1/16/2013. Lessons Learned from the Drought of Milk Fat and Milk Protein Relationships (Source: Hoard s Dairyman) Looking Ahead to 2013

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1 Lessons Learned from the Drought of IL Dairy Summit Looking Ahead to 2013 Milk prices targeting $18 to19 (class III CME) Forage prices are high Legume/grass forage at 1.40 cent per RFQ point Corn silage at $60 to 70 a ton (33% DM) Corn at $7.00 per bushel Fuzzy cottonseed is breakeven at $330/ton Soybean meal is bearish at $450 / ton Milk supply may decline in U.S. Topics for Today s Discussion The dairy outlook in 2013 Hutjens Golden Rule Feed economics for Drought factors Hutjens Golden Rule Never give up milk 1 lb of dry matter cost $0.14 Milk price is $0.20 per pound Good cows produce 2 lb of milk per 1 lb of DM Profit: $0.26 cents per cow per pound of DM Milk Fat and Milk Protein Relationships (Source: Hoard s Dairyman) Fat % Protein % Protein vs Fat Fat vs Protein Ayrshire % 1.23 Brown Swiss % 1.22 Guernsey % 1.35 Holstein % 1.23 Jersey % 1.28 Value of Milk Components (Prices for Nov, 2012) Holstein herd: 70 lb milk, 3.5% fat, and 2.9% true protein corrected to 3.7% fat and 3.0% true protein 70 lb x 0.2% point increase = 0.14 lb of milk fat x $2.02/lb fat = $ lb x 0.1% point increase milk protein = 0.07 lb protein x $3.72 / lb = $0.26 Profit potential: $0.54 / cow / day 1

2 Drought-Stress Risks Shortage of forages Corn grain may be light weight and harder (finer processing) Lower quality corn silage Less starch in corn silage Higher NDFD Nitrate levels Aflatoxin risks Fresh Corn Silage Samples (1,386 samples--july 1- Aug 7, 2012) Moisture CP ADF NDF NDFD30 Ash EE (fat) Starch Sugar NFC Normal 64.9% 8.8% 28.1% 45.0% 4.3% 3.2% 32.0% 1.0% 41.3% Average 74.8% 10.1% 31.1% 53.7% 59.0% 6.3% 2.2% 10.5% 7.0% 28.5% StDev 6.8% 2.0% 3.9% 6.1% 4.2% 1.7% 0.4% 9.5% 4.2% 7.5% Min 61.3% 6.1% 23.2% 41.4% 50.7% 3.0% 1.4% 0.1% 0.9% 13.4% Max 88.4% 14.1% 39.0% 66.0% 67.3% 9.7% 3.0% 29.5% 15.5% 43.5% Forage Alternatives for 2013 Buying drought stress corn silage Adding straw or corn stalks to the ration Harvesting annual /winter small grain in the fall Buy a forage extender (fuzzy cottonseed, corn gluten feed, citrus pulp, beet pulp, soy hulls) Forage Inventory Today Plan on 30 lb DM/cow (includes 5 to 7% shrink) results in 930 lb per month (includes dry cows) Add 30% for replacement heifer 7 tons of forage dry matter per cow and replacement unit annually If You Are Short of Forage Winter wheat/small grain harvested as forage Cull target cows Reproductive problems cows (long DIM) High somatic cell cows Low producing index cows Sell bottom end heifers (genomics tool) Buy forages now Stretch with by-product feeds Lessons Learned for 2013 Small grain forages planted in Aug/Sept Cover crop for erosion 1 to 2 tons of dry matter per acre Sorghum/sudan grass planted in June/July Cut every 30 days for quality forage 1 to 1 ½ tons dry matter per acre Responds to manure/ferilizer Soybean forage cut at pod stage Corn stalks for heifers and dry cows 2

3 Fiber composition of selected cereal-grain forages (NRC, 2001) Forage NDF ADF Lignin Lignin (Headed) % of DM % of NDF Oat silage Barley silage Triticale silage Wheat silage When to Plant Fall Oats? Mid to Late July Use forage-type cultivar (such as ForagePlus Oats) Late Planting: Beyond 1 st week of August Consider using earlier-maturing, grain-type cultivars Late Planted Oats: 12 August Concentrations of NDF from oat forages planted on August 1 and harvested on five dates throughout the fall at Marshfield, WI (Coblentz et al., 2012). Yields of DM for four oat cultivars planted on about 12 August; data represent 2-year means from a study conducted at Prairie du Sac, WI (Coblentz and Walgenbach, 2010). Fall-Grown Oat Forages: Cultivars, Planting Dates, and Expected Yields by Wayne Coblentz and Mike Bertram, University of Wisconsin Forage Team Fall-Grown Oat Forages: Unique Quality Characteristics by Wayne Coblentz and Mike Bertram, University of Wisconsin Forage Team Standing DM Concentrations Standing DM concentrations for fall-grown oat forages harvested on 5 dates throughout the fall at Marshfield, WI (Coblentz et al., 2011). All forages were planted on August 1, and means represent 3-year averages. The red horizontal line ( ) represents the minimum concentration of DM for satisfactory silage fermentation (30%). Oats vs Wheat Yield comparisons of (2) winter wheat and (4) oat cultivars across three harvest dates during at Prairie du Sac, WI (Coblentz and Walgenbach, 2010). Cultivars were established on 11 August 2006 and 13 August Fall-Grown Oat Forages: Cultivars, Planting Dates, and Expected Yields by Wayne Coblentz and Mike Bertram, University of Wisconsin Forage Team Fall-Grown Oat Forages: Cultivars, Planting Dates, and Expected Yields by Wayne Coblentz and Mike Bertram, University of Wisconsin Forage Team 3

4 Key Factor To Consider Be aware of the potential for herbicide carryover Availability of oat seed Rain and soil moisture status Early freeze vs. an adequate growing period Yield and quality of soybean forage as affected by harvest maturity Modified from Soybeans for Hay or Silage by Dr.DanUndersander Harvesting Soybean Silage Harvest soybeans at R3 stage, when one of the four top nodes with a fully-developed leaf has a 3/16-inch-long pod. Wilt forage to 35% to 45% dry matter before ensiling depending on storage unit. Chop at 3/8-inch theoretical length of cut (TLC). Add an inoculant (similar to an effective alfalfa/legume inoculant) Yields in drought year 1 to 2 tons/acre Dan Undersander, Kevin Jarvik, Tom Anderson, Nick Schneider, and Lee Milligan Nutrient Value Nutrient Straw Corn Stalk Crude protein (%) NDF (%) Lignin (%) 8.8 na NE-lact (Mcal/lb) TDN (%) Straw and Corn Stalk Concerns High fiber, fill factors, and slow digestion Nitrate levels in corn stalks Limit to < 3 lb/cow (5% ration, 10% of the forage) Higher levels in dry cow (30%) & older heifer rations (25 to 30%) Processing to avoid sorting Treatment Guidelines (2012 Neb Beef Cattle Report, pp ) Addition of 5% calcium oxide (quicklime) in 50% DM corn stover Cost of calcium oxide was $230 a ton while limestone was $100 a ton Treated corn stover cost was $80/ton; corn stover was priced at $64/ton 30 days for treatment to be complete 4

5 Beef Cattle Results (NE) 12.5% improvement in digestibility compared to untreated corn stover Marbling scores were similar Profit per steer was +$36.30 when corn was priced at $6/bushel Beef Cattle Results (IA State Univ. Animal Industry Report 2011) 5% treated stover with calcium oxide 20% of the ration dry matter Ration digestibility Control Treated Dry matter* 75.5 a 83.2 b *P < 0.05 NDF ADF Use of Calcium Oxide to Improve Digestibility of Corn Stalks (U of IL, 2012) Treatment was complete in 10 days Feed gets warm (110 F) ph over 8 Bagged the treated feed, mixed calcium oxide with the corn stalks prior to adding water What is Aflatoxin A fungi (Aspergillus) produces aflatoxin Aflatoxin is a cancer-causing agent in humans and animals Mold colonize on corn kernels caused by ear rot or ear mold The mold is olive-green colored mold Why is Aflatoxin a Concern for Lactating Cows? FDA has indicated milk over 0.5 ppb (parts per billion) cannot be used for human consumption Lactating cows excrete 1 to 2% of aflatoxin in milk (varies by metabolism of the cow) Rations over 20 ppb times 2% is 0.4 ppb (cow by cow variation) Aflatoxin Summary July-September 27, 2012 Level Corn Corn (ppb) Grain Silage DDG s 0 to to to to to > Count

6 Maximum Levels of Aflatoxin 20 ppb for lactating dairy cattle 100 ppb for breeding beef, swine, & dairy 200 ppb for swine 300 ppb for beef steers Strategies if Milk is High (Hot) with Aflatoxin Test your feeds to determine which feeds (corn, corn silage, fuzzy cottonseed, and/or corn by-product feed is a problematic feed Remove any at-risk feed immediately, milk can clear in 48 hours Have your milk coop monitor your milk weekly to be sure it is safe Strategies with Aflatoxin-Contaminated Corn Grain and/or Silage Dilute down with wholesome forages and grains Add an additive (flow agent) Ammoniate the corn grain Be aware of corn by-product risks Clean the corn (fines and broken kernels) Mycotoxin Binders Clay-based compounds such as bentonite, zeolite, and calcium aluminosilicate (50 to 225 gram/cow/day) when dealing with aflatoxin Yeast cell wall extracts (also call MOS and glucomannans) are effective when dealing with T-2 toxins, DON, and zearalenone (10 grams/cow/day) Management Considerations Testing feed is difficult as sampling is critical when measuring ppm Do not store corn with aflatoxin as high moisture corn, dry it down to < 14% moisture Wet corn and warm weather favor aflatoxin development Screen out fines and broken kernels 6

7 Corn Silage Toxin Summary July-September 27, 2012 Corn Grain Toxin Summary July-September 27, 2012 Mycotoxin Levels of Dairy Cattle Aflatoxin < 20 ppb DON (vomitoxin) < 6.0 ppm T-2 toxin < 100 ppb Zearalenone < 300 ppb Fumonisin < 25 ppm ppb = parts per billion ppm = parts per million Feed Risks at Various Mold Counts (Penn State DAS 92-21) Air dry spore count/g Feeding comments Under 500,000 Low count ½ to 1 million Relatively safe 1 to 2 million Discount feed by 5% 2 to 3 million Observe cattle, discount 3 to 5 million Dilute, discount, and observe Over 5 million Discontinue using Energy Value of Corn for Ruminants (Penn State 93-21) Bu wt Clean corn Moldy corn (lb/bu) % Feeding Metrics Feed costs per day: limited value Feed costs per lb: reflects milk yield, shrink, and feed costs Feed costs per lb of dry matter: reflect feed ingredients selection Income over feed costs: reflects profit margin Feed efficiency: evaluates feed conversion to milk yield 7

8 Feeds Feed Prices Used $/lb DM Corn silage ($60 per ton) 0.10 Alfalfa ($250 per ton) 0.14 Corn grain ($7.00 / bushel) 0.14 Fuzzy cottonseed ($350 / ton) 0.19 Corn gluten feed ($220 / ton) 0.12 Soybean meal ($475 / ton) 0.26 Corn distillers grain ($250 / ton) Feed Benchmarks lb DM $/ lb DM $ / day Forages Grain energy By-product Protein supp Min/vit/additive Ration building 0.10 Total Feeding Economics Feed costs per cow per day $7.05 Feed cost per lb DM $0.14 Milk Production 80 lb 70 lb Feed cost per cwt (80 lb) $ 8.81 $10.07 Income over feed costs ($20) $11.19 $ 9.93 Feed efficiency (lb milk/lb DM) Economics of Feed Efficiency (70 lb milk, 14 cent lb DM) Feed efficiency DMI Difference (lb milk/lb DM) (lb/day) (savings/day) $ $ Take Home Messages will be a challenging year High producing cows are profit centers Make good decisions which are the same with $16 or $22 milk Focus on forages, by-products, feed additive selection, and starch as economical and healthy strategies 8