Adapting to Climate Change: the Pioneering Practices of Climate-smart Agriculture in China

Transcription

1 GCOS Science Day, Hangzhou, 25 September 2017 Adapting to Climate Change: the Pioneering Practices of Climate-smart Agriculture in China Yinlong XU ( 许吟隆 ) Institute of Environment and Sustainable Development in Agriculture, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS) Beijing, China Tel: ; xuyinlong@caas.cn

2 Outline Background Components of Observation on Adaptation Priority Regions for Adaptation Observation Suggestions 3

3 Outline Background Components of Observation on Adaptation Priority Regions for Adaptation Observation Suggestions 3

4 Definition of Climate-smart Agriculture (FAO) Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is an approach that helps to guide actions needed to transform and reorient agricultural systems to effectively support development and ensure food security in a changing climate. CSA aims to tackle three main objectives: sustainably increasing agricultural productivity and incomes; adapting and building resilience to climate change; and reducing and/or removing greenhouse gas 3 emissions, where possible.

5 Background IPCC: WGI WGII WGIII FAO: Increase Yield Adapting to CC Reduce GHG Climate Science Adaptation Mitigation Why Adapt? Hazard Exposure Impacts Vulnerability Risk How to Adapt? How to Implement? Resilience Pathways Prioritizing Nexus Decision-making Co-ordination Financing Technology Monitor & Evaluate

6 Remarks Bottleneck of Climate-smart agriculture is adaptation Bottleneck of agricultural adaptation to climate change is How to Adapt? To overcome the bottleneck of How to Adapt needs breakthrough of theoretical mechanism of adaptation, 3 and then observation on adaptation should be strengthened!

7 Outline Background Components of Observation on Adaptation Priority Regions for Adaptation Observation Suggestions 3

8 Adapt to what? Adaptation to trend and increment Increment Trend Increment

9 Adapt to what? 1. Average trend Warming, increase /decrease of precipitation; Chronic drought; Elevation of CO 2 concentration 2. Extreme events Flooding; Drought; Hot/Cold temperature; Complex extreme events 3. Ecological consequences 4. Social-economic consequences Policies, plans, livelihood, economic structure, infratructure 9

10 2012, North China Plain & Northeast China Leucania Separata Walker(armyworm)

11 2015, Hainan Islands /Solenopsis invicta(red Imported Fire Ant)

12 Outbreak of Cyanophyta in Taihu 12

13 Cascade of Climate Change Impacts Adjustments of Socialeconomic Structure Events 1. Average Trend 111. Ecological Consequences 11. Extreme 13

14 Outline Background Components of Observation on Adaptation Priority Regions for Adaptation Observation Suggestions 3

15 Climate change impacts on distribution & structure of agroecosystem Change of the agriculturepasture eco-tone Change of the north boundary of single cropping and double cropping one year 15 (Xiaoguang Yang et al, 2015)

16 PAES (Priority Adaptation in System s Edge) CC Impacts Inner of the system Different types: Incremental Transformational Different pathways: Self-adaptability More human intervention Observation: Expanded to biophysical and socioeconomic 16 factors

17 Comparison of non-/adoption of Adaptation Technologies

18 Outline Background Components of Observation on Adaptation Priority Regions for Adaptation Observation Suggestions 3

19 Studies on Adaptation Methodology Why Adapt? 1 CC Impacts, Vulnerability, and Risk Assessment Detection & attribution, climate scenarios construction, V&R assessment, comprehensive risk (opportunity, key/urgent risk), etc. 19

20 Studies on Adaptation Methodology How to adapt? 2 Theoretical Adaptation Mechanism (How to Adapt?) System approach, PASE, mathematical expression of adaptation functions, pathways & methods, clarifying priority issues, principle of adaptation technology systems, etc. 20

21 Mitigation is essential~~~~~~ Absorption by earth s surface CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, H 2 O Warming effects

22 From System Approach to View Adaptation~~~~~~ Global: 10 0 Contenental: 10 1 Regional: 10 3 Sub-continental: 10 2 Local: 10 4 Gene: 10 n Absorption by earth s surface CO 2, CH 4, N 2 O, H 2 O Warming effects

23 Studies on Adaptation Methodology How to Implement? 3 Adaptation actions and implementation (How to Implement?) Construction of adaptation technology system, financing, co-ordination, M&E, costeffectiveness analysis, guarantee measures & capacity building, etc. 23

24 Suggestions Methodology Observation Theory Breakthrough Integration of Observation on Bio-physical & Social-economic Factors! 24

25 Observation System on Agricultural Adaptation China s Ministry of Agriculture just launched a project on observation of agricultural adaptation Total stations: Impacts of CC on crops 197--Cropping system & structure 87--Environmental Impacts 76--Soil

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