Impact of Climate Change

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1 Impact of Climate Change

2 Water resources Impact of Climate Change Agriculture and food security Forest Coastal areas > Temperature increase > Sea level rise > More rain Species and natural areas Human health

3 Impact on Flora and Fauna Predictability of season Bird and fish migration Change in plant and animal species diversity

4 Impact on Human Systems Water system 1. Poor quality 2. Insufficient water supply and unpredictable timing Health 1. Changes in infectious disease vectors 2. Increase heat related mortality Agriculture and Forestry 1. Change in planting pattern 2. Occurrence of pests and diseases

5 Impact on Natural Systems Enlargement of glacial lakes Thinner sea ice Short freezing season of lake and river ice

6 Impact of Climate Change 20 to 30% species at inc. high risk of extinction (2-3 0 C) Decrease (low latitudes) (1-2 0 C) Additional people with Increased water stress (5 0 C) Increase (mid & high latitudes) (1-2 0 C) (impact is beneficial) 30% loss of coastal wetlands(3-4 0 C) Increased mortality due to heatwaves, floods and drought (1 0 C) Reconfiguration of coastlines and inundation of low-lying areas (5 0 C)

7 Impact of Climate Change in Asia

8 Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability Decrease in Freshwater availability in Central, South, East and South- East Asia, About 2.5 to 10% decrease in crop yield (2020s) and 5 to 30% (2050s)

9 Future climate change is likely to affect agriculture, risk of hunger and water resource scarcity with enhanced climate variability About 49 M people could go hungry in the next 20 to 30 years Loss of lives and of coastal ecosystems very likely due to sea-level rise and flooding Sea-water intrusion and declining river runoff is likely to increase the habitat of brackish water fisheries

10 Marine and coastal ecosystems in Asia are likely to be affected by sea-level rise and temperature increases Coastal inundation is likely to seriously affect the aquaculture and infrastructure Stability of wetlands, mangroves and coral reefs likely to be increasingly threatened Between 24%and 30% of the coral reefs likely to be lost during the next 10 years to 30 years

11 Future climate change is likely to continue to adversely affect human health in Asia Disease primarily associated with climate change are expected in South and South- East Asia Increases in coastal water temperature would exacerbate the abundance and/or toxicity of cholera in south Asia

12 Climate Change and other development issues

13 Climate Change and its linkages with Sustainable Development

14 SD and Climate Change Sustainable development policies Alternative development pathways Sectoral environment/ economic policies Institutional/managerial changes Innovation/ technological change Climate Climate change change policies Sustainable development Avoided climate change damage Ancillary benefits/costs Spillovers/trade effects Innovation/technological change Two-way linkages between climate change and sustainable development. Source: Swart et.al (2003)

15 Efforts to cope with the impacts of climate change and attempts to promote sustainable development share common goals and determinants Access to resources Equity in the distribution of resources (i.e. human and social capital) Access to risk-sharing mechanisms Abilities of decisionsupport mechanisms to cope with uncertainty

16 Nonetheless, some development activities exacerbate climate-related vulnerabilities High rise building in urban areas Processing plants Land use change/mining in natural forests (Irresponsible mining) Road development

17 Climate change will result in net costs into the future; these costs will grow over time By 2080, it is likely that : 1.1 to 3.2 billion people will be experiencing water scarcity 200 to 600 million will be hungry 2 to 7 million more per year affected by coastal flooding

18 Climate change will impede nations abilities to achieve sustainable development pathways as measured, for example, by long-term progress towards the Millennium Development Goals

19 Damage estimates as % of global GDP

20 Climate Change and its linkages with Disaster Risk Management

21 CLIMATE CHANGE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT CONVERGENCE DISASTER RISK MANAGEMENT CLIMATE CHANGE Geophysical Hazards Climate/Weather Related Hazards Increase in Temp. Sea Level Rise Extreme Weather Events Risk Reduction Measures Adaptation Measures Mitigation Measures