Market. Highlights. January 2013

Transcription

1 Market Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit - Somalia January 213 Issued February 22 nd, 213 Highlights Inflation: The January Consumer Index (CPI) declined slightly in South-Central while remaining relatively stable in all other regions of the North. Annual inflation reduced in Somali shilling (SoSh) areas but increased somewhat in the regions using Somaliland shilling (SlSh). The minimum cost of living is significantly higher in SoSh zones whereas it is moderately elevated in SlSh area when compared to the base period (March 27). Exchange rate between SoSh and the US Dollar (USD) gained marginal value over the first month of the year while the SlSh lost negligble ground to the greenback. Over the past year, SlSh has remarkably depreciated against the USD, while the SoSh has gained value. The annual appreciation of the SoSh is attributed to economic renaissance in the capital (Mogadishu), relative stability in most parts of the country, limited supply of the local currency notes and dollar inflows through humanitarian interventions and on-going foreign and local investments predominantly in the capital. The weakened SlSh is due to increased supply and circulation of new higher denomination currency notes. Local grain prices were mixed- decreased significantly in the key sorghum producing regions of Bay; slightly reduced in Juba, Central, Gedo and Hiran regions but remained relatively steady in all other regions. The decline in locally produced cereals mainly reflect good outturn of the 212/13 Deyr seasonal harvests. Other factors affecting current cereal price trends included: increased cereal flows from surplus markets to deficit markets, low prices of imported food and humanitarian food supply. Overall, cereal prices remained well below the levels a year earlier. s of most imported commodities continued to decline in January in nearly all SoSh markets while remaining relatively stable in SlSh areas. Compared to the same period last year, imported commodity prices are significantly lower in SoSh markets but stable in SlSh regions. The decline in prices of imported food is a result of the appreciation of the local currency, enhanced port functioning and humanitarian assistance Livestock prices remained stable to declining in most markets when compared to a month ago, in line with a seasonal pattern following the end of Hajj exports. Livestock prices are significantly higher than a year ago in all monitored markets as a result of improved body conditions and restocking. Labour wages sustained their levels or reduced slightly in many markets in line with seasonal reduction in agricultural labour opportunities after harvests in crop producing areas. Labour wages are significantly higher compared to their levels a year ago in most markets. Terms of Trade (ToT) between labour wage and cereals were mixed- mostly stable or decreased with the exceptions of increases in Bay and Juba. The purchasing power of the poor mostly relying on casual labour has improved over the past year as a result of lower cereal prices, improved local quality goat prices and higher labour wages. This Market Data Update is a monthly report that presents a compilation of tabulated graphical market information produced regularly as part of the monthly monitoring process. The weekly price data is collected from 47 main markets throughout Somalia since 199. Market analysis is an integral part of all of FSNAU s Annual Food Security Projections and seasonal technical reports (Technical Reports on FSNAU Post Gu and Deyr Analysis). This data is available online on Funding Agencies Swiss Agency for Development and Cooperation SDC

2 Regional Market Highlights Juba Valley: s of imported food, cereals and livestock declined slightly in January. The ToT (12Kg/daily wage rate) was one unit up from the previous month s level. Compared to a year ago, prices are significantly lower for imported food and local cereals, whereas they are considerably higher for livestock. Annual comparisons of ToT between labor and cereals also indicate a significant improvement in purchasing power for casual labourers. Sorghum Belt: ly price changes indicate reduction for imported food, sorghum and livestock. The ToT between labour and cereals decreased by one unit from end year levels as labour rates slumped. Generally, annual price changes indicate a significant decrease for imports and local cereals and a remarkable increase for livestock. More specifically, the ToT doubled (24kg/daily wage) in Bay region over the past year, increased significantly in the Hiraan but remained stable in Gedo while it declined in Bakool. Shabelle Valley: ly prices of imported food and livestock declined while maize quotations appreciated. Slight increament in labour wages could not keep pace with inflated cereal costs, consequently reducing the January ToT by one unit (13kg for a day s worth of labour). s of most imported commodities and cereals are significantly lower while prices of livestock are significantly higher compared to the levels in January 212. Central: Imported food, livestock and local cereal prices decreased slightly in the opening month. Annual comparisons indicate significant decreases in the prices of all items except livestock, which is significantly higher. ToT (rice/ local goat) declined but is significantly higher when compared to the same month in 212, currently standing at 6kg/local goat. Northeast: imported food prices declined marginally while those of livestock and sorghum were up with a small margin. Annual price comparisons show significant decline for imported commodities and red sorghum while those of livestock are slightly higher. ToT (rice/ local goat) were down one unit from December 212 level (78kg/local goat) but is significantly higher when compared to the same month in 212. Northwest: s of imported food and livestock remained stable while the cost of local cereals were mixed. Compared to January 212, the prices have reduced for locally produced cereals; imports show mixed trends, while livestock prices are significantly higher. The monthly ToT between local white sorghum and wages remained steady but is significantly higher than in the same month last year, currently equivalent to about 12kg/daily wage rate. Banadir: ly changes in prices of imported food and goats show a moderate decrease; locally produced cereals remained stable. With the exception of highly valued goats, prices of imported and locally produced food are significantly below their levels a year ago. ToT cereal (maize/ labour wage) was one unit down from the preceding month to close at 17 kgs/ daily labour rate. Table 1: ly and Annual Changes in Terms of Trade-Cereals (kg) per Daily Labour Wage Rate ToT: MT of Cereals (kg) per Daily Labour Wage Rate Region Cereal used Jan. 212 Dec. 212 Jan. 213 ly change Annual change (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (kg/daily wage) (%) (%) Banadir White Maize % % Bay Red Sorghum % 1% Bakool Red Sorghum % -33% Gedo Red Sorghum % % Hiraan White Maize % 62% Juba White Maize % 71% Shabelle White Maize % 3% Northeast Red Sorghum 7 7 % 4% Northwest White Sorghum % 2% Central Red Sorghum % 33% 2

3 International Market Highlights Diesel: Crude oil prices in Abu Dhabi (Dubai) 1 closed the first month of the year trading at $17.4/barrel, just two percentage points above the December 212 quotations but slightly lower than the levels a year ago. According to the ly Oil Market Report (Feb 213) 2, the price appreciation was buoyed by signals of economic improvement in China and the United States, robust financial market activity, earlier than expected cutbacks in Saudi Arabian oil production and colder temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere. In Somalia Port Cities (Bossaso and Mogadishu), January 213 diesel prices remained relatively stable compared to their levels the previous month. The current prices are significantly lower (12-29%) than the same month last year, supported by appreciated SoSh as well steady supplies through sea ports. The price differential between domestic diesel and global crude oil prices over the last 12 months (since Jan. 12) reduced significantly, particularly in Bossaso (from 16 to 1 percent), signifying the influence of local macro-economic and socio-political factors in driving domestic fuel prices (Figure 1). Rice: The benchmark Thai rice (Thai A1 Super 1/ B) export price rose by 2% to $8 per tonne in January 213 3, which is 8 percentage points above the same month a year ago, reflecting large government purchases under the pledging programme 4. New year prices of imported rice in Bossaso and Mogadishu markets declined marginally (2-%) but were significantly lower (27-4%) than their levels the same month in 212. The annual price decline could be attributed to appreciated Somali shilling against the USD and higher supplies following enhanced port functioning. The gap between international and domestic rice markets has narrowed down from 74 percent in January last year to 12 percent currently in Mogadishu, and from 61 percent to 3 percent in Bossaso (Figure 2). USD per Kilogram USD per Litre Jan-9 Figure 1: Diesel s: Dubai, Mogadishu and Bossaso Jan-9 Apr-9 International Mogadishu Bossasso Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Source: FAO Statistics, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Monitoring System, 212 Apr-9 Figure 2: Rice s: Bangkok FOB, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Jul-9 Apr-11 International Mogadishu Bossasso Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Source: FAO Statistics, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Monitoring System, 212 Apr-11 July-11 Oct-11 Oct-11 Figure 3: International Wheat s Apr-12 April-12 Jul -12 Oct-12 Oct -12 Wheat: Export prices of wheat declined for the second consecutive month in January. The benchmark US wheat price (No.2 Hard Red Winter, f.o.b.) averaged USD 348 per tonne, down three percent from its Source: FAO Global Food Monitor, Feb 213 level in December but still 17 percent higher than in January 212 (Figure 3). The main drivers of the current wheat prices include low levels of wheat exports from the United Sates (major wheat exporter), large supplies of feed wheat, continued drought conditions in the United States, which affected wheat conditions in the southern great plains, where most of the wheat production is concentrated and weakening dollar 6. January 213 wheat flour prices were stable in both cities but were significantly lower (16-21%) than the same month in The main source of Somalia s oil imports 2 Published by International Energy Agency (IEA) in collaboration with Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) 3 The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Index February 213; FAO Global food price monitor, 11 Feb Ibid; farmers hand over their rice to the government at premium rates well above world market prices FAO Global Food Monitor, 11 Feb FAO Global Food Monitor, 11 Feb 213 3

4 International Market Highlights Sugar: The FAO Sugar Index 7 averaged 268 in January, down 6 points (2.2 percent) from December 212. s have declined for the third consecutive month, driven by the expectation of a large global production surplus and hefty export availabilities in the 212/13 marketing season, notably in Brazil and Thailand. Sugar production is also expected to be large in the traditional importing countries 8, which so far has limited their need to source from international markets. January sugar prices in Bossaso and Mogadishu remained generally stable when compared to December 212 levels but significantly lower (26-29%) than the same month last year, supported by increased supplies through commercial imports and appreciated domestic currency (Figure 4). USD per Kilogram Jan-9 Figure 4: Sugar s: International, Mogadishu and Bossaso Markets Cooking Oil: the FAO Oils/Fats Index 9 averaged 2 in January, up 9 points (4.4 percent) from December, reversing the declines observed in the last four months. The rebound was mainly driven by palm oil on account of fresh import demand and concerns that abundant rains could disrupt harvesting operations in Indonesia and Malasia, two largest 1 exporters of Palm Oil. On the domestic markets, vegetable oil prices dropped slightly (3-6%) over the previous month in both cities but significantly (2-26%) when compared to the same month in 212, the latter attributable to stronger SoSh, continued humanitarian interventions and improved port activities. Apr-9 International Mogadishu Bossasso Jul-9 Oct-9 Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Source: International Sugar Organization, FEWSNET and FSNAU Market Monitoring System, 212 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 7 The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Index Feb Confederation of Independent States, European Union, USA, China and India 9 The World Food Situation: The FAO Food Index Feb 213; Consists of an average of 12 different oils (palm oil, rapeseed oil, soybeen oil, sunfloweer oil, animal and fish oils etc) 1 United States Department of Agriculture [Online] 4

5 National Trends: CPI, Exchange Rates, Cereal s and Relative Purchasing Power Figure : Terms of Trade between wage rates and selected cereals Kg Cereal per Daily Wage Rate TOT Labour to Sorghum (Sorghum Belt) TOT Labour to Rice (NW) TOT Labour to Maize (Juba & Shabelle TOT Labour to Rice (Central & NE) Figure 6: ly Exchange Rate for Selected Regions (SoSh and SlSh to USD) 4 8 SoSh per US Dollar Baidoa Bossasso Galkayo Mogadishu Hargeisa SlSh per US Dollar Jan-1 Apr-1 Jul-1 Oct-1 Apr-11 Oct-11 Apr-12 Oct-12 Figure 7: ly Trends in Consumer Index (CPI, March 27=1) Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 CPI Central CPI North(Sosh) CPI North(SlSh) CPI South CPI somalia (SoShs) 2 CPI per Kg (SoSH) Mar-7 Mar-8 Jun-8 Oct8 Dec-8 Mar-9 Jun-9 Sep-9 Dec-9 Mar-1 Apr-1 May-1 Jun-1 Jul-1 Aug 1 Sep-1 Oct-1 Nov-1 Dec-1 Feb-11 Apr-11 May -11 Jun -11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 Feb-12 Apr-12 Jun-12 Aug-12 Oct-12 Dec-12 3, 27, 24, 21, 18, 1, 12, 9, 6, 3, Jan-1 Juba Valley(White Maize 1 kg) Shabelle Valley(White Maize 1 kg) NE (Red Sorghum 1 kg) SorghumBelt(Red Sorghum 1 kg) Central(Red Sorghum 1 kg) NW (White Sorghum 1 kg) Mar-1 ar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 8: ly Trends in Local Cereal s per Kg (SLSH)

6 Regional analysis: Juba Regions Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Indices * Consumer Data has been collected Index since May % -2% - Purchasing Power Index % 2% - * Data has been collected since May 21 Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 31,242 3,821 31,371 28,2 13,983-8% -1% -1% Imported Red Rice 1kg 22,689 21,171 18,64 17,71 8,69-17% -% -23% Petrol 1 litre 32,49 34,86 33,1 28,429 14,72-17% -14% -13% Sugar 22,69 2,436 21,47 19,2 9,496-24% -1% -1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,31 4,2 43,617 37,36 18,612-18% -14% -17% Wheat Flour 1kg 19,36 18,1 17,229 16,643 8,197-8% -3% -14% Wheat Grain 1kg 16,666 18, Red Sorghum 1kg 7,924 7, 6,4 7, 3,639-17% -% White Maize 1kg 9,327 1,794 8,346 8,36 3,96-26% -4% -14% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 8,2,78 9,8,833 9,9, 9,61,2 4,811,141 1% 1% 13% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,168,142 3,92,343 4,678,67 4,37,6 2,147,28 2% -8% 36% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 16,686 17,87 2,2 2,167 9,93 13% % 21% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,36,67 1,343,229 1,822,314 1,717,679 86,18 28% -6% 66% Goat Local Quality (Head) 682,671 86,286 1,81,329 1,43,893 2,291 22% -3% 3% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 73,934 7,6 98, , 6,481 % 16% 4% Cowpeas 1 kg 21,726 32,941 2,114 19,714 9,728-4% -2% -9% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 8,32 79,164 92,479 9,143 47,33 2% 3% 19% Firewood Bundle,862 7,97 9,1 9,714 4,743 22% 7% 66% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 7,6 78,6 7,693 68,393 33,99-13% -1% -3% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 27,93 24,37 22,289 21,373 1, -12% -4% -23% Construction Materials* Cement kg 38,86 274,16 26,96 241,8 12,44-12% -9% -22% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 327, ,71 319,417 3,42 2,921 % 8% 4% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26 14,67 147,992 12,29 114,37 6,98-23% -% -26% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 19,2-1,3 1, 7, % -22% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 34,4 38,8 36,42 34,167 16,933-12% -% -1% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 49,3 39,6 339,71 3,893 12,391-22% -1% -38% Roofing Nails 1Kg 734,8 678,8 788, 81,714 46,41 2% 3% 11% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 292, ,8 243,8 239, 119,293-8% -2% -18% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 4, 4, 8,2 6,938 32,771 63% 13% 63% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % 7% 38% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % % 77% Figure 9: Trends in cereal prices Cereal (Maize) 12 1 Figure 1: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) 2 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 11: Imported Commodity scompared to Exchange Rate Figure 12: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 13: Exchange Rate Figure 14: Water Drum 6

7 Regional analysis: Sorghum Belt Regions (Bay, Bakool, Gedo and Hiran) Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 31,267 37,318 31,327 31, 1,34-17% -1% -1% Imported Red Rice 1kg 24,641 23,6 2,182 18,773 9,29-21% -7% -24% Petrol 1 litre 31,421 36,2 31,14 3,614 1,161-16% -2% -3% Sugar 24,41 28,477 22,4 21,886 1,81-23% -2% -1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 44, 46,4 4,64 42,727 21,2-8% -6% -4% Wheat Flour 1kg 2,88 19,864 18,34 17,386 8,67-12% -% -16% Wheat Grain 1kg 14,117 8,63 9,16 8, 3,888-1% -13% -43% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 8,99 7,163 7,12 6,78 3,244-6% -6% -17% White Maize 1kg 9,34 8,41 7,822 7,49 3,663-6% -3% -19% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 7,464,166 1,978,889 14,1, 13,92, 6,939,1 27% -1% 86% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,6,38 3,167,87 4,48,7 4,11,2 1,999,47 27% -9% 4% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 18,74 2,386 23,4 21,932 1,833 8% -7% 18% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,133,92 1,37,99 1,822,727 1,63,91 823,982 7% -9% 46% Goat Local Quality (Head) 67,77 1,2,7 1,232,382 1,17,91 83,41 1% -% 78% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 114,34 138,818 14,4 12,91 7,968 1% -1% 33% Cowpeas 1 kg 22,19 2,37 2,4 18, 9,147-27% -9% -16% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 82,622 1,682 19,673 9,136 47,326-6% -13% 1% Firewood Bundle 4,789,114 6,6 6,69 3,22 3% 1% 39% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 73,14 8,292 68,286 66,67 33,14-17% -2% -9% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 28,3 24,786 22,366 21,77 1,721-12% -3% -23% Construction Materials* Cement kg 31,6 363, 327,13 317,7 18,31-13% -3% -1% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 38, , 33, 291,864 14,397-1% -4% -% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,24 196,136 17,1 166,42 82,864-1% -2% -16% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 11, 12,1 16,4 11,,633 -% -28% 4% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 3,32,,6 8,833 29,229 7% 6% 1% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 3,8 28,7 323,333 33,194 11,4 6% -6% 1% Roofing Nails 1Kg 829, ,4 733,2 762,778 38,12-3% 4% -8% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 27, ,66 283,44 34,864 11,878 8% 8% 11% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 13,988 97,143 9,714 86, 43,21-11% -% -17% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % -8% 39% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Sorghum(Kg)) % 1% 11% Indices Consumer Index % -2% - Purchasing Power Index % 2% - * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 1: Trends in cereal prices Figure 16: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Cereal (Sorghum) Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative Purchasing power wage to cereal (Kg/daily Wage) Jan-1 Mar-1 May Jan-1 Jul-1 Mar-1 Sep-1 May-1 Nov-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 17: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Figure 18: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 19: Exchange Rate Figure 2: Water Drum 7

8 Regional analysis: Shabelle Regions Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 29,241 31,62 28,667 28,42 14,128-1% % -2% Imported Red Rice 1kg 21,47 2,83 16,9 16,2 8,1-21% -4% -24% Petrol 1 litre 3,98 34,48 29,3 29,48 14,8-1% 1% -% Sugar 21,966 23,28 21,167 19,87 9,88-14% -6% -1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 39,183 37,833 33,167 3,98 1,333-18% -7% -21% Wheat Flour 1kg 17,766 16,417 17,667 18,28 8,977 11% 3% 2% Wheat Grain 1kg 12, 12, 6,933,667 2,72-3% -18% -3% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 9,172 12,73 9,692 9,733 4,72-24% % 6% White Maize 1kg 7,297 6,83 4,936,2 2,2-23% 6% -28% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,98, 14,1, 16,68, 17,63, 8,788,62 22% 6% 66% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,24,4 4,28, 6,384,,89, 2,938,614 38% -8% 84% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 14,4 18,917 17,67 17,42 8,396-1% % 18% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,273,37 1,833,7 1,894, 1,911,2 92,677 4% 1% % Goat Local Quality (Head) 888,983 1,28,7 1,368,667 1,341,2 668,26 11% -2% 1% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 97, , 134,6 13,972 67,683 22% 1% 4% Cowpeas 1 kg 19,2 24,872 17,262 17,368 8,8-3% 1% -9% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 47,2 68,7 67,167 69,98 34,77 2% 4% 47% Firewood Bundle 3,84,62 6,167 6,417 3,99 14% 4% 67% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 6,9 6,42 7,967, 27,318-8% -% -1% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 28,298 2,88 23,133 21,83 1,69-14% -7% -24% Construction Materials* Cement kg 22, 231,2 26, 22,6 1,923-12% -2% -2% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 71, 7, 78, 763,7 38,637 9% -3% 8% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26 18,1 97,3 73,2 7, 37,37-22% 3% -3% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 13,2 12,7 12,2 12,313 6,38-3% 1% -7% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 49,687 49,37 2,1,438 2,44 2% -3% 2% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 27, , , 219,83 19,364-16% 23% -19% Roofing Nails 1Kg 62,187 96, 64, 67,7 282,929 -% 1% -8% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 4,6 1, 46,76 4,2 22,433-11% -3% -17% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 71,41 62,83 7,67 6,83 32,94 6% -6% -8% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -2% 14% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -8% 11% Indices Consumer Index % -2% - Purchasing Power Index % 2% - * Data has been collected since May Figure 21: Trends in cereal prices Cereal (Maize) Figure 22: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul Jan-1 Sep-1 Mar-1 Nov-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 23: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Figure 24: Goat Local Quality per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 2: Exchange Rate Figure 26: Water Drum 8

9 Regional analysis: Banadir Region Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 26,816 26,417 23,833 22,87 11,33-13% -4% -1% Imported Red Rice 1kg 24,3 2,28 13,917 13,62 6,692-33% -2% -4% Petrol 1 litre 29,33 29,7 24,67 23,21 11,376-23% -4% -22% Sugar 22,4 2, 17,393 16,313 8,32-2% -6% -28% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 38,76 38,42 32,867 31, 1,63-17% -4% -17% Wheat Flour 1kg 16,62 13,37 13,83 13,14 6,432-2% -4% -18% Wheat Grain 1kg 12,398 11,444 8,26 7,83 3,83-32% -% -37% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 8,371 8,27 4,98,4 2,92-33% 8% -3% White Maize 1kg 8,447 8,97 6,4 6,38 3,83-26% % -24% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,27, 11,, Cattle Local Quality (Head) 3,391, 3,, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 16,712 2,34 2,67 2,62 1,182 1% 3% 23% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,467, 1,6, 2,64, 2,3, 1,171,398 47% -11% - Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,182,2 1,481,2 2,297, 2,2, 1,96,621 49% -4% 86% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 164,333 12, 194,33 188,667 93,92 24% -3% 1% Cowpeas 1 kg 2,67 2,896 18,97 16,392 8,72-37% -12% -2% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 6,4 9,98 112,333 11, 4,736 21% -2% 82% Firewood Bundle,444 8,83 7,896 7,9 3,838-2% % 4% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 7,348 8,98 61,4 8,78 29,167 % -4% -17% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 28,6 2,29 22,437 21,27 1,6-1% -% -26% Construction Materials* Cement kg 21,34 187,7 166, ,8 81,99-12% -1% -22% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 21,62 313,12 266,6 269, ,46-14% 1% 7% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26 1,468 9,84 83,67 8,64 4,82-11% -4% -2% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 9,14 8,78 1,867 1,62,197 22% -2% 16% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 32,98 3,2 41,867 42,333 21,3 2% 1% 28% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 26,2 226,667 22, 24, 122,3 8% 9% -4% Roofing Nails 1Kg 17,127 17,921 47, ,63 23,492-11% -3% -11% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 179, ,37 116,67 112,83 6,24-19% -3% -37% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 18,7 82,917 18,333 12,417 9,929 4% 11% 11% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -2% 141% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Maize(Kg)) % -4% 146% Indices Consumer Index % -2% - Purchasing Power Index % 2% - * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 27: Trends in cereal prices Figure 28: Bakara: Trends in Wage Rates and Relative Purchasing Power 2 Cereal (Maize) Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 29: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Figure 3: Goat Local Quality Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 31: Exchange Rate Figure 32: Wheat Flour 9

10 Regional analysis: Central Regions Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 31,4 34, 28,9 27,2 1,228-2% -6% -12% Imported Red Rice 1kg 27,68 27,4 2, 19,7 1,981-28% -2% -27% Petrol 1 litre 27,887 29,7 26,12 2, 14,272-14% -2% -8% Sugar 2,837 3,6 22,6 22,3 12,444-27% -1% -14% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 1,373 4, 44,2 44,4 24,93-18% 1% -13% Wheat Flour 1kg 21,77 2,9 16,68 16,2 9,41-22% -3% -2% Wheat Grain 1kg 17,41 17, 13,6 13,333 7,4-24% -2% -23% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 12,62 1, 1,44 1,67,63-33% -4% -2% White Maize 1kg 14,494 16,3 9,7 9,2,13-43% -% -36% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 6,968,7 7,812, 1,, 9,718,7,466,633 24% -7% 39% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 2,31,2 2,4, Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 39,3 31,6 28,76 28,33 1,668-11% -3% -29% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,167,333 1,479,167 1,468, 1,39,83 86,9 4% % 32% Goat Local Quality (Head) 81,96 1,43, 1,16,4 1,11, ,736 7% -4% 36% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 173,822 18, 189,4 184,667 13,774 % -2% 6% Cowpeas 1 kg 27,62 39,2 2,76 18,33 1,43-4% -13% -3% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 74,32 88, 83,6 82, 46,24-7% -2% 1% Firewood Bundle 23,349 3, 38,4 36, 2,431 4% -% 6% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 9,3 93, 88,2 86, 48,6-7% -2% -4% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 28,73 26,38 22,36 21,66 12,86-18% -3% -2% Construction Materials* Cement kg 32,7 312, 281,368 27,28 14,743-12% -2% -14% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 437,7 383, 38,6 342, 192,4-11% -11% -22% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga ,2 147,2 17,68 19, 61,493-26% 2% -26% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 16,469 16,188 14,3 14, 8,6-1% 1% -12% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 46,7 1,,4, 28,2-2% -1% 7% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 31,9 297,9 292,4 268, 1,929-1% -8% -11% Roofing Nails 1Kg 796, ,1 66,1 64, 367,771-16% -2% -18% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 146, 141, 16, 16,2 9,66-2% % -27% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 12, 129,6 131,2 127,7 71,79-1% -3% -16% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % % 2% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -2% 87% Camel (Head)/Cereal (Kg) % -6% 92% Indices Consumer Index % -% - Purchasing Power Index % 6% - * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 33: Trends in cereal prices Figure 34: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power Cereal (Rice) Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) 1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 3: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Figure 36: Goat Local Quality Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 37: Exchange Rate Figure 38: Water Drum 1

11 Regional analysis: Northeast Regions Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre 28,4 3,438 23,9 23,12 1,174-24% -3% -18% Imported Red Rice 1kg 21,819 22,17 16,9 16,87 7,397-24% % -23% Petrol 1 litre 24,62 27,72 21,7 21,438 9,424-23% -1% -13% Sugar 23,723 28,463 2, 2,12 8,841-29% -2% -1% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 4,12 4,313 36,4 36,2 16, -33% -1% -19% Wheat Flour 1kg 19,138 19,263 1,7 1,7 6,897-18% % -18% Wheat Grain 1kg 2,38 2,62 2,4 2, 11,229 % % 1% Cereal s Red Sorghum 1kg 16,918 22, 18,933 19,2 8,42-14% 2% 14% White Maize 1kg 16,87 17,87 16,8 18, 8,119 3% 1% 1% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,747,78 14,14,62 14,97, 1,8, 7,19,342 12% 6% 47% Cattle Local Quality (Head),47, 7,6, 7,9, 7,2, 3,22,847 -% - 32% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre 34,37 3,2 38,2 39,688 17,32 13% 4% 1% Goat Export Quality (Head) 1,112,333 1,27, 1,39, 1,393,7 619,99 1% % 2% Goat Local Quality (Head) 1,49,12 1,43, 1,336, 1,321,87 87,167-8% -1% 26% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 316,271 4,62 378,4 38, ,82 -% 2% 22% Cowpeas 1 kg 3,9 7,2 33,8 32,167 14,191-44% -% -1% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 97,72 111,7 123,2 12,313,73 12% 2% 28% Firewood Bundle 27,37 38,12 48, 48,7 21,8 28% 2% 78% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 9,143 98,438 86, 87,313 38,69-11% 1% -3% Exchange Rate (Somali Shilling per USD) 28,997 26,813 21,67 21,813 9,91-19% 1% -2% Construction Materials* Cement kg 23,96 232,63 186,7 19,63 84,61-18% 2% -17% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 396,46 4, ,2 46,63 18,23-11% 2% 3% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga , ,7 18,4 183,7 81,34-16% 2% -19% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 12,469 12, 11,9 11,813,148 -% -1% -% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 37,187 36,87 38,7 39,37 17,393 7% 2% 6% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 19, ,63 174,7 166,87 74,37-4% -% -13% Roofing Nails 1Kg 437,47 434,219 66, 61, ,43 41% 1% 39% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 214, ,63 176,2 17,313 77,786-18% -1% -18% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 271,2 271,63 247, 241,2 17,8-11% -2% -11% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 2% 66% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -1% 63% Indices Consumer Index % 1% - Purchasing Power Index % -1% - * Data has been collected since May 21 Figure 39: Trends in cereal prices Figure 4: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power 4 Cereal (Rice) 14 Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Figure 41: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Figure 42: Goat Local Quality Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 per Unit (SoSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALI SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 43: Exchange Rate Figure 44: Water Drum 11

12 Regional analysis: Northwest Regions Indicator -Year Average (28-212) Dec-12 Nominal Real (Deflated) Same Previous Year Previous -year avrg (28-212) Imported Commodities s Diesel 1 litre,73 6,16 6,93 6,86,277 11% -1% 23% Imported Red Rice 1kg,114,34,8,6 3,87 -% % -1% Petrol 1 litre,611 6,34 7, 7,47,79 18% % 33% Sugar,198 6,29,89 6,1 4,682-3% 4% 17% Vegetable Oil 1 litre 9,996 11,232 13,2 12,9 1,12 1% -1% 29% Wheat Flour 1kg 4,441 4,2 4,4 4,44 3,38 4% 1% % Wheat Grain 1kg 3,2 3, 3,113 3,7 2,31 1% -1% -4% Cereal s White Sorghum 1kg 3,448 3,18 3,89 3,41 2,77-3% -% -1% Yellow Maize 1kg 3,632 3,7 3,36 3,481 2,629-6% 4% -4% Livestock & Livestock Product s Camel Local Quality (Head) 1,976, 2,993,7 2,62,267 2,624,333 2,7,36-12% 1% 33% Cattle Local Quality (Head) 1,122,62 1,284,167 1,82,867 2,66,83 1,619,833 61% 13% 84% Fresh Camel Milk 1 litre,37,27,6,6 4,29 6% % 6% Goat Export Quality (Head) 262,88 31,43 479,38 4,7 37,149 44% -% 73% Goat Local Quality (Head) 199, ,7 344,27 39,2 39,72 72% 1% 98% Other Essential Items Charcoal kg 33,77 39,1,98 47, 37,134 21% -7% 41% Cowpeas 1 kg 8,6 1,83 9,94 9,66 7,43 -% % 12% Unskilled Labor Wage Rate 29,31 34,6 42,7 4,6 31,764 17% -% 39% Firewood Bundle 3,9 2,467 3,317 3,667 2,774 49% 11% 3% Local Sesame Oil 1 litre 22,919 24,37 26, 26,619 2,766 9% % 16% Exchange Rate (Somaliland Shilling per USD) 6,4,8 6,63 6,72,172 1% 1% 11% Construction Materials* Cement kg 44,39 4,994 3,48 4,748 42,81 19% 2% 24% Cooking Pot Aluminium 7 Litre 14,23 19,872 87,94 97,2 76,131-11% 11% -7% Galvanised Iron Sheet Ga 26 46,469 43, 2,12 2,688 41,21 21% 1% 13% Hollow Concrete Block 1cm x 2cm x 4cm 2,962 2,77 3,38 3,381 2, 22% % 14% Non Collapsable Jerrycan 1 Litre 6,38,72 7,2 7,62,873 33% 6% 19% Plastic Tarpaulin 14m x m 6,13 74,37 98,3 13,8 81,3 4% 6% 9% Roofing Nails 1Kg 16,2 171,3 2,118 22,99 19,22 19% 1% 26% Timber 2in x 4in x 2ft 113,17 11,28 129, ,442 1,82 27% -1% 13% Woven Dry Raised Blanket 1cm x 2cm 73,7 68,81 81,21 83,7 6,1 22% 3% 1% Terms of Trade Labour Wage (Daily)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % -% 4% Local Goat (Head)/ Cereal (Rice(Kg)) % 1% 1% Indices Consumer Index % % - Purchasing Power Index % % - * Data has been collected since May 21 SLSH Figure 4: Trends in cereal prices Cereal (Rice) Figure 46: Trends in wage rates and relative purchasing power SLSH Labour Labour/Cereal TOT Relative purchasing power wage to cereal (kg/daily wage) Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 47: Imported Commodity s compared to Exchange Rate Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 Figure 48: Goat Local Quality Jan-1 Mar-1 May-1 Jul-1 Sep-1 Nov-1 per Unit (SLSh) PETROL 1 Litre SUGAR 1 kg VEGETABLE OIL 1 Litre RED RICE 1 kg SOMALILAND SHILLINGS PER DOLLAR Figure 49: Exchange Rate Figure : Water Drum 12

13 Trends in Livestock Exports Table 2: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats 1,72,66 2,683,97 2,376,646 2,814,49 97,224 2,48,136 1,61,83 1,46 341,711 63,17 89,44 1,23,79 1,17,242 1,3,4 1,219,19 1,6,3 2,84,81 3,14,684 3,219,84 Cattle 173,4 167,128 6,127 66,939 92,213 89,967 63,263 2,973 37,47 84, ,82 148,11 8,631 88,143 8,1 88, 133,21 1,934 19,34 Camel 38,3 21,993 42,81,87 11,663 37,43 16,984 3,473 18,864 21,874,147,69 22,81 14,24 26,1 2,26 92,61 17,281 12,664 Figure 1: Berbera Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,6, 3,4, 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR Table 3: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Shoats 344, 24, ,47 494,32 17,2 633,669 71,4 48,83 1,412,4 1,483,49 1,166,48 1,94,89 1,777,283 1,22,8 1,236,77 1,19,44 1,333,478 1,26,3 1,192,197 Cattle 1,4 8,79 1,33 17,831 29,492 36,86 27,64 42,248 3,313 71,328 79,994 91,91 14,9 89,19 78,46 67,38 13,88 99,8 76,43 Camel,397 8,392 2,462 14,99 3,938 1,44 8,177 1,9 9,72 4,29 2,488 26,19 33,724 27,8 27,639 1,331 36,86 4,878 22,288 Figure 2: Bossaso Livestock Exports (Number of Heads) Number of Heads 3,2, 3,, 2,8, 2,6, 2,4, 2,2, 2,, 1,8, 1,6, 1,4, 1,2, 1,, 8, 6, 4, 2, Camel Cattle Shoats YEAR 13

14 Trends in Cereal Imports Table 4: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso, Elmaan) * Rice 66,419 43,41 63,464 7,687 74, ,6 18, ,67 1,17 198,11 166, ,7 171, ,41 272, ,9 7,14 Wheat flour 3,143 26,774,176 78, 134,42 128, ,442 11, 169,83 178,34 176, ,28 24, ,8 28, ,491 1,34 Pasta 2,1 2,4 8,44 11,71 26,72 3,42 29,273 38,749 39,13 2,81 41,331 38,441 86,372 12, , ,878 33,713 4, Figure 3: Total Cereal Imports (Berbera, Bossaso and Elmaan) Cereal Imports in Metric Tonnes 3, 3, 2, 2, 1, 1, Rice Wheat flour Pasta, Year *Elman Data up to Jan 213 *Berbera and Bossaso Data up to Dec