Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 2018

Transcription

1 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 218 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans University of Illinois Presentation Materials Visit the Downloads page at PDF of slides available soon Video available tomorrow Questions Please submit questions during the presentation Figure 1. June 1 Corn Stocks Figure 2. June 1 Corn Stocks Minus Average Trade Guess 5,5 5,229 5, , 4,5 4, 3,5 3, 4,362 3,533 4,28 4,261 4,31 3,67 3,148 2,766 3,852 4,453 4, Avg. Guess: 5, ,5 2, Figure 3. Third Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn Figure 4. Feed & Residual Use of Corn First Three Quarters 1,4 1,2 1, 1,293 1,127 1, , , , 5, 4, 5,179 4,831 5,19 4,45 4,64 4,32 4,19 4,62 4,616 4,763 4,53 4,784 4, , 4 2, 2 1, 1

2 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 218 Figure 5. Fourth Quarter Feed and Residual Use of Corn 1,2 1, Needed to reach USDA s 5,5 52 Needed to reach USDA 5, Figure 6: Corn Balance 217/18 217/18 Planted Acreage (million acres) Harvested Acreage (million acres) Yield (Bushels / Acre) Beginning Stocks (million bushels) 2,293 2,293 Total Production (million bushels) 14,64 14,64 Imports (million bushels) Total Supply (million bushels) 16,942 16,942 Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,5 5,425 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,4 7,4 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,575 5,575 Exports (million bushels) 2,3 2,3 Total Consumption (million bushels) 14,84 14,765 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 2,12 2,177 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 14.2% 14.7% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.4 $3.35 Figure 7. Acreage Summary for Principal Crops, CRP, and PP Million Acres Principal Crops CRP Prevent Plant ** 23.5 Figure Principle Crops Planted Area () Acres and Change from Previous Year * March * June Planting Intentions ** Projected 218- June 322 Mil. Acres to be Planted in U.S. in 218 Up 2.9 Mil. Acres from 217 Figure 9. Planted and Harvested Acreage of Corn 1, Figure Corn Planted Area () Acres and Change from Previous Year 95, 9, 89,128 thousands 85, Planted 8, 75, 7, 65, Harvested Avg. Guess = 88,562 thousand acres March Planting Intentions = 88,26 6, 89.1 Mil. Acres of Corn Planted in U.S. in 218 Down 1.3 Mil. Acres from 217 (-1.2%) 2

3 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 218 Figure 11. Planted Acres of Corn Minus June Acreage 1,5 Figure 12: Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Corn 1, 1, 886 thou. ac , -1,56-1,39-1,5-1, ,44 thousand acres 8, 6, 4, 2, -2, -2,14-2,5 Figure 13: U.S. Average Corn Yield bu. per ac Trend Yield bpa y = x R² =.9327 Figure 14: Corn Balance 218/19 218/19 No Trade Issues Planted Acreage (million acres) Harvested Acreage (million acres) Yield (Bushels / Acre) Total Production(million bushels) 14,4 14,397 Beginning Stocks(million bushels) 2,12 2,177 Imports (million bushels) 5 5 Total Supply (million bushels) 16,192 16,624 Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,35 5,45 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,165 7,125 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,675 5,63 Exports (million bushels) 2,1 2,2 Total Consumption (million bushels) 14,615 14,775 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,577 1,849 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 1.8% 12.5% Average Price ($/bu.) $3.9 $3.7 Figure 15: Corn Balance 218/19 218/19 No Trade Issues 218/19 Trade Issues Planted Acreage (million acres) Harvested Acreage (million acres) Yield (Bushels / Acre) Total Production(million bushels) 14,4 14,397 14,397 Beginning Stocks(million bushels) 2,12 2,177 2,177 Imports (million bushels) Total Supply (million bushels) 16,192 16,624 16,624 Feed and Residual (million bushels) 5,35 5,45 5,45 Food, Seed, and Industrial (million bushels) 7,165 7,125 7,7 Ethanol (million bushels) 5,675 5,63 5,575 Exports (million bushels) 2,1 2,2 2,7 Total Consumption (million bushels) 14,615 14,775 14,59 Ending Stocks (million bushels) 1,577 1,849 2,34 Ending Stocks/Total Consumption (%) 1.8% 12.5% 13.9% Figure 16. June 1 Soybean Stocks 1,4 1,2 1, , Avg. Guess: 1, ,222 Average Price ($/bu.) $3.9 $3.7 $3.6 3

4 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 218 Figure 17. June 1 Soybean Stocks Minus Trade Guess Figure 18: Soybean Balance 217/18 217/18 Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage (mil.) Yield (bu./ac.) Production () 4,392 4,392 Beginning stocks () Imports () Total Supply() 4,718 4, Avg. Guess = 983 Source: Reuters June 23, Crush () 2,15 2,15 Export () 2,65 2,65 Seed and Residual () Total Consumption() 4,213 4,213 Ending stocks () Stocks-to-use 12.% 12.% Average farm price ($/bu.) $9.4 $9.3 Figure 19: Planted and Harvested Acreage of Soybeans 95, 9, 89,527 Figure 2: 218 Soybean Planted Area () Acres and Change from Previous Year 85, thousands 8, 75, 7, 65, Planted Harvested 6, 55, 5, Avg. Guess = 89,68 thousand acres March Planting Intentions = 88, Mil. Acres of Soybeans Planted in U.S. in 218 Down.58 Million Acres from 217 (-.6%) Figure 21. Planted Acres of Soybeans Minus June Acreage Figure 22: Planted Minus Harvested Acres of Soybeans 1,5 1, ,185 1, , 2,5 ac. -5-1, -1,5-2, -2, , , , ,563-2,489 thousand acres 2, 1,858 1,584 1,466 1,5 1,284 1,25 1,27 1,79 1,1 1,37 1, , , 4

5 Updated Supply/Demand/Price Prospects for Corn and Soybeans June 29, 218 Figure 23: U.S. Average Soybean Yield Figure 24: Soybean Balance 218/19 218/19 No Trade Issues 6 Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage (mil.) Yield (bu./ac.) Production () 4,28 4,4 Beginning stocks () bu. per ac y =.39x x R² = Trend Yield 48.5 bpa Imports () Total Supply () 4,835 4,93 Crush () 2, 1,99 Export () 2,29 2,25 Seed and feed () Total Consumption() 4,425 4,375 Ending stocks () Stocks-to-use 8.7% 12.7% Average farm price ($/bu.) $1. $9.5 Figure 25: Soybean Balance 218/19 218/19 No Trade Issues 218/19 Trade Issues Planted Acreage (mil.) Harvested Acreage (mil.) Yield (bu./ac.) Figure 26: November Soybean Futures Price Production () 4,28 4,4 4,4 Beginning stocks () Imports () Total Supply () 4,835 4,93 4,93 Crush () 2, 1,99 2,25 Export () 2,29 2,25 2, Seed and feed () Total Consumption() 4,425 4,375 4,16 Cents per Bushel Ending stocks () Stocks-to-use 8.7% 12.7% 18.5% Average farm price ($/bu.) $1. $9.5 $ /1/217 1/1/217 11/1/217 12/1/217 1/1/218 2/1/218 3/1/218 4/1/218 5/1/218 6/1/218 Questions? Please continue to submit questions during this part of the webinar Visit the Downloads page at Next Webinar Join us on August 1 at 1 p.m. for our next webinar looking at supply, demand, and price prospects in corn and soybeans Scott Irwin Todd Hubbs jhubbs3@illinois.edu 5