DAILY MARKET REPORT 30 AUGUST 2018

Transcription

1 DAILY MARKET REPORT 30 AUGUST 2018 Unigrain (Pty) Ltd Tel. No. : Fax. No. : Economic Indicators Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change Rand/Dollar Euro/Dollar Gold Platinum Brent Crude JSE Top Dow Jones Indus Avg The changes in the table above is from previous Safex close (12h00) The rand is weaker this morning and is trading around R14.39/$ this morning despite the fact that the dollar is also slightly weaker. South African equities posted some more gains with the JSE Top40 ending 0.27% higher yesterday. South African producer inflation data is due today. In the US the dollar is slightly weaker and is trading around to the euro once again this morning. US equities posted some more gains with the Dow ending 0.23% higher in the daytime session and this morning the Dow futures are 0.15% lower. Commodity prices are mixed with precious metal prices slightly lower with gold and platinum 0.03% and 0.21% lower than the levels seen yesterday while crude oil prices are 1.56% higher than the levels seen yesterday. US Dollar/South African Rand Key data releases: South African grain export data South African PPI South African M3 money supply and PSCE European Union consumer confidence US initial jobless claims

2 International Market Quote at 12h00 previous day Current quote Change % Change CME Sep maize CME Dec maize CME Sep wheat KCBT Sep wheat KCBT Dec wheat Matif Sep wheat (Euro/ton) CME Nov soybeans Sep CME maize R/ton Dec CME maize R/ton Sep CME wheat R/ton Sep KCBT wheat R/ton Dec KCBT wheat R/ton Nov CME soybeans R/ton The changes in the table above is from Safex close (12h00) Corn US maize prices ended flat to slightly higher in the daytime session yesterday with the spillover strength from the higher US wheat prices adding some support. This morning the electronic maize prices are higher. The weekly US export sales figures of maize to be released today are expected to range between and 1.3 million tons old and new crops combined. The weather forecast for the US Midwest expects some more rainfall in the week ahead with some heavy rainfall amounts forecasted for the western parts of the Midwest. On the technical chart for December CME maize we see that the market traded both sides of unchanged with prices finding some support around $3.55 and pulling off the lows into the close. Soybeans CME soybean contracts posted some gains in the session yesterday with some short covering and technical buying that was seen with the market pulling off the 6-week low. This morning the electronic prices are also higher. The weekly US export seals figures of soybeans to be released today are expected to range between and 1.25 million tons old and new crops combined, On the technical chart for November CME soybeans we see that the market did get some support around $8.30 and prices pulled slightly higher into the close. Resistance is seen at $8.58 and $8.74/bushel. Wheat US wheat prices surged higher in the daytime session yesterday on short covering with rumors once again doing the rounds that Russia might limit exports. This morning the electronic wheat prices are also higher. The Russian government indicated that they will discuss the current market situation and export plans in their next meeting scheduled for the 3 rd of September. The weekly US export sales figures of wheat to be released today are expected to range between and tons. Statistics Canada will release their estimates on Friday. The average market expectation of the 20218/19 Canadian wheat crop is seen at 30.6 million tons which is below the USDA estimate of 32.5 million tons. On the technical chart for December KCBT wheat we see that the market surged higher ending the day at the session high and this morning electronic prices are also higher. Resistance is seen around $5.56-$5.59/bushel. 2

3 US cumulative rainfall forecast for week ahead (inches) US 6-10 temperature forecast US 6-10 Day rainfall forecast 3

4 South African Market 29 August 2018 Maize South African maize prices opened the day slightly higher with some buying interest that was seen after that with the weaker rand seen during our session adding some support. December white maize opened the day at R2377 and the market traded to an intraday high of R2386 but some late selling was seen with yellow maize leading the way lower. December white maize traded to an intraday low of R2360 with the market ending the day close to the session low. The weekly South African producer deliveries of maize for the week ending the 24 th of August indicate that tons of maize was delivered including tons of white maize and tons of yellow maize. US maize prices are higher this morning and the rand is trading around R14.37/$ which is supporting parity prices. Our market sold off late in the session yesterday but the higher parity prices seen this morning could be supportive for local maize. Wheat South African wheat contracts opened the day higher with some more buying that was seen after that with the weaker rand providing some support. December wheat opened the day at R4360 and the market briefly traded to an intraday low of R4348 before some more buying was seen. The rand traded as high as R14.40/$ which supported our market and December wheat traded as high as R4392 and the market ended the day off the session highs. US wheat prices are sharply higher than the levels seen yesterday and the rand is unchanged to slightly weaker resulting in significantly higher parity prices which should be supportive for local wheat prices in the session today. Oilseeds White Maize MTM Change High Low Sep Dec Mar Yellow Maize Sep Dec Mar Wheat Sep Dec Mar Sunflower Sep Dec Soybeans Sep Dec CME Corn Sep Dec South African soybean contracts opened the day lower with some more follow through selling that was seen after the opening. December soybean contracts opened the day at R4515 and traded to a high of R4520 with our market coming under pressure after that despite the weaker rand. December soybean contracts traded to a low of R4480 ending the day rather close to the session low. 4

5 South African sunflower seed contracts opened the day lower with some buying/short covering that was seen after the opening. December sunflower seed contracts started the day at R4995 and traded to a low of R4985 with some buying that was seen after that. The weaker rand also added some support. December sunflower seed contracts managed to erase all the early losses that was seen and traded to a high of R5057 but the market ended the day well off the session highs. US soybean contracts are higher than the levels see at Safex close yesterday and the rand is slightly weaker supporting parity prices. The higher parity prices could be supportive for local sunflower seed and soybean contracts in the session today. Weather conditions Rainfall forecast for week ahead Technical Graphs Safex Dec maize prices CME Dec corn prices 5

6 Daily MAWZ8 Cndl, MAWZ8, Trade Price 2018/08/29, , , , N/A, N/A SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /08/29, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /08/29, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /08/29, SMA, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), /08/29, /12/ /09/12 (JHB) Price ZAR T Auto RSI, MAWZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Wilder Smoothing 2018/08/29, Value ZAR T December 2017 January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 Sep 18 Auto 6

7 Daily CZ8 Cndl, CZ8, Trade Price, 2018/08/30, / 2, / 4, / 2, / 2, +2, (+0.56%), SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 40, 2018/08/30, / 8+, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 9, 2018/08/30, / 4+, SMA, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 100, 2018/08/30, / /01/ /09/13 (CHG) Price USc Bsh / / / / RSI, CZ8, Trade Price(Last), 14, Exponential, 2018/08/30, /8 Value USc Bsh January 2018 February 2018 March 2018 April 2018 May 2018 June 2018 July 2018 August 2018 Sep 18 Auto 7