A Western Reversal Since the Neolithic? The Long-Run Impact of Early Agriculture

Transcription

1 A Western Since the Neolithic? A Western Since the Neolithic? The Long-Run Impact of Early Agriculture Ola Olsson Christopher Paik U Gothenburg & NYU Abu Dhabi Warwick, May 29, 2013

2 Main issue A Western Since the Neolithic? Jared Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies

3 Main issue A Western Since the Neolithic? Jared Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies Western Eurasia could dominate the rest of the world after 1500 AD due to its superior technology, political skills, and resistance to disease

4 Main issue A Western Since the Neolithic? Jared Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies Western Eurasia could dominate the rest of the world after 1500 AD due to its superior technology, political skills, and resistance to disease Ultimate determinant of Western dominance: Superior access to suitable plants and animals for domestication implied a longer history of civilization

5 Main issue A Western Since the Neolithic? Jared Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies Western Eurasia could dominate the rest of the world after 1500 AD due to its superior technology, political skills, and resistance to disease Ultimate determinant of Western dominance: Superior access to suitable plants and animals for domestication implied a longer history of civilization "Naive" version of Diamond-model: Countries with a superior biogeography and longer time since Neolithic transition to agriculture should still be richer today (Olsson and Hibbs, 2005; Putterman and Weil, 2010)

6 A Western Since the Neolithic? Main issue Jared Diamond (1997) Guns, Germs and Steel: The Fates of Human Societies Western Eurasia could dominate the rest of the world after 1500 AD due to its superior technology, political skills, and resistance to disease Ultimate determinant of Western dominance: Superior access to suitable plants and animals for domestication implied a longer history of civilization "Naive" version of Diamond-model: Countries with a superior biogeography and longer time since Neolithic transition to agriculture should still be richer today (Olsson and Hibbs, 2005; Putterman and Weil, 2010) Why then are Iraq, Syria, and Greece poor and Britain and Scandinavia so rich?

7 Uruk 3500 BC A Western Since the Neolithic?

8 A Western Since the Neolithic? Sweden 3500 BC

9 Rome 80 AD A Western Since the Neolithic?

10 Sweden 800 AD A Western Since the Neolithic?

11 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cross-country relationship Log GDP per capita in Time since agricultural transition (Putterman, 2006) Western East Asia Western East Asia Sub Saharan Africa All other Sub Saharan Africa

12 Outline of talk A Western Since the Neolithic?

13 A Western Since the Neolithic? Outline of talk

14 A Western Since the Neolithic? Outline of talk

15 A Western Since the Neolithic? Outline of talk Conclusions

16 Our hypothesis A Western Since the Neolithic? Negative association between time since Neolithic transition to agriculture and current levels of income within Western core

17 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our hypothesis Negative association between time since Neolithic transition to agriculture and current levels of income within Western core Key intermediate link:

18 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our hypothesis Negative association between time since Neolithic transition to agriculture and current levels of income within Western core Key intermediate link: Formal and informal institutions (culture)

19 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our hypothesis Negative association between time since Neolithic transition to agriculture and current levels of income within Western core Key intermediate link: Formal and informal institutions (culture) An early transition was associated with an early emergence and persistence of extractive institutions and norms emphasizing obedience

20 Our ndings A Western Since the Neolithic? We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005)

21 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels:

22 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels: Cross-country analysis on 64 Western countries

23 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels: Cross-country analysis on 64 Western countries Cross-regional analysis among 1,371 European (NUTS3) regions

24 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels: Cross-country analysis on 64 Western countries Cross-regional analysis among 1,371 European (NUTS3) regions Key results:

25 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels: Cross-country analysis on 64 Western countries Cross-regional analysis among 1,371 European (NUTS3) regions Key results: A robust negative association between time since agricultural transition and current income per capita in cross-country sample

26 A Western Since the Neolithic? Our ndings We develop new data on the average transition to agriculture for Western countries, using Pinhasi et al (2005) Empirical investigation on two levels: Cross-country analysis on 64 Western countries Cross-regional analysis among 1,371 European (NUTS3) regions Key results: A robust negative association between time since agricultural transition and current income per capita in cross-country sample appears to have been in place already in 1500 CE

27 Related literature A Western Since the Neolithic? Institutional economics: North (1990); Acemoglu et al (2006); Acemoglu and Johnson (2012), inclusive vs extractive institutions

28 A Western Since the Neolithic? Related literature Institutional economics: North (1990); Acemoglu et al (2006); Acemoglu and Johnson (2012), inclusive vs extractive institutions Biogeography and development: Diamond (1997), Hibbs and Olsson (PNAS, 2004), Olsson and Hibbs (EER, 2005), Putterman (2008), Putterman and Weil (QJE, 2010)

29 A Western Since the Neolithic? Related literature Institutional economics: North (1990); Acemoglu et al (2006); Acemoglu and Johnson (2012), inclusive vs extractive institutions Biogeography and development: Diamond (1997), Hibbs and Olsson (PNAS, 2004), Olsson and Hibbs (EER, 2005), Putterman (2008), Putterman and Weil (QJE, 2010) Previous results from cross-country world samples are potentially driven by successive negative relationships within agricultural core regions

30 A Western Since the Neolithic? Related literature Institutional economics: North (1990); Acemoglu et al (2006); Acemoglu and Johnson (2012), inclusive vs extractive institutions Biogeography and development: Diamond (1997), Hibbs and Olsson (PNAS, 2004), Olsson and Hibbs (EER, 2005), Putterman (2008), Putterman and Weil (QJE, 2010) Previous results from cross-country world samples are potentially driven by successive negative relationships within agricultural core regions Other long-run contributions: Jones (1981), Kennedy (1988), Landes (1998), Pomeranz (2000), Clark (2008), and Morris (2010), Comin et al (2010), Ashraf and Galor (2010)

31 A Western Since the Neolithic? Key new explanatory variable: Average time since agricultural transition (in Western countries)

32 A Western Since the Neolithic? Key new explanatory variable: Average time since agricultural transition (in Western countries) Constructed from 765 carbon-dated Neolithic sites from Pinhasi et al (PLOS Biology, 2005)

33 A Western Since the Neolithic? Key new explanatory variable: Average time since agricultural transition (in Western countries) Constructed from 765 carbon-dated Neolithic sites from Pinhasi et al (PLOS Biology, 2005) Inverse distance-weighting method in ArcGIS

34 A Western Since the Neolithic? Key new explanatory variable: Average time since agricultural transition (in Western countries) Constructed from 765 carbon-dated Neolithic sites from Pinhasi et al (PLOS Biology, 2005) Inverse distance-weighting method in ArcGIS For countries, average among intrastate (NUTS3) regions

35 A Western Since the Neolithic? Key new explanatory variable: Average time since agricultural transition (in Western countries) Constructed from 765 carbon-dated Neolithic sites from Pinhasi et al (PLOS Biology, 2005) Inverse distance-weighting method in ArcGIS For countries, average among intrastate (NUTS3) regions Compare with Putterman (2008): First attested date of transition

36 A Western Since the Neolithic? Agricultural transition in Western core

37 A Western Since the Neolithic? Agricultural transition in Italy (78 sites)

38 A Western Since the Neolithic? Neolithic biogeography

39 Empirical strategy A Western Since the Neolithic? Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i

40 A Western Since the Neolithic? Empirical strategy Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i Y i is log income per capita of country or region i

41 A Western Since the Neolithic? Empirical strategy Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i Y i is log income per capita of country or region i T i is average time since agricultural transition

42 A Western Since the Neolithic? Empirical strategy Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i Y i is log income per capita of country or region i T i is average time since agricultural transition X i is a vector of control variables

43 A Western Since the Neolithic? Empirical strategy Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i Y i is log income per capita of country or region i T i is average time since agricultural transition X i is a vector of control variables Main hypothesis: α 1 < 0

44 A Western Since the Neolithic? Empirical strategy Y i = α 0 + α 1 T i + α 2 X i + ɛ i Y i is log income per capita of country or region i T i is average time since agricultural transition X i is a vector of control variables Main hypothesis: α 1 < 0 T i like an exogenous intervention

45 Control variables A Western Since the Neolithic? Geographical controls :

46 Control variables A Western Since the Neolithic? Geographical controls : Area, Arable land, Altitude, Latitude, Suitability to agriculture

47 Control variables A Western Since the Neolithic? Geographical controls : Area, Arable land, Altitude, Latitude, Suitability to agriculture Neolithic biogeography 10k yrs ago

48 A Western Since the Neolithic? Control variables Geographical controls : Area, Arable land, Altitude, Latitude, Suitability to agriculture Neolithic biogeography 10k yrs ago Historical (empire extension) controls.

49 A Western Since the Neolithic? Control variables Geographical controls : Area, Arable land, Altitude, Latitude, Suitability to agriculture Neolithic biogeography 10k yrs ago Historical (empire extension) controls. Roman 200 AD, Byzantine 500 AD, Ottoman 1600 AD, Warsaw pact, Atlantic coastline to area

50 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cross-country analysis Table 1: Baseline results (1) (2) (3) (4) Log GDP per capita in 2005 Western Europe Roman Average time since agricultural transition *** *** ** *** (0.133) (0.124) (0.210) (0.186) Roman empire 1.219*** Warsaw pact/soviet republic *** *** *** Other controls No Yes Yes Yes Observations R-squared

51 A Western Since the Neolithic? Conditional relationship

52 A Western Since the Neolithic? Historical evolution of relationship Table 3: Historical evolution of relationship (1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) Population density in: GDP per capita in: 1CE 1000 CE 1500 CE 1 CE 1000 CE 1500 CE 1820 CE Av. time sine agr. transition in: -1 CE *** (0.142) (0.014) CE *** (0.125) (0.019) CE * ** *** (0.137) (0.024) (0.033) Obs R-squared

53 A Western Since the Neolithic? Economic growth CE ITA Percent growth of GDP per capita, CE DNK GBR SWE NOR CHE FIN NLD DEU FRA AUT BEL ESP PRT MAR IND GRC Average time since agricultural transition coef = , (robust) se = , t = 7.89 IRN TUR EGY IRQ

54 Regional analysis A Western Since the Neolithic? Table 4: Regional analysis (1) (2) (3) (4) Log Average GDP per capita Average time since agricultural transition *** *** (0.021) (0.033) (0.136) (0.061) 15 geo and hist controls No Yes No Yes Country xed e ects No No Yes Yes Observations 1,371 1,370 1,371 1,370 R-squared

55 A Western Since the Neolithic? Agricultural transition within Italy

56 A Western Since the Neolithic? Regional levels of GDP per capita in Italy

57 A Western Since the Neolithic? Unconditional relationship Log Average GDP per capita UK France Poland Spain Germany Italy Turkey Average time since agricultural transition (in k yrs)

58 External validity A Western Since the Neolithic? Is this relationship only found in the Western core?

59 A Western Since the Neolithic? External validity Is this relationship only found in the Western core? of fortune in America (Acemoglu et al; Easterly and Sokolo )

60 A Western Since the Neolithic? External validity Is this relationship only found in the Western core? of fortune in America (Acemoglu et al; Easterly and Sokolo ) Early agriculture and statehood associated with more autocracy today among former colonies (Hariri, APSR, 2012)

61 A Western Since the Neolithic? External validity Is this relationship only found in the Western core? of fortune in America (Acemoglu et al; Easterly and Sokolo ) Early agriculture and statehood associated with more autocracy today among former colonies (Hariri, APSR, 2012) No similarly detailed data available outside Western core

62 A Western Since the Neolithic? Sub-Saharan Africa Log GDP per capita in MUS CPV BWA NAM AGO SWZ LSO ZWE MOZ ZAF ZMB MWI MDG GAB COG CMR GMB SEN GIN CIV MRT NGA KEN TZA BEN TCD GHA UGA RWA BFA MLI TGO CAF SLE LBR GNB BDI ZAR NER ETH SDN Time since agricultural transition (Putterman, 2006) coef = , (robust) se = , t = 3.73

63 A Western Since the Neolithic? East & Central Asia JPN Log GDP per capita in BRN IDN SGP ROK MYS KHM RUS PHL LKA MNG THA BTN BGD LAO NPL KAZ UZB KGZ TJK TKM CHN Time since agricultural transition (Putterman, 2005) coef = , (robust) se = , t = 1.89

64 A Western Since the Neolithic? Institutional hypothesis

65 A Western Since the Neolithic? Institutions as intermediate link

66 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress)

67 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress) An early transition gave rise to cultural norms towards obedience and technological conservatism whereas a late transition is associated with individualistic norms and technological progress

68 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress) An early transition gave rise to cultural norms towards obedience and technological conservatism whereas a late transition is associated with individualistic norms and technological progress Variant of Ashraf and Galor s (2012) Malthusian model with cultural transmission as in Bisin and Verdier (2000, 2001)

69 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress) An early transition gave rise to cultural norms towards obedience and technological conservatism whereas a late transition is associated with individualistic norms and technological progress Variant of Ashraf and Galor s (2012) Malthusian model with cultural transmission as in Bisin and Verdier (2000, 2001) Agriculture arises in a core area where conformists dominate over non-conformists

70 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress) An early transition gave rise to cultural norms towards obedience and technological conservatism whereas a late transition is associated with individualistic norms and technological progress Variant of Ashraf and Galor s (2012) Malthusian model with cultural transmission as in Bisin and Verdier (2000, 2001) Agriculture arises in a core area where conformists dominate over non-conformists Non-conformists have an exit option and found an agricultural colony

71 A Western Since the Neolithic? Cultural hypothesis Olsson and Paik (2013, in progress) An early transition gave rise to cultural norms towards obedience and technological conservatism whereas a late transition is associated with individualistic norms and technological progress Variant of Ashraf and Galor s (2012) Malthusian model with cultural transmission as in Bisin and Verdier (2000, 2001) Agriculture arises in a core area where conformists dominate over non-conformists Non-conformists have an exit option and found an agricultural colony Successive waves of non-conformist farmers spread northwestward

72 A Western Since the Neolithic? Obedience and Neolithic transition (472 NUTS2 regions) Obedience important quality in child raising (%) Average time since agricultural transition (in k yrs)

73 Conclusions A Western Since the Neolithic? Negative cross-country relationship between time since agricultural transition and current levels of prosperity within Western agricultural core

74 A Western Since the Neolithic? Conclusions Negative cross-country relationship between time since agricultural transition and current levels of prosperity within Western agricultural core in place already in 1500 CE

75 A Western Since the Neolithic? Conclusions Negative cross-country relationship between time since agricultural transition and current levels of prosperity within Western agricultural core in place already in 1500 CE Potential intermediate factor: Institutions and culture

76 A Western Since the Neolithic? Conclusions Negative cross-country relationship between time since agricultural transition and current levels of prosperity within Western agricultural core in place already in 1500 CE Potential intermediate factor: Institutions and culture Future research: Analyzing potential reversals outside Western core