Inclusive Green Growth in Africa: Water stressed food and energy. Belynda Petrie OneWorld Sustainable Investments

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1 Inclusive Green Growth in Africa: Water stressed food and energy Belynda Petrie OneWorld Sustainable Investments

2 Resource demand and climate are game changers for the political economy of water Patterns of water demand are shifting urbanisation, pop growth, economic activity Water pollution (agriculture run off, industry) will be as big a bone of contention as abstraction Changes threaten water security Climate change will further challenge nexus management through increased water variability and intensified weather events (floods, droughts) Trade offs are under examined Governance arrangements come into sharp focus

3 There are global demands for food from, and local demands for food security in Africa With approximately 60% of the worlds remaining arable land, Africa is poised to achieve significant economic growth through agricultural development and other rural land uses (AGRA 2013) "Globally, food consumption has increased from 2,250 calories per person per day in 1961 to 2,750 calories per person per day in 2007, and is projected to increase to 3,070 calories per person per day by 2050 (Kastner et al. 2012; Alexandratos and Bruinsma 2012 p. 51)

4 More water will be needed through sustainable water flows than current analysis is showing Mozambican agricultural production must rise to meet demand Million metric tons M illio n M etric Tons Agricultural Production History plus Forecast AGP [Working] (Mozamzbique, Crop) By 2050, following a Business as Usual (BAU) economic growth path and trends in fertility, the Mozambican population will rise to 52 million people Year Source: OneWorld, based on International Futures V6.61 platform, U. Denver

5 Future energy demand is for grid power Over 1.3 billion people lack access to electricity (bulk in Africa) By 2035, global energy consumption is expected to increase by 35% Water consumption by the energy sector will increase by 85% Biomass is the main source of energy Economic performance responds to grid or electrical energy The level of urbanisation is a key driver of residential energy demand (residential energy consumption and the mix of fuels used is very different in urban versus rural areas)

6 Today, the Zambezi, shared by 8 countries, seems to have an endless supply of water Largest river basin in SADC 8 countries & 30 million people Largest river basin in SADC 8 countries & 30 million people 20% of runoff used High degree of seasonal and spatial variability means that some areas have high demand relative to availability Multiple hydropower development Expanding irrigation Urbanisation Industrial Multiple hydropower development development Expanding irrigation Urbanisation Industrial development Embryonic governance arrangements ZAMCOM est Treaty not ratified by Zambia Regional Cooperation and sovereign interests

7 The Limpopo, shared by 4 countries is characterized by water scarcity closed basin status Mostly semi arid with highly a variable climate Drought and Flooding Land use patterns, ecosystems, and social, economic and governance systems Large rural populations

8 Negotiating over water resources, energy and food production is familiar in the well developed Nile Basin Most riparians suffer from water scarcity High dependence on agricultural; Food production cannot meet demand from growing populations Insufficient energy supply limits development Negotiations over water resources upstream downstream disputes with Egypt, the powerful hegemon in alliance with Sudan Shifting financial and political power and unilateral construction of the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD), is altering the state of play Prospect of power trade: Sudan has confirmed its support for the GERD in exchange for electricity imports from Ethiopia; Egypt has recently agreed to conduct joint studies on the dam (4 th meeting of the tripartite meeting on the GERD between Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt) despite the existing disputes over water resources. Trade of food produced on fertile soils in Ethiopia with foreign is an option to alleviate insecurities in the WEF Nexus

9 Abundance & sovereign interests obscured explicit trade off analysis; climate and growth demands this Water scarcity is a feature of the Nile and Limpopo, Zambia is catching up Political will for cooperation is strong in the south but economic growth is rapid (Angola 7% ave growth, Mozambique 7% in 2013) and cooperation costs Treaties typically do not define water allocations and sovereign interests dominate Analysis of hydropower and climate in the Zambezi shows that hydropower is impacted by climate and competing demand (irrigation expansion) Kariba is unlikely to reach planned production Batoka Gorge can t meet the target under any scenario even in a wetting scenario, the mean generation will be 10% lower than target levels when irrigation and irrigation demands are considered.

10 Scenarios enable a glimpse into the future Business as Usual continuation of current and recent historical trends in the region no policy change or changes in global env. SADC Integration regional initiative to move forward more rapidly on the development of shared resources particulalry in the energy sector no major change in global env. Grand Deal a significant global commitment to sustainable development, which further supports regional efforts at integration and shared development The Ideal State?

11 Development characteristics and climate BAU SADC integration Grand Deal GDP per capita growth Low Med High Population growth Highest Lower Lowest Hydropower and irrigation investment projections inform future scenarios Slower Faster Much faster Other Clean energy investment Limited Some Rapid Investment in energy intensive industry Current trends Faster Faster, but with better technology Regional trade Limited Large Large Grand Inga No Yes, but later? Yes, but sooner? Technology learning for renewable energy Moderate Moderate Fast Source: Climate Change Assessment of the Energy Water Nexus in the Zambezi River Basin and SAPP Project

12 For irrigation, the difference is the year in which the identified irrigation projects and high level potential irrigation will be reached Development Future BAU SADC Int Grand Deal Year when identified projects have been realised Year when high level irrigation potential has been realised Source: Climate Change Assessment of the Energy Water Nexus in the Zambezi River Basin and SAPP Project

13 Managing the WEF nexus requires dynamic, ahead, specific and interrogative arrangements Institutional arrangements are ahead of the pace of change (cross border and cross sectoral accountability) Agreements are specific, futures oriented and flexible Policy is integrated and defines and enables incentives Water benefits and trade offs are clear Difficult questions are routinely raised and answered

14 Change and evolution always raises difficult questions for those threatened by the answers.. Governance across sectors by one of them? Parallel but integrated governance arrangements: ministries for foreign affairs, finance, economic and development planning, green growth? Regional cooperation and legally binding agreements a paradigm shift?