Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, Scott Irwin and Darrel Good

Transcription

1 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans Presentation Materials Visit the Downloads page at PDF of slides are available Video available tomorrow Questions Please submit questions during the presentation 1

2 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 1. June 1 Corn Stocks Avg. Guess = 4,528 Source: Reuters Jun 23, 216 mil. bu. 5, 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 2,5 2, 1,5 1, 5 4,722 4,362 4,453 4,261 4,31 4,28 3,852 3,67 3,533 3,148 2, Figure 2. June 1 Corn Stocks Minus Average Trade Guess mil. bu

3 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 3. Third Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn mil. bu. 1,4 1,2 1, 8 6 1,293 1,127 1, , , Figure 4. Feed & Residual Use of Corn First Three Quarters 6, 5, 4, 5,179 4,831 5,19 4,45 4,64 4,32 4,19 4,68 4,637 4,782 4,585 mil. bu. 3, 2, 1, 3

4 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 5. Fourth Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn 1,2 1, 973 Needed to reach USDA s 5, mil. bu Figure 6. Relationship Between June 1 Corn Stocks Surprise and Change in WASDE Feed and Residual Estimates from June to July, Change in WASDE Feed and Residual (mil. bu.) y = x R² = June 1 Stocks Surprise (mil. bu.) 4

5 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 7. Relationship between Change in WASDE Feed and Residual Estimates from June to July and June to Final, Final-June Change (mil. bu.) y =.827x R² = July-June Change (mil. bu.) Figure 8. Corn Balance 215/16 215/16 USDA 6/1 Irwin & Good Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) Harvested Acreage (million acres) Yield (Bushels / Acre) Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,731 1,731 Total Production (million bushels) 13,61 13,61 Imports (million bushels) 6 6 Total Supply (million bushels) 15,392 15,392 Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,25 5,15 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,61 6,585 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,25 5,225 Exports (million bushels) 1,825 1,85 Total Consumption (million bushels) 13,685 13,585 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,78 1,87 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 12.5% 13.3% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.7 $3.7 5

6 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 9. Acreage Summary for Principal Crops, CRP, and PP (Million Acres) Crop Principal Crops * CRP Prevent Plant ** Total * March Estimate = **Projected Figure 1. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn 1, 95, 94,148 9, thousands 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, Planted Harvested 86,55 Avg. Guess = 92,896 Source: Reuters Jun 23, 216 March = 93,61 6, 6

7 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 11. Planted Acreage of Corn by State Figure 12. Planted Acres of Corn Minus June Intentions 1,5 mil. ac. 1, , -1,5-1, ,39-1, , , -2,5-2,14 7

8 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 13. Planted Minus Harvested Acreage of Corn 12, 1, 9,564 9,926 acres 8, 6, 4, 6,585 6,899 7,576 6,899 7,111 6,934 7,659 7,298 6,662 7,689 7,7 7,412 6,892 6,746 8,57 7,914 7,461 7,25 7,598 2, Figure 14. U.S. Average Corn Yield trend = bu. per ac y = 1.828x R² =

9 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 15. Corn Balance 216/17 216/17 USDA 6/1 Irwin & Good Supply: Planted Acreage (million acres) Harvested Acreage (million acres) Yield (Bushels / Acre) Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 1,78 1,87 Total Production (million bushels) 14,43 14,55 Imports (million bushels) 4 25 Total Supply (million bushels) 16,178 16,337 Consumption: Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,55 5,45 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 6,67 6,67 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,3 5,3 Exports (million bushels) 1,95 1,95 Total Consumption (million bushels) 14,17 14,7 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 2,8 2,267 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 14.2% 16.1% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.5 $3.75 Figure 16. Reciprocal Regression Model Specification of U.S. Farm Price of Corn and U.S. Ending Stocks-to-Use Ratio, * Price ($/bu.) Strong Demand: y=8.52(1/x) Moderate Demand 1: y=8.52(1/x) Moderate Demand 2: y=8.52(1/x) Weak Demand: y=8.52(1/x) Base: y=8.52(1/x) Source: USDA Ending Stocks-to-Use Ratio (%) * Projected 9

10 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 17. June 1 Soybean Stocks 1,2 1, 991 1,92 Avg. Guess = 829 Source: Reuters Jun 23, mil. bu Figure 18. June 1 Soybean Stocks Minus Trade Guess mil. bu

11 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 19. Soybean Balance 215/16 215/16 Supply: USDA 6/1 Irwin & Good Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage (mil.) Yield (bu./ac.) Production (mil. bu.) 3,929 3,929 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) Imports (mil. bu.) 3 3 Total Supply(mil. bu.) 4,15 4,15 Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 1,89 1,895 Export (mil. bu.) 1,76 1,775 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,78 3,8 Ending stocks (mil. bu.) Stocks-to-use 9.8% 9.2% Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.5 $9.5 Figure 2. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans thousands 9, 85, 8, 75, 7, 65, 6, 55, 5, Planted Harvested Avg. Guess = 83,834 Source: Reuters Jun 23, 216 March = 82,236 83,688 83,37 11

12 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 21. Planted Acreage of Soybeans by State Figure 22. Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus June Intentions 1,5 1, 5 1,185 1, ac. -5-1, -1,5-2, , , , ,563-2,5-3, -2,489 12

13 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 23. Planted Minus Harvested Acreage of Soybeans 2, 1,8 1,858 acres 1,6 1,4 1,2 1, ,584 1,284 1,1 1, , ,37 1,79 1,88 1,27 1, Figure 24. U.S. Soybean Average Yield trend =46.1 bu.per ac y =.411x R² =

14 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans July 1, 216 Figure 25. Soybean Balance 216/17 216/17 Supply: USDA- 6/1 Irwin & Good Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage (mil.) Yield (bu./ac.) Production (mil. bu.) 3,8 3,86 Beginning stocks (mil. bu.) Imports (mil. bu.) 3 2 Total Supply (mil. bu.) 4,2 4,23 Consumption: Crush (mil. bu.) 1,915 1,915 Export (mil. bu.) 1,9 1,9 Seed and feed (mil. bu.) Total Consumption(mil. bu.) 3,94 3,94 Ending stocks (mil. bu.) Stocks-to-use 6.6% 7.4% Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.5 $1.4 Questions? Please continue to submit questions during this part of the webinar Visit the Downloads page at 14