SNAPSHOT OF THE EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL STATE OF SORGHUM

Transcription

1 1 ST EUROPEAN SORGHUM CONGRESS WORKSHOP CONGRESS INTRODUCTION SNAPSHOT OF THE EUROPEAN AND GLOBAL STATE OF SORGHUM Olivier BOUILLET, Director Black Sea, Agritel UKRAINE

2 CLASSIFICATION OF SORGHUM LETS FOCUS ON SORGHUM FOR GRAINS! Grain Sorghum Forage Sorghum Sweet Sorghum 2

3 SORGHUM VS CORN A MATTER OF QUALITY As much energy as corn but more: Protein Amino acids 3

4 SORGHUM: AN INTERESTING ALTERNATIVE TO CORN CORN SORGHUM 4

5 MORE BENEFITS TO GET WITH SORGHO THAN CORN IN DRY AREAS 5

6 UTILIZATION OF SORGHUM MOSTLY USED FOR HUMAN CONSUMPTION Sorghum utilization (%) 55% Share of feed use (% of total use) 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% Human consumption Poultry Alcohol seed Share of feed Linéaire (Share of feed) 6

7 WHAT ABOUT FUNDAMENTALS? ONE KEY WORD = STABILITY Key figures Export / production Wheat 23% Barley 19% Corn 14% Sorghum 13% Production World trade Ending Stocks (1000 MT)

8 RECORD OUTPUT IN

9 US AS THE MAIN PRODUCER 9

10 CHINESE AS FIRST CONSUMER IT SUGGESTS A SIGNIFICANT FLOW OF GOODS 10

11 A BIPOLAR ORGANISATION 11

12 US: BUSINESS ORIENTED! READY TO SACRIFICE THE CONSUMPTION FOR EXPORT US Sorghum use Export oriented production Capacity of the US to switch for other coarse grain when the demand for export is increasing Ending Stocks Total Consumption MY Exports 12

13 ARGENTINA: LESS PRESENT REDUCING ITS SHARE ON THE INTERNATIONAL SCENE Argentinian Sorghum use Export volumes are weaker than 1Mt/year Stable internal consumption Production decline as a explanation for export reduction 0 Ending Stocks Total Consumption MY Exports 13

14 AUSTRALIA: THIRD EXPORTER +/- 1MT: STABLE EXPORT 3 2,5 2 1,5 1 0,5 Australian Sorghum use Weak production Significant reducing in case of drought Ability to be always present on the international scene 0 Ending Stocks Total Consumption MY Exports 14

15 CHINA: IMPORT TO BE REDUCED? REDUCTION OF IMPORTS FOR THE SECOND YEAR IN A ROW ,6 10 9,3 8 7,8 6 5, ,2 0,881 0,271 0 Production MY Imports Total Consumption Ending Stocks 2010/ / / / / / /2017 Weak production Significant reducing in case of drought Ability to be always present on the international scene 15

16 LOWER DEMAND FROM CHINA, NOT ONLY FOR SORGHUM The import of China is reducing because of their willingness to use their internal stocks in order to decrease import needs in feed grains. That s why import needs were voluntarily reduced. Barley Corn Sorghum 16

17 REASONS TO IMPORT RALLY SPREAD EVOLUTION (CHINA CORN-US SORGHUM) 2013/ / / /16 High import of sorghum took place during the seasons when price difference stood at high level. 17

18 MAJOR SORGHUM SUPPLIERS PRICE COMPARISON AMONGST MAJOR ORIGINS Sorghum price (fob basis) of different origins converged since the removal of export tax in Argentina. 18

19 U.S. AVERAGE SORGHUM PRICE A WELL-KNOW DYNAMIC $ 7,00. $ 6,00 $ 5,00 $ per bu. $ 4,00 $ 3,00 $ 2,00 $ 1,00 $ 0,00 Harvest Year 19

20 PRICE FORMATION U.S. SORGHUM PRICE VS % U.S. FEED GRAIN STOCKS TO USE Sorghum prices formation largely depending on the availibility of feed grains 20

21 PRICE FORMATION PRICE RATIO VS CORN Interesting dynamics for the past three years 21

22 PRICE FORMATION SORGHUM MORE EXPENSIVE THAN CORN IN US 1,2 1,2 1,1 1,1 1,0 1,0 0,9 0,9 0,8 Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug 2015/ /17 Average 5 year In average, sorghum is more expensive than corn (average of US EXW prices) 22

23 EUROPE: NOT A KEY ACTOR BUT READY FOR OPPORTUNITIES The 2007/08 event clearly demonstrated the opportunistic behavior of EU. Spain as a key importer indicates that sorghum is a good alternative of switch for the feed industry. It suggests possible new opportunities for this crop for the future! 23

24 CONCLUSION Europe doesn t appear so far to be a key actor in the production as well as in the world trade, but is listening for opportunities Sorghum grain production is concentrated in dry areas. The global trade is rather concentrated with 3 main exporters and China is from far the hugest importer. Good parallel between sorghum and corn prices With reducing demand from China, the outlook for prices in middle-term (2016/17) remains not so optimistic as for corn... 24

25 THANK YOU VERY MUCH FOR YOUR ATTENTION! Olivier BOUILLET I Directeur Ukraine 25