The European Commission s science and knowledge service. Scene-setter on jobs and growth in EU agri-food sector. Joint Research Centre

Transcription

1 The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre Scene-setter on jobs and growth in EU agri-food sector Emanuele Ferrari Alfredo J. Mainar Causapé With contributions from T. Ronzon and R. M'barek Workshop on socioeconomic issues DG AGRI - Brussels, 9 June 2017

2 Outline Current picture and dynamic of employment, turnover and value added of the agro-food sector. A new database to describe and analyse jobs and growth issues. Examples extracted from the database

3 Millions Millions 14 EU28- Employed persons in Agriculture Farm Structure Survey FSS (right scale) Economic Accounts for Agriculture (EAA) Labour Force Survey (LFS)

4 Millions MS Employed persons FSS

5 Millions 3 MS Employed persons LFS

6 Millions EU28 employment, Agriculture Food, beverage and tobacco industry Source: Philippidis, G., M barek, R., Ferrari, E.; Drivers of the European Bioeconomy in Transition (BioEconomy2030) - an exploratory, model-based assessment; JRC Science for Policy Reports

7 Turnover Agriculture Food, beverage and tobacco industry

8 Value added Agriculture Turnover Food, beverage and tobacco industry Value added at factor cost

9 Austria Belgium Bulgaria Croatia Cyprus Czech Republic Denmark Estonia Finland France Germany Greece Hungary Ireland Italy Latvia Lithuania Luxembourg Malta Netherlands Poland Portugal Romania Slovakia Slovenia Spain Sweden United Kingdom 180 Turnover per person employed Agriculture Turnover per person employed

10 Apparent labour productivity (k per person employed) Apparent labour productivity (k per person employed) Location Quotient vs Productivity NL DK BE NL FR FR UK SK IT UK BE IT LU MT DE LU ES ES MT DE SK CZ SEDK CY HU HU SE EE IE CZ FIEU28 CYIE FIEU28 AT EE EL EL BG LT LT HR HR LV LV SIPT SI PT PL PL RO RO Location quotient Adapted from Ronzon et al., 2017 Bio-based and Applied Economics, 6(1)

11 BioSAMs What is a Social Accounting Matrix? An extension of traditional input-output tables Disaggregated structure of expenditure and income Integrate the relationships between institutional sectors, productive activities, goods and services and production factors. The objective of closing the full economic flow is achieved.

12 BioSAMs SAM structure and estimation Transaction matrix Final demand 2. Split accounts Value Added Imports 1. "close" matrix

13 BioSAMs SAM structure and estimation Structure of a Social Accounting Matrix Commodities Margins Activities Factors Households Enterprises Government Savings-Investment Rest of the World Total Commodities Transaction cost (trade and transport) Intermediate consumption (inputs) Household consumption Government consumption Fixed capital formation and change in stock (Investment) Exports Total demand Margins Activities Transaction cost (trade and transport) Marketed output / Domestic sales Total margins Activity income Factors Factor income from activities Factor income from ROW Factor income Households Labour and mixed income (Inter Households transfers) Distributed benefits to Households / Other transfers Current transfers to Households Current transfers to Households from ROW Household income Enterprises Operating surplus / Capital income Current transfers to Enterprises Current transfers to Enterprises from ROW Enterprises income Government Net taxes on products Net taxes on production Factor income to Government Direct taxes Surplus to Government / Enterprises taxes Current transfers to Government from ROW Government income Savings-Investment Household savings Enterprises savings Government savings (Capital accounts transfers) Capital transfers from ROW Savings Rest of the World Imports Factor income to ROW Households transfers to ROW Surplus to ROW Government transfers to ROW Current external balance Foreign exchange outflow Total Total supply Total margins Cost of production activities Factor income payments Households expenditures Enterprises expenditures Government expenditures Investment Foreign exchange inflow

14 BioSAMs 28 MS and EU aggregate 2010 BioSAMs consist of 171 accounts: 80 activities (27 Agricultural / 14 Food) Margins 80 commodities (27 Agricultural / 14 Food) Labour and capital 3 types of taxes: direct, indirect (net) on activities, indirect (net) on commodities Household Enterprises / Corporations Government Saving-investment Rest of the world

15 BioSAMs BioSAMs Agri-Food activities / commodities Paddy rice Sugarbeet Fodder crops Wheat Fibreplants Meat of bovine animals Barley Potatoes Meat of swine Maize Live plants Meat of sheep, goats, and equines Other cereals Tobacco Meat and edible offal of poultry Tomatoes Other crops Prepared animal feeds Other vegetables Bovine cattle Olive oil Grapes Sheep, goats, Dairy products Fruits and nuts Swine Rice, milled or husked Rapeseed Poultry Processed sugar Sunflower seed Other animal and their products Prepared animal feeds Soya seed Raw milk Other food products Olive Fishing Wine Other seed for the oil industry Other beverages and tobacco

16 Employment ('000 jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector. EU28, 2010 Agriculture Food Other Bio Natural Res. Manufacture Energy Service Total Agriculture 2,944 3, ,532 Food 179 4, ,249 Other BioEconomy , ,999 Natural Resources ,519 Manufacture , ,204 21,110 Energy ,314 Service 1,221 7,400 4, ,100 1, , ,063 Embodied 4,495 16,459 7,407 1,266 37,399 2, , ,784 Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs

17 Employment (jobs) embodied in 1 million euro of final demand of each sector EU28, 2010 Agriculture Food Other Bio Natural Res. Manufacture Energy Service Agriculture Food Other BioEconomy Natural Resources Manufacture Energy Service Embodied Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs

18 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Agriculture Food Other BioEconomy Employment (jobs), total and embodied in the final demand, by sector. EU28, Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Natural Resources 0 5,000,000 10,000,000 15,000,000 20,000,000 Embodied Total Agriculture Food Indirect (Others), 45.7% Other BioEconomy Direct (Agrifood), 54.3% Natural Resources Embodied Direct Embodied Indirect

19 Employment (jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector (Agri) EU28, , , , ,000 1,000,000 1,200,000 1,400,000 Cereals Veg Fruit OilSeeds OilPlants IndCrop Ocrop ExtLivProd IntLivProd OLivProd Raw milk Fishing Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Direct Indirect (agro-food) Indirect (rest)

20 Employment (jobs) embodied in the final demand of each sector (Food) EU28, ,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 5,000,000 6,000,000 7,000,000 AnFeed RedMeat WhMeat VegOil OilveOil Dairy Rice Sugar OFoodProd Wine BevTob Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Direct Indirect (agro-food) Indirect (rest)

21 Employment (jobs) embodied in 1 million euro of final demand of each sector. EU28, Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs

22 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Agriculture Food Origin (demand) of the employment in each sector, EU28, Other BioEconomy Natural Resources Own sector Other sectors Other sectors, 17.5% Source: Own elaboration using BioSAMs Agri+Food, 82.5%

23 The European Commission s science and knowledge service Joint Research Centre Scene-setter on jobs and growth in EU agri-food sector Emanuele Ferrari Alfredo J. Mainar Causapé With contributions from T. Ronzon and R. M'barek Workshop on socioeconomic issues DG AGRI - Brussels, 9 June 2017