 19 percent above average. On the other hand, retail maize prices have remained fairly stable in Mandera and Wajir, and below averages due to the low relative demand against an increased preference for other substitute commodities like rice. Households purchasing abilities are currently restricted, with terms of trade (ToTs), a proxy for household purchasing power, typically declining up to 14 percent, from July, though remaining up to 30 percent above five-year averages. Low household incomes are impeding effective market access. Income is currently seasonally low as most households maintain their livestock in the dry season grazing areas, limiting availability of livestock-related labor-earning opportunities and food access from livestock products, and the numbers available to households for sale. According to the NDMA monthly bulletins for September, the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition, measured with the Mid-Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) <135mm, has typically increased seven to 12 percent across the livelihood zone, from July, attributed partly to declining household food consumption, but also to other underlying factors, such as high morbidity and frequent disease outbreaks (measles, diarrhea, dengue fever, and Chikungunya), and low immunization and Vitamin A supplementation coverage. The current at risk rates, however, remain near averages in Mandera but are up to 28 percent below average in Wajir and Isiolo, mainly due to the upscale of nutrition interventions in the last year. To support current food access, most households are employing different consumption-based coping strategies, which include, borrowing from friends and relatives, consumption of less preferred and cheaper foods, purchasing food on credit, Famine Early Warning Systems Network 7

8 reducing the number and sizes of meals, and skipping meals altogether. Households are currently consuming one to two meals a day, typical in some areas but atypical in others like Oldonyiro in Isiolo. Milk consumption remains typically low, having fallen by up to 20 percent between July and September. Through the various coping strategies, the majority of poor households in the livelihood zone are only able to afford their minimum dietary requirements but are forgoing other nonfood needs and remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Northern Pastoral livelihood zone Current Situation Food security in the Northern pastoral zone is also typically deteriorating with the progression of the lean season. Large parts of these areas, however, received average long rains and are reporting fair rangeland resources, though typically declining. Pasture, browse, and water resources range from fair in agro-pastoral areas to poor in pure pastoral areas in the zone, though all normal for this time of the season. Exceptions are in southern parts of Laisamis and North Horr in Marsabit and parts of Samburu East, in Samburu, which received 50 to 75 percent of normal rains, and are reporting worse rangeland resources. While the average return trekking distances to watering points from grazing fields has increased 20 to 30 percent between July and September, and currently range between 12 to 17 km, the areas of exception above are reporting 20 km and higher. Livestock productivity is typically low, with most households having moved livestock to dry season grazing areas far from homesteads. Livestock product sales, like milk and meat, are limited due to out-migration, reducing household incomes to support any meaningful market purchases. A reduction in income is due to limited availability of livestock and non-livestock income opportunities and declining livestock prices due to poor body conditions and reduced demand in most markets. Livestock (goat) prices have declined nine to 15 percent between July and September across the zone, though they remain 11 percent above average in Marsabit but seven percent below average in Samburu. Staple food prices, on the other hand, remain fairly stable, though low household incomes impede market access. The livestock-to-cereals ToTs have typically declined 10 to 15 percent between July and September. Despite the decline, ToTs remain near-to-above average. However, most households have few disposable livestock units, hence cannot effectively participate in livestock trade. The average herd size in the zone is two camels, four cattle, ten goats, and ten sheep. While herd sizes remain near normal levels, the numbers available for sale at the household level are quite reduced due to either out-migration or body size. Besides livestock sales, which contribute close to 60 percent of household income, households have intensified engagement in other nonlivestock-related income opportunities, including petty trading, sale of charcoal and other wood products, and other casual labor activities, to bridge the income gap and support food purchase. Milk consumption has declined by up to 30 percent below the average, as few animals are lactating, and most households maintain their livestock in the dry season grazing areas. Household milk consumption stands at about 0.5 litres per day, mainly from camels and cattle. Most households are typically consuming one to two meals a day and have switched to consumption-based coping mechanisms, including reliance on poor dietary quality foods, borrowing food from relatives and friends, reducing the number of meals per day, cutting meal portion sizes, restricting the quantity consumed by adults to ensure children have enough, and purchasing food on credit. Cereals are primarily consumed but rarely are pulses, milk, and milk products. NDMA s September bulletin reports that the proportion of children at risk of malnutrition are increasing up to 13 percent from July, and remaining 44 percent above five-year averages in Samburu, but 15 percent below the five-year average in Marsabit. Regardless, the majority of poor households in the livelihood zone are currently in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity, with the ability to only access minimum dietary requirements but not essential non-food needs. However, localized households in parts of Laisamis are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) due to the severe depletion of rangeland resources, which has significantly affected livestock productivity and food access. Assumptions In addition to the national assumptions above, the following assumptions have been made about both the Northeast and Northern Pastoral livelihood zones: The October to December short rains are expected to be below average in cumulative amounts. As a result, rangeland resources are expected to improve modestly, at below-normal levels. Faster than normal depletion of these rangeland resources is expected, resulting in atypical pasture, browse, and water stress between January and March With projections for below-average short rains, compounded also by a previous below-average long rains, livestock activities like lambing, kidding, and calving, expected from November onwards will be at below-normal levels. As a Famine Early Warning Systems Network 8

9 result, the below-average livestock births will likely result in lower livestock herd sizes, as recovery from previous losses, either through slaughter, rangeland resource stress deaths, and selling, is slowed. The resumption of the short rains in October is likely to offer some reprieve, especially to pastoral communities, who often compete for resources. However, the regenerated resources will be depleted faster than normal and from January through April, competition for resources is expected to be heightened. However, as the long rains resume in early April, competition will subside. Livestock prices are expected to typically decline through November, driven by poor rangeland resources, which continue to affect body conditions. Prices are expected to start stabilizing and/or improving from November, following the resumption of rains, which will likely improve rangeland resources and hence livestock body conditions, albeit at below-normal levels. Price improvements will mainly be supported by increased demand due to the festive season, which will be approaching. Through December, goat prices in the representative markets of Mandera and Isiolo will range between KES 4,500 5,000 and KES 2,800 3,300, respectively, and remain five to 30 percent above averages. With regeneration of rangeland resources expected to be below normal, faster depletion is expected, and pasture will become scarce from January onwards. As a result, livestock prices are expected to atypically decline from January 2017, though in Mandera prices will still remain within the KES 4,000 4,500 band. In Isiolo, however, goat prices are expected to move to a lower price band and will likely range between KES 2,500 3,000. Expected drier than normal conditions in Isiolo will affect pasture, browse, and water conditions, straining livestock. Prices are expected to start resuming an upward trend from April onwards after the resumption of rains and improvement in rangeland conditions, resulting in better livestock health and body conditions. Retail maize prices in the representative Isiolo and Marsabit markets are expected to gradually increase through December as supplies are drawn down and demand from households increases. Prices in Isiolo are also expected to remain up to 10 percent above averages, driven in part by a below-average previous production season that has affected stock levels. In Marsabit, maize prices will remain below average throughout the scenario period, as demand for maize remains relatively constant due to the communities preference for other substitute commodities like rice. Through May 2017, prices in both markets are expected to atypically maintain an upward trend, albeit slowly, but will largely remain between KES per kilogram. Between October and January, the nutrition situation in both livelihoods is expected to remain fairly stable and/or marginally improve. On-going nutrition interventions and the expected marginal improvements in household food consumption after the onset of the short rains will likely prevent a serious increase in the prevalence of acute malnutrition. The Nutrition Information Working Group (NIWG) estimates that through December, levels of acute malnutrition in Mandera and Marsabit counties will likely remain Critical (GAM of 15.0 to 29.9 percent), and Serious (GAM of 10.0 to 14.9 percent) in Wajir and Isiolo counties. Between January and May 2017, the nutrition situation is expected to atypically decline, with Critical level (GAM of 15.0 to 29.9 percent) expected in Mandera and Wajir counties and Serious (GAM of 10.0 to 14.9 percent) in Isiolo. These projections are based on analyses of historical trends. The high malnutrition outcomes in the pastoral areas are partly caused by reduced food availability and access, but also more importantly due to other underlying issues, including poor child care practices, disease, access to quality health care services, and particular socio-cultural behaviors of pastoral households. Livestock-related casual labor opportunities are expected to remain at below-average levels throughout the scenario period. First, the expected below-average October to December short rains will not trigger substantial households to migrate their livestock back to wet season grazing areas near homesteads. Instead, most pastoralists will likely keep their livestock in dry season grazing areas. This will provide very limited opportunities for those looking for livestockrelated activities like herding and selling livestock products. During the short dry season from January through March 2017, more households will move their livestock away from homesteads in search of pasture and water. Though the onset of the long rains will signal some households to migrate their livestock back to wet season grazing areas near their homesteads, this is likely to remain at below-normal levels due to the expected average rains, which would not be adequate to regenerate substantial pasture and browse, considering the effects of two consecutive below-average rainy seasons. Through May, livestock-related opportunities, will slightly increase but remain below-normal levels. With the expected poor season and limited livestock-related income-earning opportunities, poor households are expected to atypically increase the search for alternative income-earning opportunities throughout the outlook period. The income-earning opportunities usually available during the short dry season, January to March, will be even scarcer, against a growing labor supply. This will also lower wage rates as supply exceeds demand for labor, with wage rates expected to be between KES , which would be 10 to 20 percent lower than the typical prevailing Famine Early Warning Systems Network 9

10 wage rates. In addition, the intensification of coping mechanisms is expected as many households rely more than normal on firewood and charcoal burning, remittances, and the collection and sale of bush products. The repatriation exercise by the Government of Kenya in Dadaab refugee camp has caused panic among refugee populations and disrupted their usual livelihoods, as well as their access to typical income and food sources. The majority of this population remains highly vulnerable to worse food insecurity and high malnutrition outcomes. The situation is likely to be exacerbated by the suspension of the exercise, after Jubaland authorities in Somalia, stopped receiving refugees, citing inadequate humanitarian support. In addition, the reported influx of refugee populations fleeing South Sudan into Kakuma refugee camp is likely to outstretch available resources, by partners and the Government of Kenya. New arrivals are expected to face difficulties accessing shelter and food, and there are expectations of worse food insecurity and malnutrition outcome in the camp throughout the scenario period. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes October to January: Across the Northeastern and Northern Pastoral zones, the shorts rains will provide only modest improvements in household food security. Rangeland resources will slightly improve, supporting marginal increases in livestock productivity, including milk production and consumption, and livestock sales due to improved body conditions, but all at below-normal levels. Income from livestock sales is expected to remain at below-average levels, as the forecasted performance of the short rains will likely mean that households will keep their livestock in dry season grazing areas. This will limit most poor households abilities to access the animals. Similarly, fewer livestock-related income-earning opportunities, like herding, will be available during this time, as most households keep their livestock away. Below-normal milk production will impact household consumption and reduce amounts available for sale. In order to bridge the income gap and support market purchases, more poor households will likely atypically increase their reliance on coping mechanisms like charcoal production, sale of wood products, petty trading, and intensify their search for non-livestock-related opportunities. Overall household food availability and consumption during this period is expected to be atypically low, as livestock products, like milk and meat, will be less available due to low livestock productivity, and incomes will remain low, limiting households abilities to access the typical food commodities from the markets. The majority of households are likely to have low quality dietary intake and an inability to meet their non-food needs. In the same period, the nutrition situation is expected to remain fairly stable and/or marginally improve, as the marginal improvements in food consumption and on-going nutrition interventions prevent any serious deterioration in the prevalence of acute malnutrition. A combination of income from sale of livestock, milk availability, and income from engagement in petty trading, as well as food purchases through credit, though at atypical levels, are expected to allow poor households to meet their minimum daily requirements, remaining in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. However, in localized parts of Laisamis in Marsabit, which were already experiencing food consumption gaps before the short rains, poor households are not projected to recover by December and will remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity. February to May: The negative effects of a below-average short rains season are likely to be more severe during this period. With partially regenerated rangeland resources expected to be depleted faster than normal, more households are likely to keep their livestock far from homesteads in dry grazing areas, leading to much lower numbers for selling. In addition, deteriorating livestock body conditions will result in less income from sales of the few livestock available, further reducing income from this source. Even more important, there will be very few income-earning opportunities from herding near homesteads. Even with the forecasted average 2017 March to May long rains, it is expected that the average rains will not be able to adequately regenerate pasture, browse, and water affected by the previous two consecutive below-average rainy seasons. Food access at the household level will be constrained, except from May, when some improvements are expected. Livestock-related products, like milk and meat, will continue remaining scarce, impacting household consumption. Market access and purchasing power will be hampered by limited household incomes. Consumption of low quality diets will continue throughout this period. As a result, this will likely increase the prevalence of acute malnutrition, which is atypical for this period. Reliance on charcoal/firewood production is likely to be intensified to bridge the income gap. However, some marginal improvements are expected from May onwards, though atypical high GAM rates will likely persist past the end of the outlook period. While the majority of pastoral households will likely face Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity outcomes, those already in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) are likely to remain. In addition, more households, especially in areas likely to suffer from substantial rainfall deficits and poor livestock productivity recovery during October to December short rains, are expected to move into Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through May Famine Early Warning Systems Network 10

11 Other pastoral areas of concern Current Situation In the Southeastern pastoral zone of Garissa and Tana River counties, food insecurity has atypically increased, following substantial rainfall deficits during the last long rains after receiving 25 to 50 percent of normal rains across most of the zone. Rangeland conditions and livestock productivity have atypically deteriorated, while food availability and access have been greatly affected by atypical low household incomes. Households have moved up to about 70 percent of all livestock outside the zone in search of pasture and water due to the severe water and pasture stress prevailing in the region. Areas of Dadaab, Fafi, Ijara, Balambala, and Township in Garissa; and Tana North (Bangale, Bura); and Tana River (Wayu) are experiencing drier than normal rangeland conditions. Even in the typical dry season grazing areas, like Tana Delta in Tana River, atypical pasture and water stress are evident, due to pressure from overcrowded livestock. Pre-lean season, most of these pastoral areas were already experiencing difficulties with accessing adequate dietary needs and other non-food needs, factors which have been exacerbated by the on-going prolonged lean season. Livestock productivity remains atypically low, with current milk production and consumption being up to 60 percent below average. Household incomes are atypically low due to limited livestock-related labor opportunities and fewer livestock available for sale at the household level. Food availability, from market purchases and own production, like milk and meat, have been affected. Livestock prices have typically declined. Households purchasing abilities, whose proxy is the livestock-to-cereals ToTs, have typically declined up to 30 percent below average, implying more strained conditions for accessing food, especially from the markets. Reduced food access and consumption at the household level has impacted household nutrition, with the proportion of children at risk of acute malnutrition increasing by 18 percent in Tana River between July and September, but remaining fairly stable in Garissa but at elevated levels, according to NDMA bulletins. At risk levels are seven and 40 percent above averages in Tana River and Garissa, respectively. The majority of households in the livelihood zone are Stressed (IPC Phase 2), but localized households in parts of Tana North in Tana River, and Fafi, Balambala, and Dadaab in Garissa are in Crisis (IPC Phase 3). In the Northwestern pastoral zone, mainly Turkana and northern parts of West Pokot and Baringo, poor households are going through a typical lean season, with reduced access to both food and income. These areas are reporting fair rangeland conditions, with distance to watering points from grazing areas remaining up to 20 percent below average levels, supported by some off-season rains received during the lean season. Livestock have good to fair body conditions except in localized areas, which had poor long rains and are reporting much worse rangeland conditions, like northern parts of Turkana and West Pokot. With households having moved close to 40 to 50 percent of all livestock to dry season grazing areas, this is a typical low agricultural labor demand period with low household incomes. Milk production and consumption have typically reduced, though remain near-average levels in West Pokot. These areas typically have an increased prevalence of acute malnutrition due to reduced household food availability and intake, as well as to a high incidence of chronic food insecurity issues, including high poverty levels, poor access to quality health services, and inappropriate child care and feeding practices, which cause high malnutrition outcomes even in good seasons. Through other coping strategies, such as those mentioned being employed in other pastoral areas, households are able to afford their minimum dietary needs but not non-food needs and remain in Stressed (IPC Phase 2) acute food insecurity. Most Likely Food Security Outcomes The below-average short rains are unlikely to trigger normal regeneration and recovery of rangeland resources in both the Southeastern and Northwestern pastoral zones. Livestock productivity, including milk production and body conditions, are expected to remain poor through at least April. While most areas are expected to remain Stressed (IPC Phase 2), localized areas in southeastern pastoral areas already experiencing food consumption gaps before the short rains, like parts of Tana River and Garissa, will likely remain in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food insecurity through January During the January to April period, worse than normal rangeland conditions and livestock productivity is expected, with an increasing number of households across both southeastern and northwestern pastoral areas experiencing food gaps, resulting in more Crisis (IPC Phase 3) acute food security outcomes. Declining food consumption is also likely to maintain elevated acute malnutrition outcomes in these areas. In Garissa, there is the possibility that a small number of worst-affected households could face Emergency (IPC Phase 4) acute food insecurity outcomes as they are likely to utilize emergency coping mechanisms to deal with their larger food gaps. In some of these areas, GAM prevalence is already over 15 percent, and the households are likely to experience an extreme loss of livelihood assets since they will have been in Crisis (IPC Phase 3) since September Famine Early Warning Systems Network 11