Country Paper Presentation BANGLADESH

Transcription

1 Country Paper Presentation BANGLADESH Current State of Climate Information Application in the Agriculture Sector Dr. A. B. M. Zahid Hossain Senior Scientific Officer Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BRRI) Joydebpur, Gazipur-1701 Climate Services Users Forum for Agriculture (CSUF-Ag2) September 2016, Nay Pyi Taw, Myanmar 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 1

2 Introduction Bangladesh is a South Asian county lies between 23 34ʹ and 26 38ʹ N latitude and between 88 41ʹ and 92 41ʹ E longitude. The country is bounded by India on the west, north, and northeast; Myanmar on the southeast; and the Bay of Bengal on the south. 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 2

3 Introduction q Bangladesh is agrarian country with diversified eco-system q Cereal production has increased from about 10 million tons in 1970s to more than 34.7 million tons in Having fluctuations due to natural disasters. q Since independence in 1971, the country has suffered from nine droughts of major magnitude (Source DAE). q Coastal areas of more than 30% of the cultivable lands of the country. q About 53% of the coastal areas are affected by salinity. 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 3

4 Introduction q Submerse ecosystem in Barisal, Khulna, Jessore, Mymensigh, Sylhet, Comilla and Chittagong district. q Farmers need to adapt with quick growing, diversified climate resilient cropping pattern and new adaptive technologies. q Short duration rice variety, high value quick growing horticulture and alternative inter cropping approach as a risk proof measures. q Cropping on floating beds > Double cropping pattern > Create livelihood opportunities 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 4

5 Climate of Bangladesh Seasons Period Weather Events Rainfall Summer (Premonsoon) March to Nor wester, Thunder, 19% May Tornado, Hail, Cyclone, Heat Rainy Season (Southwest Monsoon) Autumn (Postmonsoon) Winter (Northeast June September October November December February Wave Heavy rain, Monsoon Depression, Flood Monsoon) Three cropping seasons: (Based on Climate) q Rabi or Dry season crops q Kharif-I or Pre-monsoon crops, and q Kharif-II or Rainy season crops 71% Cyclone, Tornado 8% Abnormal Dryness (Drought), Cold Wave 2% 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 5

6 Observational stations in BMD 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 6

7 Existing Weather Forecasting System Ø In Bangladesh, weather forecasting on cyclones, storms, tornadoes, etc. are mainly providedbythe Storm Warning Center (SWC) Ø Weather forecast for 24 hours including rainfall and temperature for general mass to enable them for scheduling everyday affairs. Ø Forecasts of Dhaka and neighborhood is given twice daily Ø Weather forecast for 7 days including rainfall, temperature, sunshine hour, wind speed, heat wave and cold wave for farmers for better planning of agricultural activities Ø Disseminate weather based agromet advisory to the on line for the farmers in block/villagelevel for efficient farm management. 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 7

8 Present status of Agro-meteorological services of BMD Installation of agromet instruments and data collection has been started from Following data are archiving in the agro-met Division of BMD 1) 7 days accumulated rainfall 2) Rainy days in the week 3) Air temperature with Maximum & Minimum temperature 4) Global Solar Radiation 5) Bright Sun shine hour 6) Soil moisture at different depths (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 cm) 7) Soil temperature at different depths (5, 10, 20, 30, 50 cm) 8) Evaporation 9) Pan water temperature 10) Wind at 2m. height 11) Grass minimum temperatur 12) Estimation of evapotranspiration with Penman-Monteith equation 13) Relative humidity 14) Heat and cold wave 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 8

9 Climatic Factors that Affect Agricultural Activities vtemperature (Influence the all plants growth processes) vair (The oxygen and carbon dioxide in the air are of particular importance to the physiology of plants) vwind velocity (This factor affect the rate of photosynthesis, growth and yield) vrainfall/ precipitation (Affect the dominance of certain types of vegetation as wellas crop growth and yield) vsunshine hour (Essential in the production of chlorophyll and in photosynthesis, the process by which plants manufacture food in the form of sugar (carbohydrate) vrelative humidity (Affects the opening and closing of the stomata which regulates loss of water from the plant through transpiration as well as photosynthesis) 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 9

10 Dependence of Evapotranspiration upon Different Climatological factors 1) Sunshine 2) Temperature 3) Humidity 4) Wind speed 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 10

11 Crop Temperature Requirements Crop temperature requirement plays a vital role to determine the land suitability of the crops. q Mean temp below 20 0 C or Min temp less than15 0 C is the suitability for temperate crops such as wheat, potato, mustard and lentil. q Mean temp below 20 0 C may interfere with the pollination in Aman paddy. q Min temp below 15 0 C retard the early vegetative growth in HYV boro paddy. q Occurrence of max temp above 35 0 C can prevents pollination and at the panicle initiation results sterile heads (mainly HYV Boro) 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 11

12 Drought & Climate Variability Time (Duration) Precipitation deficiency (amount, intensity, timing) Reduced infiltration, runoff, deep percolation, and groundwater recharge High temp., high winds, low relative humidity, greater sunshine, less cloud cover Soil water deficiency Increased evaporation and transpiration Plant water stress, reduced biomass and yield Meteorological Drought Agricultural Drought Reduced stream flow, inflow to reservoirs, lakes, and ponds; Reduced wetlands Irrigation Impacts: Crop Yield 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 12 Hydro. Drought

13 Climate Change Impact v Summer are becoming hotter (High temperature) v Monsoon irregular with untimely rainfall v Increased river flow and inundation during monsoon v Heavy rainfall over short period causing water logging v Increased frequency, intensity and recurrence of flood v Heavy rain and the onrush water from the hills triggered a flash flood during pre-monsoon season v v v v v v Crop damage due to flash flood Very little rainfall in dry period Crop failure due to drought Prolonged cold spell Salinity intrusion along the coast region Pest infestation 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 13

14 PICTORIAL PRESENTATION OF DIFFERENT ADAPTATION OPTIONS ACTIVITIES Floating Garden 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 14

15 Charlands 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 15

16 Haor area 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 16

17 Paddy fields damaged by flush flood

18 Application of Forecast Information and Advisories to address several risks to minimizecrop losses A) Drought and advisories to avert the risk(drought) Advisories given to farmers mainly by DAE and NARS to avert the risk are shown below: Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk Aus rice Dry spell in March/April Timely/delayed sowing T. Aman rice Dry spell in July/October Delayed transplanting, application of supplementary irrigation Boro (winter) rice Wheat Rabi crops Inadequate soil moisture at transplanting Inadequate soil moisture at sowing Inadequate soil moisture at sowing Early/delayed transplanting coinciding rainfall Sowing under minimum tillage to exploit residual soil moisture Timely sowing under minimum tillage to exploit residual soil moisture 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 18

19 B) Flood and advisories to avert the risk (flood) Flood mainly affects aus/t. aman/ boro (winter) rice, jute and summer vegetables. Crop Kind of risk Advisories to avert the risk Aus rice Flood at harvest Advanced harvest at physiological maturity T. Aman rice Chance of late flood Boro (winter) rice Flash flood at harvest Early transplanting of HYV/ late transplanting of LYV of rice Transplanting short duration varieties for early harvest Jute Early flood Early harvest through early sowing Summer vegetables Early flood Sowing short duration vegetables/cultivation of vegetables at homesteads 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 19

20 C) Late blight disease and advisories to avert the disease q Fog is a common phenomenon in winter season. q Moderate to thick fog may cause late blight disease in potato crops. q Agro-met division forecast fog and farmers are advised to apply fungicides for potato crops before persistence thick fog events. q Foggy weather and temperature of 180C or more that prevailed in December January favored the incidence of the disease causing production 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute loss of potato. 20

21 Future scope to enhance the Agrometeorological services a) Improvement of seasonal forecast b) Integrated irrigation management c) Integrated drought management & Early Warning d) Damage assessment due to natural disaster e) Early agro meteorological Crop yield estimation f) Crop suitability map with agro ecological zone g) Pest and disease control and management h) Selecting Suitable time for applying fertilizer & pesticides 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 21

22 Collaboration program between BMD and Bangladesh Rice Research Institute (BBRI) q Recently BMD organized 10 days training program on Linux and WRF model for a group of Scientists of BRRI. q With the help of BMD, BRRI has established an Agrometeorological and Crop Modeling Laboratory to forecast weather for rice cultivation in Bangladesh q Now BRRI is capable to run WRF model and forecast hourly 7 days important weather parameters which are influenced the productivity of rice crop q Some collaborative research will also be conducted in the field level 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 22

23 Conclusions ü Bangladesh is considerably vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. There is thus an urgent need to address the climate change and variability issues holistically. ü In developing countries like Bangladesh, climate change could represent an additional stress on ecological and socioeconomic systems that are already facing tremendous pressures due to rapid urbanization, industrialization and economic development. ü Increased temperatures will impact agricultural production. Higher temperatures reduce the total duration of a crop cycle by inducing early flowering, thus shortening the grain fill period. The shorter the crop cycle, the lower the yield per unit area. ü To cope with climate change more effectively, it is necessary to identify integrated adaptation and mitigation options for a range of agroecosystems so as to enable a favorable policy environment for the implementation of the framework. 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 23

24 ü BMD and Agro-meteorology and crop modeling lab in BRRI can play a vital role to improve the national food security where it is under tremendous stress due to high population density, climate change, frequent attack by natural disaster and so many other issues. We want to work together to combat this upcoming challenges. 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 24

25 Recommendations 1. Research need to be conducted based on weather forecasting for rice cultivation under different agricultural management practices 2. Need some technical assistances for the research of Water Management on Microclimate and Yield Physiology in Irrigated Rice in Semi-arid Environments of Bangladesh 3. The South Asia Meteorological Research Centre may be urged to upgrade research on developing Regional Climate Models (RCM) for the member countries of the region including Bangladesh. 4. Cultivation of crop varieties that are resistant to lodging (e.g. Short rice cultivars) which withstand strong winds during the sensitive stage of crop growth 5. Development of cultivars resistant to climate change; adopting new farm techniques that respond to the management of crops under stressful conditions, plant pests and disease 6. Development of capacity building of persons involved in research on agromet service and farmers as well. 7. Development of crop weather models for Agro-meteorological advisory service 8. Exchange of data and Agricultural Meteorological knowledge sharing between members countries and also the Inter-Regional exchange of these 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 25 materials

26 Thank You 9/30/16 Bangladesh Rice Research Institute 26